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davieG

Technology, Science and the Environment.

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6 hours ago, Buce said:
12 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Though claims like this have been made before, this looks promising. Fusion is so much more advanced and more efficient than what we have now, getting it on-stream may well end up becoming a necessity rather than anything else if global energy demand keeps rising the way it does.

I thought the nuclear plants we have now were already built around fusion reactors and it's cold fusion that we were struggling to pull off, is that wrong then?

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4 minutes ago, Carl the Llama said:

I thought the nuclear plants we have now were already built around fusion reactors and it's cold fusion that we were struggling to pull off, is that wrong then?

The best nuclear plants we have now rely on more and more efficient and safer fission reactions rather than any kind of fusion - the most advanced type right now being the Generation III reactors with Generation IV currently in development. 

 

Fusion would be an order of magnitude better in terms of safety and power generation than any fission reactor, however.

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1 minute ago, leicsmac said:

The best nuclear plants we have now rely on more and more efficient and safer fission reactions rather than any kind of fusion - the most advanced type right now being the Generation III reactors with Generation IV currently in development. 

 

Fusion would be an order of magnitude better in terms of safety and power generation than any fission reactor, however.

Ah yeah, fission not fusion.  I did know that deep down, like way deep down, cheers.

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I used to teach the French Fussion scientists and they were saying the same thing 15 years ago.

 

When we eventually succeed it should mean unlimited and cheap and clean power.

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50 minutes ago, FIF said:

I used to teach the French Fussion scientists and they were saying the same thing 15 years ago.

 

When we eventually succeed it should mean unlimited and cheap and clean power.

They said that when they found North Sea Oil.

 

It'll be bigger profits rather than cheaper fuel.

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3 hours ago, FIF said:

I used to teach the French Fussion scientists and they were saying the same thing 15 years ago.

 

When we eventually succeed it should mean unlimited and cheap and clean power.

Yeah, the many false dawns incline one to be sceptic...though I will be very much glad of the day when we do crack it, because I think we need to.

 

 

2 hours ago, davieG said:

They said that when they found North Sea Oil.

 

It'll be bigger profits rather than cheaper fuel.

I truly hope there weren't scientists saying that oil energy would be clean when we first dug it up? Though there could have been...sigh.

 

Definitely with you on the profit thing but as long as it's clean and everyone gets supplied affordably a little extra $$$ for those who sort it out is alright IMO.

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4 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Yeah, the many false dawns incline one to be sceptic...though I will be very much glad of the day when we do crack it, because I think we need to.

 

 

I truly hope there weren't scientists saying that oil energy would be clean when we first dug it up? Though there could have been...sigh.

 

Definitely with you on the profit thing but as long as it's clean and everyone gets supplied affordably a little extra $$$ for those who sort it out is alright IMO.

They didn't I highlighted cheap and power.

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8 minutes ago, davieG said:

They didn't I highlighted cheap and power.

Ah yes, I see that now. Well, yeah, agree wholeheartedly then.

 

Also speaking of money-grubbing opportunities that shouldn't really be funded by money-grubbers that many have to be anyway:

 

https://www.outerplaces.com/science/item/17778-700-quintillion-dollar-asteroid-space-mining-gold-rush-mars-jupiter

 

I've mentioned this before, but seriously - if $$$ must be your driver to get out there, then fund it with these.

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On 2/19/2018 at 20:04, Buce said:

 

I'm wondering what's going to happen with bigger transport vehicles?

 

I've been looking at buying a campervan recently but with the uncertainty surrounding diesel engines, it might be something of a white elephant with no resale value.

 

Just came across this thread and I'm interested in the same subject. We have a 2010 Vivaro and obviously there will come a day when they try and tax us out of existance. Motorhomes and campers are traditionally long lived, often running to over 20 years old with care, so it is an issue for hundreds of thousands of owners.

 

I wouldn't recommend throwing big wedge at an older diesel right now, although if you are happy to stay out of cities I think you will be ok for a while yet (5-10 years maybe). Fortunately our govt licks corporate butt, and there are huge numbers of owners, so I think we will be slow to get punitive taxes. Bear in mind that campers do low miles, mainly outside the cities, so they are not a huge air pollution problem. An interim purchase might be an idea, with maybe 5 years left in it, depending on your budget. The first proper EV vans should come through later in the year, but obviously a new camper based on one of them will cost a small fortune.

