The Good News thread, local jobs, economy etc

[Zingari]

Yet another massive fall in unemployment today. This is the most vibrant economy and jobs market I can remember for a long time in the UK.

the unemployment rate is up to 7.2% isn't it ?

 

 

LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Britain's unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in the three months to December, further supporting the Bank of England's message that it was in no rush to raise interest rates.

The jobless rate edged up to 7.2 percent in the three months to December compared with 7.1 percent in the three months to November, the Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday.

The number was higher than a forecast of 7.1 percent in a Reuters poll

 

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-unemployment-unexpectedly-edges-three-093006808.html

[MooseBreath]

Yahoo finance? I think that is genuinely written by monkeys

[Zingari]

Yahoo finance? I think that is genuinely written by monkeys

please explain how a rise in unemployment from 7.1% to 7.2 % becomes a "massive fall in unemployment" ?

it can't really be described as a massive anything

 

i'm still not getting my best party time frocks out just yet if you don't mind .

[MooseBreath]

Yahoo have got the numbers confused. Try looking at a respectable news service. It fell by 125k

Edited 19 February 2014 by MooseBreath

[Zingari]

Yahoo have got the numbers confused. Try looking at a respectable news service

it's taken straight from Reuters ain't it?

[MooseBreath]

Sorry yeah the percentage did go up but the number dropped by 125k

[Alf Bentley]

Yahoo finance? I think that is genuinely written by monkeys

 

Funny, because the FT and the Torygraph are using the same figures...

 

please explain how a rise in unemployment from 7.1% to 7.2 % becomes a "massive fall in unemployment" ?

it can't really be described as a massive anything

 

i'm still not getting my best party time frocks out just yet if you don't mind .

 

Thankfully, the good old left-wing BBC is on hand to clarify...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26255696 (see the Anthony Reuben insert)

 

So, as I understand it...

July-Sept: 7.6%

Sept-Nov: 7.1%

Oct-Dec: 7.2%

 

Comparing the last 2 figures would place too much statistical emphasis on the month of December, so a better comparison is to compare the 1st to the 3rd figure (3 completely different months). So, the trend over 6 months is still downward, but the fall in unemployment seems to be slowing... 

Edited 19 February 2014 by Alf Bentley

[Zingari]

Funny, because the FT and the Torygraph are using the same figures...

 

 

Thankfully, the good old left-wing BBC is on hand to clarify...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26255696 (see the Anthony Reuben insert)

 

So, as I understand it...

July-Sept: 7.6%

Sept-Nov: 7.1%

Oct-Dec: 7.2%

 

Comparing the last 2 figures would place too much statistical emphasis on the month of December, so a better comparison is to compare the 1st to the 3rd figure (3 completely different months). So, the trend over 6 months is still downward, but the fall in unemployment seems to be slowing... 

That's fine , Alf , but a small rise is  hardly Moosey's  "massive fall in unemployment". At best it's a slight fall over a 6 month period .

It's been through  1000 RPM spin to call it that .

 

Party-time frocks are staying in the wardrobe for the time being   

[MooseBreath]

Interesting that the percentage has gone up despite the large fall. Must have been a large increase in the pool of workers which goes against left wing claims of number rigging

[Alf Bentley]

That's fine , Alf , but a small rise is  hardly Moosey's  "massive fall in unemployment". At best it's a slight fall over a 6 month period .

It's been through  1000 RPM spin to call it that .

 

Party-time frocks are staying in the wardrobe for the time being   

 

I agree, Zinger (I may call you Zinger, may I, or do I have to call you "Sir Zinger"?  )

 

Unemployment reached a very high level indeed and has now fallen back significantly, but not massively from that level.... 

 

The bods who should know seem to think that the fall in unemployment is now slowing, but that it's too early to tell about that. The next few months should show whether this is a genuine slowing/reversal of the trend or a blip.

 

Meanwhile, although inflation is falling and real incomes are inching up, real incomes are still rising by less than inflation, so people are STILL getting worse off, just a bit more slowly...

 

Interesting that the percentage has gone up despite the large fall. Must have been a large increase in the pool of workers which goes against left wing claims of number rigging

 

The main BBC article (see previous link) seems to confirm that, as there has been an increase in employment to over 30m. However, the number of people classified as "economically inactive" has remained stagnant. I'm not sure what the explanation for that is. More married women/mothers looking for work, possibly? Higher net immigration? 

