It all started at Bournemouth...

[kushiro]

...on the last Saturday in August. No-one realised on that warm afternoon, as the City players celebrated the late goal in front of the away end, that it was the start of a run that would continue until snow was on the ground.

 

As the weeks passed, it took a while for people to realise what was happening, but as September turned to October, City fans started asking the question -  how long can it continue? 

 

It stretched to six, then seven games, and then, on the last weekend in October as the clocks went back, the run extended to eight as City celebrated a 3-2 win at West Brom, and now it wasn't just City fans, but people across the country who were talking about it.  

 

Some people were looking at the fixtures ahead and thinking 'It's got to end soon - it's OK against the likes of Palace, Stoke and Watford, but Man U are on the horizon'. But with autumn turning to winter and the whole footballl world watching, not even Man U could stop this incredible run continuing.

 

The records were tumbling - the club record, the Premier League record - people were checking the history books and looking for precedents in European and world football.

 

But that's enough for now, son. I'll tell you the rest tomorrow night. It's time to sleep.

 

"But dad!! What happened next?!  Tell me!  How long did Vardy's run continue?  Did Leicester win the league?"

 

"Vardy??  Leicester??  What are you talking about, laddie?. I'm talking about Man City in 2017. This is a true story - not a bloomin' fairy tale!!"

 

 

 

 

[KingsX]

[Guest]

Meanwhile in the present the forum is fearing a 6 or 7 goal battering.

[kushiro]

That little bedtime story posted above, highlighting the weird parallels between Man City's sequence of wins and Vardy's 11 match scoring sequence, was my obtuse way of introducing a new topic. There's a lot I'd like to say about it so I'll do it in several parts:

 

Part 1: The End of History?

 

After our title win, it was tempting to ask: 'Is there anything interesting left to happen in Premier League football, or will we just revert to year after year of tedious passing the trophy between the super rich mega clubs? Was the 5000-1 story the last really big PL event?

 

Last season was a pretty impressive story of Antonio Conte helping Chelsea rediscover their mojo, but isn't likely to stay long in the memory of the average football fan. So what could the next historical milestone be? Here are some of the possibilities:

 

1) A Liverpool or Spurs title win would be a pretty huge story, but then they are both 'big six' clubs, and the impact of a title win would be exaggerated because it's been so long since either club won the title. 

 

2) A team could win a record-breaking four or five titles on the bounce, but, depending on which team it was, that might only increase the sense of tedium. 

 

3) We could see an unprecedented individual scoring feat - like 40 goals in a season (unprecedented in recent times, at least). Are you up to it, Harry? 

 

4) We might see a freakish event in a single game - like the first 10-0 scoreline, or the first PL player to score six in one match.

 

5) We might see a team like Burnley have an amazing season and qualify for the Champions League.

 

But none of these things would have anything like the impact that we had.

 

So - was 2015/16 the end of history? Well, of course it's pretty clear now that the answer is 'no'. All the above was just a preamble to saying that there IS another chapter, and it's being written before our eyes. Pep has come along with a revolutionary style of play and an 18 games-and-counting winning streak, and it's fantastic to watch. Man City fans must be experiencing something approaching the same mixture of joy and disbelief that we had two years ago. And just like us two years ago, as the New Year approaches, they must be wondering where on earth the journey might end.

 

[kushiro]

Part 2:   How Far Can They Go?

 

They broke the all time English record when they got to 15, and if Man City get to 20 wins it'll be the longest winning streak in the 'big five' European leagues. That's a pretty impressive stat, but what about the rest of Europe? It was similar with the Vardy scoring run. It was great that Vardy got the Premier League record, but what about the rest of history? Jimmy Dunne of Sheffield United still holds the all time English top flight record from the 1930s (and I still feel a twinge of regret that Vardy missed those chances at Swansea that would have taken him level with Dunne). 

 

So, in Man City's case, what about the rest of Europe?  The longest all time winning streaks in ANY European league are as follows:

 

 

1) Benfica                 29 wins    1972-73.          Weirdly enough, in the middle of that run, they lost a European Cup tie at Derby.

 

2) Dinamo  Zagreb   28 wins    2006/07           Eduardo, Luka Modric and Vedran Corlulka, all soon after playing in North London, were the stars.

