Foxestalk Brexit Re-Referendum

[Guest Foxin_mad]

17 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

Unfortunately it was probably more to do with the influx of foreign hoardes from the East. ie the Visigoths

 

Wealth inequality had been deeply entrenched in the Roman Empire for 100s of years before it fell - you can't get more unequal than master and slave.

 

The Dark ages seems a bit far-fetched. Can Brexit have a worse effect than the financial crash of 2008?

 

 

I wouldn't think so but you never know.

 

Obviously if lots of business moves out of the UK and we end up with very high unemployment we have a huge problem. The same could also happen under  Corbyn led government. Its interesting that Labour voters use the example above for Brexit but not for Corbyn.

 

If the effects on Britain really are that bad then it is likely to trigger a global recession anyway as which ever way you look at it in or out of the EU we are one of the worlds biggest consumer economies. If we stop buying European products its going to hit the EU countries too.

[Voll Blau]

1 hour ago, Foxin_mad said:

I wouldn't think so but you never know.

 

Obviously if lots of business moves out of the UK and we end up with very high unemployment we have a huge problem. The same could also happen under  Corbyn led government. Its interesting that Labour voters use the example above for Brexit but not for Corbyn.

 

If the effects on Britain really are that bad then it is likely to trigger a global recession anyway as which ever way you look at it in or out of the EU we are one of the worlds biggest consumer economies. If we stop buying European products its going to hit the EU countries too.

Oh good, as long as we can drag everyone down with us too. I'll feel much better about it all if that happens.

[Fox Ulike]

23 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

I don't know I think coming out of the EU where we have some control to go into 'a' customs union where we have no controls seems like an actual waste of time to me! Just so we can say to the Brexit voters they got Brexit even though they didn't actually get Brexit! We just got being in a common market. Surely it has to be better just to scrap the whole thing full stop. Of course politically Labour and Corbyn don't actually want to be in the EU as it would probably cause them a lot of trouble in state aid laws if they want to enact their policies which is why I think they are doing this bizarre 'a' customs union but not 'the' customs unions. To me it sounds very much like having cake and eating it and I am not sure how the EU will accept it.

 

Negotiating our own trade deals makes sense to some extent, currently we don't have a trade deal with Australia for example, we couldn't have one under the customs union, and the EU is unlikely to strike a deal with Australia. To that end we are missing out on opportunities and trade from there under current wto agreements and tariffs. We obviously need to be able to strike some form of deal with the EU on trade that is where the biggest difficulty lies for Brexit.

Ah OK that's interesting did not know that.

 

Maybe. There seems to be a hope that the UK will restructure it's economy post-Brexit with a new wave of trade relationships with countries like Australia, USA, India. Maybe it will happen this way - but it really is a hope. A real leap of faith that we can change our economy and hope that it all turns out OK.

 

We might be missing out with opportunities with Australia etc, but it still seems foolish to damage relationships with geographically close trading partners like France and Germany in favour of those on the other side of the World. So I suppose it still all depends upon the deal we get with the EU.

[Guest Kopfkino]

22 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

I wouldn't think so but you never know.

 

Obviously if lots of business moves out of the UK and we end up with very high unemployment we have a huge problem. The same could also happen under  Corbyn led government. Its interesting that Labour voters use the example above for Brexit but not for Corbyn.

 

If the effects on Britain really are that bad then it is likely to trigger a global recession anyway as which ever way you look at it in or out of the EU we are one of the worlds biggest consumer economies. If we stop buying European products its going to hit the EU countries too.

 

That's a little bit daft

[Buce]

38 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

I don't know I think coming out of the EU where we have some control to go into 'a' customs union where we have no controls seems like an actual waste of time to me! Just so we can say to the Brexit voters they got Brexit even though they didn't actually get Brexit! We just got being in a common market. Surely it has to be better just to scrap the whole thing full stop. Of course politically Labour and Corbyn don't actually want to be in the EU as it would probably cause them a lot of trouble in state aid laws if they want to enact their policies which is why I think they are doing this bizarre 'a' customs union but not 'the' customs unions. To me it sounds very much like having cake and eating it and I am not sure how the EU will accept it.

 

Negotiating our own trade deals makes sense to some extent, currently we don't have a trade deal with Australia for example, we couldn't have one under the customs union, and the EU is unlikely to strike a deal with Australia. To that end we are missing out on opportunities and trade from there under current wto agreements and tariffs. We obviously need to be able to strike some form of deal with the EU on trade that is where the biggest difficulty lies for Brexit.

6

 

8 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

Ah OK that's interesting did not know that.

 

Maybe. There seems to be a hope that the UK will restructure it's economy post-Brexit with a new wave of trade relationships with countries like Australia, USA, India. Maybe it will happen this way - but it really is a hope. A real leap of faith that we can change our economy and hope that it all turns out OK.

 

We might be missing out with opportunities with Australia etc, but it still seems foolish to damage relationships with geographically close trading partners like France and Germany in favour of those on the other side of the World. So I suppose it still all depends upon the deal we get with the EU.

