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Carter The Boss

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About Carter The Boss

  • Rank
    Reserve Team
  • Birthday 09/03/1982

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    K block, Row N or Chalfont
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    Football, Motorbikes, Food.
  • Fan Since
    My Dad told me I had to move out if i didn't. I was 2.

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  1. Carter The Boss

    Expected Goals

    Saw this on MOTD the other day and wasn't sure about it, but according to the website it looks good for us http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/41822455 Leicester may already be on to their second permanent manager of the season but, despite a perception they have struggled following a winless run of six league games which led to Craig Shakespeare's departure, scratch beneath the surface and the signs are actually encouraging for new boss Claude Puel. Not only have the Foxes taken seven points from their past three league matches, including a win and a draw in the Frenchman's two games in charge, but expected goals tells us they are performing better than their overall results suggest. And that is one of the strengths of the expected goals metric - it can highlight underlying performance, both good and bad. For example, in 2015-16 Juventus won only three of their opening 10 Serie A games but their expected goal difference throughout that run was much higher than their actual goal difference. That suggested they were dominating matches and creating chances - they just weren't taking them. Over time, their actual goal difference moved closer to their expected goal difference and they eventually strolled to the title. Leicester's stats tells a similar story. Despite only being the eighth highest scorers in the division, expected goals tells us they are creating the highest-quality chances in the league. Opta determines that 14.8% of Leicester's openings ought to end in goals, based on how good an opportunity each one was. Champions Chelsea, by comparison, would only be expected to convert 8.4% of theirs. That is not to say Leicester are the best attacking team in the league, of course. Manchester City have the highest expected goals total, meaning they ought to be scoring more than any other side. But when the Foxes do create a chance, it is generally a good one. And it is not only in attacking areas that Leicester are performing well. They are the division's second-best side when it comes to restricting opponents to low-quality chances. So, teams might be scoring against Leicester, but the chances they create are generally not particularly good ones. The Foxes would be expected to concede from just 7.3% of the shots they face - only Tottenham fare better in this regard. Leicester, then, do not allow opponents many clear chances and they create really good openings. Not a bad recipe for a new manager to work with.