 

3)  Celtic                   25 wins    2003/04           Martin O'Neill was boss at the time.

 

4) Dinamo Tirana     25 wins    1951/52           Not much I can tell you about that, I'm afraid!

  

Leicester's game at Man City in February will be their 27th league game of the season, so if they keep the run going, it would be their 25th straight victory. But as you can see from the list above, that would still only equal the all time British record. Though if it does come to that, we might be able to cheer ourselves up after the defeat by making mischievous comparisons between Guardiola and Martin O'Neill.

 

By the way, if Man City reach the EFL Cup Final, or reach the 6th round of the FA Cup, their game v Man U in April would, due to the rearrangement of League games, be the match where they could record their 30th straight victory and beat the all time European record. If they progress that far in both cup competitions, the Man U game would be the 29th, where they could equal the record.

 

(No doubt after projecing so far into the future they'll go and blow it at Palace on Sunday).

 

[kushiro]

Part 3:   The Extreme Unlikeliness of Long Sequences

 

It's easy to frame Man City's winning run as an unstoppable force removing all objects in its path, but there have been many moments when the run could easily have come to an end. They've had so many late winning goals, and last minute close shaves where they might so easily have conceded an equaliser (Ederson's double save at Man U, Dwight Gayle on Wednesday).  What might come to be seen as the most crucial moment, however, was at the King Power on November 18th when referee Graham Scott decided that Vincent Kompany's trip on Jamie Vardy in the third minute was worthy of just a yellow card.

 

All this suggests that any long sequence requires quite a large helping of good luck, and depends on chance factors more than is usually acknowledged. 

 

 

Looking back at Vardy's 11 game scoring run you can't help but draw the same conclusion. There were so many moments when things might have been different:

 

If Mahrez had not been substituted at Bournemouth, he and not Vardy would have taken the penalty (game 1 of the 11).

 

If Mahrez had not been dropped for the game at Norwich, he and not Vardy would have taken the penalty (game 5).

 

If in the Watford game (game 9), Mahrez, after grabbing the ball for the penalty, had ignored Drinkwater's intervention and not handed the ball to Vardy....

 

If Vardy had not passed a late fitness test before the game at St. James' Park (game 10)...

 

If the lineman had flagged Vardy offside (it was touch and go) in the same game...

 

 

There's a fantastic article about this topic by Stephen Jay Gould:

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/1988/08/18/the-streak-of-streaks/

[KingsX]

For connoisseurs of winning streaks .. my alma mater.

 

 

 

[UPinCarolina]

I enjoy this topic, but I hate the premise of Francis Fukuyama’s article - mainly because he was so incredibly wrong.

[UPinCarolina]

6 minutes ago, KingsX said:

For connoisseurs of winning streaks .. my alma mater.

 

 

 

Holy shit you went to Kenyon too!?!

 

Class of 2012 right here. We have much to discuss. Was a Beta and played football. 

Edited 30 December 2017 by UPinCarolina

[kushiro]

Part 4:  The Record or the Trophy?

 

We got both, of course. We had Vardy's record breaking run and we picked up the pot in May. Man City have 18 straight wins - and surely they cannot blow a 15 point lead. So - I wonder what Guardiola would define as a successful season? Is he thinking of winning all four trophies? Does he care much for records? After his near misses with Bayern, the Champions League is surely the priority. That being so, he'll probably be resting a few key players for league games come the spring, and that might cost a few points and might stop them reaching 100. Hope they can at least beat Chelsea's Mourinho-era record of 95.

 

Well, here ends my fumbling attempts to draw together two strands of Premier League history. Speaking as one of the luckiest fans in the history of the game (we all feel that way after 2015/16, don't we?) I feel totally magnanimous about 'passing the baton' to another set of fans. For me, that chant last weekend wasn't just about having a pop at Man U - it was also tipping a hat to what their neighbours have achieved. 

 

'Just like Leicester, your city is blue'.

[KingsX]

9 hours ago, UPinCarolina said:

Holy shit you went to Kenyon too!?!

 

Class of 2012 right here. We have much to discuss. Was a Beta and played football. 

