A united Ireland

[GaelicFox]

http://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/prepare-for-border-poll-in-the-wake-of-brexit-taoiseach-34894843.html

 

 

For the first time in 100 years the discussion on a United Ireland has made it to the political arena in Ireland / UK/ Europe. 

 

Brexit has triggered the discussions and now nearly a century after the partition of Ireland it looks like there is a sound platform for a unification referendum.

 

my fears and worries are if the ballot box denies the unification people their perceived right then the armalite will once again be used by terrorists in the north. No one wants to see a return to those days , the U.K. Security forces have enough on its plates dealing with Islamic terrorism. 

 

Personally I could never see the vote in Ulster passing a Unification decision. But I also said that about a brexit 

 

Rocky and fascinating times ahead at home 

 

[Beliall]

I don't understand, I thought Northern Ireland wanted to not be part of the UK, so why would they not want to be unified with Ireland either?

[Nick]

2 hours ago, GaelicFox said:

http://m.independent.ie/business/brexit/prepare-for-border-poll-in-the-wake-of-brexit-taoiseach-34894843.html

 

 

For the first time in 100 years the discussion on a United Ireland has made it to the political arena in Ireland / UK/ Europe. 

 

Brexit has triggered the discussions and now nearly a century after the partition of Ireland it looks like there is a sound platform for a unification referendum.

 

my fears and worries are if the ballot box denies the unification people their perceived right then the armalite will once again be used by terrorists in the north. No one wants to see a return to those days , the U.K. Security forces have enough on its plates dealing with Islamic terrorism. 

 

Personally I could never see the vote in Ulster passing a Unification decision. But I also said that about a brexit 

 

Rocky and fascinating times ahead at home 

 

Armalite and the northern terrorists? Do explain.....

[davieG]

Didn't they vote to leave the EU?

[foxy boxing]

scotland and northern ireland voted to stay in the eu while england and wales voted out

[GaelicFox]

29 minutes ago, davieG said:

Didn't they vote to leave the EU?

No they voted to remain in the EU

[GaelicFox]

41 minutes ago, Swan Lesta said:

Armalite and the northern terrorists? Do explain.....

By Northern terrorists I mean nutters in Ulster who like to shoot da Fcuk out of each other 

 

The armalite AR-15 was the weapon of choice for those terrorists around the glens where my grand parents lived , the actually called the gun "the widowmaker" such was its fearsome reputation. Many still exist buried  on both sides of the divide ! 

 

if you heard someone being send for "a widow" in Crossmaglen or Forkhill they weren't being sent for Mrs Casey who lost old frank Casey ! 

[GaelicFox]

1 hour ago, Beliall said:

I don't understand, I thought Northern Ireland wanted to not be part of the UK, so why would they not want to be unified with Ireland either?

Ulster loyalists will and have given their lives to maintain the union 

 

a ballot box won't be allowed to break that union by many in Northern Ireland. 

 

My own personal opionin is a republic of Northern Ireland might be the most likely long term solution 

[davieG]

ok thanks

[Alf Bentley]

11 hours ago, davieG said:

Didn't they vote to leave the EU?

 

As others have said, N. Ireland voted Remain - by about 56%-44%.

 

But that doesn't tell the whole story. Predominantly Catholic/Nationalist/Republican areas voted overwhelmingly for Remain - 78% in Derry, 74% in West Belfast.

Overall, predominantly Protestant/Unionist/Loyalist areas voted Leave, but by a much smaller margin. Indeed some such areas voted Remain (including most of Belfast).

 

The DUP, now the main unionist party (Paisley's lot) supported Leave, but the Official Unionists (what used to be Trimble's lot) supported Remain.

 

Under the peace process, there can only be a vote on a united Ireland if it seems that a majority in the North want it. There is a built-in unionist majority (DK exact figures, but about 55% Protestant/Unionist and 45% Catholic/Irish Nationalist), so any prospect of this seemed a long way off - as Catholics have a higher birth rate, they might eventually constitute more than 50%, but not for a fair while yet.

 

Some on the Nationalist/Republican side are now hoping that a Protestant Unionist minority will support a united Ireland due to their opposition to Brexit - this could give them their 50%, in theory.

 

As it stands, I cannot see that happening. However, if the tricky consequences of Brexit for N. Ireland are mishandled, that could happen. Financially, Northern Ireland is one of the regions that does very well out of EU funding. If the UK doesn't replicate that funding after Brexit (e.g. if they give the money to the NHS instead, as the Leave campaign promised), that would cause resentment. N. Ireland also has a lot of cross-border trade with the Irish Republic, which could be hampered if the UK (including Northern Ireland) leaves the single market and the Irish Republic stays in it - e.g. if cross-border tariffs, customs checks and red tape are instituted.

