Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Rogstanley]

13 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Firstly there is almost zero connection between who is in Downing street and the day to day running of Public Health England.

Secondly, hell year they could do a lot worse.  Cirbyn has barely been able to hold a front bench together for most of his leadership, let alone a Cabinet in the full force of media and public scrutiny.

 

Something bad had happened, what shall we do?

 

A) address the problem

B) attack Corbyn 

 

 

Go with B, go with B, go with B, go with B

[Rogstanley]

44 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

My understanding is that this IT issue has been ongoing since 2009. Its a major failing again over many years, the current lot are incompetent but Labour are really no better. Remember Mid Staff Scandal ? 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/10181220/Thousands-may-have-died-because-of-Labour-NHS-failings-Tory-MPs-claim.html

 

If you honestly think Jeremy Corbyn could run a competent government you are in cloud cuckoo land. He is an idiot and never ran anything of not in his life, how the hell can he be expected to run a country? especially with the team of halfwits he has on his front bench.

 

Labour need a drastic change of Tony Blair proportions if they are ever to become electable. 

Go with B, go with B, go with B

[Guest MattP]

1 hour ago, Alf Bentley said:

Results seem very similar to 2017 general election.

Not good for Lab to be standing still at this stage. If Brexit negotiations and economy go well, Corbyn could be in real trouble in a year's time. But....

 

An awful lot could go wrong with Brexit negotiations & economy over coming months. If so, discontent could rise quickly and electoral politics get a lot more volatile, potentially benefiting Lab and/or LDs and/or Far Right (though the latter might take more than a year to develop).

 

Interesting analysis from John Curtice: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43976539

Con +5%, Lab +6%, LD+3%, UKIP massacred

 

"Not everywhere swung the same way. As in last year's general election, the Conservatives fared better in places that voted for Leave than in those that voted for Remain.

Britain's electoral geography has once again been reshaped by the debate about Brexit. The Conservative vote is up by 13 points where more than 60% backed Leave.

These are the areas where UKIP had performed best four years ago.However, the Conservatives have dropped by one point in areas where less than 45% voted Leave.Not least of the reasons for this divergence is that UKIP performed best in 2014 in Leave-voting areas.The collapsed UKIP vote in these areas seems to have swung disproportionately behind the Conservatives, much as it did in last year's general election.

As a result, the Conservatives' performance is weaker in London, which voted by three to two in favour of Remain.The Conservative vote is only up half a point in the capital, compared with eight points elsewhere.

Consequently the party has lost more than 50 seats in London, whereas it gained around 60 in other parts of the country".

 

The Tories have a lot riding on Brexit negotiations turning out well......

I think it's more important the Tories stick to current Brexit policy, still polling very strong in Leave areas.

 

Sir John Curtice also said “it seems to me that what the Conservative Party must be able to do in the coming weeks and months is to deliver on Brexit in a way that will satisfy the aspirations of Leave voters." - I really do hope the Soubry's start taking notice of this.

 

I do think we have certainly seen peak-Corbyn now though (and peak May for that matter) - if Labour still can't drag voters away from the Conservatives after the last few weeks I don't even think a disastrous Brexit will get them there, the Lib Dems however are certainly players again, some pretty big strides from them last night and they used to pick up seats when they were working well at local government. Who it would hurt more out of the main two parties is anyone's guess though, probably the Tories in the home counties and London but Labour everywhere else, they don't seem to be making any inroads back into the old strong leave voting areas across the West Country still.

 

The Conservatives need to take some serious lessons from Plymouth as well, the local MP Mercer was saying defence cuts came up on every doorstep, no way should they be losing anything to the current Labour party on defence, even if the local party isn't a Corbynite one. Brexit is one thing but Tory voters have always wanted the nation to have strong defences, they shouldn't forget the bread and butter policies.

Edited 4 May 2018 by MattP

[Guest MattP]

4 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

Fair enough, I was just looking at the numbers on the BBC which show a +40 odd for labour and a -2 for conservative. 

