Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Izzy Muzzett said:

Is it possible you may be addicted to politics Toddy? 

Nah

[Guest]

At what point do you ask if, even if you hate Cornyn and co, should they REALLY do worse than the current bunch?

 

 

[Guest MattP]

Expectation management on show already. Tories saying optimistic outside London, Labour saying low turnout could affect them.

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, toddybad said:

At what point do you ask if, even if you hate Cornyn and co, should they REALLY do worse than the current bunch?

 

 

Yeah, they could thwart brexit for a start.

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, MattP said:

Expectation management on show already. Tories saying optimistic outside London, Labour saying low turnout could affect them.

Tbf council elections are weird. Labour relies on the youth vote but no young people vote in council elections.

[Strokes]

11 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Tbf council elections are weird. Labour relies on the youth vote but no young people vote in council elections.

I blame their parents. Tory bastards.

[Guest MattP]

Tories and Liberals winning seats off Labour in Sunderland early doors....

 

Barnet and Wandsworth said to be close. 

 

[Guest MattP]

Tories think they might lose Trafford, that would be a blow.

[Guest MattP]

Labour lose control of Nuneaton - that shows they are certainly in no position to win an election.

 

McDonnell looks happy

[Guest Kopfkino]

Actually finding John McDonnell quite funny tonight, in a good way. The Conservative woman is only there to wind him up and his reaction so funny. 

[Rogstanley]

7 hours ago, Strokes said:

Yeah, they could thwart brexit for a start.

You always answer serious questions with a joke, I get that, it’s a way of avoiding difficult questions and avoiding making tough decisions.

 

But when it’s about yet more people being killed by Tory incompetence, surely that’s beyond the point that the jokes should stop?

[Rogstanley]

Must admit to not having much of an idea of (or interest in) what these election results really mean, but in the numbers alone it looks like Labour have had another good night, and the Tories have struggled again despite easy pickings being available from the collapse of UKIP.

 

The rise of the Lib Dems suggesting that more are seeking the centre ground (or more people want to exit from brexit if we’re to believe the theory that every election is merely a re-run of the EU referendum as purported by some on here).

[Izzy]

28 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

Must admit to not having much of an idea of (or interest in) what these election results really mean, but in the numbers alone it looks like Labour have had another good night, and the Tories have struggled again despite easy pickings being available from the collapse of UKIP.

 

But, in the words of Sir John Curtice, Jeremy Corbyn's party has come out of this more or less "empty-handed", and they can't show the kind of progress they would be shouting about if they were truly convinced they were on a rapid march to Number 10.

[Strokes]

1 hour ago, Rogstanley said:

You always answer serious questions with a joke, I get that, it’s a way of avoiding difficult questions and avoiding making tough decisions.

 

But when it’s about yet more people being killed by Tory incompetence, surely that’s beyond the point that the jokes should stop?

I wasn’t joking.

[Strokes]

58 minutes ago, Rogstanley said:

Must admit to not having much of an idea of (or interest in) what these election results really mean, but in the numbers alone it looks like Labour have had another good night, and the Tories have struggled again despite easy pickings being available from the collapse of UKIP.

 

The rise of the Lib Dems suggesting that more are seeking the centre ground (or more people want to exit from brexit if we’re to believe the theory that every election is merely a re-run of the EU referendum as purported by some on here).

[Guest MattP]

2 hours ago, Rogstanley said:

Must admit to not having much of an idea of (or interest in) what these election results really mean, but in the numbers alone it looks like Labour have had another good night, and the Tories have struggled again despite easy pickings being available from the collapse of UKIP.

Least you opened your mouth and removed all doubt. Labour should have taken far more than one council last night, they were hoping for a minimum of two just in London. The Tories were only looking at holding Kensington and Bexley a month ago. 

 

Sitting governments aren't supposed to gain three councils, voters have gone for the status quo, they aren't dying to vote Tory but they aren't Labour as a viable government either.

 

Barnet was a right shocker, bookies had Labour at 1/6 yesterday afternoom, the antisemitism hurting them there surely. 

Edited 4 May 2018 by MattP

[Guest MattP]

Oh and this

 

He's a goner next time.

[RobHawk]

UKIP dead in the water. Interesting resurgence of lib dems given they seem to be nowhere at present. 

 

Pretty much status quo otherwise. Worst government in decades but a opposition that people just can't get behind. Surely the reason for the lib dem increase as many look for an alternative. Honestly can't see where we are going next. Something needs to happen to shift opinion one way or another. Even the brexit fallout is unlikely to make much impact simply because of the tribal nature of the referendum result. 

