AdamN Posted 17 March 2014 Share Posted 17 March 2014 Might have a go at some more 'disciplined' betting myself, although there's no way I'm gonna be starting with such a high amount. What would people think of a technique where you aim to get the same profit from every bet you make? For example, if I set a target of £5 profit on every bet, then I could stick 2.50 on 2/1, a fiver on evens, or a tenner on 1/2, and adjust the initial stake depending on the odds (within reason, no 0.50 on 10/1s, for example). A viable tactic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Churchill Posted 17 March 2014 Share Posted 17 March 2014 Might have a go at some more 'disciplined' betting myself, although there's no way I'm gonna be starting with such a high amount. What would people think of a technique where you aim to get the same profit from every bet you make? For example, if I set a target of £5 profit on every bet, then I could stick 2.50 on 2/1, a fiver on evens, or a tenner on 1/2, and adjust the initial stake depending on the odds (within reason, no 0.50 on 10/1s, for example). A viable tactic? I tend to mix my bets up and use a bit of common sense there is a statistic software tool you can get which can help but it wont make you a millionaire it just gives you a rough idea on what would be the best bet, if you want to start low like I do I normally stake my whole amount on say for example -1 Madrid at home to so n so. Once I get up to a nice amount I withdraw what I first deposited so I haven't lost anything and then do as PuntersAdvice does and put £5 on singles etc, you could try some of the challenges if you just wanted a bit of fun and try go all the way or when your happy with what you have just withdraw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 18 March 2014 Author Share Posted 18 March 2014 Might have a go at some more 'disciplined' betting myself, although there's no way I'm gonna be starting with such a high amount. What would people think of a technique where you aim to get the same profit from every bet you make? For example, if I set a target of £5 profit on every bet, then I could stick 2.50 on 2/1, a fiver on evens, or a tenner on 1/2, and adjust the initial stake depending on the odds (within reason, no 0.50 on 10/1s, for example). A viable tactic? This is not a good idea. Your stake should be based on the value the odds offer versus your own opinion. Google 'Kelly Criterion Calculator'. There are a lot of them online. You put in the odds and the percentage of the time you think the bet will win. It will then recommend a percentage of your bankroll to bet to optimise your long term return. I recommend you bet no more than 25% of a full kelly criterion stake and never more than 10% of your bankroll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamN Posted 18 March 2014 Share Posted 18 March 2014 This is not a good idea. Your stake should be based on the value the odds offer versus your own opinion. Google 'Kelly Criterion Calculator'. There are a lot of them online. You put in the odds and the percentage of the time you think the bet will win. It will then recommend a percentage of your bankroll to bet to optimise your long term return. I recommend you bet no more than 25% of a full kelly criterion stake and never more than 10% of your bankroll. Thanks. I started yesterday and went for the slow and steady option of ~£5 per bet, regardless of odds, but I'll check that out. 6/6 have come in so far, with 5 more still to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howlinmadmurfdoc Posted 19 March 2014 Share Posted 19 March 2014 So in nearly 3 weeks you've made about 30 quid, doesn't seem worth the effort to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salieri Posted 20 March 2014 Share Posted 20 March 2014 So in nearly 3 weeks you've made about 30 quid, doesn't seem worth the effort to me. Better than losing. I appreciate the effort/tips, carry on mate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 1 April 2014 Author Share Posted 1 April 2014 Champions League: Barcelona v Atletico Madrid -Have played eachother 4 times since 2013, all under 3.5 goals. -Last two meetings finished 0-0. -Atletico have not won at Camp Nou since 2006 and will come to this match to defend and go to the second leg at home with a 0-0 or 1-1 result. -Barcelona have won 2 of their previous 6 Champions League matches against Spanish opposition. -Atletico are undefeated in the Champions League. -Barcelona struggled to break down a tight defensive unit in Espanyol at the weekend, winning 1-0 and will face a similar strategy here. -Atletico's top scorer Diego Costa picked up a knee injury on Monday and is doubtful for this match. Bet: Under 3.5 Goals Stake: 52 Bookmaker: StanJames Odds: 1.44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 1 April 2014 Author Share Posted 1 April 2014 Barcelona 1-1 Atletico Madrid Balance: 1,060 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 5 April 2014 Author Share Posted 5 April 2014 French Ligue 1: Guingamp v Montpellier -Guingamp and Montpellier occupy 18th and 15th place in the total goals per league match table with 1.91 and 2.29 goals respectively. -They both have an average of 1.5 total goals per match in their last 6 league games. -They have a combined 74% of league matches going under 2.5 goals. -Guingamp have the 4th worst offense and the 5th best defense in the league. -Saihi (Montpellier) has returned but has said himself he is another 2 or 3 games away from match fitness. -Defender Mathieu Deplagne is available for Montpellier, but will serve a one-match ban for accumulation of yellow cards against Marseille. -Guingamp will soon have captain Lionel Mathis available again following an Achilles injury, but the Montpellier match comes too soon. Bet: Under 2.5 Goals Stake: 53 Bookmaker: Ladbrokes Odds: 1.55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filbert_Ross Posted 6 April 2014 Share Posted 6 April 2014 Bad result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 10 April 2014 Author Share Posted 10 April 2014 Guingamp 1-2 Montpellier Balance: 1,007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtles Head Posted 