Alf Bentley Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 Anyone up for an election prediction competition? Entries accepted until 9.30pm on election day. Prizes: - 1st prize: A convivial evening out with MattP at a venue of sophistication (smart dress required; top racing trainers may be in attendance) - 2nd prize: A convivial evening out with Alf Bentley at some shitty Leicester boozer (complimentary pint of ale & pack of Nobby's nuts) - 3rd prize: Attend an autumn LSE politics/economics lecture with future Tory PM KingGTF - 4th prize: Your house redecorated by Webbo (discount rate, no cash in hand) - 5th prize: A convivial evening of poker and poetry with Rincewind (complimentary copy of Down Not Out) - 6th prize: Fly to Korea to experience the Korean education system with Leicsmac (no expense spared, I mean paid - & he won't be there any more) - 7th prize: Fly to Bulgaria to spend a week with Bovril, photographing Eastern Orthodox churches (no expense paid) - 8th prize: An evening at Oadby Wetherspoon's with Buce (feel free to join in the sing-song with all the drunken pensioners) - 9th prize: A "material living investment pack for the squeezed middle", specially designed by Jon the Hat - 10th prize: MooseBreath's identity revealed exclusively to you at a Conservative club of your choosing (cyanide tablet compulsory to avoid further revelation) Questions: 1) Who will form the next government (5 points)? - Con or Lab overall majority? Con/LD coalition? Lab/SNP coalition? Con/SNP coalition? Lab/LD coalition? Con/UKIP coalition? Con or Lab minority? Other (specify)? 2) Which party or parties will have ministers in the next cabinet (2pts if correct; 1pt deducted if incorrect) 3) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): Con (306), Lab (258), LD (57), SNP (6) (for each: 5pts if spot on; 3pts if within 5 seats; 1pt if 6-10 seats out) 4) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): UKIP (0), Greens (1), Plaid (3), DUP (8) (for each: 2 points if spot on; 1 point if only 1 seat out) 5) Who will win each of these seats (1 point each; holder in brackets)? - Loughborough (Con); Thanet South (Con); Thurrock (Con); Grimsby (Lab); Hastings & Rye (Con); Hartlepool (Lab); Orkney & Shetland (LD); St. Ives (LD); Rochester & Strood (UKIP since byelection), Brighton Pavilion (Green), Bristol W (LD), Carlisle (Con) 6) Name any outgoing cabinet ministers or shadow cabinet ministers who'll lose their seats (2 points for each; 1 point deducted if wrong) 7) Which party will win the most seats (2 points; 10 points if you correctly predict a tie) 8) Name any party leaders who will have resigned within 1 week of the election (3 points for each; 2 points deducted if wrong)
Guest MattP Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 What a great post, if you read out the prizes in a Jim Bowen Bullseye accent they sound even better - Innnnnn everything for me on that list. 1) Who will form the next government Labour Minority 2) Which party or parties will have ministers in the next cabinet (2pts if correct; 1pt deducted if incorrect) Labour 3) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): Con (306), Lab (258), LD (57), SNP (6) (for each: 5pts if spot on; 3pts if within 5 seats; 1pt if 6-10 seats out) Con 290 - Lab 265 - LD 25 - SNP 51 4) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): UKIP (0), Greens (1), Plaid (3), DUP (8) (for each: 2 points if spot on; 1 point if only 1 seat out) UKIP 4 - Greens 1 - Plaid 3 - DUP 8 5) Who will win each of these seats (1 point each; holder in brackets)? - Loughborough (Con); Thanet South (Con); Thurrock (Con); Grimsby (Lab); Hastings & Rye (Con); Hartlepool (Lab); Orkney & Shetland (LD); St. Ives (LD); Rochester & Strood (UKIP since byelection), Brighton Pavilion (Green), Bristol W (LD), Carlisle (Con) Loughborough - Con Thanet South - UKIP Thurrock - UKIP Grimsby - Lab Hastings & Rye - Con Hartlepool - Lab Orkney & Shetland - Lib Dems St. Ives - Con Rochester & Strood - UKIP, Brighton Pavilion - Green Bristol W - Lib Dems Carlisle - Con 6) Name any outgoing cabinet ministers or shadow cabinet ministers who'll lose their seats (2 points for each; 1 point deducted if wrong) Danny Alexander Douglas Alexander 7) Which party will win the most seats (2 points; 10 points if you correctly predict a tie) Conservative 8) Name any party leaders who will have resigned within 1 week of the election (3 points for each; 2 points deducted if wrong) None - I think negotiations could last longer than that, if it was a month I'd probably say Clegg and Cameron.