 

We went to Paris last year, and stayed in a great campsite in the Bois de Boulogne, so we got a special sticker based on our emissions rating, about 10 euro, turned out we didn't need it as said site was outside the zone.

 

Obviously the better rating you have the less immediate grief you will get. I think ours is a Euro 4. It is worth checking out the rating any prospective vehicle has, and bear in mind they are different from cars ie Euro 4 on a van isn't the same as Euro 4 on a car, as far as I remember.

 

One more thing, we have a friend who does bespoke conversions and interior mod's, solar panels, re-fits etc. and he generally does free advice. He did my gf's Vivaro out very nicely. She spent 5k on the van and about 5k on the conversion. You get better value buying something already done, but my bird is quite picky! lol

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On 2/19/2018 at 22:10, Buce said:

 

The main concern on the campervan forums is over the possibility of non-commercial diesels being banned altogether or at least taxed to death. 

 

There are some rich folks buyinng 100k diesel rigs at the mo, if they get taxed off the road there will be an almighty kerfuffle. I think the govt will go easy, because they are generally used outside cities and do relatively low mileages.

 

But, as I said, I wouldn't throw big money at an older one, because that is asking for trouble. I have some mates with a lovely Hymer, in great condition, but it is 1995 so I think they are looking at a hit in value. I think they bought at 12k, so it is not a total disaster, but it is safer to have a more modern base vehicle.

 

We used to live in the Congestion charge zone in Surrey, and when it came in there were various gentleman going round trying to buy the older machines which would be liable for a £100 a day charge.

 

We downrated our old Merc van to dodge it, but moved on to the Vivaro when we moved to Leicester. I can't remember what the current £100 a day cut off is in London, but it is a good marker for where the zones in other cities might end up. I checked, and (I think) it is Euro 6 from 2019.

 

Of course, if you aren't bothered about doing cities, and don't live in a city, you can be much more relaxed.

 

One more tip. if you are an old git like me, you have a 7.5t entitlement on an ordinary car licence. There is great value to be had between 3.5t and 7.5t, because the entitlement ran out if you didn't qualify before 1998.

 

It costs a lot to get that entitlement now, so there are a steadily diminishing number of folks who can drive the bigger vans, therefore some real bargains to be had.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Vardinio'sCat
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On 2/19/2018 at 23:57, ajthefox said:

 

 

The most frustrating thing for me is that we are still relatively speaking a minnow in the field of renewables when really we should be well up there. 

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/costa-rica-renewable-energy-electricity-production-2016-climate-change-fossil-fuels-global-warming-a7505341.html

 

renewables-eu-countries.jpg

The figures are a few years out of date but I don't think our relative position has changed all that much.

 

The nimby effect is definitely partly responsible. My parents have moaned to me about the turbines between Groby (where they live) and Anstey and although I challenge the effect those 'eyesores' have on them, their opinions don't seem to change. I actually think there is something very elegant about wind turbines, but that is rather besides the point.

 

There have been significant advances in the technology behind solar but as someone who works in the construction industry I'm actually not in favour of any sort of imposing solar as a condition for planning - it's counterproductive to force the issue without considering how appropriate or efficient it's going to be. The other issue is as with any other business, is that it incentivises shitheads who don't actually care and just want to make a quick buck - I have seen countless solar panels on roofs they really shouldn't be on. It might save some money but solar panels aren't actually that efficient at turning sunlight into energy and they soon get worse when you move away from the optimum pitch and vary too far towards East or West, and of course that obviously means your payback is worse too. I'm not a fan of those solar tiles, they're just more complicated, less efficient, more expensive and more likely to go wrong/get damaged. We really just need fields of the stuff, it's more efficient than every house having it's own small supply. Oh, and more use of combined solar-thermal where possible.

 

 

 

With all due respect you are out of date, emissions in the UK have been falling big time in the last few years, we have a lot of offshore wind now, and very little coal power.