 

Will be interesting to see the turnout, I suspect very low and that's why these results don't really mean anything. It's surely only the hardcore followers of politics who vote in these things, the rest of us actually have to work for a living

If that is the case it's even worse for Labour, we were told this mass membership and grassroots movement meant you get the vote out among low turnouts, Labour were bussing in thousands this week to areas they expected to take from the Tories.

 

Maybe the mob are now putting people off on the doorstep? Corbyn and Momentum didn't show up in Plymouth and that was the only council they took (and the 4 seats they grabbed were all ex-UKIP)

[Guest Foxin_mad]

1 minute ago, Rogstanley said:

Something bad had happened, what shall we do?

 

A) address the problem

B) attack Corbyn 

 

 

Go with B, go with B, go with B, go with B

 

Corbyn brings it on himself with his past and his own incompetence. If he was a competent decent man I think people would be more willing to work with him.

 

 Your default option is:

 

A) Look at reality from a sound perspective

B) Call (May) all Tories evil nasty racists over any incident that occurs

 

Go with B, go with B

[Guest Kopfkino]

Would be messy. Ofc very difficult to predict such a thing from an unrep local election

 

 

Edited 4 May 2018 by Kopfkino

[Guest Foxin_mad]

1 minute ago, MattP said:

If that is the case it's even worse for Labour, we were told this mass membership and grassroots movement meant you get the vote out among low turnouts, Labour were bussing in thousands this week to areas they expected to take from the Tories.

 

Maybe the mob are now putting people off on the doorstep? Corbyn and Momentum didn't show up in Plymouth and that was the only council they took (and the 4 seats they grabbed were all ex-UKIP)

The fact the grabbed ex-UKIP seats is bizarre given their odd 'a' customs cake, but not the same cake the Tory scum want; which apparently is a an impossible cake to get. The Labour cake is the finest cake made with a wealth of expensive ingredients the EU will definitely want that cake. 

[Guest MattP]

[Jimothy]

2 minutes ago, Foxin_mad said:

 

Corbyn brings it on himself with his past and his own incompetence. If he was a competent decent man I think people would be more willing to work with him.

 

 Your default option is:

 

A) Look at reality from a sound perspective

B) Call (May) all Tories evil nasty racists over any incident that occurs

 

Go with B, go with B

Fine, Corbyn is shite. He isn't leading a great opposition party and he's let a weak Tory government get away with tons of crap.

 

But that's the point, they are getting away with tons of crap, and rather than talk about the incompetence of the people actually running the ****ing show you seem more interested in talking about the incompetence of the people wanting to.

 

I know we need a strong opposition to keep a government in check, but really, right now, with no election on the very near horizon, Corbyn and Co's incompetence is the least of our worries and you should be more concerned with the shower of shit actually running the country.

[Alf Bentley]

9 minutes ago, MattP said:

I do think we have certainly seen peak-Corbyn now though (and peak May for that matter) - if Labour still can't drag voters away from the Conservatives after the last few weeks I don't even think a disastrous Brexit will get them there.

 

If Brexit/economy progress without major traumas, you could be right. Lab isn't seizing the agenda and winning people over, despite Tory disasters. Can't rely on making progress during the election campaign like 2017.

 

But I do think that a disastrous Brexit/economy could still put Corbyn in No. 10, despite his failings. Issues like Windrush or cabinet chaos don't shift many votes, but a lot more would shift if Brexit yields a chaotic no deal and economic crash - or something perceived as a sell-out by fervent Brexiteers. Depending on circumstances, that might benefit the LDs or a new Far Right force (given time - there would certainly be an opening for them) or it might benefit Labour. Most people care a lot more about their personal/family circumstances and prospects, and a sizeable minority on both sides care greatly about Brexit - that could still shift a lot of votes over coming months, never mind 1-2 years.  

[Alf Bentley]

21 minutes ago, Kopfkino said:

Would be messy

 

 

 

Lab/LD/SNP/Plaid/SDLP/Green dream coalition. 

