Brexit Discussion Thread.

[leicsmac]

21 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

Top economist says the profession is 'in crisis' after getting the post brexit vote economy predictions totally wrong. This is after utterly missing the financial crisis. 

 

Can somebody remind me, when Boris Johnson's economy predictions are more accurate than this lot, what are these 'experts' for again?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38525924    

Since when was economics a hard science where you could have experts anyway?

 

Gives the proper experts in the proper sciences a bad name.

[Innovindil]

14 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

Since when was economics a hard science where you could have experts anyway?

 

Gives the proper experts in the proper sciences a bad name.

It's really not any form of science. These economic "experts" get paid ridiculous sums for entering figures into a computer algorithm and printing the results. Then when they are incorrect (which they will forever be) they can just say "well the computer didn't have enough data blablabla". 

 

I'd rather confer with the local witchdoctor on future events tbh. 

[leicsmac]

4 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

It's really not any form of science. These economic "experts" get paid ridiculous sums for entering figures into a computer algorithm and printing the results. Then when they are incorrect (which they will forever be) they can just say "well the computer didn't have enough data blablabla". 

 

I'd rather confer with the local witchdoctor on future events tbh. 

Sounds about right.

 

Like I said, the really infuriating part of it is then people use that as an excuse to tar researchers in the harder sciences with the same "expert" brush.

[Webbo]

Why it's time to end EU free movement

Vince Cable makes the liberal case for immigration controls.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/01/why-its-time-end-eu-free-movement

[Guest]

Perhaps a bigger font might get the point across Webbo?

[Webbo]

Just now, Emilio Lestavez said:

Perhaps a bigger font might get the point across Webbo?

I just copied and pasted.

[Barky]

1 hour ago, GazzinderFox said:

Top economist says the profession is 'in crisis' after getting the post brexit vote economy predictions totally wrong. This is after utterly missing the financial crisis. 

 

Can somebody remind me, when Boris Johnson's economy predictions are more accurate than this lot, what are these 'experts' for again?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38525924    

He doesn't say that about brexit at all. He's talking about them not seeing the 2008 crisis coming, which to be fair isn't that surprising given it all started with the behaviour of private banks.

 

We'll see if they're right on brexit in time. What we know so far is that our currency has been utterly annihilated and that people in general have so far brushed it off. Will they still be brushing it off in a year when petrol is at £2 per litre we'll have to see.

[Webbo]

3 minutes ago, Barky said:

He doesn't say that about brexit at all. He's talking about them not seeing the 2008 crisis coming, which to be fair isn't that surprising given it all started with the behaviour of private banks.

 

We'll see if they're right on brexit in time. What we know so far is that our currency has been utterly annihilated and that people in general have so far brushed it off. Will they still be brushing it off in a year when petrol is at £2 per litre we'll have to see.

Quote

 

Asked whether there had been the economic "hurricane" forecast after the Brexit vote, Mr Haldane quipped: "It's been very windy in Spain."

But he told the audience at the Institute for Government: "It's true, again, fair cop. We had foreseen a sharper slowdown in the economy than has happened, in common with almost every other mainstream macro-forecaster."

 

 

[GazzinderFox]

1 minute ago, Barky said:

He doesn't say that about brexit at all. He's talking about them not seeing the 2008 crisis coming, which to be fair isn't that surprising given it all started with the behaviour of private banks.

 

We'll see if they're right on brexit in time. What we know so far is that our currency has been utterly annihilated and that people in general have so far brushed it off. Will they still be brushing it off in a year when petrol is at £2 per litre we'll have to see.

Yes he does, read the article. He is referring to the performance of the economy directly after the vote so yes we do know they got it wrong.

 

Also £2 per litre next year because of brexit? Get a life mate.

[Barky]

9 minutes ago, Webbo said:

 

That's an afterthought. He said the profession was in crisis because of 2008, not because of brexit. I'm sure if they knew we'd still have no clue about what brexit is going to look like nearly a year after the vote they'd have made different predictions.

[GazzinderFox]

1 minute ago, Barky said:

That's an afterthought. He said the profession was in crisis because of 2008, not because of brexit. I'm sure if they knew we'd still have no clue about what brexit is going to look like nearly a year after the vote they'd have made different predictions.

Wow they really are a shambles if they have been in crisis for 8 years but only just realised it...

[Barky]

10 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

Yes he does, read the article. He is referring to the performance of the economy directly after the vote so yes we do know they got it wrong.

 

Also £2 per litre next year because of brexit? Get a life mate.

