US Presidential Election 2024

[leicsmac]

So it turns out that paying people to vote for Trump despite putting the money through a few loopholes first might still be illegal, then. Guess we'll see what the Justice Department do.

 

Fivethirtyeight has the latest odds at pretty much exactly 50/50. Don't see that changing much between now and the big day, really.

[ealingfox]

40 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

So it turns out that paying people to vote for Trump despite putting the money through a few loopholes first might still be illegal, then. Guess we'll see what the Justice Department do.

 

Fivethirtyeight has the latest odds at pretty much exactly 50/50. Don't see that changing much between now and the big day, really.

 

Becoming clear that Trump is going to win as far as I can see. Lot more early voting from registered Republicans compared to Dems this time and Harris doesn't have enough of a buffer in the overall polls to translate into Electoral College votes.

 

Time they start planning for potential attempts to dismantle their democratic system now unfortunately.

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, ealingfox said:

 

Becoming clear that Trump is going to win as far as I can see. Lot more early voting from registered Republicans compared to Dems this time and Harris doesn't have enough of a buffer in the overall polls to translate into Electoral College votes.

 

Time they start planning for potential attempts to dismantle their democratic system now unfortunately.

That's the way it looks right now, but who knows?

 

If he does win, I just hope that I'm wrong about what it means for a lot of people short term and everyone long term, but I don't see how it plays out any other way.

 

It's still rather unbelievable that it has come to this after what has happened before. Cult of personality and social media manipulation have a lot to answer for.

[st albans fox]

32 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

That's the way it looks right now, but who knows?

 

If he does win, I just hope that I'm wrong about what it means for a lot of people short term and everyone long term, but I don't see how it plays out any other way.

 

It's still rather unbelievable that it has come to this after what has happened before. Cult of personality and social media manipulation have a lot to answer for.

Not sure yet mac - more than tight enough for events over the next ten days to play their part 

 

[Zear0]

2 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Not sure yet mac - more than tight enough for events over the next ten days to play their part 

 

Always knew Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan were rigged. 

[leicsmac]

10 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Not sure yet mac - more than tight enough for events over the next ten days to play their part 

 

It certainly is close, which is why 538 has it pretty much as a coin flip. But Trump has previous for beating the margin of error.

 

For the sake of the future, let's hope it's not the case this time round.

[grobyfox1990]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

So it turns out that paying people to vote for Trump despite putting the money through a few loopholes first might still be illegal, then. Guess we'll see what the Justice Department do.

 

Fivethirtyeight has the latest odds at pretty much exactly 50/50. Don't see that changing much between now and the big day, really.

You'd hope the DoJ don't get involved if you are anti-Trump. The comeback is easy. 'We have proof democrats are bringing in foreign politicians to influence our elections, these elections are crooked' etc etc. Once again the dim democrats have walked into another vote winner for Trump

[leicsmac]

12 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

You'd hope the DoJ don't get involved if you are anti-Trump. The comeback is easy. 'We have proof democrats are bringing in foreign politicians to influence our elections, these elections are crooked' etc etc. Once again the dim democrats have walked into another vote winner for Trump

What kind of a world do we live in when official criminal investigation can be utilised to actually boost a political campaign like that?

 

If the Dems are so dim, what is the best pathway forward on this matter? Not a lot seems to work.

[grobyfox1990]

8 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

What kind of a world do we live in when official criminal investigation can be utilised to actually boost a political campaign like that?

 

If the Dems are so dim, what is the best pathway forward on this matter? Not a lot seems to work.

Official criminal investigation, meet my criminal investigation. They both have ludicrous allegations of election interference ongoing.

The best pathway forward would've been to put some credible policy, targets and actions forward to help the lives of the American people improve. Seen as there's less than two weeks to go and they have singularly failed to do that, we are back in the Sean Dyche Tuesday night at Burnley dogfight we have had for the last 8 years.

I have no idea why an undecided voter would be swayed to Kamala. It would be like voting for Shaun Bailey for PM.

[leicsmac]

Just now, grobyfox1990 said:

Official criminal investigation, meet my criminal investigation. They both have ludicrous allegations of election interference ongoing.

The best pathway forward would've been to put some credible policy, targets and actions forward to help the lives of the American people improve. Seen as there's less than two weeks to go and they have singularly failed to do that, we are back in the Sean Dyche Tuesday night at Burnley dogfight we have had for the last 8 years.

I have no idea why an undecided voter would be swayed to Kamala. It would be like voting for Shaun Bailey for PM.

I've seen a lot of talk about this and it sounds good and I'd notionally agree, but is there any proof that it would actually be effective when the other side can pretty much say what they like and essentially get a free pass for it?