 

The EU is in well-advanced trade talks with both Australia and New Zealand.

 

http://dfat.gov.au/news/news/Pages/working-towards-an-australia-eu-free-trade-agreement.aspx

 

https://www.mfat.govt.nz/en/trade/free-trade-agreements/agreements-under-negotiation/eu-fta/

Edited 28 February 2018 by Buce

[Guest Foxin_mad]

4 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

That's a little bit daft

I don't know. I fundamentally disagree the impact will be what people say it will be but if it is as bad as they say it will be then I would say the impact will be more far reaching that just the UK. If you suddenly bankrupt the 5/6th biggest global economy which is what people are eluding to then that will certainly have an effect on a global scald in my eyes.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

4 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

 

The EU is in well-advanced trade talks with both Australia and New Zealand.

Great news if they are they do have a habit of dragging their feet on these thing so we shall see how 'advanced' it is I am sure.

Edited 28 February 2018 by Foxin_mad

[Guest Foxin_mad]

11 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

Ah OK that's interesting did not know that.

 

Maybe. There seems to be a hope that the UK will restructure it's economy post-Brexit with a new wave of trade relationships with countries like Australia, USA, India. Maybe it will happen this way - but it really is a hope. A real leap of faith that we can change our economy and hope that it all turns out OK.

 

We might be missing out with opportunities with Australia etc, but it still seems foolish to damage relationships with geographically close trading partners like France and Germany in favour of those on the other side of the World. So I suppose it still all depends upon the deal we get with the EU.

Its a possibility. I suppose this is where the cake and eating it bit comes in!

 

I would rather keep our EU relationship in a reformed EU, keep all our exiting partners and for the EU to be extremely proactive in striking global free trade agreements. It does need to reform as their are some protectionist practices in places from certain powerhouse economies in the EU that need to stop to allow better value for all consumers.  

[Buce]

6 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

Great news if they are they do have a habit of dragging their feet on these thing so we shall see how 'advanced' it is I am sure.

 

 Not for us if we leave. We will be straight to the back of the queue.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-trade-deal-australia-latest-new-zealand-jean-claude-juncker-a7944516.html

 

What it is is another example of why we don't need to leave to have free trade agreements with the rest of the world.

Edited 28 February 2018 by Buce

[Guest Kopfkino]

12 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

I don't know. I fundamentally disagree the impact will be what people say it will be but if it is as bad as they say it will be then I would say the impact will be more far reaching that just the UK. If you suddenly bankrupt the 5/6th biggest global economy which is what people are eluding to then that will certainly have an effect on a global scald in my eyes.

 

The worst impact assessment said growth would be 8% lower than otherwise. I don't think anyone has spoken of bankrupting the country or anything that extreme. A recession(or the actual weak growth that's forecast) in this country isn't going to cause a global recession; Japan has spent much of the last 25 years in recession and it has never been a trigger for a global recession.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

6 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

 Not for us if we leave. We will be straight to the back of the queue.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-trade-deal-australia-latest-new-zealand-jean-claude-juncker-a7944516.html

 

What it is is another example of why we don't need to leave to have free trade agreements with the rest of the world.

Exactly we don't need to leave. Also we don't need to be in 'a' customs union but not 'the' customs union.

 

I am fully in favour of us negotiating trade agreements as part of a reformed EU, however I think it would be a bizarre situation to be in a customs union where the EU negotiate our trade deals and we cant make our own!

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Fox Ulike said:

Unfortunately it was probably more to do with the influx of foreign hoardes from the East. ie the Visigoths

 

Wealth inequality had been deeply entrenched in the Roman Empire for 100s of years before it fell - you can't get more unequal than master and slave.

 

The Dark ages seems a bit far-fetched. Can Brexit have a worse effect than the financial crash of 2008?

 

 

At least this time it will be true when people say that it was the Tories who crashed the economy.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

 

The worst impact assessment said growth would be 8% lower than otherwise. I don't think anyone has spoken of bankrupting the country or anything that extreme. A recession(or the actual weak growth that's forecast) in this country isn't going to cause a global recession; Japan has spent much of the last 25 years in recession and it has never been a trigger for a global recession.

I thought the worst was 15% and 8% was the middle option?

[Buce]

Just now, Foxin_mad said:

Exactly we don't need to leave. Also we don't need to be in 'a' customs union but not 'the' customs union.

 

I am fully in favour of us negotiating trade agreements as part of a reformed EU, however I think it would be a bizarre situation to be in a customs union where the EU negotiate our trade deals and we cant make our own!

 

Exactly why leaving is madness.

 

Let me just check something - are we actually agreeing on something or am I hallucinating?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Buce said:

 

Exactly why leaving is madness.

 

Let me just check something - are we actually agreeing on something or am I hallucinating?

Fox becomes relatively sensible on Brexit.

Get him on Corbyn though.....