 

This is just an article from last December, but I'm sure I read we are about around the same level of emissions as in 1890, right now.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/21/nuclear-power-renewables-low-carbon-provide-record-share-uk-electricity

 

and this article says we are at 28% renewables, just behind Denmark

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/30/uk-beating-eu-race-clean-energy-system/

 

Here is the 1890 story

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-carbon-dioxide-emissions-lowest-since-1890-2018-3

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On 2/27/2018 at 20:48, lifted*fox said:

i find it so sad that the entire world isn't prepared to work together to make renewable energy it's main focus until we're all completely sustainable. 

 

everyone is so selfish. we could have eradicated use of fossil fuels or at least be very close to it if everyone pushed enough.

 

we don't seem to have a long term plan and people are happy to watch our world die as long as they're rich in the here and now.

 

greed is holding us back as a species and it'll kill us all eventually. 

 

Don't despair, there is a massive transition under way, and there is no way Trump, or anyone else can stop it.

 

I'm not saying we are not in trouble with the weather and all, but solar is the cheapest form of electric in all the hot countries now, and battery technology is improving very rapidly. Thank Elon Musk for putting a rocket under battery development, he has already broken the automotive sector imho. Check out the the race to catch him up, the old guard are in terrible trouble with their massive legacy investments in the internal combustion engine.

 

I could find the latest cost curve's for both if you like, but take it from someone who flunked an environmental science degree, the transition is looking unstoppable. Once the numbers favour that transition, companies and consumers won't be able to afford to ignore it.

 

Pity about the Artic though, we are staring down a barrel, climate-wise. :(

 

Look at the recently announced recharge rates on the 800v Porsche Mission E, the predicted ranges that BMW are talking for 2020-21, the cost savings  predicted by DHL on the Tesla Semi Truck, the latest strike price for UK offshore wind, the Tesla batteries installed at breakneck speed in Australia, the outright cost advantages from Solar over half the surface of the planet, the Jaguar I-Pace, the Audi E-tron and the Tesla Model 3 etc, etc

 

Green energy is a huge juggernaut now, the bean counters know this, it is just a question of how fast it can be rolled out.

 

http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Lifestyle/Motoring/Green+Cars

 

http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Current+Affairs/Energy/Renewable+Energy

 

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

 

 

They said that 15 years ago, and probably 15 years before that.

Yeah, there's exactly that reason to be sceptical - as was mentioned above. However...I do hope they eventually get it right, and soonish.

 

 

8 hours ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

 

Don't despair, there is a massive transition under way, and there is no way Trump, or anyone else can stop it.

 

I'm not saying we are not in trouble with the weather and all, but solar is the cheapest form of electric in all the hot countries now, and battery technology is improving very rapidly. Thank Elon Musk for putting a rocket under battery development, he has already broken the automotive sector imho. Check out the the race to catch him up, the old guard are in terrible trouble with their massive legacy investments in the internal combustion engine.

 

I could find the latest cost curve's for both if you like, but take it from someone who flunked an environmental science degree, the transition is looking unstoppable. Once the numbers favour that transition, companies and consumers won't be able to afford to ignore it.

 

Pity about the Artic though, we are staring down a barrel, climate-wise. :(

 

Look at the recently announced recharge rates on the 800v Porsche Mission E, the predicted ranges that BMW are talking for 2020-21, the cost savings  predicted by DHL on the Tesla Semi Truck, the latest strike price for UK offshore wind, the Tesla batteries installed at breakneck speed in Australia, the outright cost advantages from Solar over half the surface of the planet, the Jaguar I-Pace, the Audi E-tron and the Tesla Model 3 etc, etc

 

Green energy is a huge juggernaut now, the bean counters know this, it is just a question of how fast it can be rolled out.

 

http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Lifestyle/Motoring/Green+Cars

 

http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/Current+Affairs/Energy/Renewable+Energy

 

 

 

 

I think the despairing comes down to thinking that though things are getting done, it's not enough and/or too late - as well as the greedy stick-in-the-mud nonrenewable companies doing their damnedest to hold onto what they have left through every iota of political pressure they have left to apply (yes, current US administration, I'm looking at you).