[Guest MattP]

3 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

Lab/LD/SNP/Plaid/SDLP/Green dream coalition. 

 

[Guest MattP]

Turnout was up towards 70% in some areas of Barnet, that's incredible for local elections.

 

Hopefully that will kick on Corbyn to finally get to grips with the antisemitism in the party.

[Strokes]

11 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Lab/LD/SNP/Plaid/SDLP/Green dream coalition. 

You might be able to get sinn fein too, Corbyn’s mates. 

Edited 4 May 2018 by Strokes

[Alf Bentley]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

 

 

Yep, that's what we need: a Rainbow coalition.

Replace a bungler as PM with Bungle. 

Zippy bears an alarming resemblance to Gove, though.

[Guest MattP]

Ken Livingstone is on Sky, who is making these decisions? If ever there was a day for him to just go away this is it.

 

Naturally he's claiming it was a smear that he said Hitler was a Zionist.

[Alf Bentley]

7 minutes ago, Strokes said:

You might be able to get sinn fein too, Corbyn’s mates. 

 

 

Ssshh! Don't wake Webbo up on his hols. Don't want him worrying about the IRA on his sunbed.

[Guest MattP]

He won't go quietly if they try to get rid of him.

 

https://twitter.com/Jamin2g/status/992341000864530432

[Guest Foxin_mad]

45 minutes ago, Facecloth said:

Fine, Corbyn is shite. He isn't leading a great opposition party and he's let a weak Tory government get away with tons of crap.

 

But that's the point, they are getting away with tons of crap, and rather than talk about the incompetence of the people actually running the ****ing show you seem more interested in talking about the incompetence of the people wanting to.

 

I know we need a strong opposition to keep a government in check, but really, right now, with no election on the very near horizon, Corbyn and Co's incompetence is the least of our worries and you should be more concerned with the shower of shit actually running the country.

They are shit. I have said this time and time again.

 

What I am saying like a broken record as it could be a lot worse, a whole lot worst with a Corbyn led Labour government, no jobs for starters. 

 

The problem is the Tories are not being made to be any better by Labour being so incompetent. The incompetence of the people wanting to run the show are very important if they are the alternative.

 

If Corbyn and Co were more competent they would be able to hold the government to account, May would be under pressure, the government could be under pressure. They aren't because they are a massive pile of steaming incompetent unfathomable horse shit.

 

We need change in the Labour party, they need a new decent leader. They need to scrap this momentum bollocks only a few far left extremists can get fully behind it. If Labour had a decent leader and watered down a few of their manifesto pledges they could get a landslide without a doubt.

[Guest MattP]

Cable confirms the Lib Dems wouldn't go into any sort of coalition with Labour or the Conservatives. 

[Guest Foxin_mad]

6 minutes ago, MattP said:

Cable confirms the Lib Dems wouldn't go into any sort of coalition with Labour or the Conservatives. 

They have learnt their lesson I think.

 

Them being in coalition destroyed them. You honestly could not risk any sort association with the 2 incompetents currently leading the show. 

 

I actually thought the Lib Dems did a reasonable job in coalition at a difficult time. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Jon the Hat said:

The really depressing thing about an unelectable opposition is that it really doesn't hold the government to account.  They are not really doing a particularly good job, and i few losses here would have focused the mind.

My thoughts on the need for a change of leadership are well known but if labour are going to try to win with the current leader and shadow chancellor them imo they need to get them on tv as much as possible, being as reasonable as possible.

 

I think the GE showed that when confronted by the reality of what Corbyn is the fears melted away for many people. I suspect the same would be true of McDonnell.

 

They need to normalise themselves in people's consciences rather than only being seen occasionally with the tory smear campaign in full effect the rest of the time.

 

And get rid of diane abbot. 

Edited 4 May 2018 by Guest

[Guest Foxin_mad]

2 minutes ago, toddybad said:

My thoughts on the need for a change of leadership are well known but if labour are going to try to win with the current leader and shadow chancellor them imo they need to get them on tv as much as possible, being as reasonable as possible.

