This detailed analysis from April highlights what we *used* to do so well

[carled]

Full article (with diagrams so no point in putting it in here!)

http://spielverlagerung.com/2016/04/16/leicester-city-smart-as-eleven-foxes/

 

Edit - from that article linked above:

Quote

Sans Kanté, the Foxes couldn’t work that effectively. The 25-year-old does all the little things right – like dropping a few yards back, after the ball moved to one of the wingers, to offer a passing option in backfield, avoiding the threat of an immediate loss of possession. As opposed to Drinkwater, Kanté often chooses the safe option at first glance, yet ultimately helps his team to maintain the ball-circulation or simply helps his team-mates to make the right decision.

Kanté is basically an assistant all over the pitch. He has a hand in all things that happen. To put it in a nutshell, Kanté is football.

 

[carled]

And more here... http://statsbomb.com/2016/04/leicester-city-need-for-speed/

[carled]

And from StatsBomb: http://statsbomb.com/2016/08/leicester-city-201617-season-preview-what-comes-next/

 

At the start of the season most on here would have torn this to shreds. What do you think now?

Quote

Leicester City won the Premier League title?

 

That actually happened. It’s been around three months since Leicester clinched the title and I still can’t believe it. We live in a world where Leicester are going to host Champions League matches and be seeded into pot 1, which is mind boggling on so many levels. The Liverpool run of 2013-14 was surprising but at least it could be partly explained by simply saying Luis Suarez was awesome and everyone else just kind of fell into their natural place. You really can’t do the same thing with Leicester even if we mention all the big teams who disappointed last season.

The PL is a different place from where we last left it in May. The Manchester clubs have new high profile managers and are spending loads of money, and maybe this time more sensibly. Chelsea are retooling under Antonio Conte’s leadership and making solid new additions. Arsenal might be adding more high profiled players to their squad and Liverpool are now going to have a full season under Jurgen Klopp. The law of averages would dictate that Leicester will fall into a group alongside the likes of Everton and Southampton where scrapping for 7th place is the highest ceiling, but why rule them out? Maybe they have one more trick up their sleeve that could somehow see them contend once more for the CL? Who knows.

So that’s where we’re at with Leicester. They completed the greatest title shock in the history of modern football and it’s generally established by most that the best they could probably do is a potential Europa League spot. It’s a weird acceptance  if you support them but that’s looking like the most likely scenario. Plus given just how unlikely their achievement was, the club probably bought themselves so much goodwill with their fan base that finishing mid-table over the next few seasons would be just fine.

 

The Numbers:

I think you guys know the gambit by now: sky high conversion rates on both ends of the pitch which were rare for a team without the glut of talent that the likes of Manchester City have had, alongside both shot and xG numbers which were mostly pretty decent, When it came to generating big chances, they were quite proficient at it but it was still nothing that resembled a traditional title winner. Since the 2009-10 season, Leicester’s scoring% ranked the 6th highest during that time span and their save% 16th highest. Even the most optimistic of Leicester fans would concede that won’t happen again. A penalty differential of +9 is the second best mark that I could find on record in the PL over the last decade, with only Chelsea from 2012-13 beating it. There was a stretch of games in the second half of the season where it felt like opponents couldn’t buy a goal:Add that all into a pot alongside great injury luck, no European football and that’s a potent blend that somehow went from 5000-1 odds to win the title. Leicester were a fine enough team if you remove the crazy variance going their way and they did improve as the season went on but there’s still little to suggest that they could replicate much of this and make another go at a CL spot. Even the counter attacks and speed data which made them famous last season could stand to decline substantially as teams work them out more (just ask Brendan Rodgers after the 2013-14 season). Looking at simple regression to estimate a team talent level, the absolute best case scenario I could make was Leicester were around a 70 point team, so basically the 3rd best team in the league behind the North London clubs.

Leicester’s best hope for repeating another shock might have to be doing what Tottenham did under Pochettino between 2014-16 and Manchester City under Mancini between 2010-12 and just improving substantially from a team that were around break even in shot numbers to around the 60-65% range that’s normally been for PL contenders. Does grandpa Ranieri have that still in him? Even when Man City improved as a team in 2011-12, they had the benefit of buying Sergio Aguero and Samir Nasri to kick them up to title contention. Ranieri is a realist and he knows that it will be tough.