Edited 19 February 2014 by Alf Bentley

[MooseBreath]

Maybe there has indeed been a large influx from Romania and Bulgaria. Would be interesting to know where the increase comes from

[Alf Bentley]

Maybe there has indeed been a large influx from Romania and Bulgaria. Would be interesting to know where the increase comes from

 

The Romanians and Bulgarians weren't allowed free access to the UK labour market until January, though, were they. So, presumably any impact from that hasn't shown up in the stats yet (the latest stats only run to December).

 

One thing that I noticed is that record numbers of women are now in employment. So, particularly with declining real living standards and the "Help to Buy" mortgage incentive scheme, maybe a lot of women who were previously stay-at-home Mums/wives are now getting jobs either to counteract declining living standards or to get on the housing ladder before the "Right to Buy" scheme is scaled back or cancelled (there have been rumours that might happen to counteract the risk of a housing market bubble).

 

Will be interesting to see how the experts explain these stats - and how they move over the coming months.

[MooseBreath]

Looking at the ons release, more women joining the labour force is a long standing trend, going back a couple of decade (while for men it's the oppo)

[Zingari]

UK unemployment falls       

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26255696

 

Sorry 

 

UK unemployment rises unexpectedly to 7.2%      

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/21c8793c-994b-11e3-91cd-00144feab7de.html#axzz2tmSZ8Uil

 

no hang on !!

 

UK unemployment continues to fall with record numbers of women in work      

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/19/unemployment-continues-to-fall-jobless-rate

 

 

Oh dear just a minute     

 

 

UK unemployment jumps to 7.2%

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-unemployment-jumps-to-72-9138115.html

Edited 19 February 2014 by Zingari

[Smudge]

Doesn't look particularly impressive to me

 

 

By comparison to Germany

 

US Unemployed has dropped from 9.9% to 6.7% over the same period

[Smudge]

UK unemployment falls       

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26255696

 

Sorry 

 

UK unemployment rises unexpectedly to 7.2%      

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/21c8793c-994b-11e3-91cd-00144feab7de.html#axzz2tmSZ8Uil

 

no hang on !!

 

UK unemployment continues to fall with record numbers of women in work      

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/19/unemployment-continues-to-fall-jobless-rate

 

 

Oh dear just a minute     

 

 

UK unemployment jumps to 7.2%

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/uk-unemployment-jumps-to-72-9138115.html

Alf had it right, the increase is from November to December the fall is from the end of the last quarter Oct - Dec compared with the previous one. 

[MooseBreath]

Slightly odd comparison there, the uk has gone from close to 9% down to around 7% on a like for like basis

[davieG]

The number of people claiming Jobseekers’ Allowance in Leicestershire rose by 549 last month.

Figures released today showed the claimant count for the county increased by 3.4 per cent to 16,608 between December and January.

It follows the ending of temporary contracts to cover the Christmas rush in shops, warehouses, hotels and restaurants.

In December, the claimant count fell by 453 to 16,059, its lowest level in almost five years.

George Cowcher, chief executive of Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Leicestershire Chamber of Commerce, said: "We usually see an increase in the number of claimants in January as seasonal contracts come to an end and people start claiming JSA again, but it’s pleasing to see that the number of claimants in January 2014 was significantly lower than it was in January 2013, which highlights just how much progress the economy in Leicestershire has made over the past 12 months."

Read more: http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/Leicestershire-dole-queue-grows-549/story-20658106-detail/story.html#ixzz2tmbx9V6s

[Zingari]

Alf had it right, the increase is from November to December the fall is from the end of the last quarter Oct - Dec compared with the previous one. 

yes it could be , but why was the increase  described as "unexpected" then ? surely if it's to do with seasonal adjustment , it's not unexpected is it ? 

and just how it's being touted by some as a "massive fall in unemployment" seems incredible .

 

edit;

the point i'm really trying to make is the obvious spin that's being worked here 

Edited 19 February 2014 by Zingari

[Guest MattP]

 

The number of people claiming Jobseekers’ Allowance in Leicestershire rose by 549 last month.

Figures released today showed the claimant count for the county increased by 3.4 per cent to 16,608 between December and January.

It follows the ending of temporary contracts to cover the Christmas rush in shops, warehouses, hotels and restaurants.