 

There has to be some kind of pathway forward to neutralise the sentiment Trump has tapped into, or we're all accepting the terrible consequences of it as a fait accompli.

[grobyfox1990]

22 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

I've seen a lot of talk about this and it sounds good and I'd notionally agree, but is there any proof that it would actually be effective when the other side can pretty much say what they like and essentially get a free pass for it?

 

There has to be some kind of pathway forward to neutralise the sentiment Trump has tapped into, or we're all accepting the terrible consequences of it as a fait accompli.

Trump gets away with it because the Dimocrats are so weak. Look at how John Micklethwait dealt with Trump a few weeks ago. Therein lies an experienced person who knows what he's talking about, has a response to Trump polices, kept his cool and put across his own ideas. Trump was flustered and could not deal with him, an undecided voter would not sway towards Trump after listening to that.

On the other hand, you've had a succession of weak and clueless candidates (Clinton, Biden, Harris) who have been flailed and veered off course by Trump. If you are flustered by burger man, you do not inspire confidence as an international leader. 

[chuddy8]

Have you seen the state of a lot of American cities these days? Let's hope for the sake of the US, that Trump does win. 

[ealingfox]

25 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Trump gets away with it because the Dimocrats are so weak. Look at how John Micklethwait dealt with Trump a few weeks ago. Therein lies an experienced person who knows what he's talking about, has a response to Trump polices, kept his cool and put across his own ideas. Trump was flustered and could not deal with him, an undecided voter would not sway towards Trump after listening to that.

On the other hand, you've had a succession of weak and clueless candidates (Clinton, Biden, Harris) who have been flailed and veered off course by Trump. If you are flustered by burger man, you do not inspire confidence as an international leader. 

 

Biden beat him relatively comfortably though?

[leicsmac]

20 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Trump gets away with it because the Dimocrats are so weak. Look at how John Micklethwait dealt with Trump a few weeks ago. Therein lies an experienced person who knows what he's talking about, has a response to Trump polices, kept his cool and put across his own ideas. Trump was flustered and could not deal with him, an undecided voter would not sway towards Trump after listening to that.

On the other hand, you've had a succession of weak and clueless candidates (Clinton, Biden, Harris) who have been flailed and veered off course by Trump. If you are flustered by burger man, you do not inspire confidence as an international leader. 

Fair enough.

 

Personally, when the bad things will happen, I'm going to hold the people doing them as accountable for the most part rather than the other side for not doing the right thing to stop them.

 

18 minutes ago, chuddy8 said:

Have you seen the state of a lot of American cities these days? Let's hope for the sake of the US, that Trump does win. 

And I'm sure women thinking about their right to bodily autonomy, LGBT people and minority groups thinking about many equal rights at all, and the biosphere itself long term think similarly.

 

Perhaps it's possible to address the systemic issues in US cities without throwing those things to the wolves.

[leicsmac]

28 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

 

Biden beat him relatively comfortably though?

It's an interesting case study as to why that happened.

 

In fact, the whole era will make for fascinating reading in the future, I'm sure. Of course, "fascinating" doesn't always mean "good".

[chuddy8]

37 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Fair enough.

 

Personally, when the bad things will happen, I'm going to hold the people doing them as accountable for the most part rather than the other side for not doing the right thing to stop them.

 

And I'm sure women thinking about their right to bodily autonomy, LGBT people and minority groups thinking about many equal rights at all, and the biosphere itself long term think similarly.

 

Perhaps it's possible to address the systemic issues in US cities without throwing those things to the wolves.

I don't know, the abortion debate is massively complex, I struggle to come down on either side. On the one hand, women should have a right over their own body, but on the other hand, it is ultimately a human life you are snuffing out. It's one of those issues for me, where there are two valid arguments so I wouldn't let it decide an election for me.

 

It feels to late to address the systemic issues now, perhaps people sense that which is why they are considering throwing these things to the wolves. I don't think the Donald is a particularly good person (nor do I think Biden, Clinton, Obama or Bush were), but perhaps he is what America needs, because Kamala Harris certainly isn't.

[grobyfox1990]

41 minutes ago, ealingfox said:

 

Biden beat him relatively comfortably though?

That's true. Unique conditions of covid played v well be sleepy Joe

 

40 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Fair enough.

 

Personally, when the bad things will happen, I'm going to hold the people doing them as accountable for the most part rather than the other side for not doing the right thing to stop them.

 

And I'm sure women thinking about their right to bodily autonomy, LGBT people and minority groups thinking about many equal rights at all, and the biosphere itself long term think similarly.

 

Perhaps it's possible to address the systemic issues in US cities without throwing those things to the wolves.