 

Transfers

One of the things suggested as Leicester were completing their shock season was because of the giant windfall of PL TV money and CL money, they could potentially fight off bigger clubs trying to poach their stars and even add to the squad to combat for more games next season and an overall tougher league to compete in.

So far that rhetoric has kind of been true. Currently as it stands, Leicester have only lost Kante to Chelsea and while the reports suggesting Mahrez would follow suit to Arsenal have died down, it’s still a bit uncertain. It’s somewhat amusing that Vardy could be the only player of the trio to stay after his dalliance with Arsenal given at his age, he stands to lose out the most. But hey, shit happens in football sometimes.

Also let’s get this out of the way because I know this is going to rear its ugly head: Namplays Mendy and N’Golo Kante aren’t the same player just because they’re athletic, around the same size, black and played in France. Kante is one of the best counter attacking initiators in the world from the central midfield position, and Mendy isn’t that. Back in his days at Caen, this ability was present and he landed on the perfect PL team to showcase that trait to a larger audience.

Now that we’ve got that settled; I do like Mendy. He’s talented and was part of a terrific midfield at Nice that was probably the best non PSG midfield trio in France helping them overachieve last season, but he’s not Kante. He’s a different player and profiles much more like a traditional defensive midfielder with very intriguing passing range. Also he played on a Nice side that was diametrically opposite to Leicester. When he or another of their midfield three won the ball, it meant restarting their possession actions more times than not. So it remains to be seen just how good a fit he’d be for Ranieri if they stick to being a counter attacking side, although he did have him at Monaco a few years back.

 

Ahmed Musa? I don’t know. I mean 12 goals and 5 assists is fine production  and getting that this season would be good value for his transfer fee but Russian PL players haven’t had the greatest track record of success in the PL so it’s fair to be skeptical of him being a success. Bartosz Kapustka had a solid tournament and at his reported fee, he’s a sensible gamble considering respected judges are high on him as a player.

I don’t know how feasible this would’ve been and he’s still working his way back from an ACL tear, but I would’ve loved to seen Leicester take a run at Nabil Fekir. Readers will know how much I loved Fekir and although he profiles more as a second striker or number 10, he could’ve been a fantastic gamble at Leicester. Who knows how much Lyon would’ve demanded for his services although finishing as well as they did without him might’ve helped with his price. Again though, he did have a major knee injury and it still needs to be proven that he’s gotten back to 100% and have that burst to his game again. But in the event of a Mahrez sale, he would be one of the best bets to replicate his production.

Having said all that, this is still a pretty thin squad and they have to deal with European football as well. The PL doesn’t have the greatest reputation for tactical diversity or match day game planning for opponents, but with the quality of coaches at the top you have to believe that Leicester won’t be afforded the same opportunities to turn games into track meets. This will mean a probable adjustment in terms of style of play, which will lead further credence to the “tinkerman” label that Claudio Ranieri has garnered, but getting this team to contend for a top 4 spot again would require some of the finest coaching we’ve seen from a PL manager in years.

 

Conclusion

I think it’s pretty safe to say that Leicester won’t win the PL title and their odds for getting back to the top four again are also not great. Bookies have generally given Leicester the 7th best odds of qualifying for the CL, way below the likes of Tottenham or Liverpool. Though they’re no longer the 5000-1 underdogs, still being in the region of 28/1 to win the title is steep odds. With European football to deal with and a tougher league to navigate, not as many breaks will be afforded to them as last year. Between their over performance plus legitimate skepticism with the likes of Vardy and even Mahrez replicating similar seasons, there’s just so many variables going against them that finishing in the top 4 again would alone be just about as remarkable an achievement as winning the title last year.

Having said all that, Leicester on a player trading aspect have done well to consolidate their standing as possibly the best of the rest in the league. To this point they’ve kept two of the core trio that drove them to the title. Mendy is a solid buy at his price even though he’s not Kante, perhaps Musa bucks the trend of Russian PL imports and he turns out to be a good buy at his price too. If Mahrez stays for another season, then it becomes a bit more feasible to suggest that they can still contend for a Europa League spot. The seeds are there for the club to join Southampton and the likes as solid mid table clubs who can punch a little bit above their weight, which while nowhere near as exciting as winning the league, is still a perfectly fine niche to live within. Leicester finishing as most project them to finish at around 7-9th place would still be a fantastic season and it shouldn’t be looked down upon just because they found the pot of gold previously.