The pound has fallen 20% so that's a 20% increase directly attributable to brexit that will come through this year. On top of that Opec are cutting production so we'll probably see oil back at peak levels later in the year. I'll stick my neck on the line and say unless taxes are reduced we'll be driving home for christmas using £1.80per litre petrol this year. £2 is a real possibility.

[GazzinderFox]

Just now, Barky said:

The pound has fallen 20% so that's a 20% increase directly attributable to brexit that will come through this year. On top of that Opec are cutting production so we'll probably see oil back at peak levels later in the year. I'll stick my neck on the line and say unless taxes are reduced we'll be driving home for christmas using £1.80per litre petrol this year. £2 is a real possibility.

And opec cutting production has what to do with brexit? Calm down we're going to be OK!

[Alf Bentley]

31 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Why it's time to end EU free movement

Vince Cable makes the liberal case for immigration controls.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/01/why-its-time-end-eu-free-movement

 

Good article. I hope Cable returns to parliament some time as he's one of our more thoughtful politicians.

 

Remainers and Lefties need to address this issue. Virtue-signalling opposition to racism isn't enough.

 

Of course, other factors have increased concerns over free movement: stagnant incomes, job insecurity, lack of cash for public services, shortage of affordable housing. Large-scale immigration would be less of a concern without those factors - but it would still be a concern to some extent.

 

Measures to provide extra public-service cash for high-immigration, low-income areas would help. Likewise, more action to counteract low pay and to prevent employers recruiting foreign labour en masse. But there would still be an issue - and careful controls on the free movement of labour probably has to be part of that. I'm not optimistic that it would quell concerns about immigration, unless there are also improvements to income security, real incomes, affordable housing and public services. Likewise, I'm not optimistic that we'll be able to negotiate significant free movement without leaving the Single Market....but we need to try, at least.

[SMX11]

1 hour ago, GazzinderFox said:

Top economist says the profession is 'in crisis' after getting the post brexit vote economy predictions totally wrong. This is after utterly missing the financial crisis. 

 

Can somebody remind me, when Boris Johnson's economy predictions are more accurate than this lot, what are these 'experts' for again?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38525924    

A lot of economists could see the financial crises coming but they are the ones that are derided and shunned because they don't buy the mathematical/econometric approach which is the standard of Neo-Keynesian and Monetarist technocrats who think the economy is some mathematical equation that can be solved by manipulating certain aggregates. 

[GazzinderFox]

3 minutes ago, SMX11 said:

A lot of economists could see the financial crises coming but they are the ones that are derided and shunned because they don't buy the mathematical/econometric approach which is the standard of Neo-Keynesian and Monetarist technocrats who think the economy is some mathematical equation that can be solved by manipulating certain aggregates. 

Robert Peston correctly predicted it on the BBC if memory serves, so it's not like nobody was saying it could happen. It wasn't as though it was an unbelievable scenario, most knew they were up to their eyeballs in debt, it just seemed that establishment economists didn't want to believe it could happen and warn people as they should have.

 

If there's a more pertinent example of a collective profession burying their heads in the sand I'm struggling to think of one.

[SMX11]

3 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

Robert Peston correctly predicted it on the BBC if memory serves, so it's not like nobody was saying it could happen. It wasn't as though it was an unbelievable scenario, most knew they were up to their eyeballs in debt, it just seemed that establishment economists didn't want to believe it could happen and warn people as they should have.

 

If there's a more pertinent example of a collective profession burying their heads in the sand I'm struggling to think of one.

Agreed, I think it could have been the case of them believing their own hype and that they can control an economy with interest rates etc. and that if they come and said gloomy things it would perhaps hasten the demise.  

 

I think you also have to consider that they may be coerced by politicians and some probably think differently privately to what they say in public. Mervyn King is a good example, once out of the political sphere he comes and says a load of things bashing the current system but when he was the status quo he would resemble the current lot.  

[Webbo]

34 minutes ago, Alf Bentley said:

 

Good article. I hope Cable returns to parliament some time as he's one of our more thoughtful politicians.

 

Remainers and Lefties need to address this issue. Virtue-signalling opposition to racism isn't enough.

 

Of course, other factors have increased concerns over free movement: stagnant incomes, job insecurity, lack of cash for public services, shortage of affordable housing. Large-scale immigration would be less of a concern without those factors - but it would still be a concern to some extent.

 

Measures to provide extra public-service cash for high-immigration, low-income areas would help. Likewise, more action to counteract low pay and to prevent employers recruiting foreign labour en masse. But there would still be an issue - and careful controls on the free movement of labour probably has to be part of that. I'm not optimistic that it would quell concerns about immigration, unless there are also improvements to income security, real incomes, affordable housing and public services. Likewise, I'm not optimistic that we'll be able to negotiate significant free movement without leaving the Single Market....but we need to try, at least.

