Going back in time 8 weeks and then looking at some statistics

[DeepBlueSomething]

This is the Man City post-match thread.  Pretty much 10 pages of "we're back" "never doubted you Claudio", "Vardy is amazeballs" etc. Man City

 

Three days later and we have the post-Bournemouth thread: Bournemouth

 

Needless to say, the two threads are somewhat polar opposites in how they view our team.  It's a bit depressing that most of the Bournemouth thread would pretty much match the post-Burnley thread too. Not a lot seems to have changed in all that time.

 

Another interesting read is the actual Man City match thread itself. Man City Match Thread as there are a few posters on there (on a scan through) that seemed to think it was all a bit "Emperor's New Clothes" and the performance wasn't actually that good.  Those posters got a lot of abuse in that thread. It's kind of hard to quantify it by numbers but there is some merit in those opinions:  On one hand a 4-2 win is great on the other, 22% possession is pushing even the margins of our extreme low possession stats. We had 11 shots and 6 on target in the match and they had 19 shots with 4 on target. Although we won, those numbers are pretty extraordinary and suggest we scored with 36% of our shots. That is pretty much double the ratio we managed in our extraordinary season last year and more like treble this year's - hardly sustainable and indicative that we were more than a little bit lucky on the day (thanks to the calamity goalkeeper mainly).  Likewise Man City, if they'd stuck to their normal 16% conversion rate this season would have expected to score 3. You always get anomalous results that buck a trend and disprove stats (pretty much our entire season last year did this!) but over the long term it seems that results will largely revert to the norm (if they didn't, the bookmakers would very quickly go out of business).

 

For comparison, Chelsea are currently on a 19% conversion rate this year. 48 goals from 248 chances. We've only scored 24 from 174 - just under 14%. We just aren't creating enough chances with our style of play and we're not scoring enough of the chances we do create. With last year's ratio we'd probably have another 6 or 7 goals this season and those would probably have been crucial in a few of the games (not the ones we lost 4-0 though, of course).

 

Summary?  We're not as good as last year ;-)

 

[DeepBlueSomething]

Interesting article on the way our passing has changed from December: http://statsbomb.com/2016/12/leicesters-drastically-changing-passing-patterns/

[filbertway]

I stand by everything I said :D

 

On 12/11/2016 at 08:57, filbertway said:

Very clinical. I can't get over how bad man city were. They must have given us the ball about 50-100 times during the game. 

I doubt we will have an easier game all season, amazing in front of goal though. Mahrez is such a filth box.

[Ted Maul]

Was that the game where threads/posts sprang up everywhere telling everyone who had criticised to hang their heads in shame? 

[Stadt]

Last season our chance conversion rate was fantastic because we were scoring goals on the counter so naturally we had more space for Vardy to get in behind in good goalscoring positions. As we all know teams now deny us that space so naturally we're playing slower and against packed boxes where we're struggling to create good chances. Conversely, Man City and Pep gave us the space we needed to hit them on the break and we put 4 past them with Vardy getting a hat-trick. We need to be retain the ball better, our paling accuracy was a tragic 56% against Burnley which denotes we're just hoofing or playing too hurriedly and it's clearly not working. There's absolutely no structure in or out of possession which is what Ranieri should be correcting.

[fazzyfox]

The conditions that day made us revert to a style of hitting firm early passes and looking for Vardy for a quick break rather than take too many irrelevant touches or risky back passes, Just 3 or four passes from winning the ball to getting a shot in, we looked like last seasons side although Man City helped to encourage that by playing so high and coming at us (and having players in strange positions looking lost).  I was encouraged by what we'd done but wondered if it was down to adjusting to the conditions. That now looks likely as we've reverted back to....well, something unlike the Man City performance though I don't know what it is or what they're trying to do.

[jammie82uk]

3 hours ago, DeepBlueSomething said:

Interesting article on the way our passing has changed from December: http://statsbomb.com/2016/12/leicesters-drastically-changing-passing-patterns/

That's a brilliant read, certainly makes a lot of sense 

[norwichfox]

2 hours ago, Ted Maul said:

Was that the game where threads/posts sprang up everywhere telling everyone who had criticised to hang their heads in shame? 

Not sure, but I've sicked up the Humble Pie I ate in THAT thread.....