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WigstonWanderer

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About WigstonWanderer

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  1. Just had a look at the form table this half of the season (15 matches). We’re 11th which is disappointing, but we are above Spurs.
  2. Points at the Emirates are as rare as hen’s teeth, so can’t really grumble. Shame we shat the bed in the last 10 mins though. They were on their backs, legs ackimbo, but we stood around trying to get a bit of fluff out of our navel.
  3. Love the Guardian, but this has to be a joke surely.
  4. The Swedish experiment doesn’t seem to have helped their economy but has cost lives compared with their neighbours. This article taken from the New York Times. Sweden Has Become the World’s Cautionary Tale Its decision to carry on in the face of the pandemic has yielded a surge of deaths without sparing its economy from damage — a red flag as the United States and Britain move to lift lockdowns. Image Sweden largely avoided imposing prohibitions. The government allowed restaurants, gyms, shops, playgrounds and most schools to remain open.Credit...Johan Nilsson/EPA, via Shutterstock By Peter S. Goodman July 7, 2020Updated 12:06 p.m. ET LONDON — Ever since the coronavirus emerged in Europe, Sweden has captured international attention by conducting an unorthodox, open-air experiment. It has allowed the world to examine what happens in a pandemic when a government allows life to carry on largely unhindered. This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better. “They literally gained nothing,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. “It’s a self-inflicted wound, and they have no economic gains.” The results of Sweden’s experience are relevant well beyond Scandinavian shores. In the United States, where the virus is spreading with alarming speed, many states have — at President Trump’s urging — avoided lockdowns or lifted them prematurely on the assumption that this would foster economic revival, allowing people to return to workplaces, shops and restaurants. In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson — previously hospitalized with Covid-19 — reopened pubs and restaurants last weekend in a bid to restore normal economic life. Implicit in these approaches is the assumption that governments must balance saving lives against the imperative to spare jobs, with the extra health risks of rolling back social distancing potentially justified by a resulting boost to prosperity. But Sweden’s grim result — more death, and nearly equal economic damage — suggests that the supposed choice between lives and paychecks is a false one: A failure to impose social distancing can cost lives and jobs at the same time. Latest Updates: Economy 17m ago Sweden’s pandemic response is a cautionary tale for the rest of the world. 2h ago Pandemic lockdowns hasten infrastructure work. 4h ago Delta, United and Southwest sign deal for Treasury loans. See more updates More live coverage: Global Sweden put stock in the sensibility of its people as it largely avoided imposing government prohibitions. The government allowed restaurants, gyms, shops, playgrounds and most schools to remain open. By contrast, Denmark and Norway opted for strict quarantines, banning large groups and locking down shops and restaurants. More than three months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, seven times more than Finland and six times more than Denmark. Image Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40 percent more coronavirus-related deaths than the United States.Credit...Jonathan Nackstrand/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images The elevated death toll resulting from Sweden’s approach has been clear for many weeks. What is only now emerging is how Sweden, despite letting its economy run unimpeded, has still suffered business-destroying, prosperity-diminishing damage, and at nearly the same magnitude of its neighbors. Sweden’s central bank expects its economy to contract by 4.5 percent this year, a revision from a previously expected gain of 1.3 percent. The unemployment rate jumped to 9 percent in May from 7.1 percent in March. “The overall damage to the economy means the recovery will be protracted, with unemployment remaining elevated,” Oxford Economics concluded in a recent research note. This is more or less how damage caused by the pandemic has played out in Denmark, where the central bank expects that the economy will shrink 4.1 percent this year, and where joblessness has edged up to 5.6 percent in May from 4.1 percent in March. In short, Sweden suffered a vastly higher death rate while failing to collect on the expected economic gains. The coronavirus does not stop at national borders. Despite the government’s decision to allow the domestic economy to roll on, Swedish businesses are stuck with the same conditions that produced recession everywhere else. And Swedish people responded to the fear of the virus by