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Alf Bentley

Election Prediction Competition

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Posted

Unless the electorate goes barmy I think we'll have another Tory/Lib-Dem Coalition.

 

Labour probably poll around 7.5M, UKIP no more than 2M, SNP around 3M, Green around 1M, PC about 0.5M

 

The winner will probably be apathy!!

Posted

Come on, people! Roll up! Roll up! All the fun of the fair! Fantastic prizes, er, er.... 

 

Entries accepted until 9.30pm on Thursday (just in case any of you in-crowd London BBC types think you'll get wind of the exit poll before 10pm)....

 

About time I did my entry, then, isn't it.....

 

1) Who will form the next government

 

Labour Minority

(Confidence & Supply with Lib Dems & SDLP; informal understanding with SNP?)

 

2) Which party or parties will have ministers in the next cabinet (2pts if correct; 1pt deducted if incorrect)

 

Labour

 

3) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): Con (306), Lab (258), LD (57), SNP (6) (for each: 5pts if spot on; 3pts if within 5 seats; 1pt if 6-10 seats out)

 

Con 276 - Lab 276 - LD 26 -  SNP 47

 

4) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): UKIP (0), Greens (1), Plaid (3), DUP (8) (for each: 2 points if spot on; 1 point if only 1 seat out)

 

UKIP 3 - Greens 1 - Plaid 4 - DUP 9

 

5) Who will win each of these seats (1 point each; holder in brackets)? - Loughborough (Con); Thanet South (Con); Thurrock (Con); Grimsby (Lab); Hastings & Rye (Con); Hartlepool (Lab); Orkney & Shetland (LD); St. Ives (LD); Rochester & Strood (UKIP since byelection), Brighton Pavilion (Green), Bristol W (LD), Carlisle (Con)

 

Loughborough - Con

Thanet South - Con

Thurrock - UKIP

Grimsby - Lab

Hastings & Rye - Lab

Hartlepool - UKIP (my surprise result - they're nutters those monkeyhangers & why else would Farage visit?)

Orkney & Shetland - Lib Dems

St. Ives - Lib Dem

Rochester & Strood - Con

Brighton Pavilion - Green

Bristol W - Lab

Carlisle - Lab

 

6) Name any outgoing cabinet ministers or shadow cabinet ministers who'll lose their seats (2 points for each; 1 point deducted if wrong)

 

Danny Alexander

Douglas Alexander

 

7) Which party will win the most seats (2 points; 10 points if you correctly predict a tie)

 

Tie between Conservative & Labour

 

8) Name any party leaders who will have resigned within 1 week of the election (3 points for each; 2 points deducted if wrong)

 

Farage, Bennett......

and a longshot gamble on Cameron (hopefully) realising within a week that he can't command 323 votes, handing over 1 poisoned chalice (govt) to Miliband and the other (opposition) to Boris or whoever

Posted

I haven't studied it enough to make any predictions other than I don't think Labour in Scotland nor the liberals in england will do as badly as predicted.

 

Bit miffed I'm only 4th prize though. :D

Guest Bilo
Posted

1) Who will form the next government (5 points)?


Labour Minority


 


2) Which party or parties will have ministers in the next cabinet?


Labour


 


3) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): Con (276), Lab (274), LD (25), SNP (44) (for each: 5pts if spot on; 3pts if within 5 seats; 1pt if 6-10 seats out)


 


4) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): UKIP (3), Greens (1), Plaid (3), DUP (8) (for each: 2 points if spot on; 1 point if only 1 seat out)


 


5) Who will win each of these seats (1 point each; holder in brackets)?