True and we can keep repeating that 'we will hold those accountable for bad things happen' but it clearly does not resonate and has absolutely no effect on the man on the street. So it's a rudderless message. It's horrendous marketing and communication from the Dims. Compare that to how cool and calm Keir Starmer was when Rishi spouted that dumb £2bn lie about 1318 times in the debate. 

[Jattdogg]

Kamala needs a miracle at this point.

 

The plus is he cant have a 3rd term

[jgtuk]

6 minutes ago, chuddy8 said:

I don't know, the abortion debate is massively complex, I struggle to come down on either side. On the one hand, women should have a right over their own body, but on the other hand, it is ultimately a human life you are snuffing out. It's one of those issues for me, where there are two valid arguments so I wouldn't let it decide an election for me.

 

It feels to late to address the systemic issues now, perhaps people sense that which is why they are considering throwing these things to the wolves. I don't think the Donald is a particularly good person (nor do I think Biden, Clinton, Obama or Bush were), but perhaps he is what America needs, because Kamala Harris certainly isn't.

Not complex at all, it is a health issue not something to be regulated by religous zealots.

 

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, chuddy8 said:

I don't know, the abortion debate is massively complex, I struggle to come down on either side. On the one hand, women should have a right over their own body, but on the other hand, it is ultimately a human life you are snuffing out. It's one of those issues for me, where there are two valid arguments so I wouldn't let it decide an election for me.

 

It feels to late to address the systemic issues now, perhaps people sense that which is why they are considering throwing these things to the wolves. I don't think the Donald is a particularly good person (nor do I think Biden, Clinton, Obama or Bush were), but perhaps he is what America needs, because Kamala Harris certainly isn't.

Fair point on the first paragraph, I would just add that I have my own take solely because there are so many other situations (organ donation etc) where a life is reliant on another person's bodily autonomy and yet there freedom of choice seems entirely decisive there, so just focusing on abortion seems hypocritical and controlling.

 

WRT the second paragraph, I get where the thought process of those folks is coming from, but it's a mistake that will cost other people a lot short term and everyone, including them, long term. It's deeply frustrating to know that, and have people choose their short term self interest and things go bad anyway.

 

3 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

That's true. Unique conditions of covid played v well be sleepy Joe

 

True and we can keep repeating that 'we will hold those accountable for bad things happen' but it clearly does not resonate and has absolutely no effect on the man on the street. So it's a rudderless message. It's horrendous marketing and communication from the Dims. Compare that to how cool and calm Keir Starmer was when Rishi spouted that dumb £2bn lie about 1318 times in the debate. 

And put l yet people are still trying to nail Starmer to the wall regardless of how cool and calm and policy based he has tried to be.

 

We've talked about this before and I know your point is good, but in this era I'm really not sure how effective "going high" is as a solution. But then going gutter as Trump is is no solution either, so I've no idea of a solution. I just hope that there is a solution, so that the future isn't inevitably very dark.

[Jattdogg]

2 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Fair point on the first paragraph, I would just add that I have my own take solely because there are so many other situations (organ donation etc) where a life is reliant on another person's bodily autonomy and yet there freedom of choice seems entirely decisive there, so just focusing on abortion seems hypocritical and controlling.

 

WRT the second paragraph, I get where the thought process of those folks is coming from, but it's a mistake that will cost other people a lot short term and everyone, including them, long term. It's deeply frustrating to know that, and have people choose their short term self interest and things go bad anyway.

 

And put l yet people are still trying to nail Starmer to the wall regardless of how cool and calm and policy based he has tried to be.

 

We've talked about this before and I know your point is good, but in this era I'm really not sure how effective "going high" is as a solution. But then going gutter as Trump is is no solution either, so I've no idea of a solution. I just hope that there is a solution, so that the future isn't inevitably very dark.

The solution is around when trump either wins and can't run again or loses and won't run again.

[EnderbyFox]

 

 

 

Definitely, definitely not a cult. 

[leicsmac]

13 minutes ago, Jattdogg said:

The solution is around when trump either wins and can't run again or loses and won't run again.

That would be the best case scenario, yes.

 

I fear that the sentiment has tapped into won't leave with him and/or will have caused irrevocable damage by that time, though.

[leicsmac]

10 minutes ago, EnderbyFox said:

 

 

 

Definitely, definitely not a cult. 

... what do you do when such uncompromising zealotry has practically seized control of the political process and the consequences are both very stark and very bad?

[Zear0]

44 minutes ago, Jattdogg said:

Kamala needs a miracle at this point.

 

The plus is he cant have a 3rd term

Wouldn't bet against it... 

Edited 24 October 2024 by Zear0