 

Then there is the whole issue of the Brexiteers' promise to "control our borders"....because, of course, Northern Ireland will have a land border with the EU (Irish Republic). After Brexit, Poles, Romanians and other EU citizens will still enjoy freedom of movement to enter the Republic of Ireland. If the UK retains its current open border with the Irish Republic, those immigrants will be free to enter the UK via Northern Ireland. If the UK reinstates a more formal land border with the Irish Republic, that will be massively controversial with Republicans who do not accept partition, but who now mostly tolerate the open arrangement under the peace process. British border posts on the Irish border could easily be a target for dissident Republicans, might need military protection again, encouraging more Republican attacks, Loyalist retaliation etc. That's apart from the more mundane issue of cross-border traders being pissed off at extra expense and disruption for their businesses.

 

My guess is that, if the British handle a very tricky situation sensitively, then there won't be significant Protestant/Unionist support for a United Ireland and there won't be a serious return to Republican/Loyalist violence. If it is handled insensitively, however - cumbersome or militarised border posts, removal of EU investment funds for the region - then a united Ireland or a return to violence could be a serious prospect. The Brexit people did very little thinking about the serious prospects of Brexit - and the Govt now needs to do a lot of serious thinking on this issue, amongst many others.

[GaelicFox]

9 hours ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

As others have said, N. Ireland voted Remain - by about 56%-44%.

 

But that doesn't tell the whole story. Predominantly Catholic/Nationalist/Republican areas voted overwhelmingly for Remain - 78% in Derry, 74% in West Belfast.

Overall, predominantly Protestant/Unionist/Loyalist areas voted Leave, but by a much smaller margin. Indeed some such areas voted Remain (including most of Belfast).

 

The DUP, now the main unionist party (Paisley's lot) supported Leave, but the Official Unionists (what used to be Trimble's lot) supported Remain.

 

Under the peace process, there can only be a vote on a united Ireland if it seems that a majority in the North want it. There is a built-in unionist majority (DK exact figures, but about 55% Protestant/Unionist and 45% Catholic/Irish Nationalist), so any prospect of this seemed a long way off - as Catholics have a higher birth rate, they might eventually constitute more than 50%, but not for a fair while yet.

 

Some on the Nationalist/Republican side are now hoping that a Protestant Unionist minority will support a united Ireland due to their opposition to Brexit - this could give them their 50%, in theory.

 

As it stands, I cannot see that happening. However, if the tricky consequences of Brexit for N. Ireland are mishandled, that could happen. Financially, Northern Ireland is one of the regions that does very well out of EU funding. If the UK doesn't replicate that funding after Brexit (e.g. if they give the money to the NHS instead, as the Leave campaign promised), that would cause resentment. N. Ireland also has a lot of cross-border trade with the Irish Republic, which could be hampered if the UK (including Northern Ireland) leaves the single market and the Irish Republic stays in it - e.g. if cross-border tariffs, customs checks and red tape are instituted.

 

Then there is the whole issue of the Brexiteers' promise to "control our borders"....because, of course, Northern Ireland will have a land border with the EU (Irish Republic). After Brexit, Poles, Romanians and other EU citizens will still enjoy freedom of movement to enter the Republic of Ireland. If the UK retains its current open border with the Irish Republic, those immigrants will be free to enter the UK via Northern Ireland. If the UK reinstates a more formal land border with the Irish Republic, that will be massively controversial with Republicans who do not accept partition, but who now mostly tolerate the open arrangement under the peace process. British border posts on the Irish border could easily be a target for dissident Republicans, might need military protection again, encouraging more Republican attacks, Loyalist retaliation etc. That's apart from the more mundane issue of cross-border traders being pissed off at extra expense and disruption for their businesses.

 

My guess is that, if the British handle a very tricky situation sensitively, then there won't be significant Protestant/Unionist support for a United Ireland and there won't be a serious return to Republican/Loyalist violence. If it is handled insensitively, however - cumbersome or militarised border posts, removal of EU investment funds for the region - then a united Ireland or a return to violence could be a serious prospect. The Brexit people did very little thinking about the serious prospects of Brexit - and the Govt now needs to do a lot of serious thinking on this issue, amongst many others.

Jesus 

 

thats spot on !

 

i will say 20-25% of the catholic community would never vote for a. United ireland , they see the south as a risky proposition regarding Heath care etc... No NHS in the south 

 

As you London committing to manage Northern Ireland sensitively and sensibly is the biggest danger in all this 

[Great Boos Up]

I did notice on my last visit how the religious divisions melted away a little during the GAA all Ireland gaelic football. Although the final broke Tyrone hearts. Actually spent that time in hospitals, eventually Newry (right on the border) Wow it's like Lincolnski.

 

Anyway was thinking that 50 political years from now maybe a date could be set for a united Ireland sometime in a 100 years or so like Hong Kong.

Although I do understand as the only protestant son of a long line of split orange/green men that if you have a solution you don't understand the problem.

On the plus side, that week I think I converted half of Tyrone to support Leicester.

[The Horse's Mouth]

what could go wrong???