Group C permutations for final game.

[davieG]

From the BBC

ENGLAND BEAT SLOVENIA, USA DRAW OR LOSE AGAINST ALGERIAThe dour performance against Algeria is forgotten and a nation rejoices (or something like that) as England keep their World Cup hopes alive. England would qualify as Group C winners with five points and secure a meeting with the runners-up from Group D (possibly Germany). If USA draw, Slovenia advance as runners-up. If USA lose, goal difference would determine whether Slovenia (currently +1) or Algeria (-1) go through in second place.

ENGLAND BEAT SLOVENIA, USA BEAT ALGERIAFabio Capello can breathe easily in this instance too as England book their place in the last 16. England and USA would finish level on five points and goal difference would determine who progresses as Group C winners. If goal difference remains level, as is the case at the moment, goals scored (currently England 1, USA 3) would decide who finishes top.

ENGLAND DRAW, USA DRAWIn this scenario, England need a high scoring draw on Wednesday. Slovenia would go through as group winners, with England and USA finishing level on three points. Goals scored would decide who progresses. There is the possibility for drama even greater than that of a penalty shoot-out - if both sides are totally even then lots will be drawn to decide who goes through and who is out.

ENGLAND DRAW, USA WIN OR LOSEEngland head for the departures gate and will probably not take much solace from the fact that they will be unbeaten and be home in time to watch the tennis at Wimbledon. Should USA win then they would finish level with Slovenia on five points and progress, should Bob Bradley's men lose then Algeria, with four points, would take the runners-up spot.

ENGLAND LOSEDoomsday. England are eliminated and finish the group with two points. The post-mortem begins.

[Tilley]

We'll win, so will the USA.

[Matt]

Had a BBQ today we've all been discussing it.

Out of 7 people, 4 people think we'll lose, 2 people think we'll draw and 1 person thinks we'll win (Blind Optimism IMO).

Personally I reckon we'll go 2-0 before half time, Slovenia will then come back in the second half and equalise, the game will finish 2-2. USA will draw 0-0 with Algeria and we will sneak through to the 2nd round, undeservadly.

[maddog]

If we win, we're through.

If we don't win we're out.

The 2 draws scenario will never happen.

[The Doctor]

If we win, we're through.

If we don't win we're out.

The 2 draws scenario will never happen.

why not? there is a 1 in 9 chance of that happening.

[Guest Mee-9]

If we win, we're through.

If we don't win we're out.

The 2 draws scenario will never happen.

State the obvious Maddog

[Guest NGoloMode]

I am SO confident we will win against Slovenia.

[Lillehamring]

If we win, we're through.

If we don't win we're out.

The 2 draws scenario will never happen.

ahh, just a little maddogetry to get us through the long summer

[AyewJoking]

England and USA both to win 2-1. We'll finish 2nd then wont we????

[marbelladave]

England and USA both to win 2-1. We'll finish 2nd then wont we????

England need to win by a better margin than USA to top the group on goal difference.

So if the septics win 1-0, we need to win 2-0 and so on.

Otherwise it's Germany in the round of 16. (Most probably)

[AyewJoking]

Germany in 2nd round is acceptable, beat them and England will be nailed on favourites for the cup.

Better Germany who will try to beat us rather than sit back and defend, make us frustrated because we havent a clue how to break through and end up with Rooney sent off and Lamps and Gerrard gone AWOL.

[leicesterfox86]

ENGLAND BEAT SLOVENIA, USA BEAT ALGERIA

I think it is the most likely situation... if England find a way to create a good play.

[marbelladave]

Germany in 2nd round is acceptable, beat them and England will be nailed on favourites for the cup.

Better Germany who will try to beat us rather than sit back and defend, make us frustrated because we havent a clue how to break through and end up with Rooney sent off and Lamps and Gerrard gone AWOL.

I suggested something like this back at the start of the Tournament.

A game against the old enemy is possibly the only way to get the England team galvanised enough to put in a performance. A win for England. however unlikely, would lift the team and boost confidence in a way that nothing else could.

Beat Germany and we play, in all probability, Argentina, another game that will need little in the way of a teamtalk, just Psyco winding them up and sending them out.

I said then and I say now that the above is the only scenario that I can see that England can make an impact, so a nice 1-0 on Wednesday will do me fine....