- Loughborough (Lab); Thanet South (Con); Thurrock (Con); Grimsby (Lab); Hastings & Rye (Con); Hartlepool (Lab); Orkney & Shetland (LD); St. Ives (LD); Rochester & Strood (Con), Brighton Pavilion (Green), Bristol W (Lab), Carlisle (Con)


 


6) Name any outgoing cabinet ministers or shadow cabinet ministers who'll lose their seats (2 points for each; 1 point deducted if wrong)


Nicky Morgan, Danny Alexander


 


7) Which party will win the most seats (2 points; 10 points if you correctly predict a tie)


Conservatives


 


8) Name any party leaders who will have resigned within 1 week of the election (3 points for each; 2 points deducted if wrong)


Nigel Farage, Nick Clegg

Posted

Alexander would be classed as a junior minister wouldn't he?

 

Nope. He's junior to Osborne, of course, but Chief Secretary to the Treasury is a full cabinet post. He counts alright.

 

 

I haven't studied it enough to make any predictions other than I don't think Labour in Scotland nor the liberals in england will do as badly as predicted.

 

Bit miffed I'm only 4th prize though. :D

 

Come on, Webbo, play up and play the game! You can't do any worse than me predicting a tie and a UKIP win in Hartlepool.

You might even win 4th prize and get to decorate your own home!

 

Tend to agree with your comment re. Lab in Scotland & Lib Dems in England. I reckon tactical voting is the big factor that isn't being taken into account yet - and 1 poll suggested that more people were prepared to vote tactically than last time.

That could affect results in all sorts of directions, not just Labour voters going Lib Dem in the SW and Tories doing likewise for Clegg in Sheffield Hallam etc.

There could be Labour supporters voting Tory to keep UKIP out (or vice-versa) in some seats, and Tories holding their noses and voting Labour in Scotland to thwart the SNP.

There are bound to be a handful of crazy, unexpected results, I imagine.

 

As Matt has intimated, though, it might prove to be a good election to lose, unless the winner is very skilful or very lucky over the coming months / next year or two.

Posted

Time for a late entry. The only way you win these things is by going different to the other answers. :D


 


Questions:


 


1) Who will form the next government (5 points)?


- Con or Lab overall majority? Con/LD coalition? Lab/SNP coalition? Con/SNP coalition? Lab/LD coalition? Con/UKIP coalition? Con or Lab minority? Other (specify)?


 


Labour/LD coalition.


 


2) Which party or parties will have ministers in the next cabinet (2pts if correct; 1pt deducted if incorrect)


 


Labour and LibDem


 


3) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): Con (306), Lab (258), LD (57), SNP (6) (for each: 5pts if spot on; 3pts if within 5 seats; 1pt if 6-10 seats out)


 


Lab 285 Con 280 LibDem 37 SNP 30


 


4) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): UKIP (0), Greens (1), Plaid (3), DUP (8) (for each: 2 points if spot on; 1 point if only 1 seat out)


 


UKIP 3 Greens 1 Plaid 3 DUP 8


 


5) Who will win each of these seats (1 point each; holder in brackets)?


- Loughborough (Con); Thanet South (Con); Thurrock (Con); Grimsby (Lab); Hastings & Rye (Con); Hartlepool (Lab); Orkney & Shetland (LD); St. Ives (LD); Rochester & Strood (UKIP since byelection), Brighton Pavilion (Green), Bristol W (LD), Carlisle (Con)


 


Loughborough (Lab) Thanet South (UKIP) Thurrock (Lab) Grimsby (Lab) Hasting & Rye (Lab) Hartlepool (Lab) Orkney & Shetland (LD) St Ives (LD) Rochester & Strood (UKIP) Brighton Pavilion (Green) Bristol W (Lab) Carlisle (Lab)


 


6) Name any outgoing cabinet ministers or shadow cabinet ministers who'll lose their seats (2 points for each; 1 point deducted if wrong)


 


Nicky Morgan


Danny Alexander


 


7) Which party will win the most seats (2 points; 10 points if you correctly predict a tie)


 


Labour


 


8) Name any party leaders who will have resigned within 1 week of the election (3 points for each; 2 points deducted if wrong)


 


None -  not within a week anyway.


Posted

1) Who will form the next government (5 points)?