Rincewind Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 Brilliant. I want the second prize. I do not pocess evening wear/dinner suit and cravat or bruges. I don't mind slumming it with you Alf.
Guest MattP Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 Brilliant. I want the second prize. I do not pocess evening wear/dinner suit and cravat or bruges. I don't mind slumming it with you Alf. Looks like you've had enough already Ken.
Rincewind Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 Looks like you've had enough already Ken. Not started yet. I know my place.
Buce Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 Not sure about that, Alf - last time I went drinking it cost me nearly 30 pence a pint.. Do you think I'm made of money?
ramboacdc Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 can i still play and take none of the prizes please? they all sound just...so...awful!
Alf Bentley Posted 1 May 2015 Author Posted 1 May 2015 6) Name any outgoing cabinet ministers or shadow cabinet ministers who'll lose their seats (2 points for each; 1 point deducted if wrong) Danny Alexander Douglas Alexander Esther McVey Impressively speedy response, Matt! I'm tied up again this weekend, but will do mine early next week....some will be very similar to yours, some different, I think. According to the official site, Esther McVey is not a cabinet minister, just attends cabinet as a junior minister, so I'll ignore that one (no points either way) in case other people start whacking in more obscure ministers. Will probably find that it's only you and me who can be bothered to enter, though. Not sure about that, Alf - last time I went drinking it cost me nearly 30 pence a pint.. Do you think I'm made of money? Probably still costs 30p a pint in Oadby Wetherspoons, a place that I spent some time when we lived in Oadby (2001-2006). I can remember paying 35p a pint at the student union bar in 1980. Wouldn't get half a pack of nuts for that now. can i still play and take none of the prizes please? they all sound just...so...awful! Yes, of course you can! 11th prize: A month listening to dodgy heavy metal bands in the Vietnam jungle with ramboacdc.
Guest MattP Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 Impressively speedy response, Matt! I'm tied up again this weekend, but will do mine early next week....some will be very similar to yours, some different, I think. According to the official site, Esther McVey is not a cabinet minister, just attends cabinet as a junior minister, so I'll ignore that one (no points either way) in case other people start whacking in more obscure ministers. Will probably find that it's only you and me who can be bothered to enter, though. I've done all my bets for things that relate to a lot of this anyway so I could do it off the top of my head, of course she's a junior minister, rookie error. Be a shame to see her go if she does, fittest Tory I think there has ever been behind Thatcher.
ramboacdc Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 Yes, of course you can! 11th prize: A month listening to dodgy heavy metal bands in the Vietnam jungle with ramboacdc. haha i love it!
ramboacdc Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 1) Who will form the next government (5 points)? - Labour Minority 2) Which party or parties will have ministers in the next cabinet (2pts if correct; 1pt deducted if incorrect) Labour 3) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): Con (306), Lab (258), LD (57), SNP (6) (for each: 5pts if spot on; 3pts if within 5 seats; 1pt if 6-10 seats out) con: 282 Lab 273 Lib (this pains me): 17 SNP: 55 4) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): UKIP (0), Greens (1), Plaid (3), DUP (8) (for each: 2 points if spot on; 1 point if only 1 seat out) UKIP 1, Greens 1, Plaid, 3, DUP 8 5) Who will win each of these seats (1 point each; holder in brackets)? - Loughborough (Con) LABOUR ; Thanet South (Con); Conservative Thurrock (Con); Labour Grimsby (Lab); UKIP Hastings & Rye (Con); Conservative Hartlepool (Lab); labour Orkney & Shetland (LD); SNP St. Ives (LD); CON Rochester & Strood (UKIP since byelection), CON Brighton Pavilion (Green), Green Bristol W (LD), Lab Carlisle (Con) LAB 6) Name any outgoing cabinet ministers or shadow cabinet ministers who'll lose their seats (2 points for each; 1 point deducted if wrong) Danny alexander, 7) Which party will win the most seats (2 points; 10 points if you correctly predict a tie) Conservative 8) Name any party leaders who will have resigned within 1 week of the election (3 points for each; 2 points deducted if wrong) Farage, Clegg.