 

I think the GE showed that when confronted by the reality of what Corbyn is the fears melted away for many people. I suspect the same would be true of McDonnell.

 

They need to normalise themselves in people's consciences rather than only being seen occasionally with the tory smear campaign in full effect the rest of the time.

 

And get rid of diane abbot. 

 

I don't think that is the case really.

 

From what I have seen of McDonnell he had mellowed a bit recently, although he did get a bit shouty and patronising on TV last night I see with the Tory sent to wind him up.

 

Corbyn continually makes a tit of himself at PMQ and is pretty insufferable on TV interviews, often showing a clearly angry shouty side when someone says something he doesn't like or begins to prove his arguments crap. 

 

All this talk of smears is absolute nonsense, the Daily Mail et all are absolutely ripping the government to shreds over Windrush and this recent NHS scandal. Labour are doing themselves no favours by refusing to sort their issues, most of which surround the incompetent leader and frontbench. 

 

The reason Labour were so successful at GE was a Social Media campaign which seems to have won over the young in particular. I think people are now finally realising the absolute danger of these people running the country. If you have a house, a car and a job that you like the security of you would be very ill advised to vote Labour. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

I think it's more important the Tories stick to current Brexit policy, still polling very strong in Leave areas.

 

Sir John Curtice also said “it seems to me that what the Conservative Party must be able to do in the coming weeks and months is to deliver on Brexit in a way that will satisfy the aspirations of Leave voters." - I really do hope the Soubry's start taking notice of this.

 

I do think we have certainly seen peak-Corbyn now though (and peak May for that matter) - if Labour still can't drag voters away from the Conservatives after the last few weeks I don't even think a disastrous Brexit will get them there, the Lib Dems however are certainly players again, some pretty big strides from them last night and they used to pick up seats when they were working well at local government. Who it would hurt more out of the main two parties is anyone's guess though, probably the Tories in the home counties and London but Labour everywhere else, they don't seem to be making any inroads back into the old strong leave voting areas across the West Country still.

 

The Conservatives need to take some serious lessons from Plymouth as well, the local MP Mercer was saying defence cuts came up on every doorstep, no way should they be losing anything to the current Labour party on defence, even if the local party isn't a Corbynite one. Brexit is one thing but Tory voters have always wanted the nation to have strong defences, they shouldn't forget the bread and butter policies.

 

If we assume the next GE is after Brexit, and likely after the implementation period (though if they get a decent deal the Tories might use that period as a chance to change leader and bring forward a GE as they'll be in a strong position if the economy holds which imo would be good tactics on their part).....once Brexit is out of the way and stops being an issue (which perhaps assumes no calamities do occur as a result) then it'll be interesting to see how votes shake out. 

 

Last nights results looked to still be heaviliy impacted by Brexit imo. In the leave north the Tories took huge numbers of UKIP votes. Not so many in the remain south (I only watched a bit of the results so this may have changed). What happens after it's all over?

Edited 4 May 2018 by Guest

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Foxin_mad said:

I don't think that is the case really.

 

From what I have seen of McDonnell he had mellowed a bit recently, although he did get a bit shouty and patronising on TV last night I see with the Tory sent to wind him up.

 

Corbyn continually makes a tit of himself at PMQ and is pretty insufferable on TV interviews, often showing a clearly angry shouty side when someone says something he doesn't like or begins to prove his arguments crap. 

 

All this talk of smears is absolute nonsense, the Daily Mail et all are absolutely ripping the government to shreds over Windrush and this recent NHS scandal. Labour are doing themselves no favours by refusing to sort their issues, most of which surround the incompetent leader and frontbench. 

 

The reason Labour were so successful at GE was a Social Media campaign which seems to have won over the young in particular. I think people are now finally realising the absolute danger of these people running the country. If you have a house, a car and a job that you like the security of you would be very ill advised to vote Labour. 

The trouble with your theory is that fewer and fewer young people have those things. And by young I mean under 40.