xG Discussion

[lildave3]

10 minutes ago, Saxondale said:

How many league points do you get for xG?

So we are a better team than Man City? And Sheffield United are the 5th best team in the country? 

[Raw Dykes]

24 minutes ago, Saxondale said:

Disagree. Creating chances is not the same as scoring goals. No such thing as 'should have scored'.

So you don't think you're more likely to score when you create more chances, better chances or both?

 

Oh really? When you saw Rashford miss an empty net from about 3 yards out yesterday, you didn't think he should have scored, then? Give me a break.

[Babylon]

13 minutes ago, lildave3 said:

So we are a better team than Man City? And Sheffield United are the 5th best team in the country? 

Currently, yes. 

[lildave3]

2 minutes ago, Babylon said:

Currently, yes. 

So based on this, if we played Man City at a neutral venue you would have us as favourites?

[Babylon]

1 minute ago, Raw Dykes said:

So you don't think you're more likely to score when you create more chances, better chances or both?

 

Oh really? When you saw Rashford miss an empty net from about 3 yards out yesterday, you didn't think he should have scored, then? Give me a break.

But what I don't like about it is that in the eyes of the Xg stuff, Rashford being Rashford and missing a sitter is twisted as being some sort of long term positive, where as Vardy being regularly capable of dispatching fairly difficult chances is a cross in ours and seen as a long term negative. "Man U are underperforming and Leicester are over performing".... When in reality Leicester have a top class striker and Man U don't. 

[Babylon]

1 minute ago, lildave3 said:

So based on this, if we played Man City at a neutral venue you would have us as favourites?

When will be playing at a neutral venue?

[lildave3]

1 minute ago, Babylon said:

When will be playing at a neutral venue?

Completely hypothetical. But if you want a real answer it could the Carabao cup final, FA Cup semi/final or even next years Champions League final. We are favourites? 

[Babylon]

Just now, lildave3 said:

Completely hypothetical. But if you want a real answer it could the Carabao cup final, FA Cup semi/final or even next years Champions League final. We are favourites? 

You'd have to ask me closer to the time as form fluctuates, injuries happen. 

 

At this moment in time I'd fancy us against their injury hit defence. In 5 months time with everyone back and another £100m spent in January I most probably wouldn't. 

[lildave3]

Just now, Babylon said:

You'd have to ask me closer to the time as form fluctuates, injuries happen. 

 

At this moment in time I'd fancy us against their injury hit defence. In 5 months time with everyone back and another £100m spent in January I most probably wouldn't. 

I’m asking now, this hypothetical game is tomorrow at a completely neutral venue. Fancying us is fine, believing we are the better team and favourites to win is completely different and a little bit mental. 

[Ric Flair]

26 minutes ago, lildave3 said:

I’m asking now, this hypothetical game is tomorrow at a completely neutral venue. Fancying us is fine, believing we are the better team and favourites to win is completely different and a little bit mental. 

Yes, I think we would beat them. Right now I think we would beat everyone. I even think we'd do Liverpool playing 4-1-4-1. Boxing Day can't come soon enough, I want maximum pain inflicted on Jurgen Klopp and him yet again refuse to give us any praise.

[Babylon]

52 minutes ago, lildave3 said:

I’m asking now, this hypothetical game is tomorrow at a completely neutral venue. Fancying us is fine, believing we are the better team and favourites to win is completely different and a little bit mental. 

Yes because they only played last night. 

[Guest SO1]

1 hour ago, Babylon said:

When will be playing at a neutral venue?

Wembley?

[FireFox]

3 hours ago, Babylon said:

Currently, yes. 

"Currently" doesn't mean anything until the end of the season. Each team has different fixtures.

 

3 hours ago, lildave3 said:

So based on this, if we played Man City at a neutral venue you would have us as favourites?

Head to head is not an accurate reflection of who is the better team. Or else Arsenal were the better team when we won the league.

[Babylon]

21 minutes ago, FireFox said:

"Currently" doesn't mean anything until the end of the season. Each team has different fixtures.