 

Prediction

7th-9th, but hey, Champions League football at the King Power Stadium!

 

[Barky]

So what they're saying is, replacing ngolo kante with andy king has weakened our team?! I'm shocked and appalled.

[carled]

Also from Statsbomb and written on October 31st:

Quote

Do or don’t write off Leicester?

Back here in the odd version of reality christened “2016”, it’s painfully obvious that Leicester are prioritising the Champions League.

 

Let THAT sink in.

 

They are putting together some genuinely wretched numbers in the league; giving up an extra 2.5 shots on target per game is seriously weak. Expected goals is kinder to them–for all that they are a couple or three goals behind pace– and it’s likely that woeful accuracy (27% of all shots are on target, 3rd worst in league) will pick up over time, but it’s less a title defence so far and more a farewell tour. And within the accuracy stats are further insights: Leicester’s ability to land their own shots on target and prevent the opposition from doing the same was at “top five teams this decade” levels last year (+7.3%), whereas so far this year it’s in the basement (-10%). This is the kind of stuff that bounces around the place and is subject to huge variance, and now, with some aplomb, they’ve landed on the wrong side of it. Their all shot conversion is flat too, which is novel for them, and the last beacon of positive variance to cling on to is that the few shots they are getting on target are flying in (40%) just like the good old days. Of course, in the bigger picture, this team will be fine and will find a safe place in mid table somewhere, but throw all that into the mixer and it’s a different, far more familiar world.

 

Apart from the part where they top their Champions League group.

This is all backing up the point I was trying to make elsewhere - we will not achieve success by attempting to continue to nick results. We rode our luck way beyond what statistics will usually support for a long time and now we're seeing the consequential flip side that is starting to balance out that over-achievement. Those on here saying "don't panic", etc. are failing to take note of a trend that has been on the way since the start of the year really. Personally I think this is a particularly good time to be highly concerned, whilst not yet hammering on the panic button. I'd be amazed if the owners, behind the scenes, weren't having some fairly stern meetings with Ranieri in order to be assured that he has a plan to move the team forward.  If this run of performances continues (I think they'd be happier if we were playing better and at least troubling the opposition a bit more, even if the results still weren't coming), I don't think they would leave it much into the new year before moving Claudio "upstairs" or even out. Relegation is not likely, but nor was winning the title last year.

[carled]

2 minutes ago, Barky said:

So what they're saying is, replacing ngolo kante with andy king has weakened our team?! I'm shocked and appalled.

No, they've been saying for the last year that our statistics are unsustainable.  That we defied them as long as we did is the miracle that won us the league. If Kante had got injured in March we wouldn't have won the league. We got lucky with (lack of) injuries and results. Now we're not getting so lucky. It happens.

[leicesterlad1989]

STATS STATS F'ING STATS!!! Sick of reading about 'em!

 

You can manipulate statistics for any particular agenda. When we were winning it didn't matter what the stats said because we were winning, yet we lose a few games and now suddenly we were riding our luck last season?!

 

You could argue that if Vardy or Mahrez got injured, we may have not won the bloody league too.

 

Lets face it, the players have not hit the heights of last season. It's as simple as that. As a unit they have been poor. Drinkwater (other than Sunday) has been head and shoulders above the rest. Mahrez has shown glimpses of brilliance. Vardy has been non-existent.

 

Do we miss Kante? Certainly but we won the league as a team. I don't see that team spirit of last season...yet.

 

**** what the STATS say, we are playing poor.

[carled]

6 minutes ago, leicesterlad1989 said:

STATS STATS F'ING STATS!!! Sick of reading about 'em!

 

You can manipulate statistics for any particular agenda. When we were winning it didn't matter what the stats said because we were winning, yet we lose a few games and now suddenly we were riding our luck last season?!

 

You could argue that if Vardy or Mahrez got injured, we may have not won the bloody league too.

 

Lets face it, the players have not hit the heights of last season. It's as simple as that. As a unit they have been poor. Drinkwater (other than Sunday) has been head and shoulders above the rest. Mahrez has shown glimpses of brilliance. Vardy has been non-existent.