Well that explains the general brilliance of your posts.   Class of 1980 and a Phi Kap.  Two time intramural champ in 6-man touch* ...

 

* not that that has anything to do with "real football" as you played, much less the sport we obsess about here.

 

Sorry Kushiro.  You post an interesting thread, and UP and I hijack it.  I don't feel as generous as you about passing the torch.  For every lifelong Man City fan there must be a few even newer than myself.  (And unlike them, in 3 years I've already gone through 2 relegation scares.)

 

I still hold to the hope that the planets will again line up and history repeat itself.  Although Man City have the master plan as well as the obscene cash, which will make it even tougher.

 

 

[UPinCarolina]

@kushiro - I’ve been picking through this thread over my morning coffee and I’ve got to say that I’m impressed. Very well reasoned and thought out. Thanks for taking the time to put this together!

 

[Vestan Pance]

On 29/12/2017 at 23:51, kushiro said:

Part 3:   The Extreme Unlikeliness of Long Sequences

 

It's easy to frame Man City's winning run as an unstoppable force removing all objects in its path, but there have been many moments when the run could easily have come to an end. They've had so many late winning goals, and last minute close shaves where they might so easily have conceded an equaliser (Ederson's double save at Man U, Dwight Gayle on Wednesday).  What might come to be seen as the most crucial moment, however, was at the King Power on November 18th when referee Graham Scott decided that Vincent Kompany's trip on Jamie Vardy in the third minute was worthy of just a yellow card.

 

All this suggests that any long sequence requires quite a large helping of good luck, and depends on chance factors more than is usually acknowledged. 

 

 

Looking back at Vardy's 11 game scoring run you can't help but draw the same conclusion. There were so many moments when things might have been different:

 

If Mahrez had not been substituted at Bournemouth, he and not Vardy would have taken the penalty (game 1 of the 11).

 

If Mahrez had not been dropped for the game at Norwich, he and not Vardy would have taken the penalty (game 5).

 

If in the Watford game (game 9), Mahrez, after grabbing the ball for the penalty, had ignored Drinkwater's intervention and not handed the ball to Vardy....

 

If Vardy had not passed a late fitness test before the game at St. James' Park (game 10)...

 

If the lineman had flagged Vardy offside (it was touch and go) in the same game...

 

 

There's a fantastic article about this topic by Stephen Jay Gould:

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/1988/08/18/the-streak-of-streaks/

If you include the things that nearly didn't happen then you have to include the things that nearly did happen, for example all the near misses during that period. 

[kushiro]

1 hour ago, Vestan Pance said:

If you include the things that nearly didn't happen then you have to include the things that nearly did happen, for example all the near misses during that period. 

That's a really useful comment, actuallly, because although I think you're missing the point, trying to put into words exactly why will force me to articulate more clearly what the point was in the first place,

 

The five examples I gave of where the run could so easily have ended were in games 1, 5, 9, and 10 (two different examples from that game). Just a reminder of those examples:

 

If Mahrez had not been substituted at Bournemouth, he and not Vardy would have taken the penalty.

If Mahrez had not been dropped for the game at Norwich, he and not Vardy would have taken the penalty.

If in the Watford game, Mahrez, after grabbing the ball for the penalty, had ignored Drinkwater's intervention and not handed the ball to Vardy....

If Vardy had not passed a late fitness test before the game at St. James' Park...

If the lineman had flagged Vardy offside (it was touch and go) in the same game..

 

Now as you rightly say, there were a lot of chances he missed in those 11 games. But, they don't neatly cancel out the examples above. Let's list the five clearest missed chances in that sequence (and I can do this pretty much from memory, having watched the full games numerous times) :

 

They are from games 5 (two examples), 6 (two examples) and 8. Here they are in detail:

 

He had two great chances in the second half at Norwich - dragging both of them wide.

He had two great chances at Southampton the following week - early on, and with five minutes remaining after that beautiful sweeping move.

He had an early chance at West Brom that hit the post.

 

You might well quibble with my choice of five here and, for example, add the chance in the second half at Newcastle. But that's not so important. The key point is that the more you add variation, the less likely the pieces fall in the same places. Take away five and add five and you still have the same total, but the sequence collapses. There is nothing to replace the goals that went missing from games 1 and 9 (in fact, in neither of those games did he have anything like a clear chance apart from the penalties). 

