Foxestalk 2017 General Election Final poll

[Guest MattP]

Just now, Alf Bentley said:

Used not to be left-leaning. Didn't the 2015 poll show a fairly even outcome - even a slight lead for the Tories, or am I misremembering?

 

I assume that a majority of FT posters are younger than you, never mind me, so that might explain the change.

Not certain, but I thought Labour won that as well.

[Alf Bentley]

12 minutes ago, MattP said:

Not certain, but I thought Labour won that as well.

 

Nope. Found it: 

 

The FT poll was astonishingly close to the national result in 2015: 36% Con, 29% Lab, 12% UKIP, 7% LD, Green 4%

 

So, looks like we're in for a Corbyn landslide tonight.....

 

 

 

 

...... I don't think! 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Nope. Found it: 

 

The FT poll was astonishingly close to the national result in 2015: 36% Con, 29% Lab, 12% UKIP, 7% LD, Green 4%

 

So, looks like we're in for a Corbyn landslide tonight....

 

...... I don't think! 

Wow. Shows what a selective memory I have. 

 

I blame the departure of Moosebreath and his 163 accounts.

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, The Blur said:

Hahaha, are secret Tory voters that private that they do not announce their voting preferences on an online football forum in an anonymous poll??

No necessarily. My observation (and there for my opinion only) Labour voters tend to be more vocal and passionate about there part and therefore I would assume more likely to participate in silly polls even if they are anonymous. 

 

although in the real world there is an argument that the polls have swayed not because there is more support for Corbyn but because party A because more enthused and vocal as things start to go "good" and therefor has the effect of Part yB less likely to respond to polls and thus closing the "gap" in the election.

 

There isn't an increase in support. Part A still has the same number of supporters (if a tiny more that won't make any difference) and party B also the same.

 

And that is the argument a lot of people are making. There has been some positive news recently for Corbyn and therefore Labour have become more vocal and interested in participating in those Polls. Whereas Conservative supports are less interested.

 

Although all this could be B/S we will find out tomorrrow 

 

 

[Alf Bentley]

17 minutes ago, MattP said:

Wow. Shows what a selective memory I have. 

 

I blame the departure of Moosebreath and his 163 accounts.

 

 

 

Be scared, Matt. Be very scared.

The country is being taken over by swarms of Marxist students and unwashed lefties.

 

 

 

 

 

Might as well try to get you scared now - because I don't think you will be scared after 10pm.... 

[The Blur]

19 minutes ago, Soundman said:

No necessarily. My observation (and there for my opinion only) Labour voters tend to be more vocal and passionate about there part and therefore I would assume more likely to participate in silly polls even if they are anonymous. 

 

although in the real world there is an argument that the polls have swayed not because there is more support for Corbyn but because party A because more enthused and vocal as things start to go "good" and therefor has the effect of Part yB less likely to respond to polls and thus closing the "gap" in the election.

 

There isn't an increase in support. Part A still has the same number of supporters (if a tiny more that won't make any difference) and party B also the same.

 

And that is the argument a lot of people are making. There has been some positive news recently for Corbyn and therefore Labour have become more vocal and interested in participating in those Polls. Whereas Conservative supports are less interested.

 

Although all this could be B/S we will find out tomorrrow 

 

 

 

That is an interesting school of thought however quick fire polls such as ones on here only take few seconds to tick so it is bit difficult to see how Tories voters can be that disinterested that they are not even remotely curious enough to tick and see results anyway.  I would guess that they are annoyed enough with all Corbyn hype on social media and do not want to see the effect of it on polls.  I am voting Labour but likes of Facebook polls run by UniLad  which have a huge amount of support for Labour etc get on my nerves a bit. 

[Webbo]

39 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Nope. Found it: 

 

The FT poll was astonishingly close to the national result in 2015: 36% Con, 29% Lab, 12% UKIP, 7% LD, Green 4%

 

So, looks like we're in for a Corbyn landslide tonight.....

 

 

 

 

...... I don't think! 

It was that poll that made me think that the predictions of Labour being the biggest party might be wrong. The current poll on here worries me slightly I must admit.

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, Webbo said:

It was that poll that made me think that the predictions of Labour being the biggest party might be wrong. The current poll on here worries me slightly I must admit.

 

I'll enjoy your worry while I can. 

I suspect you won't be worrying after 10pm.

 

I reckon there might be a big turnout of young people. particularly students, voting Labour. 

There are online photos of big queues at universities in Norwich. Canterbury and Oxford (though they could all be voting Tory).

However, if it's mainly students it's not going to swing many seats, I think, as unis are mainly in constituencies that are already Labour.

 

The big story tomorrow might be the big divide between the Labour-voting young and the Tory-voting old - and Labour big cities/university towns v. Tory suburbs & struggling former industrial areas (rural parts already being in the Tory column).

If so, there simply aren't enough big city / university town constituencies for Labour to win that way. 

[Carl the Llama]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Not sure I said that.

I know, I was momentarily overcome by the need to make a disingenuous accusatory one-liner (aka my inner Webbo).  Sorry  

[LiberalFox]

It's anger (the young) vs fear (the old) and there are a lot more old than young.

[Voll Blau]

2 hours ago, Soundman said:

No necessarily. My observation (and there for my opinion only) Labour voters tend to be more vocal and passionate about there part and therefore I would assume more likely to participate in silly polls even if they are anonymous. 

 

although in the real world there is an argument that the polls have swayed not because there is more support for Corbyn but because party A because more enthused and vocal as things start to go "good" and therefor has the effect of Part yB less likely to respond to polls and thus closing the "gap" in the election.

 

There isn't an increase in support. Part A still has the same number of supporters (if a tiny more that won't make any difference) and party B also the same.

 

And that is the argument a lot of people are making. There has been some positive news recently for Corbyn and therefore Labour have become more vocal and interested in participating in those Polls. Whereas Conservative supports are less interested.

 

Although all this could be B/S we will find out tomorrrow 

 

 

Think that's definitely the case online. In my experience, the opposite has been true in real life (especially among people who enjoy 'debating' politics with strangers).

[Guest]

18 hours ago, Voll Blau said:

Think that's definitely the case online. In my experience, the opposite has been true in real life (especially among people who enjoy 'debating' politics with strangers).

Apparently it was all B/S the movement was real