limiting their shopping — not enough to prevent elevated deaths, but enough to produce a decline in business activity. Here is one takeaway with potentially universal import: It is simplistic to portray government actions such as quarantines as the cause of economic damage. The real culprit is the virus itself. From Asia to Europe to the Americas, the risks of the pandemic have disrupted businesses while prompting people to avoid shopping malls and restaurants, regardless of official policy. Image Sweden’s central bank expects its economy to contract by 4.5 percent this year, a revision from a previously expected gain of 1.3 percent. Credit...Jonathan Nackstrand/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Sweden is exposed to the vagaries of global trade. Once the pandemic was unleashed, it was certain to suffer the economic consequences, said Mr. Kirkegaard, the economist. “The Swedish manufacturing sector shut down when everyone else shut down because of the supply chain situation,” he said. “This was entirely predictable.” What remained in the government’s sphere of influence was how many people would die. “There is just no questioning and no willingness from the Swedish government to really change tack, until it’s too late,” Mr. Kirkegaard said. “Which is astonishing, given that it’s been clear for quite some time that the economic gains that they claim to have gotten from this are just nonexistent.” Norway, on the other hand, was not only quick to impose an aggressive lockdown, but early to relax it as the virus slowed, and as the government ramped up testing. It is now expected to see a more rapid economic turnaround. Norway’s central bank predicts that its mainland economy — excluding the turbulent oil and gas sector — will contract by 3.9 percent this year. That amounts to a marked improvement over the 5.5 percent decline expected in the midst of the lockdown. Sweden’s laissez faire approach does appear to have minimized the economic damage compared with its neighbors in the first three months of the year, according to an assessment by the International Monetary Fund. But that effect has worn off as the force of the pandemic has swept through the global economy, and as Swedish consumers have voluntarily curbed their shopping anyway. Researchers at the University of Copenhagen gained access to credit data from Danske Bank, one of the largest in Scandinavia. They studied spending patterns from mid-March, when Denmark put the clamps on the economy, to early April. The pandemic prompted Danes to reduce their spending 29 percent in that period, the study concluded. During the same weeks, consumers in Sweden — where freedom reigned — reduced their spending 25 percent. Strikingly, older people — those over 70 — reduced their spending more in Sweden than in Denmark, perhaps concerned that the business-as-usual circumstances made going out especially risky. Collectively, Scandinavian consumers are expected to continue spending far more robustly than in the United States, said Thomas Harr, global head of research at Danske Bank, emphasizing those nations’ generous social safety nets, including national health care systems. Americans, by contrast, tend to rely on their jobs for health care, making them more cautious about their health and their spending during the pandemic, knowing that hospitalization can be a gateway to financial calamity. “It’s very much about the welfare state,” Mr. Harr said of Scandinavian countries. “You’re not as concerned about catching the virus, because you know that, if you do, the state is paying for health care.” Peter S. Goodman is a London-based European economics correspondent. He was previously a national economic correspondent in New York. He has also worked at The Washington Post as a China correspondent, and was global editor in chief of the International Business Times. @petersgoodman
  5. A bit more info on the spike in cases in Victoria, Australia for anyone that’s interested. Genomic tracking has been employed and it suggests that the surge in cases was caused by a breach in security by people employed to ensure the integrity of the hotel quarantine for returned travellers. There are allegations of security staff having sex with guests and people mixing in each other’s rooms. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-02/victoria-hotel-quarantine-breaches-inquiry-launched/12414612 They have launched an inquiry to establish what happened. If these allegations are true, some people need to go to jail, and be named and shamed. They will have directly or indirectly cost billions to the economy as well as an as yet unknown number of lives. Prior to this Victoria had clocked up days with zero new cases. Latest figures are over 100 The border between NSW and Victoria will be closed from tonight, a total length of ~ 1,000 km. It contains towns that straddle the border to add complexity. Edit: The whole of metropolitan Melbourne to be locked down from tomorrow. Very disappointing. 191 cases in Victoria in the last 24 hrs.
