Les-TA-Jon

Interesting reporting from the BBC

It’s also about accounting for our personnel. With Vestergaard at the centre of defence a lot of our play is about reducing how many turnovers we have and rarely conceding transitions. it’s why we tend to take fewer risks the further up the pitch we go.

But what if the first yellow is the one that was ‘wrong’ and should have been VAR’d and the 2nd yellow isn’t debatable? that’s my point. You can’t review 2nd yellows without opening the can of worms of needing to review ALL yellows. Which of course would be a nonsense

Terrible take

This doesn't quite work in practice though because then you'd need to VAR check every single yellow card. The 1st yellow is just as importance as the 2nd in a sending off

Same as Southampton. 4.

The maths does work. I'm deliberately accounting for Southampton's game in hand. If we're going to compare results, it's unfair to say 23 wins vs 18 win when we've played one more game. Either way, there's demonstrably not much between us and Southampton this season. 4 games difference.

I'm just saying, that 3 draws vs 7 draws is the same as 22 wins vs 18 wins It's 4 games where the results are different. They're different, because we won them and they drew them. 8 more points dropped, hence the 8 point gap.

That's just 3 draws vs 7 draws expressed in a different way isn't it?

Probably the 21 game unbeaten run. They took 51 points to our 48 in that run. They're 'only' 2-3 results behind us if they win their game in hand.

I don't know where this idea of 'Southampton had a rubbish start' comes from. They lost 4 in a row, sure, but haven't lost since. But we've lost 4 ourselves. The only difference between us and Southampton is our 3 draws vs their 7

To be fair the top levels of the game do have an increasing problem of dissent, cynical fouls, shirt pulling and time wasting. We've all seen it, how teams look to commit fouls in just the 'right' area of the pitch to stop a transition/counter but not get a yellow. Or when players commit a cynical foul to stop a break and either don't get carded because they're a 'nice' player (Winks...) or they do but then another player takes the mantle for performing that kind of foul. But I don't think Blue cards and sin bins are the solution. Why not just ask Refs to actually implement the existing rules? Dissent? Yellow Cynical foul on the transition? Yellow - regardless of who's doing it or where it is on the pitch Time wasting? Yellow And I wish Refs would stop giving 2nd yellows as if it's a red. If it's a yellow, it's a yellow and its the player's fault, not the refs, if they get sent off

Not sure we're the ones with our pants down. We've had him a year early for a nominal fee, meanwhile they're deprived of him. They've locked themselves into a sale value that can't account for how well he does this season. And as soon as we go up and sign him permanently in the summer he's instantly worth at least twice as much as we paid.

Seems crazy to me that the top 2 get 48% of the prize money given that they get promoted! Wouldn't it be better to not award anything to the 3 promoted sides, and then share it out amongst the other 21?

Oh for sure. Those categorisations will chance week by week too. Relegation threatened teams likely to play better/harder in this end of the season, likewise for promotion hopefuls.

I did say ^^^ Also Southampton's "dreadful start" is overstated. They lost 4 in a row, sure. But haven't lost since. And we've lost 4 times too. The only difference between us and Southampton is 3 draws vs 7 draws And yes, season long run rates are a blunt instrument. Just the same as run rates for shorter periods of form, which are 'worse' for being less reflective of any sort of pattern. Neither are predictive

I'm sure it's possible but I can't be bothered to figure out how! I think it's reassuring to think that current run-rate is: Leicester - 110.4 pts Southampton 96.8 pts Ipswich - 93.6 pts Leeds - 92 pts Leicester still have Southampton and Leeds to play Southampton have to play all 3 of us Leeds have both Leicester and Southampton Ipswich only have Southampton That's 4 fixtures where we'll all take points off each other Either way, I think it's between Game 30 and 38 that'll be most influential. Southampton are likely to close the gap to virtually nothing, and if they beat us in the final game of that stretch it'll be how who holds their nerve in the run in. But if Southampton drop points in that run and we don't blink (much) then it might be all a bit academic by that point.

Wikipedia has Vardy on 436 and Walsh on 450

Another quick analysis - fixtures highlighted by each team's current quartile position Leeds and Ipswich have a much easier next 8 games than us and Southampton. Ipswich: 7/8 vs bottom half Leeds: 7/8 vs bottom half Leicester: 2/8 vs bottom half Southampton: 4/8 vs bottom half

I think 94 points will be enough for Autos. I don't see Leeds and Ipswich improving their run-rate much from here. The big thing will be us vs Southampton for the title, I think. Their huge run can't be ignored, for what it gains them psychologically. (Having said that, their 21 game unbeaten run has only gained them 3 points more than us - 51 vs 48 points) But our head start / gap is obviously in our favour. And I'd rather us lose a few games here and there and win more than them. Looking at the remaining fixtures, I think Southampton will close the gap between games 33 and 38 and then we'll pull away again in the final 8 matches, to sneak it Even if Southampton win every game from now to game 38 and we win each game but lose to Leeds and Southampton, we'll be on 90 points to their 88. Heck, if we do something like W11 D3 L2 (vs Leeds and Southampton), we'd finish on 108 points, which Southampton can only better by going unbeaten for the rest of the season, winning 15+ of their remaining 17 games.

Everyone's lost any attempt at nuance. Is Rudkin highly influential at the club? Yes Are there other people at the club who are above him in the hierarchy? Yes It's possible to think that Rudkin has been highly influential across a period where the club has made a lot of successes and failures but that also there are other people high in the club's hierarchy that are perhaps equally to blame/influential... Saying all that doesn't mean you think Rudkin is totally blameless or the best thing since sliced bread

Pretty sure that's contestable. Some would say the CEO, Board and Chairman are more important/influential...

I can see the gap closing between us and Southampton for matches 30-38 and then us pulling away again

Yeah but Enzo doesn't have a Plan B.

Yeah 1 win in 8, in the league. 1 from 9, including the Maidstone cup defeat They've dropped down to 1.3 points per game over the last 10 games.