In December, the claimant count fell by 453 to 16,059, its lowest level in almost five years.

George Cowcher, chief executive of Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Leicestershire Chamber of Commerce, said: "We usually see an increase in the number of claimants in January as seasonal contracts come to an end and people start claiming JSA again, but it’s pleasing to see that the number of claimants in January 2014 was significantly lower than it was in January 2013, which highlights just how much progress the economy in Leicestershire has made over the past 12 months."

 

 

So if you are genuinely looking for work (proven by the fact you'll take a temp contract) you can sign on and receive benefits as per normal whilst looking for work again. Exactly how the system should be.

 

Be interesting to see how Ken tries to spins that one.

Edited 19 February 2014 by MattP

[Zingari]

So if you are genuinely looking for work (proven by the fact you'll take a temp contract) you can sign on and receive benefits as per normal whilst looking for work again. Exactly how the system should be.

 

Be interesting to see how Ken tries to spins that one.

i really don't think it's Ken putting spin on stuff that's the big concern 

[Smudge]

yes it could be , but why was the increase  described as "unexpected" then ? surely if it's to do with seasonal adjustment , it's not unexpected is it ? 

and just how it's being touted by some as a "massive fall in unemployment" seems incredible .

 

edit;

the point i'm really trying to make is the obvious spin that's being worked here 

I guess it was unexpected because the overall trend was downwards. I agree trying to understand what really is going on isn't going to come from biased media.

[Zingari]

I guess it was unexpected because the overall trend was downwards. I agree trying to understand what really is going on isn't going to come from biased media.

Ain't that the truth 

And don't think for one minute the BBC doesn't fall into that category too.

Edited 19 February 2014 by Zingari

[Smudge]

Slightly odd comparison there, the uk has gone from close to 9% down to around 7% on a like for like basis

Not according to the ONS for May 2010

 

Labour market statistics

May 2010

Date: 12 May 2010

Coverage: United Kingdom Theme: Labour Market

For January to March 2010:

The employment rate was 72.0 per cent and there were 28.83 million employed people.

The unemployment rate was 8.0 per cent and there were 2.51 million unemployed people.

The inactivity rate was 21.5 per cent and there were 8.17 million working age inactive people.

Total pay (including bonuses) rose by 4.0 per cent on a year earlier.

Regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 1.9 per cent on a year earlier.

 

What I can't figure out is how over a million more people have been employed yet the total unemployed hasn't changed by more than 150,000 over this period unless the population has increased but not working. Something is not jiving here.

 

Edit, actually that statistics was published in May so was for the early part of 2010, the following period the unemployment number was 7.8% which is when the Cameron ministry took over. So in actual fact to compare their 0.6% drop to the German or US number isn't that impressive, maybe I should compare it to the French if that makes us happier. 

 

BTW I am as much in favour of conservative policies as most like minded people. Zingy thinks I'm just to the right of Attila The Hun.

 

I just like the facts to be as real as I can understand them without spouting party dogma.

Edited 19 February 2014 by Smudge

[Zingari]

Not according to the ONS for May 2010

 

Labour market statistics

May 2010

Date: 12 May 2010

Coverage: United Kingdom Theme: Labour Market

For January to March 2010:

The employment rate was 72.0 per cent and there were 28.83 million employed people.

The unemployment rate was 8.0 per cent and there were 2.51 million unemployed people.

The inactivity rate was 21.5 per cent and there were 8.17 million working age inactive people.

Total pay (including bonuses) rose by 4.0 per cent on a year earlier.

Regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose by 1.9 per cent on a year earlier.

 

What I can't figure out is how over a million more people have been employed yet the total unemployed hasn't changed by more than 150,000 over this period unless the population has increased but not working. Something is not jiving here.

 

Edit, actually that statistics was published in May so was for the early part of 2010, the following period the unemployment number was 7.8% which is when the Cameron ministry took over. So in actual fact to compare their 0.6% drop to the German or US number isn't that impressive, maybe I should compare it to the French if that makes us happier. 

 

BTW I am as much in favour of conservative policies as most like minded people. Zingy thinks I'm just to the right of Attila The Hun.

 

I just like the facts to be as real as I can understand them without spouting party dogma.

No  I don't

 

 

 

i think you're well to the right of him

 

 

seriously though , you're right , it doesn't seem to add up  at all  

Edited 19 February 2014 by Zingari