Big 6 - An analysis

[Golden Fox]

I wanted to run some numbers to look at the effect the European money has had on the 6 breakaway clubs and the impact on English football.

 

I decided to take a cut-off of 1996 to see the impact (a couple of years after the Premier League had been in place & once some of the early champions won with money from a pre-Premier League era had filtered out: so I compared the 24 years before compared to the 24 years since:

 

Data

		1972 to 1996					1996 to 2020
		League	FA Cup	League Cup	Total		League	FA Cup	League Cup	Total
"Big 6"		16	15	10	41		23	22	18	63
Non "Big 6" teams		8	9	14	31		1	2	6	9
Total		24	24	24	72		24	24	24	72
% won by big 6		67%	63%	42%	57%		96%	92%	75%	88%
No of different non-Big 6 clubs winning		6	7	7	17		1	2	5	7

In the 24 years before this 1996 cut-off, we had 17 different non-Big 6 clubs winning trophies, and if you exclude the League Cup, 12 different teams lifting major trophies.

In the 24 years since, we have had 7 different non-Big 6 clubs winning trophies, and if you exclude the League Cup, 3 different teams lifting major trophies.

 

Analysis

Before the advent of these clubs dominating, we had a healthy competitive balance, with 12 non-Big 6 teams winning 17 trophies between them including 6 leagues and 7 FA Cups. Yes, the big 6 were still big, but only accounted for 2/3 of the leagues, less than 2/3 of the FA Cups and less than half of the League Cups.

 

Since then, there has been no chance of anyone else winning the league (well, maybe a 1 in 5000 chance), and a minimal chance of anyone else winning the FA Cup (Portsmouth and Wigan is it). The League Cup was slightly more open, but has reverted back to the Big 6 in the last 7 years.

 

These 6 teams have created a closed shop to the extent that they have won 45 out of 48 of the last League & FA Cups between them (and already secured 2/3 this year, with just the FA Cup to come). Everyone else is looking for scraps - but this wasn't the case before.

 

Teams that won the League or FA Cup between 1972 & 1996, but have won nothing since:

Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Everton
Leeds United
West Ham United
Derby County
Sunderland
Southampton
Ipswich Town
Coventry City
Wimbledon
 

Teams that won nothing between 1972 & 1996, but have won the League or FA Cup since:

Leicester City
Portsmouth
Wigan Athletic
 

Conclusion

Historically, we have had a rich heritage of teams being able to compete and win things. Since the Premier League came in, followed by the Champions League, this has been completely eroded, with hardly a look-in from anyone else.

 

Were these 6 teams to be removed from the English competitions, it wouldn't destroy the competition. It would open it back up to what it was and give other teams the chance to win that they used to have.

 

It just show how much we have all been conditioned to the same clubs winning things: it is just disillusioning for fans - with us probably being the only fan base in the Country that has managed to thrive since. (Portsmouth & Wigan currently in Tier 3!) If the Big 6 disappeared overnight, I'm not actually sure many people would be sad to see them go, and would go back to far more big matches and far more enjoyment of their football!

 

PS

2 teams picked out that are a bit at odds with the above analysis:

 

		1972 to 1996					1996 to 2020
		League	FA Cup	League Cup	Total		League	FA Cup	League Cup	Total
Tottenham Hotspur		-	3	1	4		-	-	2	2
Leicester City		-	-	-	-		1	-	2	3

 

[Foxxed]

I'd like to know how dependent the 14 teams are on the TV money. And how much less TV money they could survive on. They need to service their loans. And can they service them when they make, I assume, significantly less money. This seems be the crux of the big six's power.

 

 

Edited 19 April 2021 by Foxxed

[Bats8711]

I understand that being a foreign fan I don’t understand all the intricacies of English football history and culture, but from the outside looking in this seems like a gift wrapped chance to clean house of the six worst things about the premier league and I hope they have the guts to take it.  
 

No matter how much money these teams get short term - they can’t buy every player. There are more than 12 good strikers in the world. And there definitely will be at least some top tier players who don’t want to be involved in it. 

[AndyElZorro]

Good read that! Amazing to think that for a quarter of a century we have been more successful than Spurs. 

[ozleicester]

Nailed it...
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/apr/19/power-grab-in-a-pandemic-european-super-league-absence-of-fans-tv-income

[Kilworthfox]

As good as your analysis is... European qualification, especially in the Champions League European Cup would be a good column to add.  However, the financial rewards are far greater now in comparison with the European Cup. But the money is the motivator, hence the value in that information.

[murphy]

15 hours ago, AndyElZorro said:

Good read that! Amazing to think that for a quarter of a century we have been more successful than Spurs. 

To be fair, so has Wigan.

 

I'd say that 1 FA Cup > 2 League Cups.