 

Do we miss Kante? Certainly but we won the league as a team. I don't see that team spirit of last season...yet.

 

**** what the STATS say, we are playing poor.

Stats are what make people who know how to use them, make money.  Stats are what tells professional gamblers where to make bets and where not to.  Stats, if used correctly, can show trends and problems.  They were showing we had a problem last year but luck & team spirit pulled us through.  Take out luck and team spirit and what do we have left?  Oh yeah, the stats that show that we aren't going to be winning many games using the current style of play, basically.  You are welcome to fiddle while Rome burns. I'd rather someone starting looking for a fire extinguisher at the club.

[leicesterlad1989]

Since when was a discussion about the current state of our football and the stats associated to that, suddenly about professional gambling?

 

Of course stats are useful in other climates but I couldn't give a flying **** about stats associated to football. I suppose we were lucky that Vardy, Mahrez and Kante all had amazing seasons? I am sure we were lucky that we had such a solid defence at the end of last season? Team spirit alone did not pull us through last season. We had players performing at the top of their game. These same players aren't now. The only stat that is currently useful is the win to loss ratio, which is currently poor.

 

Football is a game that is played on the pitch. You can study stats as much as you want but there are so many differentials and anomaly's that ultimately you can manipulate them for whatever you want to show.

 

I don't need stats to show me what's going on. I go to the games and see it for myself. I'd much rather Ranieri concentrate on whats going happening on the pitch, rather than studding ****ing numbers.   

[NotTheMarketLeader]

Umm. 

 

The OP said we would be tearing the opinions within these 'articles' to shreds. 

 

Overall I don't think many on here thought we would win the PL again this year, which is the gist of what we read there. 

 

I do however KNOW that you cannot win a PL title by 10 pts over a 38 game season by being 'lucky'. That only happens by being the best team over the period - end of. 

 

As as far as this guy's betting is concerned, by concentrating on what he thought should happen based on his own research during last season, he must must have lost a ****ing fortune.

 

Imagine the poor bastard, each week waiting and expecting our shit team's 

'stats' to revert to his expectation of the norm - which it never did! 

 

Did he never consider there was a reason it never reverted - that it wasn't 'luck'? 

 

He must have lost and lost and lost on us, and yet still has the temerity to proclaim to be some sage of football analysis, having proven over a full season he got us totally wrong as did every other 'expert' .

 

To be successful at betting you have to do two things - swim against the tide and get it right -not go with the the mainstream of opinion and get it wrong ffs! 

 

 

 

[possiblygeorge]

We have speed, why do we look so slow is what's concerning 

[RumbleFox]

Howdy all

 

People seem to read an article, take a few bits out they don't agree with or think are wrong and then attack the whole thing based upon those small sections.  Weird the reaction that this is getting.  I thought nothing more or less than "that was a interesting read and probably just about right in most respects".  I think all he is stating is that, statistically, it would be very unlikely for us to do again this year what happened last year and some people have then taken the "well what does he know, we were the best team, he is an idiot odds mean nothing and stats are for losers?!?" approach to answering.  By doing so I think they miss the point.  Just because we defied the odds last season does not mean the odds are wrong, or that stats cannot be trusted.  It just means that every now and then something extraordinary can happen.  Of course sometimes things happen that are against the odds or statistically very unlikely but, on average, if one were a betting man you would win more times than not if you followed the stats.

 

Last season was an anomaly, a sporting miracle and may never be repeated in any of our lifetimes.  That does not take anything away from the team or admit that "we were lucky".  In fact, stats and odds make what happened last season all the more beautiful.  It is the fact that sometimes all that goes out the window for one afternoon, or one week, or one tournament or, in our case, one lucky, wonderful, beautiful season that makes sport in general and football more specifically so brilliant.  Last season a team defied all the odds, used their skill, team work and ,yes, a little bit of luck, and pulled off something none of us are likely to see ever again.  We should be grateful it was Leicester. I feel the best we can hope for is steady improvement which, despite results not living up to last year, we probably are dong if you cancel the miracle of last season out.  We are certainly better than we were a few years ago and I can see us slowly building on the foundations we have.

 

Anyway, I am just pleased that I got to witness last season and until the general trend, not including last season, starts to be negative I will not be too worried.  If anything, I quite like being a bit shite again.