Alf Bentley Posted 1 May 2015 Author Posted 1 May 2015 3) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): Con (306), Lab (258), LD (57), SNP (6) (for each: 5pts if spot on; 3pts if within 5 seats; 1pt if 6-10 seats out) Looks like you've forgotten Q.3, unless you're predicting the same as last time. No rush....entries open till 9.30pm Thurs Off for weekend now & not on FoxesTalk until at least late Sunday.
bovril Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 Prediction - OzLeicester comes 1st and converts MattP to veganism. Webbo makes the trip to Korea and defects to the communist North. Rincewind comes 7th and lives out his days in an Orthodox monastery. Moosebreath is revealed as Nigel Pearson, who then admits he also posts under the aliases 'BNET' and 'Dickov22'.
Strokes Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 1. Lab/SNP/LD 2. Same 3 con 279 Lab 262 LD 26 SNP 42 4 UKIP 3 Green 1 Plaid 3 DUP 8 5.only change Thanet south UKIP 6. Danny Alexander 7.conservative 8.David Cameron.
Jimothy Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 1. Lab/SNP/LD 2. Same 3 con 279 Lab 262 LD 26 SNP 42 4 UKIP 3 Green 1 Plaid 3 DUP 8 5.only change Thanet south UKIP 6. Danny Alexander 7.conservative 8.David Cameron. Alexander would be classed as a junior minister wouldn't he?
ramboacdc Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 Looks like you've forgotten Q.3, unless you're predicting the same as last time. No rush....entries open till 9.30pm Thurs Off for weekend now & not on FoxesTalk until at least late Sunday. oh balls i did!
MooseBreath Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 If you win the 10th prize, bring your own gimp suit if you would please. I'll set up another space in the basement.
Jimothy Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 What's the booby prize? A night out with Dangerous Tiger.
Mark_w Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 1) Labour Minority 2) Labour 3) Con: 276Lab: 269LD: 25SNP: 55 4) UKIP: 2 Greens: 1 Plaid: 3DUP: 8 5) Loughborough: Conservative Thanet South: Conservative Thurrock: UKIP Grimsby: Labour Hastings & Rye: Labour Hartlepool: Labour Orkney & Shetland: Lib Dems St. Ives: Conservative Rochester & Strood: Conservative Brighton Pavilion: Green Bristol W: Labour Carlisle: Labour 6) Danny Alexander 7) Conservative 8) Nigel Farage, David Cameron
Dr The Singh Posted 1 May 2015 Posted 1 May 2015 What a great post, if you read out the prizes in a Jim Bowen Bullseye accent they sound even better - Innnnnn everything for me on that list. 1) Who will form the next government Labour Minority 2) Which party or parties will have ministers in the next cabinet (2pts if correct; 1pt deducted if incorrect) Labour 3) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): Con (306), Lab (258), LD (57), SNP (6) (for each: 5pts if spot on; 3pts if within 5 seats; 1pt if 6-10 seats out) Con 290 - Lab 265 - LD 25 - SNP 51 4) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): UKIP (0), Greens (1), Plaid (3), DUP (8) (for each: 2 points if spot on; 1 point if only 1 seat out) UKIP 4 - Greens 1 - Plaid 3 - DUP 8 5) Who will win each of these seats (1 point each; holder in brackets)? - Loughborough (Con); Thanet South (Con); Thurrock (Con); Grimsby (Lab); Hastings & Rye (Con); Hartlepool (Lab); Orkney & Shetland (LD); St. Ives (LD); Rochester & Strood (UKIP since byelection), Brighton Pavilion (Green), Bristol W (LD), Carlisle (Con) Loughborough - Con Thanet South - UKIP Thurrock - UKIP Grimsby - Lab Hastings & Rye - Con Hartlepool - Lab Orkney & Shetland - Lib Dems St. Ives - Con Rochester & Strood - UKIP, Brighton Pavilion - Green Bristol W - Lib Dems Carlisle - Con 6) Name any outgoing cabinet ministers or shadow cabinet ministers who'll lose their seats (2 points for each; 1 point deducted if wrong) Danny Alexander Douglas Alexander 7) Which party will win the most seats (2 points; 10 points if you correctly predict a tie) Conservative 8) Name any party leaders who will have resigned within 1 week of the election (3 points for each; 2 points deducted if wrong) None - I think negotiations could last longer than that, if it was a month I'd probably say Clegg and Cameron. What he said
Jon the Hat Posted 5 May 2015 Posted 5 May 2015 What a great post, if you read out the prizes in a Jim Bowen Bullseye accent they sound even better - Innnnnn everything for me on that list. 1) Who will form the next government Labour Minority 2) Which party or parties will have ministers in the next cabinet (2pts if correct; 1pt deducted if incorrect) Labour 3) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): Con (306), Lab (258), LD (57), SNP (6) (for each: 5pts if spot on; 3pts if within 5 seats; 1pt if 6-10 seats out) Con 290 - Lab 265 - LD 25 - SNP 51 4) How many seats will be won by each of these parties (2010 totals in brackets): UKIP (0), Greens (1), Plaid (3), DUP (8) (for each: 2 points if spot on; 1 point if only 1 seat out) UKIP 4 - Greens 1 - Plaid 3 - DUP 8 5) Who will win each of these seats (1 point each; holder in brackets)? - Loughborough (Con); Thanet South (Con); Thurrock (Con); Grimsby (Lab); Hastings & Rye (Con); Hartlepool (Lab); Orkney & Shetland (LD); St. Ives (LD); Rochester & Strood (UKIP since byelection), Brighton Pavilion (Green), Bristol W (LD), Carlisle (Con) Loughborough - Con Thanet South - UKIP Thurrock - UKIP Grimsby - Lab Hastings & Rye - Con Hartlepool - Lab Orkney & Shetland - Lib Dems St. Ives - Con Rochester & Strood - UKIP, Brighton Pavilion - Green Bristol W - Lib Dems Carlisle - Con 6) Name any outgoing cabinet ministers or shadow cabinet ministers who'll lose their seats (2 points for each; 1 point deducted if wrong) Danny Alexander Douglas Alexander 7) Which party will win the most seats (2 points; 10 points if you correctly predict a tie) Conservative 8) Name any party leaders who will have resigned within 1 week of the election (3 points for each; 2 points deducted if wrong) None - I think negotiations could last longer than that, if it was a month I'd probably say Clegg and Cameron. You make no sense. With the numbers you give, Con+LD+DUP will have a majority, in which case expect either a new coalition or a minority Conservative government.
Guest MattP Posted 5 May 2015 Posted 5 May 2015 You make no sense. With the numbers you give, Con+LD+DUP will have a majority, in which case expect either a new coalition or a minority Conservative government. Add those 3 together and you are still short of a majority (323, although they could force through with no SF) - Even it was did there is no chance of the liberals going into a coalition with the DUP involved. The money that the DUP and Nigel Dodds are wanting as well would make it difficult for the Tories to put through a Queens speech that would garner support. I think the Tories will be quite happy to sit back and watch Labour try and govern on a minority for a bit, they'll make a right pig's ear of it and look like a total joke by the time it collapses.
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