 

Long sequences are freakish because random events, bad luck, or whatever, can so easily throw a spanner in the works. It doesn't detract from Vardy's run (or Man City's - where exactly the same arguments apply) to point this out. If anything, the freakishness makes them even more worthy of celebration when they do happen. 

 

Edited 31 December 2017 by kushiro

[kushiro]

So - time to put this thread to bed as City's run ends. To round it off,  this from the the always-wonderful Martin Samuel:

 

 

Gary Neville is wrong, Manchester City CAN be great after one season

 

There are 12 episodes of Fawlty Towers and 295 episodes of Last of the Summer Wine. Doesn’t make it funnier, though, the longevity. Nobody quotes Foggy and Compo the way they do Basil and Sybil. It is 42 years since a severely concussed Torquay hotelier told his staff not to mention the war and the phrase remains part of the nation’s vocabulary. Commercials are still made parodying scenes from a show almost half a century old without a syllable of explanation and everyone gets the joke.

 

Last of the Summer Wine did it longer and more often but it wasn’t as good. Neither was M*A*S*H, neither was Friends. Only one measure counts in the world of art or culture: the work. It does not matter that Vincent van Gogh couldn’t sell a painting in his lifetime or that Jackson Pollock’s creative peak lasts little more than three years. There is no rulebook governing greatness. Robert Johnson’s entire recorded output amounts to 29 songs, including alternate takes, most of which were recorded in three days in Room 414 of the Gunter Hotel in San Antonio. No matter. Nobody had ever played the guitar like it and, once Johnson was done, the instrument never sounded the same again. 

 

It is possible to capture and achieve lasting greatness in a fleeting moment, just as it is possible for Manchester City to be a great team in only one season.

Gary Neville is wrong. Those who wish to define sport as boxes to be ticked — win title, retain title — have missed the point. Yes, a period of dominance is one signifier, but not the only one.

 

If Manchester City continue to play as they have this season, if they win the league by March as they are on course to do, if they break the 100-point barrier, if they usurp the points per game aggregate of even Preston’s Invincibles from the Victorian age, are we to pretend this is not yet a great team, because of the potential for some random set of circumstances as yet unknown? That is ridiculous.

 

If The Beatles had made one record and it was The White Album they would still be a great band; if the Velvet Underground had made one record and it was The Velvet Underground and Nico, they would still have changed music. And if DJ Pierre had done nothing other than modulate the frequency and resonance controls in the bass patterns of a Roland TB-303, he would still have invented acid house.

 

And that’s what City are doing; they’re inventing acid house. There was dance music before, but it never sounded like that. And there have been great football teams before Pep Guardiola’s City — but few of us, not even those who witnessed Liverpool’s European Cup winners, Manchester United’s treble winners or Arsenal’s Invincibles, can remember too many quite like this. 

 

Gary Neville is wrong, Manchester City can be great after just one outstanding season. They’ve won nothing yet, obviously. They dropped points on Sunday for the first time since August and may now be without important players at a crucial time in the season. They still have to see this through despite the obstacles, make it the game-changing procession we anticipate. Nobody can be great 21 matches into a 38-game season. Yet the indicators are there. The totals and aggregates it was considered possible to hit are being altered. And then what? They have to do it all again or it’s meaningless? Nonsense.

 

The greatest title win in the history of English football was Leicester City’s in 2015-16. It was a triumph we had given up hope of seeing, a club from beyond the established elite winning a league in which money supposedly rules, and by 10 points. It was truly amazing. And just because they didn’t retain it the following season does not make it less so. Leicester’s win is not inferior to United’s three between 1999 and 2001 or 2007 and 2009. Given their circumstances, how were they to deprive the elite of their entitlement a second time? Leicester lost their best player to a major rival; bigger, richer clubs invested hugely in the summer; they had to compete in the Champions League for the first time. Naturally, the superhuman effort of getting a small club over the line against all odds could not be maintained. Does that diminish what went before? No.

 

It is little surprise that much of the desire to place caveats around Manchester City’s form this season comes from those with an affinity to Manchester United.