 

Cheers

 

Rumble

 

X

[FireFox]

2 hours ago, carled said:

No, they've been saying for the last year that our statistics are unsustainable.  That we defied them as long as we did is the miracle that won us the league. If Kante had got injured in March we wouldn't have won the league. We got lucky with (lack of) injuries and results. Now we're not getting so lucky. It happens.

 

So luck won us the league. Not hard work. Not determination. Not great management. Not great team chemistry. Not our medical and fitness staff. Luck.

 

And this season, we're just "not getting so lucky." Not awful defensive mistakes. Not poor performances. Not the fact that we don't have a system that works. Just bad luck.

[RumbleFox]

4 minutes ago, FireFox said:

 

So luck won us the league. Not hard work. Not determination. Not great management. Not great team chemistry. Not our medical and fitness staff. Luck.

 

And this season, we're just "not getting so lucky." Not awful defensive mistakes. Not poor performances. Not the fact that we don't have a system that works. Just bad luck.

You know it is possible for luck to be involved without being the sole factor?  Luck played its part alongside all those other things you mentioned.  Sometimes everything just clicks at the same time and something amazing happens like it did last season.  There is a difference between saying "we got lucky with injuries" and saying "luck with injuries was the only thing which made us win the league last year".

 

Anyway, I enjoyed last season and am enjoying this one too but in a slightly more normal manner.

 

Rumble

 

X

 

[Wymsey]

At the moment you just don't know what to expect with the team.

May well probably win the CL, stay up in the final game and lose in last minute of FA Cup final now. 

[NotTheMarketLeader]

1 hour ago, possiblygeorge said:

We have speed, why do we look so slow is what's concerning 

I agree. 

 

I do wonder if we have 'thrown the baby out with the bath water' in changing our style of play. 

 

Most will say - teams have sussed us out in terms of the counter attacking.

 

Yes, teams may know how we prefer to play - they did last season - but it didn't effect us getting positive results. With us being near the top of the league most of last season nobody could say they didn't know our style - they did, but it was a good excuse for other clubs and managers who couldnt cut the mustard, to use that to keep their natives from getting restless.

 

I think it's highly likely we've changed to too much too soon,  and we simply don't have the players for this 'Plan b'  style which has turned us into a very mediocre side, as things stand. 

 

 

[carled]

53 minutes ago, RumbleFox said:

You know it is possible for luck to be involved without being the sole factor?  Luck played its part alongside all those other things you mentioned.  Sometimes everything just clicks at the same time and something amazing happens like it did last season.  There is a difference between saying "we got lucky with injuries" and saying "luck with injuries was the only thing which made us win the league last year".

 

Anyway, I enjoyed last season and am enjoying this one too but in a slightly more normal manner.

 

Rumble

 

X

 

Hooray for Rumblefox. He gets what I'm saying without resorting to paraphrasing it into strawman arguments in order to "prove me wrong"!

[ZeGuy]

2 hours ago, possiblygeorge said:

We have speed, why do we look so slow is what's concerning 

Kanté.

[carled]

6 minutes ago, ZeGuy said:

Kanté.

And because there is too much of a gap between midfield and forwards so they are stopping and passing back inside/out wide to fullbacks/whatever as they don't know what to do with the ball and have no-one who is able/prepared to run with the ball at their feet, commit a few players and make space.  It's the most basic thing even in schoolboy football. If a midfielder from the opposition runs past your midfielder and you've already got a man to mark, if you leave that man to go to close down the fast-approaching midfielder, chances are that there is now a man free to some extent.  Quite simply the speed of counter attack we ran, allied to the space made by the forwards moving into sensible positions, led to the space needed for the through balls that caused so much trouble before.  No movement up front and no-one able to break free in the middle means all of our options are covered and we don't get the space to play in.

 

Back to ultra-fast breaks and, more crucially, the amazing work-rate we used to have up front that created the necessary space, and we would see an improvement in chances made/scored and even some entertainment as a by-product.

[HankMarvin]

It was no secrect that Kante was considered to do the job of 2 players, CR even joked about it during last season.

 

That said our poor recruitment has cost us dear, we were in the strongest ever position to buy quality replacement/s.

 

potentiallty by January we could be hovering near the drop, the same players that saw the club as an attractive proposition in the summer will simply not be interested.

 

Someone has dropped a major Bollock by only signing Mendy.