[Guest Foxin_mad]

1 minute ago, Kopfkino said:

 

The worst impact assessment said growth would be 8% lower than otherwise. I don't think anyone has spoken of bankrupting the country or anything that extreme. A recession(or the actual weak growth that's forecast) in this country isn't going to cause a global recession; Japan has spent much of the last 25 years in recession and it has never been a trigger for a global recession.

I think the official forecasts are the above which I agree would have a huge impact. Again this is not my view but some above are saying that all EU and foreign owned business/investment will leave UK shores we will all lose our jobs, banks will stop getting paid etc etc. I am saying that IF it is 'that' bad it will certainly have implications globally. I don't actually think that anyone would let it get that bad but only time will tell.

[Guest Kopfkino]

3 minutes ago, toddybad said:

I thought the worst was 15% and 8% was the middle option?

Nah I think 2-5-8 nationally and 16% was for worst affected area.

[Guest Foxin_mad]

5 minutes ago, Buce said:

 

Exactly why leaving is madness.

 

Let me just check something - are we actually agreeing on something or am I hallucinating?

Yep  a global first!

[Guest Foxin_mad]

5 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Fox becomes relatively sensible on Brexit.

Get him on Corbyn though.....

My thoughts on Corbyn are very well know and I don't think anyone will ever change that.

 

I do also think his 'a' single market policy is the absolute worst thing we can do but I can see from his point of view why he is advocating that as he can try and please his younger voters into believing he has got a good deal, he can con some people into think he has got Brexit and he is free to implement policies that may have feel foul to EU state aid laws.

 

That alone is one reason why I could never vote for him or Labour at present. 

[Fox Ulike]

13 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

Nah I think 2-5-8 nationally and 16% was for worst affected area.

Any idea what these figures would actually mean though? What does 8% lower growth look like?

 

Is that comparable to the 2008 recession?

[Guest Foxin_mad]

If memory serves me right so probably not!

 

I think we contracted about 7% between 2008 and 2009. So roughly the same impact potentially.

[Beechey]

13 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

Any idea what these figures would actually mean though? What does 8% lower growth look like?

 

Is that comparable to the 2008 recession?

 

5 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

If memory serves me right so probably not!

 

I think we contracted about 7% between 2008 and 2009. So roughly the same impact potentially.

The forecasts aren't a contraction on a single year, it's just lower growth over a 15 (or was it 30?) year period. Not an actual contraction, but lower growth. 2007/08 was an absolute loss, rather than a relative loss.

Edited 28 February 2018 by Beechey

[Guest MattP]

37 minutes ago, Buce said:

Not for us if we leave. We will be straight to the back of the queue.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-trade-deal-australia-latest-new-zealand-jean-claude-juncker-a7944516.html

 

What it is is another example of why we don't need to leave to have free trade agreements with the rest of the world.

Behave Mr Cameron, you can't throw the Barack line at us again, that already tried and failed (and of course was wrong given his tone straight after). Numerous members of the Australian government have said they want not only a trade deal with us but a "free" trade deal with us. Let's hope we can make that work.

 

No evidence whatsoever we'll be at the back of the queue and hopefully we'll be able to do a trade deal with the two nations that doesn't impose tariffs on things like meat and wine, which the European Union is pretty much certain to do to protect certain sectors.

 

28 minutes ago, toddybad said:

At least this time it will be true when people say that it was the Tories who crashed the economy.

Didn't Labour vote to trigger Article 50 then? Although you could be right it is pinned all on the Tories, one of the reasons I'm suprised Labour did commit to a position this (when Tories like me were calling for them to do so it should be obvious not to so anything), I'd have tried to prevaricate for as long as possible, they were getting away with it somehow.

 

As we are talking of Europeans lets quote Napoleon - Never interfere with your enemy while they are destroying themselves.

[Alf Bentley]

Interesting poll so far.

 

Not a representative sample or reliable polling process.

But, as with previous polls, it's producing an outcome that pretty much matches what I'd have expected.

 

- Both polls (vote in 2016 & vote now) have a higher Remain vote than national polls - to be expected as the sample will be much younger than the overall national population and younger people disproportionately support Remain.

- There's been a slight shift towards Remain so far, but only very slight. The vast majority in both camps have not changed their preferences.

 

Once it's complete, it'll be interesting to compare it to the poll done on here at the time of the referendum.

I can't remember what the outcome of that was and can't be arsed to search for it just now.

Of course, it won't be exactly the same people polled on here in 2018 as in 2016, but there'll be a large overlap.

The disparity between the actual 2016 poll and the "how I voted in 2016" poll above might or might not show up some "false memory syndrome".

[Beechey]

45 minutes ago, toddybad said:

At least this time it will be true when people say that it was the Tories who crashed the economy.

There's absolutely no indications from any UK governing economic body that the economy will soon "crash", at all.

 

We're clearly going to get some kind of deal, the government has softened up its position and is obviously looking to compromise, as I'm sure the EU is. The only real roadblock right now is the NI border, after that it's on to real "trade agreement" stuff.