Makes zero sense in terms of the discussion.

[FireFox]

44 minutes ago, Babylon said:

Makes zero sense in terms of the discussion.

What part of the discussion am I missing? Neither xG nor league position after 12 games is an accurate reflection of who is "currently" the better/best team... Because you need to take into account that each team has had different fixtures (and other circumstances) that directly affect xG and league position.

[Babylon]

7 minutes ago, FireFox said:

What part of the discussion am I missing? Neither xG nor league position after 12 games is an accurate reflection of who is "currently" the better/best team... Because you need to take into account that each team has had different fixtures (and other circumstances) that directly affect xG and league position.

I didn’t say either of those things were. I was asked who was the better team, currently with their injuries in defence I very much think we can beat them. In 4 months when they return I doubt we would. Or wouldn’t regularly beat that team anyway, there is always a one off.

[FireFox]

4 minutes ago, Babylon said:

I didn’t say either of those things were. I was asked who was the better team, currently with their injuries ...

You replied to this:

5 hours ago, lildave3 said:

So we are a better team than Man City? And Sheffield United are the 5th best team in the country? 

Thus you weren't just asked who is the better team, you were asked so based on the premise of the current league table being an accurate reflection of how good a team is. 

 

Whatever though, this discussion about who asked what isn't relevant to xG.

[Babylon]

5 minutes ago, FireFox said:

You replied to this:

Thus you weren't just asked who is the better team, you were asked so based on the premise of the current league table being an accurate reflection of how good a team is. 

 

Whatever though, this discussion about who asked what isn't relevant to xG.

He brought up the table not me. Sheffield United have beaten the team in 6th and narrowly lost to us and Liverpool. Held Spurs and are currently a match for anyone in the league. Prior to Wolves and Man U winning they’d beaten about the 5 or 6 teams directly under them. 

[Raw Dykes]

6 hours ago, Babylon said:

But what I don't like about it is that in the eyes of the Xg stuff, Rashford being Rashford and missing a sitter is twisted as being some sort of long term positive, where as Vardy being regularly capable of dispatching fairly difficult chances is a cross in ours and seen as a long term negative. "Man U are underperforming and Leicester are over performing".... When in reality Leicester have a top class striker and Man U don't. 

I think the crux of the matter is application. I agree that xG stats used alone, as you say, to gauge a team's performance when compared to another's, isn't very useful. As you rightly point out, xG stats do not take into account how clinical a team's players are in front of goal - they're not trying or pretending to do that. In fact, it is precisely this that xG stats are most useful for telling us. By comparing xG to goals scored, they give a good idea as to whether a team or its individual players are clinical or wasteful.

[Saxondale]

23 hours ago, Raw Dykes said:

So you don't think you're more likely to score when you create more chances, better chances or both?

 

Oh really? When you saw Rashford miss an empty net from about 3 yards out yesterday, you didn't think he should have scored, then? Give me a break.

But if you create lots of chances and your strikers keep missing, then you have crap strikers. Therefore, you're not expected to score goals.

[Raw Dykes]

21 minutes ago, Saxondale said:

But if you create lots of chances and your strikers keep missing, then you have crap strikers. Therefore, you're not expected to score goals.

Doesn't matter. Whether you have a good striker or a shit one, they are still more likely to score given better service.

[CosbehFox]

A whopping 3.5 xG yesterday - SCENES. I had a beer to that after the game 

[Ric Flair]

1 hour ago, Cardiff_Fox said:

A whopping 3.5 xG yesterday - SCENES. I had a beer to that after the game 

Hahaha my immediate thought during the game was, our xG will be through the roof for once. I wonder what angle football365 will be forced to use now on  finding fault with our performances this season.

[HybridFox]

Load of BS. Just like Sky's Power Rankings. Who the f*** comes up with these 

[CosbehFox]

25 minutes ago, Ric Flair said:

Hahaha my immediate thought during the game was, our xG will be through the roof for once. I wonder what angle football365 will be forced to use now on  finding fault with our performances this season.

Every missed chance I was openly celebrating as our xG rating went higher