 

I do hope that those who despair are wrong on both counts, though. It would really be sad to see humanity be like any other animal and have short-term self-interest be responsible for our downfall.

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3 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Yeah, there's exactly that reason to be sceptical - as was mentioned above. However...I do hope they eventually get it right, and soonish.

 

 

I think the despairing comes down to thinking that though things are getting done, it's not enough and/or too late - as well as the greedy stick-in-the-mud nonrenewable companies doing their damnedest to hold onto what they have left through every iota of political pressure they have left to apply (yes, current US administration, I'm looking at you).

 

I do hope that those who despair are wrong on both counts, though. It would really be sad to see humanity be like any other animal and have short-term self-interest be responsible for our downfall.

 

I think you are bang on when you say it might not be enough, or it might all be too late. I totally agree we are cutting things far to fine for any sense of comfort. I have a feeling we are going to be facing much bigger problems somewhere down the line, whilst having pretty much cleaned up our act, at least on climate change. It is all very well driving around in a lovely, near-zero emissions vehicle running on renewable power, but if the climate/planet has all gone to s**t, it will all be somewhat academic.

 

So when I'm saying don't despair I should probably qualify it better. Despairing about the climate change/environment seems eminently sensible to me, but despairing about the likelihood of an energy transition actually happening is a out of date (by a year or two), imho.

 

Better late than not at all, perhaps. I see it as a race between the ever increasing negative effects, and out efforts to clean up our act.

 

One thing about the fossil fuel companies. Some of them are in a world of trouble, stranded assets and all that. They might come crashing down pretty fast, when the whole thing starts to unwind (which may not be entirely good news for the economy). I believe the Saudi's are selling off, or have sold off, some of their oil assets, although I would have to go and check to work out quite where they are at.

 

I have read for years about the sixth great extinction, and the natural world does seem under systematic attack by us (hence the Anthropocene). Let's hope we can wise up quickly enough to stem the tide of destruction. I absolutely share almost all of your concerns, I'm just a bit more positive about the transition being inevitable. :thumbup:

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1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

The state of some of the comments on that story...even quoting the "not a lot of people know that" blog....sigh.

 

Yeah, I don't often quote the Telegraph, tbh, but it does show that even the conservative establishment knows the improvements are coming through.

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1 minute ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

 

I think you are bang on when you say it might not be enough, or it might all be too late. I totally agree we are cutting things far to fine for any sense of comfort. I have a feeling we are going to be facing much bigger problems somewhere down the line, whilst having pretty much cleaned up our act, at least on climate change. It is all very well driving around in a lovely, near-zero emissions vehicle running on renewable power, but if the climate/planet has all gone to s**t, it will all be somewhat academic.

 

So when I'm saying don't despair I should probably qualify it better. Despairing about the climate change/environment seems eminently sensible to me, but despairing about the likelihood of an energy transition actually happening is a out of date (by a year or two), imho.

 

Better late than not at all, perhaps. I see it as a race between the ever increasing negative effects, and out efforts to clean up our act.

 

One thing about the fossil fuel companies. Some of them are in a world of trouble, stranded assets and all that. They might come crashing down pretty fast, when the whole thing starts to unwind (which may not be entirely good news for the economy). I believe the Saudi's are selling off, or have sold off, some of their oil assets, although I would have to go and check to work out quite where they are at.

 

I have read for years about the sixth great extinction, and the natural world does seem under systematic attack by us (hence the Anthropocene). Let's hope we can wise up quickly enough to stem the tide of destruction. I absolutely share almost all of your concerns, I'm just a bit more positive about the transition being inevitable. :thumbup:

6

Yeah, I think it can happen too. :thumbup:

 

Regarding the bolded part - if we go by the rules of basic extinction rate of various clades above the background rate normally experienced that has been used as a metric for mass extinctions in the past, then we are absolutely in the middle of an extinction event right now (the sixth mass one), that's simply a matter of record. And like it or not, humans are a large part of that event.

 

Here's hoping because we started it, we can stop it, too.

 

2 minutes ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

 

Yeah, I don't often quote the Telegraph, tbh, but it does show that even the conservative establishment knows the improvements are coming through.

