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Otis

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Otis last won the day on 15 September 2018

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About Otis

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    1989

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  1. Flamengo have an injury list as long as your arm.
  2. Agreed, I think the journalist has their maths wrong reagrding the false positives. But just checked on the Gov website and the 220k tests per day is correct.
  3. An article from less than a week ago. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-isn-t-matt-hancock-taking-false-positive-tests-seriously- The manufacturers of the UK’s RT-PCR tests report that the specificity of those tests is around 99 per cent, meaning that up to one per cent of cases are false positives. Public Health England research suggests however this may be more like 95 per cent in reality. When asked about this by Julia Hartley-Brewer, Hancock replied: 'Under one per cent means that for all the positive cases the likelihood of one being a false positive is very small.' But Hancock is wrong to dismiss this problem so lightly. Perhaps he simply misspoke or, perhaps more worryingly, does not actually understand simple statistics and probability. Last week's official data revealed that the UK has been processing around 220,000 tests a day, a significant increase on a month ago where the average was 170,000. Given one per cent of tests may return a false result, this means that 2,200 of reported Covid-19 ‘cases’ could in fact be false. This means 2,200 people – and their families – forced into isolation; their relatives unnecessarily worried; their workplaces forced to deep clean, or even shut. The rolling average of reported daily cases is currently around 3,300, which would indicate that as many as up to two thirds of the reported case total could, in fact, actually be a testing error. This might lead to the perverse situation that if you test positive for Covid-19 you are actually more likely not to have the virus than have it, hardly the 'very small' likelihood the Health Secretary suggested. So is the government listening to these growing calls to take the issue of false positives seriously? The Royal Statistical Society has warned the Government that: 'Tests cause harm when they miss or wrongly diagnose cases. Our current tests have one and two per cent false positive rates – which, when millions are being tested every day, risks causing personal and economic harm to tens of thousands of people. This problem is exacerbated if the new tests, as is likely, are less accurate than the ones used currently.' One way to guard against unnecessary panic and potential overreaction would be to test those with positive results again as it is very unlikely that someone would receive two false positive results (one in ten thousand chance). However when the Health Secretary was asked about this he was unable to say how many people receive two tests, only commenting that 'we do do that sometimes'. Given the scale of the problem, this is hardly reassuring and suggests a lack of awareness of this significant issue. With the ongoing shortage of testing capacity, it is also hard to see how the government will be able to adopt a two-test solution any time soon. In the mean time, more and more people will potentially get false results and the worry and panic that comes with this. As testing volumes continue to increase, the role of false positives will naturally play an increasingly important role unless a test with significantly higher accuracy is developed. Even with the current challenges some people face in getting a single test, the government needs to urgently prioritise re-testing ‘positive’ Covid cases to weed out phantom cases. A failure to do so could inflict unnecessary damage, alarm and concern on a weary public and struggling businesses.
  4. Pehaps they didn't know they had it at the time, but have recently devoped a cough so thought they'd better get tested.
  5. Correct so there's no risk. But these peoples lives are now being put on hold which is immoral. The false increase in figures adds to the scaremongering so more people agree and comply with the stricter measures, when there is no need.
  6. Agree by posting charts like that they are losing all credibility. Why not post a chart that quadruples, then by Christmas there'll be no one left.
  7. Totally agree, That's all we needed to do.
  8. No idea but you can't stay locked down for ever. As soon is people start moving around more of course the cases will rise, just like the flu and other infectious deseases/viruses. I agree everyone needs to be sensible, not go around licking each other. The current measures have gone to far peoples lives are being ruinned.
  9. Sweden would beg to differ.
  10. 22 deaths per day (some nothing to do with covid, why even hide this figure? but that's another discussion) And a couple of hundred in hospital. These figures are tiny.
  11. The governments reaction cuased the issues.
  12. No, it's not threatening the NHS and never did, there was and certainly is now plenty of capacity.
  13. But the point is we we've never been close to closing the whole country down for any other infectious disease. We need to get this into perspective.
  14. But not these 4 ??? Ghezzal Silva Diabate Slimani
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