- Con or Lab overall majority? Con/LD coalition? Lab/SNP coalition? Con/SNP coalition? Lab/LD coalition? Con/UKIP coalition? Con or Lab minority? Other (specify)?


 


Conservative/LD/UKIP/DUP. (Fvck it, why not)


 


2) Which party or parties will have ministers in the next cabinet (2pts if correct; 1pt deducted if incorrect)


 


Conservative + Liberal Democrat


 


3) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): Con (306), Lab (258), LD (57), SNP (6) (for each: 5pts if spot on; 3pts if within 5 seats; 1pt if 6-10 seats out)


 


Con 282, Lab 265, LD 28, SNP 50


 


4) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): UKIP (0), Greens (1), Plaid (3), DUP (8) (for each: 2 points if spot on; 1 point if only 1 seat out)


 


UKIP 3, Greens 1, Plaid 3, DUP 8


 


5) Who will win each of these seats (1 point each; holder in brackets)?


- Loughborough (Con); Thanet South (Con); Thurrock (Con); Grimsby (Lab); Hastings & Rye (Con); Hartlepool (Lab); Orkney & Shetland (LD); St. Ives (LD); Rochester & Strood (UKIP since byelection), Brighton Pavilion (Green), Bristol W (LD), Carlisle (Con)


 


Loughborough - Con


Thanet South - UKIP


Thurrock - Con


Grimsby - Lab


Hastings & Rye - Con


Hartlepool - Lab


Orkney & Shetland - LD


St. Ives - LD


Rochester & Strood - Con


Brighton Pavilion - Green


Bristol W - LD


Carlisle - Lab


 


6) Name any outgoing cabinet ministers or shadow cabinet ministers who'll lose their seats (2 points for each; 1 point deducted if wrong)


 


Sadiq Khan, Margaret Curran


 


7) Which party will win the most seats (2 points; 10 points if you correctly predict a tie)


 


Conservative Party


 


8) Name any party leaders who will have resigned within 1 week of the election (3 points for each; 2 points deducted if wrong)


 


None


Posted

Some interesting predictions from Harry LCFC. Good call on Margaret Curran, I suspect; less sure about Sadiq Khan...if the Tories didn't nobble him last time.....

 

Only 7 sets of predictions in so far?! That doesn't include Dr. The Singh, who's getting 500 points deducted for plagiarising MattP. Seriously, Doctor, I know that he's a charismatic leader of men, but you need to rein in your adoration.

 

Prominent Labour activist Delia Smith commented: "A message to the besht foostball poshters in the world...hic...we need some predicstshions here....where are ya...letshbe 'avin you!!" (collapses stadium left)

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_8JLkwzpd0

 

Entries accepted until 9.30pm today. Fantastic prizes (do a proper set of predictions, Doctor, and you could win a night out with Matt - or even with MooseBreath!)

Guest MattP
Posted

Just whacking this in here as well.

 

11214259_1127608453922678_34065039985107

Posted

Can I alter mine Alf, I meant to put labour on 272.

 

 

No probs, Strokes. If you just edit your original post before 9.30pm, the executive committee will accept your request!  :whistle:

Posted

1. Lab/SNP/LD

2. Same

3 con 279

Lab 272

LD 26

SNP 42

4 UKIP 3

Green 1

Plaid 3

DUP 8

5.only change Thanet south UKIP

6. Danny Alexander

7.conservative

8.David Cameron.

I'm not sure why that happens......fùck me I'm turning into ken.

Posted

Final bump.....

 

Come on, folks, let's have a few more entries before 9.30pm! Piss poor showing this is. Rincewind? Webbo? MooseBreath? Bovril? Leicsmac? Anyone? "Where are ya?!", as Delia would ask

 

Put yer predictions where yer mouth is. All the fun of the fair and fab prizes aplenty.

Posted

It's too complex for me, Alf. It's one thing predicting the score, this is like predicting the time, velocity, angle and recipient (or lack thereof) of Jeff Schlupp's passes in each ten minute period of the game.