Yeah, that's right. Just a shame some of their readership seem to still have their heads in the sand.

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2 hours ago, leicsmac said:

Yeah, I think it can happen too. :thumbup:

 

Regarding the bolded part - if we go by the rules of basic extinction rate of various clades above the background rate normally experienced that has been used as a metric for mass extinctions in the past, then we are absolutely in the middle of an extinction event right now (the sixth mass one), that's simply a matter of record. And like it or not, humans are a large part of that event.

 

Here's hoping because we started it, we can stop it, too.

 

Yeah, that's right. Just a shame some of their readership seem to still have their heads in the sand.

 

Excellent stuff, sounds like you have read the sixth extinction stuff more closely than me. Sometimes I wish I was young again, other times not.

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27 minutes ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

 

Excellent stuff, sounds like you have read the sixth extinction stuff more closely than me. Sometimes I wish I was young again, other times not.

 

I'd assumed you were quite young, tbh.

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2 hours ago, Buce said:

 

I'd assumed you were quite young, tbh.

 

Just hit the big 50, but arguably not as grown up as I should be. I'm having a real push to (finally) give up the fags at the mo, so I'm a bit edgy, as you might have noticed. lol

 

At least FT gives me a distraction from the lack of smokes... vaping just ain't the same.

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3 hours ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

 

Excellent stuff, sounds like you have read the sixth extinction stuff more closely than me. Sometimes I wish I was young again, other times not.

Well, such stuff is something of a hobby area of expertise for me (cue chorus of the FT Gen Chat veterans saying "you don't say...")

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8 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Well, such stuff is something of a hobby area of expertise for me (cue chorus of the FT Gen Chat veterans saying "you don't say...")

 

Well, we can talk to each other at least, save us boring the others lol I know quite a wide range of stuff, but the depth is sometimes lacking.

 

I follow the news using those newsnow links, mainly. I used to go to a few other sites, and I still go to these 2.

 

https://robertscribbler.com/

 

The guy who runs it is quite cool, used to be a threat analyst, and when I read something too scary, I check what he has to say. It is a bit US-centric, but he is a bit less conservative than the hard science guys, who don't like to speculate for fear of causing a fuss, and he has good contacts with other quality bloggers. I'm called Mblanc, and I only normally comment on EV's. Some of the other commentors are a bit doomy, but it comes with the territory really.

 

..........

 

For actual proper scientists, I go to

 

http://www.realclimate.org/

 

This site is run by top, top scientists, including Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA's Goddard Centre. It is quite technical at times, and the comments are polluted by trolls, but I can sometimes cross reference it with other sources.

 

All this makes it sound that I really know what I am talking about, which is only true up to a point. Sometimes I have to have a break because it can be a pretty grim subject, and I can end up becoming a bit detached from day to day life. Staring at a potentially ruinous threat is tough for the soul.

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22 minutes ago, Vardinio'sCat said:

 

Well, we can talk to each other at least, save us boring the others lol I know quite a wide range of stuff, but the depth is sometimes lacking.

 

I follow the news using those newsnow links, mainly. I used to go to a few other sites, and I still go to these 2.

 

https://robertscribbler.com/

 

The guy who runs it is quite cool, used to be a threat analyst, and when I read something too scary, I check what he has to say. It is a bit US-centric, but he is a bit less conservative than the hard science guys, who don't like to speculate for fear of causing a fuss, and he has good contacts with other quality bloggers. I'm called Mblanc, and I only normally comment on EV's. Some of the other commentors are a bit doomy, but it comes with the territory really.

 

..........

 

For actual proper scientists, I go to

 

http://www.realclimate.org/

 

This site is run by top, top scientists, including Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA's Goddard Centre. It is quite technical at times, and the comments are polluted by trolls, but I can sometimes cross reference it with other sources.

 

All this makes it sound that I really know what I am talking about, which is only true up to a point. Sometimes I have to have a break because it can be a pretty grim subject, and I can end up becoming a bit detached from day to day life. Staring at a potentially ruinous threat is tough for the soul.

Thanks a lot - I'll check them out!

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