Flooding

[Sly]

More rain

In adequate soak away

In adequate drainage system

Less cleaning / maintenance

It is a recipe for disaster. 
Which is what we are seeing.

[Trav Le Bleu]

There is rain to come.

Fields already full to brim.

Much woe for us all.

[Lako42]

Rain rain

Go away

Come again

Another day

[jgtuk]

3 hours ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

There is rain to come.

Fields already full to brim.

Much woe for us all.

We should dedicate a particular day where all posts have to be in the form of Haiku, then maybe sonnets or the like on another day. 

[Zear0]

31 minutes ago, jgtuk said:

We should dedicate a particular day where all posts have to be in the form of Haiku, then maybe sonnets or the like on another day. 

Rudkin’s plans fall short,
The pitch remains full of hope,
But no wins in sight.

[Lako42]

It's raining on our parade

We don't really care

Soggy Thai influencers

wet lettuce heir

[dsr-burnley]

5 hours ago, leicsmac said:

... and, yet again, that we're getting more water with more intensity over less time in the first place, due to increasing global average temperatures.

Are there statistics for that?

[leicsmac]

31 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

Are there statistics for that?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2023/new-research-shows-increasing-frequency-of-extreme-rainfall-events

 

 

There is.

[dsr-burnley]

4 hours ago, leicsmac said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2023/new-research-shows-increasing-frequency-of-extreme-rainfall-events

 

 

There is.

No, that's a prediction.  Even the so-called historic data is a prediction working backwards of what it might have been.

 

Is there any actual recorded data that shows number of extreme rainfall events?

[leicsmac]

9 minutes ago, dsr-burnley said:

No, that's a prediction.  Even the so-called historic data is a prediction working backwards of what it might have been.

 

Is there any actual recorded data that shows number of extreme rainfall events?

That graph up until the present day is based on recorded data, as the article explains. The future information within it is indeed a prediction, based on that previous information.

 

If you want the actual raw data then I'll have a deeper dive, but frankly I'm curious as to why this, along with other information regarding climate change that is easily accessible, would not suffice.

 

Edit:

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094721000372

 

This article provides similar conclusions based on raw data.

 

 

Edited 8 January by leicsmac

[jgtuk]

43 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

That graph up until the present day is based on recorded data, as the article explains. The future information within it is indeed a prediction, based on that previous information.

 

If you want the actual raw data then I'll have a deeper dive, but frankly I'm curious as to why this, along with other information regarding climate change that is easily accessible, would not suffice.

 

Edit:

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094721000372

 

This article provides similar conclusions based on raw data.

 

 

Yeah, but prove it though 

 

 

 

[dsr-burnley]

6 hours ago, leicsmac said:

That graph up until the present day is based on recorded data, as the article explains. The future information within it is indeed a prediction, based on that previous information.

 

If you want the actual raw data then I'll have a deeper dive, but frankly I'm curious as to why this, along with other information regarding climate change that is easily accessible, would not suffice.

 

Edit:

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094721000372

 

This article provides similar conclusions based on raw data.

 

 

The graph, so far as I can read it, is based entirely on the model figures.  It does mention in the detail of the article that the model started in the past so they could compare model figures with the actual figures, but I can't actually see in that article where they have done it.  Thanks for the info, anyway.

 

The second article is interesting too.  The raw data can (I think) be found by putting together the various bits of info scattered around the article, but what I think it amounts to is that the number of days with more than 2 inches of rainfall, for any given part of the country, has gone from about 3 every 10 years to about 4 every 10 years.  I wonder how much variation would be expected on a purely random basis?

 

From personal observation, about floods not rainfall this time, there is a certain caravan site in Eckington, Worcestershire which used to flood every winter without fail in the seventies.  In the eighties this stopped happening, and people replaced their old fashioned tin box caravans (no electric or plumbing) with newer ones with all mod cons.  In the nineties the site flooded once, and in the 2000's, after the caravans had been replaced, it flooded once more.  The site has now moved to the next field on higher ground, but the original site is still flooding only rarely.  There are multiple causes - I doubt that lower rainfall is the cause, but improved river management of the Severn and Avon probably is.  (The 2000's flood was a summer flood, which is unusual, but the figures from your second article suggest that summer rainfall is not increasing anyway.)

 

There is also a bridge in Worcester marking the height of the River Severn floods.  There are numerous examples from the 1600;s, fewer from the 1700's, then nothing until the second half of the 1900's.  There is clearly more to flooding than just climate change, and studies need to be very much in depth to get to the bottom of it all.

 

 

[leicsmac]

6 hours ago, dsr-burnley said:

The graph, so far as I can read it, is based entirely on the model figures.  It does mention in the detail of the article that the model started in the past so they could compare model figures with the actual figures, but I can't actually see in that article where they have done it.  Thanks for the info, anyway.

 

The second article is interesting too.  The raw data can (I think) be found by putting together the various bits of info scattered around the article, but what I think it amounts to is that the number of days with more than 2 inches of rainfall, for any given part of the country, has gone from about 3 every 10 years to about 4 every 10 years.  I wonder how much variation would be expected on a purely random basis?

 

From personal observation, about floods not rainfall this time, there is a certain caravan site in Eckington, Worcestershire which used to flood every winter without fail in the seventies.  In the eighties this stopped happening, and people replaced their old fashioned tin box caravans (no electric or plumbing) with newer ones with all mod cons.  In the nineties the site flooded once, and in the 2000's, after the caravans had been replaced, it flooded once more.  The site has now moved to the next field on higher ground, but the original site is still flooding only rarely.  There are multiple causes - I doubt that lower rainfall is the cause, but improved river management of the Severn and Avon probably is.  (The 2000's flood was a summer flood, which is unusual, but the figures from your second article suggest that summer rainfall is not increasing anyway.)

 

There is also a bridge in Worcester marking the height of the River Severn floods.  There are numerous examples from the 1600;s, fewer from the 1700's, then nothing until the second half of the 1900's.  There is clearly more to flooding than just climate change, and studies need to be very much in depth to get to the bottom of it all.

 

 

Certainly there is. House and other infrastructure placement, for one thing.

 

I do however take entirely legitimate issue when it's not mentioned as a part of the equation at all, because that kind of overlooking of a massively important factor is firstly entirely inaccurate, and secondly dangerous, because without accounting for it and mitigating it these events will happen again and again and again - even with the best house placement and drainage systems money can buy and implement.