10 April 2014 Share Posted 10 April 2014 Guingamp 1-2 Montpellier Balance: 1,007 Punters advice... £7 profit in 5 weeks.... This thread is lost on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Hundreds Posted 11 April 2014 Share Posted 11 April 2014 No such thing as a tipster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filbert_Ross Posted 11 April 2014 Share Posted 11 April 2014 Lambys probably more than £7 up over the same period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 13 April 2014 Author Share Posted 13 April 2014 German Bundesliga: Hoffenheim v Augsburg -There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Hoffenheim's last 17 home games in the Bundesliga. -Hoffenheim have scored at least 2 goals in their last 8 home matches in the Bundesliga. -There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Augsburg's last 6 away games in the Bundesliga. -Hoffenheim are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Augsburg in all competitions. -Augsburg still have a slight chance to qualify for Europe themselves after a win against Bayern last weekend. Several important players could return to the starting line-up. -The last meeting had 24 shots with 16 on target. Bet: Over 2.5 Goals Stake: 50 Bookmaker: Ladbrokes Odds: 1.55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Facecloth Posted 13 April 2014 Share Posted 13 April 2014 Don't mean to be rude, but I think you're a bit shite at this. You might want to find a new hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salieri Posted 13 April 2014 Share Posted 13 April 2014 Final score Hoffenhem 2-0 Augsberg. Bet lost. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filbert_Ross Posted 13 April 2014 Share Posted 13 April 2014 Hoffenheim's first clean sheet of the season too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Hundreds Posted 14 April 2014 Share Posted 14 April 2014 Is this Andy Totham? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 14 April 2014 Author Share Posted 14 April 2014 Hoffenheim 2-0 Augsburg Balance: 957 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vardinhio Posted 14 April 2014 Share Posted 14 April 2014 End of the season soon, come on punter up the action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 15 April 2014 Author Share Posted 15 April 2014 Spanish Copa Del Rey: Barcelona v Real Madrid -Both teams have scored in the last 15 meetings. -Barcelona have seen over 2.5 goals in 13 of their last 14 matches against Real Madrid in all competitions. -Real Madrid have scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches against Barcelona in all competitions. -This is Barcelona's only chance of a trophy this season and will play very offensively. -Barcelona have defensive problems with both Puyol and Pique doubtful and Valdes is definitely out while Madrid have their own defensive problems with both Marcelo and Khedira doubtful. -While Ronaldo is out and obviously a massive player for Madrid, Isco has been producing the goals in his absence. -In previous seasons this would have been an automatic 10% bet however with other factors such as Madrid's Champions League aspirations and their focus on La Liga we will be reducing the stakes on this match. Bet: Both Teams To Score Stake: 49 Bookmaker: Paddy Power Odds: 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 15 April 2014 Author Share Posted 15 April 2014 In the short while since the bet was posted Paddy Power have dropped the odds from 1.5 to 1.4 and are now one of the shortest priced among the major bookmakers. There must be some large bettors on this forum or a lot of small bets placed in a short period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuntersAdvice Posted 16 April 2014 Author Share Posted 16 April 2014 Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid Balance: 981 ------------------------- English Premier League: Outright Winner Betting Market -Liverpools have 4 games remaining, two of which are against poor mid-table teams who have nothing to play for in Crystal Palace and Newcastle. -Liverpools other game is against Norwich who are fighting relegation and are lucky Fulham and Sunderland collapsed this year or they would certainly be relegated. -Liverpools remaining fixture is against Chelsea and crucially for this bet, the match will be played at Anfield where Liverpool have a record of 15-1-1 and are playing a Chelsea team that have won less than 50% of their away games and their most important creative player, Hazard, has a calf/shin injury and is without an expected return date and could miss this match. -Man City have 5 games remaining which includes a very tough trip to Everton who have a record at home of 12-3-2 while Chelsea are still in the Champions League and have a very tough draw against Atletico Madrid which will increase their chances of dropping points in the final stages of the Premier League. -Assuming Liverpool draw with Chelsea and win their remaining fixtures they will win the league after Man City were held to a draw with Sunderland tonight. Bet: Liverpool To Win The Premier League 13/14 Stake: 98 Bookmaker: BetVictor Odds: 1.57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam1 Posted 17 April 2014 Share Posted 17 April 2014 You do know that gambling is all about getting the value? You do know that the margins are so tight on football bets that it simply isn't worthwhile attempting to do it as either the roi is minimal profit or a loss. This is from experience. I notice you are looking at stats. I used stats when i created a page long formula/equation for working out the probability of outcome and scores of premier league matches. I did it for a couple of weeks without betting and it looked fairly accurate. It gave a % chance of an outcome and enabled me to establish where a price was bigger then what I had. The problem is its very time consuming and the margin is still low. Plus there are brighter people then me who are being paid by using more complex methods of establishing probabilities of football matches. They are called odds compilers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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