xG Discussion

[Captain...]

How's our xG looking? I feel like we're probably performing closer to our xG by missing more chances does that mean we've got better or worse?

[CosbehFox]

Improvement again today 2.24 - lovely stuff 

[Otis]

Totally pointless unless these is an xG trophy

[Leeds Fox]

32 minutes ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Improvement again today 2.24 - lovely stuff 

 

Get in!!! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Dave Fishwick]

some "proper football men" in here

 

[Stadt]

What I found a bit annoying amongst the Leicester are over performing their xG articles was that they all suggested it was unsustainable, rather than we were winning without actually playing too well - but we had scope to actually start playing well. Which is exactly what we’ve done. 
 

Even as an advocate of xG it relies on shots actually happening and misses when shots should have been taken but weren’t. Pérez couldn’t sort his feet out but that would have led to a high value shot.

 

I’m not sure how mainstream it will ever get given a lot can’t or won’t get to grips but Barca’s data scientists have pioneered Expected possession value (EPV) because I suppose you can work out this dangerous a cross from a certain position is, for example. Or that Vardy chance against Wolves (?) where he missed the ball but it would have been a 0.95 xG chance or summat like that but it does show that football analytics are rapidly expanding.

Lost track of whatever point I was gonna make, it’s all bollocks anyway, up the city.

Edited 2 December 2019 by Stadt

[CosbehFox]

6 hours ago, Stadt said:

What I found a bit annoying amongst the Leicester are over performing their xG articles was that they all suggested it was unsustainable, rather than we were winning without actually playing too well - but we had scope to actually start playing well. Which is exactly what we’ve done. 
 

Even as an advocate of xG it relies on shots actually happening and misses when shots should have been taken but weren’t. Pérez couldn’t sort his feet out but that would have led to a high value shot.

 

I’m not sure how mainstream it will ever get given a lot can’t or won’t get to grips but Barca’s data scientists have pioneered Expected possession value (EPV) because I suppose you can work out this dangerous a cross from a certain position is, for example. Or that Vardy chance against Wolves (?) where he missed the ball but it would have been a 0.95 xG chance or summat like that but it does show that football analytics are rapidly expanding.

Lost track of whatever point I was gonna make, it’s all bollocks anyway, up the city.

Exactly, xG needs context - it’s ironic that mainstream media sources use it, analysts at clubs do too but place it within the context of the game. Having read Christoph Biermann’s book they are still trying to find the most precise way of achieving that accurate analysis of performance. 

 

Theres one method I can’t remember the name which is effectively about bypassing opposition players - team who gets the ball past their opposition as much as possible generally wins - if the passes are medium distance, even more probable to win 

Edited 2 December 2019 by Cardiff_Fox

[Stadt]

3 hours ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

Exactly, xG needs context - it’s ironic that mainstream media sources use it, analysts at clubs do too but place it within the context of the game. Having read Christoph Biermann’s book they are still trying to find the most precise way of achieving that accurate analysis of performance. 

 

Theres one method I can’t remember the name which is effectively about bypassing opposition players - team who gets the ball past their opposition as much as possible generally wins - if the passes are medium distance, even more probable to win 

“Packing”  

 

I think one single metric isn’t enough tbh, I don’t like xG being used for analysing one or two games because the sample size isn’t big enough.