It’s all they have right now: the charge that City are yet to keep hold of the Premier League title for more than one year. For the same reason, Liverpool followers wish greatness to be measured in European titles; it’s all that keeps their club from being eclipsed by Manchester United, having failed to win the biggest domestic prize in the modern era.

 

Yet these rivalries and jealousies should not distract from the bigger picture. Just as it is possible to be a great European team without retaining the Champions League — Guardiola’s Barcelona never did so — it is possible a season like the one City are having could be acclaimed without the necessity of doing it all again.

A lot could happen by 2019 — injuries, fatigue, investment elsewhere. There is a reason no team have kept the Premier League title since Manchester United in 2008-09. It is a tough, exhausting competition. United’s last two title victories have been by the substantial margins of nine and 11 points and neither prize was retained.

 

So, we take greatness where we find it. If Manchester City rewrite the record books, does it make them a great team? Of course it does. As Basil would say: it’s the bleeding obvious. 

[Foxxed]

This reminds me that I should start paying attention to what Pep's done tactics wise instead of just moaning Man City have destroyed the thrill of the chase half way through the season. But broken records or not I can't help but look at the points difference between first and second and yawn. I mean, it was fascinating and wonderful to look at how we were playing in 15/16 but without Spurs breathing down our necks it wouldn't have been half as thrilling.

[shen]

1 minute ago, Foxxed said:

This reminds me that I should start paying attention to what Pep's done tactics wise instead of just moaning Man City have destroyed the thrill of the chase half way through the season. But broken records or not I can't help but look at the points difference between first and second and yawn. I mean, it was fascinating and wonderful to look at how we were playing in 15/16 but without Spurs breathing down our necks it wouldn't have been half as thrilling.

I don't really care who wins if it's not us. I want to be entertained and Man City have been awesome so far. 

 

And just how would our only title win ever be less thrilling if we'd won by twenty points? Bemusing!

[Foxxed]

3 minutes ago, shen said:

I don't really care who wins if it's not us. I want to be entertained and Man City have been awesome so far. 

 

And just how would our only title win ever be less thrilling if we'd won by twenty points? Bemusing!

We have different interpretations on what's entertaining I guess. I do love to watch beautiful football. But if I only wanted to watch beautiful football I'd go watch a Barcelona training session. Football, like good TV, needs to have suspense and the unexpected. If we'd have won the league five games before we did I genuinely wouldn't have been as interested in those games as I was. I'd be as interested as I was again the match again Chelsea at the end of the season.

[Foxxed]

On 29/12/2017 at 18:51, kushiro said:

Part 3:   The Extreme Unlikeliness of Long Sequences

 

It's easy to frame Man City's winning run as an unstoppable force removing all objects in its path, but there have been many moments when the run could easily have come to an end. They've had so many late winning goals, and last minute close shaves where they might so easily have conceded an equaliser (Ederson's double save at Man U, Dwight Gayle on Wednesday).  What might come to be seen as the most crucial moment, however, was at the King Power on November 18th when referee Graham Scott decided that Vincent Kompany's trip on Jamie Vardy in the third minute was worthy of just a yellow card.

 

All this suggests that any long sequence requires quite a large helping of good luck, and depends on chance factors more than is usually acknowledged. 

 

 

Looking back at Vardy's 11 game scoring run you can't help but draw the same conclusion. There were so many moments when things might have been different:

 

If Mahrez had not been substituted at Bournemouth, he and not Vardy would have taken the penalty (game 1 of the 11).

 

If Mahrez had not been dropped for the game at Norwich, he and not Vardy would have taken the penalty (game 5).

 

If in the Watford game (game 9), Mahrez, after grabbing the ball for the penalty, had ignored Drinkwater's intervention and not handed the ball to Vardy....

 

If Vardy had not passed a late fitness test before the game at St. James' Park (game 10)...

 

If the lineman had flagged Vardy offside (it was touch and go) in the same game...

 

 

There's a fantastic article about this topic by Stephen Jay Gould:

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/1988/08/18/the-streak-of-streaks/

Fascinating article, that. Especially on why we're so attracted to streaks. I'm not sure I agree it's "cheating death" but the idea the impossible is possible is, I think, essential.

Edited 2 January 2018 by Foxxed