He kinda said what I'd been saying all along.

 

Quote

The economics are ambiguous. Seen globally, more migration is undeniably a positive. People moving from high unemployment, low productivity countries to areas of labour scarcity and higher productivity produce economic gains. But the benefits accrue mainly to migrants themselves (and business owners). For the receiving country, the benefits are less obvious: a bigger economy but not necessarily a richer one. Immigrants may be more productive than indigenous workers but they have dependents too. They are usually young people and therefore likely to be more flexible, more mobile and more likely to work contributing more in tax than they take out in benefits and subsidised services. But they grow older so these benefits are non-recurring.

 

[Barky]

49 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

And opec cutting production has what to do with brexit? Calm down we're going to be OK!

Nothing. I didn't say it did have anything to do with it. But it will steadily increase prices which are already steadily increasing due to brexit. Even if the price of oil stays around its previous peak and doesn't surpass it the brexit effect of killing the pound will push petrol prices up to about £1.70. We could easily see £2+. I'm calm about this for now but the effects would be pretty drastic for many.

[davieG]

The 'richer' EU countries pulling in the skilled people from the 'poorer' countries doesn't strike me as something that should be encouraged.

 

It makes the richer counties lazy with regards to training and it means the poorer countries will take that much longer to equalise themselves with those richer countries.

 

This inequality I believe is one of the biggest obstacles to a thriving homogenised, politically and economical EU.  

 

Countries that do this should be forced to pay compensation to affected country whether in the EU or not.

 

Probably a Utopian scenario but....

[Webbo]

5 minutes ago, davieG said:

The 'richer' EU countries pulling in the skilled people from the 'poorer' countries doesn't strike me as something that should be encouraged.

 

It makes the richer counties lazy with regards to training and it means the poorer countries will take that much longer to equalise themselves with those richer countries.

 

This inequality I believe is one of the biggest obstacles to a thriving homogenised, politically and economical EU.  

 

Countries that do this should be forced to pay compensation to affected country whether in the EU or not.

 

Probably a Utopian scenario but....

To be fair we already pay a huge sum into the EU which is distributed amongst the poorer countries.  If you're saying to our tax payers that we should pay compensation to Poland because Polish immigrants are keeping down your wages that's just adding insult to injury.

[GazzinderFox]

4 minutes ago, Barky said:

Nothing. I didn't say it did have anything to do with it. But it will steadily increase prices which are already steadily increasing due to brexit. Even if the price of oil stays around its previous peak and doesn't surpass it the brexit effect of killing the pound will push petrol prices up to about £1.70. 

So you just tossed it into the brexit thread and hoped nobody would notice? Except you then go on to say it mainly will be due to brexit. I'm glad you agree that if petrol reaches £2 it won't be because of brexit. Or do you? I'm confused. I think you need to let this go.

[davieG]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

To be fair we already pay a huge some into the EU which is distributed amongst the poorer countries.  If you're saying to our tax payers that we should pay compensation to Poland because Polish immigrants are keeping down your wages that's just adding insult to injury.

Well I guess it's not a black and white situation but I was thinking more of the higher skilled workers like engineers and doctors etc that are not driving down wages.

 

The longer term effect would hopefully mean that Polish people wouldn't need to come here for a better standard of living as their economy would be boosted by not losing all their highly skilled in demand people.

[Barky]

Just now, GazzinderFox said:

So you just tossed it into the brexit thread and hoped nobody would notice? Except you then go on to say it mainly will be due to brexit. I'm glad you agree that if petrol reaches £2 it won't be because of brexit. Or do you? I'm confused. I think you need to let this go.

Seriously?

 

We import oil so the 20% fall in the pound caused by brexit adds 20% to the price.

 

Seperately, Opec have agreed to cut production which will push prices up further.

 

Those two *seperate* issues, one of which is directly attributable to brexit, the other not, will *combine* to push prices up to record levels. 

[Carl the Llama]

2 minutes ago, GazzinderFox said:

So you just tossed it into the brexit thread and hoped nobody would notice? Except you then go on to say it mainly will be due to brexit. I'm glad you agree that if petrol reaches £2 it won't be because of brexit. Or do you? I'm confused. I think you need to let this go.

He's being quite clear that they are separate factors which combine to affect the same target (ie. Oil prices).  You're basically saying that there's no need to worry if you don't have enough eggs for your cake recipe since you already have enough flour and eggs have nothing to do with flour.