  6. I’ve been consistently sceptical about the viability of a strategy that relies on herd immunity, and still believe it was a bad call to make at the early stages of the pandemic when very little was known about the nature of the infection. A particularly poor strategy when health authorities, including the UK Chief Scientific Officer, were saying that at least 60% of the population would need to be infected, with a fatality rate of over 0.5%, leading to potential mortality counts of over 200k. Nevertheless, I don’t think it can be entirely dismissed, and I for one would be delighted if it turns out to be a “get out of jail free” card. Firstly, I’m not convinced that the antibody tests are reliable (genuinely don’t know). Does everyone who has had the infection produce antibodies? If so, how long for? Presumably the test needs to be administered during an “antibody window” to be effective. This means that more people could have been infected than actually test positive. I understand that even if a previously infected person no longer has antibodies, other parts of the immune system may still provide protection. The science seems to be inconclusive at this point. So overall, more people may have some degree of immunity though previous infection than test positive for antibodies. Secondly, some research suggests that the Herd Immunity Threshold may be far less than that usually calculated when immunity is conferred by vaccination. A paper was posted on this subject some time back in this thread or a predecessor. The paper argued that when herd immunity is attained through natural spread of the infection, the most susceptible spreaders are rendered immune first, leaving only those who are less likely to spread the infection. The effect is to bring down the effective Herd Immunity Threshold, perhaps as low as 10% or 20%. If this is the case, it might mean that places like Sweden, New York, London, etc may actually have approached herd immunity, pretty much accidentally. I say accidentally because at the time the strategy was being considered or put into effect, the threshold was still thought to be be > 60%. I hope this is the case, but there are a few caveats. - Does infection confer immunity? Almost certainly. - How long does immunity last? No one seems to know for sure. - How pronounced is the effect described above that reduces the threshold? Again, more research required, or perhaps a back fitting of data once the whole thing has played out. Personally I am still glad to be in Western Australia where at least for now the virus seems to have been all but eradicated. Nevertheless perhaps this thing can play out without the huge toll that once seemed likely.
  7. Yes, I can see that they’d rather not lock down the whole state, but unfortunately if they delay community infection will probably spread outside the currently locked area before they realise. Hopefully it will stay contained, and there won’t be too much fatality. As I mentioned earlier, I think treatments have improved since earlier in the year and the case fatality rate doesn’t seem to be so bad now.
  8. This has the potential to get quite serious. They’d probably be best to go to a Victoria wide lockdown straight away. Experience elsewhere shows that early action is key to retaining control. Waiting until it seems reasonable is too late. Which state are you in?
  9. Despite a sharp increase worldwide in the rate of infections over the last couple of months, there seems to have been no corresponding increase so far in the death rate, even allowing for a lag. Some of this is probably explained by increased testing rates, but I do think that the medical profession have learned a great deal about this infection and are now better able to treat it.
  10. Thought you might have been after a carpenter
  11. Vardy has hopefully got the monkey off his back and can kick on to the golden boot. Quite a promising performance showing more dimensions to the style of play and possible formation options. Bennett seemed quite solid to me, and also thought Justin is looking more assured despite a couple of careless passes. Good to see Barnes getting involved in play again. Champions League back on Edit: I think Chilwell has generally played well since the restart, but he is frustratingly one footed, more so than any player I can remember watching. It permeates everything he does and makes him too predictable going forward. He really needs to practice with his right foot over and over to get to the next level. Hope he’s OK for the rest of the season.
  12. I understand they intend to test everyone in the locked buildings. Hope they get on top of it soon. Justifies the reluctance to open borders.
  13. How the **** are we still 3rd in the table? Probably not for long
  14. I get the impression that this drug is more of a scam anyway. Hugely expensive and not very effective. Hyped up so Gilead can get a pay off. The Dexamethasone result seemed more exciting and is a older cheap drug.
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