 

All in all, I've never known politics to be so depressing, confusing and utterly hopeless.

[Alf Bentley]

Results seem very similar to 2017 general election.

Not good for Lab to be standing still at this stage. If Brexit negotiations and economy go well, Corbyn could be in real trouble in a year's time. But....

 

An awful lot could go wrong with Brexit negotiations & economy over coming months. If so, discontent could rise quickly and electoral politics get a lot more volatile, potentially benefiting Lab and/or LDs and/or Far Right (though the latter might take more than a year to develop).

 

Interesting analysis from John Curtice: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43976539

Con +5%, Lab +6%, LD+3%, UKIP massacred

 

"Not everywhere swung the same way. As in last year's general election, the Conservatives fared better in places that voted for Leave than in those that voted for Remain.

Britain's electoral geography has once again been reshaped by the debate about Brexit. The Conservative vote is up by 13 points where more than 60% backed Leave.

These are the areas where UKIP had performed best four years ago.However, the Conservatives have dropped by one point in areas where less than 45% voted Leave.Not least of the reasons for this divergence is that UKIP performed best in 2014 in Leave-voting areas.The collapsed UKIP vote in these areas seems to have swung disproportionately behind the Conservatives, much as it did in last year's general election.

As a result, the Conservatives' performance is weaker in London, which voted by three to two in favour of Remain.The Conservative vote is only up half a point in the capital, compared with eight points elsewhere.

Consequently the party has lost more than 50 seats in London, whereas it gained around 60 in other parts of the country".

 

The Tories have a lot riding on Brexit negotiations turning out well......

[Milo]

8 years in opposition, Labour should be doing so much better

[Guest Foxin_mad]

10 hours ago, toddybad said:

At what point do you ask if, even if you hate Cornyn and co, should they REALLY do worse than the current bunch?

 

 

My understanding is that this IT issue has been ongoing since 2009. Its a major failing again over many years, the current lot are incompetent but Labour are really no better. Remember Mid Staff Scandal ? 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/10181220/Thousands-may-have-died-because-of-Labour-NHS-failings-Tory-MPs-claim.html

 

If you honestly think Jeremy Corbyn could run a competent government you are in cloud cuckoo land. He is an idiot and never ran anything of not in his life, how the hell can he be expected to run a country? especially with the team of halfwits he has on his front bench.

 

Labour need a drastic change of Tony Blair proportions if they are ever to become electable. 

[Jon the Hat]

The really depressing thing about an unelectable opposition is that it really doesn't hold the government to account.  They are not really doing a particularly good job, and i few losses here would have focused the mind.

[Jon the Hat]

11 hours ago, toddybad said:

At what point do you ask if, even if you hate Cornyn and co, should they REALLY do worse than the current bunch?

 

Firstly there is almost zero connection between who is in Downing street and the day to day running of Public Health England.

Secondly, hell year they could do a lot worse.  Cirbyn has barely been able to hold a front bench together for most of his leadership, let alone a Cabinet in the full force of media and public scrutiny.

Edited 4 May 2018 by Jon the Hat

[Rogstanley]

1 hour ago, MattP said:

Least you opened your mouth and removed all doubt. Labour should have taken far more than one council last night, they were hoping for a minimum of two just in London. The Tories were only looking at holding Kensington and Bexley a month ago. 

 

Sitting governments aren't supposed to gain three councils, voters have gone for the status quo, they aren't dying to vote Tory but they aren't Labour as a viable government either.

 

Barnet was a right shocker, bookies had Labour at 1/6 yesterday afternoom, the antisemitism hurting them there surely. 

 

Fair enough, I was just looking at the numbers on the BBC which show a +40 odd for labour and a -2 for conservative. 

 

Will be interesting to see the turnout, I suspect very low and that's why these results don't really mean anything. It's surely only the hardcore followers of politics who vote in these things, the rest of us actually have to work for a living

[purpleronnie]

21 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

The really depressing thing about an unelectable opposition is that it really doesn't hold the government to account.  They are not really doing a particularly good job, and i few losses here would have focused the mind.

Agreed it really is a sad state, it seems the tories can continually screw things up with no consequences.  Sad times for labour voters.  That's whay I wasn't at all surprised labour didn't do as well as they hoped.

Edited 4 May 2018 by purpleronnie