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About HereBeFoxes

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  1. Ah yes I remember now, this is what it’s like being a Leicester supporter.
  2. I too shall be in High Peak, albeit so far to the west that if I get drunk and fall over the wrong way I’ll be in Cheshire.
  3. I want us to get 3rd at the moment, so all results preferences are based on maximising the chances of that. Ergo Man U win > draw > LFC win.
  4. So, deduct points from one of them, regulate them, and then vote to expel the rest. EFL can deal with expelling that one, or PL do it if/when they’re promoted again.
  5. Do these people even watch us play? How many passes to youri’s supergoal in the last match?
  6. Let’s overhaul them in the league now and take out Southampton in the semi - FA cup final 1st v 2nd - old school.
  7. Yes - for the run those tables come from not entirely arbitrarily - they are based on the performance of each team over the last 8 matches - one can put any probabilities one wants, in, I'm just lazy and there are 90+ of them so I make an algorithm to look at the WLD probabilities for each team in a tie and calculate some liklihoods, quite simplistically I admit. An example, Villa-Spurs it calculates as 33% chance home win, 25% draw, 42% away win. Doesn't seem insane, but really who knows. If I could get the probabilities from somewhere else (although obviously they're all going
  8. Sorry - Monte Carlo is a method of simulating and quantifying the possible range of outcomes from a series of probabilistic events; in this case each remaining match in the Premier League can either be a home win, draw, or away win. One assigns a probability to each of these outcomes, and then runs the remaining 92 matches (in this case) 10,000 times, with the result of each match randomly determined according to the assigned probabilities. You then get 10,000 final tables, each one of which is a real possible outcome. These numbers are the percentage of times in the 10,000 final
  9. And the same again for 3rd: Points Frequency % (cumulative) 62 0.04% 63 0.5% 64 2% 65 6% 66 13% 67 24% 68 39% 69 56% 70 70% 71 83% 72 92% 73 96% 74 99% 75 99% 76 99.8% 77 99.96% 78 100.00%
  10. Some more output from my (yes, flawed) monte carlo simulation; points needed for (at least) 4th. Eg 68 points will get you 4th (or higher) in 84% of the simulation runs. Remember - it's just a bit of fun (but these are real actual theoretical possibilies from possible combinations of real world results - ie it could happen that 58 points is enough for 4th. Don't lump on it though). Points Frequency % (cumulative) 58 0.04% 59 0.2% 60 1% 61 2% 62 6% 63 13% 64 25% 65 40% 66 56% 67
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