Can I get any points for just guessing that it will be tory/lib dem coalition mk2?

Posted

Some interesting predictions from Harry LCFC. Good call on Margaret Curran, I suspect; less sure about Sadiq Khan...if the Tories didn't nobble him last time.....

 

Only 7 sets of predictions in so far?! That doesn't include Dr. The Singh, who's getting 500 points deducted for plagiarising MattP. Seriously, Doctor, I know that he's a charismatic leader of men, but you need to rein in your adoration.

 

Entries accepted until 9.30pm today. Fantastic prizes (do a proper set of predictions, Doctor, and you could win a night out with Matt - or even with MooseBreath!)

 

You've produced quite an epic questionnaire I have to say. I had to do research to fill all my answers in!

 

Think that might have put a few people off. It's a little late in the day to suggest this but it might have been worth doing a minor quiz along with the quiz-deluxe you've posted!  :P

Posted

It's too complex for me, Alf. It's one thing predicting the score, this is like predicting the time, velocity, angle and recipient (or lack thereof) of Jeff Schlupp's passes in each ten minute period of the game.

Can I get any points for just guessing that it will be tory/lib dem coalition mk2?

 

Yep, 5pts on offer if you're correct about the coalition (Q.1). We could even be generous and throw in 2pts for Tory & Lib Dem ministers in cabinet (Q.2) & even 2pts for Q.7, assuming that you believe the Tories will win the most seats.

As some questions have points deducted for wrong answers, you could be the winner with that entry!

Posted

You've produced quite an epic questionnaire I have to say. I had to do research to fill all my answers in!

 

Think that might have put a few people off. It's a little late in the day to suggest this but it might have been worth doing a minor quiz along with the quiz-deluxe you've posted!  :P

 

Never opt for moderation when you can go OTT, that's my motto!

Posted

If I enter and I come 4th the missus will expect me to redecorate the living room. I can't take that risk.

Posted

If I enter and I come 4th the missus will expect me to redecorate the living room. I can't take that risk.

If I come forth webbo, you'll be here for the rest of 2015 painting my mansion that daddy gave me.........apparently :rolleyes:

Posted

If I come forth webbo, you'll be here for the rest of 2015 painting my mansion that daddy gave me.........apparently :rolleyes:

You'll have to wait until september. I spend most of the summer on my luxury yacht. 

Posted

Coming10th has its pros and cons depending on my predictions. If Labour win I will have to suffer a Conservative club with  all the doom and gloom crowd and have to take a suicide pill so won't get to say I told you so.  Although I could leave a letter to Alf  'to be opened in the event of my demise' revealing the secret.

If the Tories win I will have to suffer celebrating toff but at least won't have to suffer five more years of Tory rule.

I'd  settle for the 2nd prize which I'd happy go along with without entering.

Guest MattP
Posted

Coming10th has its pros and cons depending on my predictions. If Labour win I will have to suffer a Conservative club with  all the doom and gloom crowd and have to take a suicide pill so won't get to say I told you so.  Although I could leave a letter to Alf  'to be opened in the event of my demise' revealing the secret.

If the Tories win I will have to suffer celebrating toff but at least won't have to suffer five more years of Tory rule.

I'd  settle for the 2nd prize which I'd happy go along with without entering.

 

That would have been opened about 2001 wouldn't it? lol

 

Do you need a nee keyboard Ken? This is just ridiculous with your spacebar,

Posted

That would have been opened about 2001 wouldn't it? lol

 

Do you need a nee keyboard Ken? This is just ridiculous with your spacebar,

I am trying to edit as I go. Any suggestion as to what is wrong?

CH 4 looks good. Paxman is on

Guest MattP
Posted

I am trying to edit as I go. Any suggestion as to what is wrong?

CH 4 looks good. Paxman is on

 

Have you spilt beer on it? I hope so, I wouldn't it to be anything else.

 

Russell Osman is on C4 as well, think I'm going to record that and watch it in a few months when I'm missing my election erection.

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