[LCFC-ARAB]

are the standing decided on goal difference or head to head?

if its head to head i'll have to support Slovenia against England

and hope that we beat USA

although i realy did want Algeria and England to both get through

EDIT: just seen goal difference mentioned in the first post, i was being an idiot

dream scenario for me - England win 2 nil Algeria Win 1 nil, if my maths is correct we'll finish second and England top

then Germany in teh next round, we've played them twice and beat them twice, i'd be confident

[Jordan]

In reply to marabelladave, there is a caveat: USA could win 1-0, but if England win by one by any score higher than 3-2, England will finish 1st, having scored more goals. If they win 3-2 and USA win 1-0, I'm not sure if FIFA will "draw lots" to determine seeding or if England finish 1st due to their having of a higher World Ranking (b/c in this case, the tiebreaker will not eliminate either team).

Being an American sports fan, I am fairly well versed in these last-day-of-the-season playoff-picture scenarios. I'm on my phone so I can't double-check the tiebreaker rules in the second scenario I mentioned.

[marbelladave]

In reply to marabelladave, there is a caveat: USA could win 1-0, but if England win by one by any score higher than 3-2, England will finish 1st, having scored more goals. If they win 3-2 and USA win 1-0, I'm not sure if FIFA will "draw lots" to determine seeding or if England finish 1st due to their having of a higher World Ranking (b/c in this case, the tiebreaker will not eliminate either team).

Being an American sports fan, I am fairly well versed in these last-day-of-the-season playoff-picture scenarios. I'm on my phone so I can't double-check the tiebreaker rules in the second scenario I mentioned.

True enough, though I was trying to keep things relatively simple on the basis that scoring more than a goal or two seems beyond England at the moment.

If the situation occurs that we are tied with the US on points, goal difference and goals scored, I assumed it would come down to 'drawing lots', it never occurred to me that Ranking would come into it.

Anyone confirm that?

[Tilley]

I want Germany in the round of 16 should we get there. Our mentality against 'minnows' is shit, we think we can just turn them over. We need a big game against a team we have a bit of history with, players would definitely turn up, I have no doubt about it.

[Lisburn Fox]

England will win 3 - 0 USA will win 1 - 0. Thats about it..

[Alexikokopops]

why not? there is a 1 in 9 chance of that happening.

Fantastic use of probability there

[Corky]

Let's hope it doesn't come down to net run-rate.

Come on England, win the game so we don't need to worry about the other match.

[Fosse Boy]

Let's hope it doesn't come down to net run-rate.

Come on England, win the game so we don't need to worry about the other match.

They'll be sorry they didn't put Walcott in the squad then. Apparently he's a decent cricketer...

[BoneDog]

I hate the idea of drawing lots to decide who goes home if 2nd and 3rd place are equal on goal difference and points. Horrible.

I would like to see a penalty shootout the day after the last games. Maybe out of 10 instead of 5 That would be much fairer and very entertaining.

[Jordan]

True enough, though I was trying to keep things relatively simple on the basis that scoring more than a goal or two seems beyond England at the moment.

If the situation occurs that we are tied with the US on points, goal difference and goals scored, I assumed it would come down to 'drawing lots', it never occurred to me that Ranking would come into it.

Anyone confirm that?

No, I was mistaken--not as well-versed as I thought... I don't know where I read that this tiebreaker would be used if two teams were tied for first place--I probably didn't even read it in the first place. Even if England and USA finish tied in everything on top of the groups, drawing of lots it will be.

http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/competition/fifa_wc_south_africa_2010_regulations_en_14123.pdf

Page 41

[Fosse Fox]

I hate the idea of drawing lots to decide who goes home if 2nd and 3rd place are equal on goal difference and points. Horrible.

I would like to see a penalty shootout the day after the last games. Maybe out of 10 instead of 5 That would be much fairer and very entertaining.

A bit of a logistical nightmare don't you think?

FIFA bang on about fair play but in reality it counts for little. There is a strong moral argument that disciplinary records should replace penalty shoot outs (entertaining as they are) but I understand that fans might be reluctant to accept this change.

However, as an alternative to drawing lots to determine who goes through to the knock out phase the case for taking into account the number of yellow and red cards issued is compelling particularly when you consider that theoretically it is possible all the teams in a group to be dead level on all criteria at the end of the round robin stage.

[BoneDog]

A bit of a logistical nightmare don't you think?

FIFA bang on about fair play but in reality it counts for little. There is a strong moral argument that disciplinary records should replace penalty shoot outs (entertaining as they are) but I understand that fans might be reluctant to accept this change.

However, as an alternative to drawing lots to determine who goes through to the knock out phase the case for taking into account the number of yellow and red cards issued is compelling particularly when you consider that theoretically it is possible all the teams in a group to be dead level on all criteria at the end of the round robin stage.

Yes I agree it would most likely be a logistical nightmare, so yellow and reds would probably be a better option. Though even then you have the high possibility of terrible referee decisions coming into play, so in many cases that would probably be just as unfair as drawing lots. It's a tough one!