Fox on the Rox

Don't get too excited, my inside info is that it's Martin.

No been around for a while so only just seen this. This is my understanding of how it works. In the case of JJ everything is locked in apart from Leicester's decision whether to exercise the option. Where it's an obligation, it is usually conditional and the loaning club has no decision to make if the condition(s) is/are met e.g. a condition could be that if the player makes more than 20 starts for the loaning club the loaning club must buy the player, or it could be that if the loaning club is promoted they must buy the player. This is regardless of whether they actually want to sign the player at that point. That's why we see behaviours like a loan player not being played once they're a match away from triggering the obligation if the club don't want to be contractually obliged to buy. Where it's an option, there are no conditions, it's purely the decision of the loaning club whether to buy the player at the pre-agreed price or to walk away from the deal. The player signs up to the deal when they sign the loan deal, they have no choice at the end of the loan, they're already committed. Likewise the loaning club have no choice, they signed up to the deal when the loan deal was signed, they agreed to sell to the loaning club for an agreed price (they could of course have conditions that increase the price if for example the loaning the team are promoted). So, it's not possible for another club to come in and gazump the loaning club nor is it possible for the player to decide they don't like the deal after all. Sadly for JJ, he's stuck with it if Leicester want to buy him. He's probably hoping Leicester buy him and immediately cash in by selling him on for more than they paid because they'll need the money.

You're usually spot on, but on this occasion we'll have to disagree.

James has already signed. He signed to come here on loan. The option to buy is our option, he's already agreed to it. Sadly for him it's not his choice now. That's how it works.

Yep.

And we signed him when we already had Nelson but weren't prepared to play him. Make it make sense!

Well, if that's the case it certainly wasn't all of them, maybe a 'select' group.

Just listened to the pod, can't disagree with much but, the London Christmas trip wasn't after the QPR game, it was the previous week.

Nailed it mate. The guy's a weasel.

Can you imagine being a young player who's been literally knocking on his door and reading this?

No

He could've been an outlier in terms of age. Fans at Doncaster couldn't believe he was only 18 when he played for them. He could still be an outlier in terms of achievement. He just needs the opportunity. Maybe watch him play if he gets allowed a loan in Jan. Also, humans make decisions for all sorts of illogical and wrong reasons, and stick with them too.

Depends what price you think Wout would get. Could probably have got £10M for Nelson in the summer.

Interesting theory. I used the same terminology about how we hold young players to ransom on the Development Squads thread. Surely he's a different kettle of fish though? He has enough experience and a high enough profile outside the club that he won't have trouble finding suitors if he does choose to run his contract down. Currently he's a depreciating asset but all the club needs to do is play him and he will shoot up in value. Even if he's not great, clubs have seen what he can do and at least some will have faith they can get the best out of him even if we can't. There were strong rumours of a PL bid late in the window though, so if it is a stand off it's going to be a case of who blinks first. If I were him, I wouldn't be giving in, the club have given him no reason to, he needs out for the sake of his career.

Unfortunately you've got this backwards. At their level it's not carrot, it's stick. It will be that they won't get out on loan or be around the first team unless they sign. Lads their age and stage most likely won't think they can risk that. They don't have the power in the club v player relationship. Outside of the LCFC bubble their profile won't be high. They can't raise their profile if they're not playing. They won't make international squads etc etc. Once they've signed of course there's no guarantee either, but if they don't, they can be confident they'll be consigned to the u21s. Effectively young players are held to ransom to sign. Monga probably being a rare exception.

I imagine Rudkin turned down offers because the thought, like the rest of us, that he was going to play, smash it and become a £30M + asset. Marti has scuppered that and left Rudkin in a bind. I bet he's praying for a crisis at CB more than anyone. If Nelson doesn't get in, and he probably won't, Rudkin is left in a difficult position. Of his own making of course. At what point does he accept he ballsed up, cut his losses and sell? The sensible option would be January or at least the summer. He will probably take a gamble though and hold on, which will either pay off massively if Nelson gets in and does the business, or mean he goes on a free and we're at the mercy of a tribunal for compensation. Meanwhile, there's a talented young man having his career stiffled. How's he feeling about the club now do you think? If he's any ambition he'll be pushing for a move away soon as possible.

Anyone who has the interests of the player at heart.

Hopefully, for his sake, it's Nelson.

I think that was still the hope deep into the window but, it did become apparent that wasn't going to happen and at that point he should have been let out on loan elsewhere in the Championship. There would've been plenty of clubs delighted to get him and play him every week. Yes, it would've been a risk. He could be helping a rival to succeed, we could get injuries or suspensions at CB but we're seeing the biggest risk of all coming to fruition - squandering a season of his development is robbing us of his value and, even more importantly, how is he going be feeling about the club now? Persuading him to sign a new contract is going to be an massively uphill struggle.

What's your guess?

Exactly

Yeah, sadly nobody wanted him. Should've let Nelson go on loan once it became clear Faes wasn't going anywhere and 'experience' was going to be the top criteria for selection.

More chance of that than getting on the pitch it seems!

But sadly England u21 have dropped Nelson. I'm sure he'll get back in once he starts playing, though he'll probably be at another club by then. We've gone from having three regulars in that age group to none. Shows how we support our players' ambitions...not.

Us not playing him has lost him his place in the England set up he's been part of since u17 (Scotland at u16). I'm not sure there's any coming back from that tbh even if we play him later on. He's surely gonna want to be out of here come January.