Politics Thread (encompassing Brexit) - 21 June 2017 onwards

[Webbo]

4 minutes ago, toddybad said:

No not really.

I think if we'd just got on, set out our proton and discussed the areas of disagreement over the Brexit bill we'd already be having trade talks.

We seem intent on making the process as difficult as possible.

Whilst the EU could have agreed to discuss divorce and trade together they did tell us months and months ago they wouldn't so surely you just get on with it. David Davis is an idiot.

You talk about the 13% (or 43% in.reality) dropping a little as if it is nothing. 1% is worth £16billion, or one third of the total entire deficit that you are supposedly so concerned about.

A small percentage of 13%. We've all admitted there would be a short term hit to the economy, as there will be to the EU. The difference is we can plough our own furrow, buy cheaper food, make FTA with the growing parts of the world economy, make regulations that suit us. They'll still be stuck in their, now smaller thanks to us leaving, single market.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Strokes said:

We can always borrow more and hit the rich with a mansion tax to cover that though, right?

 

Understanding the size of the economy and deficit should actually make you see that growth is a much more effective method of getting rid of the deficit than cuts. Simply increasing growth by just under 1% per year would wipe out the deficit in three years. Instead the Tories are cutting and removing money from the economy and stifling growth.  Spending increases the money available within the economy and therefore grows it. Whilst there is a limit to how far you'd want to go, the Tories have cut to the bone and spending is inevitable to get public services back in shape. 

[Fox Ulike]

1 minute ago, Strokes said:

Fivers and fifties?

I've never seen a fifty pound note mate.

 

1 minute ago, Strokes said:

Thats 43% of exports not the economy.

Oh OK. What does 13% of our economy mean?

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Webbo said:

A small percentage of 13%. We've all admitted there would be a short term hit to the economy, as there will be to the EU. The difference is we can plough our own furrow, buy cheaper food, make FTA with the growing parts of the world economy, make regulations that suit us. They'll still be stuck in their, now smaller thanks to us leaving, single market.

13% is worth over £200 billion. Where are you going to find cost savings worth over £200 billion? Regulations will still have to be in line with the FTA that we agree also. India and Australia both wanted to talk trade and also talk freeing up migration. Yes, poor EU countries, stuck in the most successful political and trade club in history.

[Innovindil]

2 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

I've never seen a fifty pound note mate.

 

Oh OK. What does 13% of our economy mean?

If you don't know what the economy is I'm fairly certain Google would tell you. 

[Webbo]

Just now, toddybad said:

13% is worth over £200 billion. Where are you going to find cost savings worth over £200 billion? Regulations will still have to be in line with the FTA that we agree also. India and Australia both wanted to talk trade and also talk freeing up migration. Yes, poor EU countries, stuck in the most successful political and trade club in history.

We'll still import/export with the EU. It might drop a bit but it won't vanish totally.

 

If it's such a successful club how come it's declining as a share of world trade?

[Fox Ulike]

2 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

If you don't know what the economy is I'm fairly certain Google would tell you. 

Bit rude.

 

So, only 13% of all UK economic transactions are an export to the EU? But it's 44% of our total exports.

 

So when we talk about access to the single market etc, we're only actually talking about 13% of our economy?

 

Got it. I think.

 

So how the hell do Rabobank reckon  that we're going to lose 18% of GDP by 2030?

 

 

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, Fox Ulike said:

Bit rude.

 

So, only 13% of all UK economic transactions are an export to the EU? But it's 44% of our total exports.

 

So when we talk about access to the single market etc, we're only actually talking about 13% of our economy?

 

Got it. I think.

 

So how the hell do Rabobank reckon  that we're going to lose 18% of GDP by 2030?

 

 

Because they're talking out their arses? 

 

Haven't we all learned by now that the experts are about as accurate as your horoscope? Nobody can say with any certainty what will happen post Brexit, not even me. I just think we have plenty of reasons not to be afraid. 

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Webbo said:

We'll still import/export with the EU. It might drop a bit but it won't vanish totally.

 

If it's such a successful club how come it's declining as a share of world trade?

Because there are more highly developed countries in the world so the overall figure is getting bigger. I guarantee the likes of Brazil would love to be part of the EU.

[Fox Ulike]

2 minutes ago, Webbo said:

Because they're talking out their arses? 

 

Haven't we all learned by now that the experts are about as accurate as your horoscope? Nobody can say with any certainty what will happen post Brexit, not even me. I just think we have plenty of reasons not to be afraid. 

 

Well. I don't believe that.  I think all their assumptions were of a hard brexit, and probably of a slow but steady decline of 1 or 2% per year between now and 2030.

 

But having read GTF's summary of negotiations it looks like we're not planning to go down that road. Things seem to be better advanced than the media are reporting.

 

And so Yes, I am feeling less afraid of Brexit right now than I was this morning...

 

It's just a bad idea that's gonna fcuk us up a bit; rather than totally destroy us. Hooray! ;p

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Fox Ulike said:

Bit rude.

 

So, only 13% of all UK economic transactions are an export to the EU? But it's 44% of our total exports.

 

So when we talk about access to the single market etc, we're only actually talking about 13% of our economy?

 

Got it. I think.

 

So how the hell do Rabobank reckon  that we're going to lose 18% of GDP by 2030?

 

 

 

Because it doesn't only affect imports and exports. 

It is saying that in all likelihood we will see less growth. What they are saying is that in the EU we would grow by x amount and our economy would be worth y. Outside the EU growth will be a figure smaller than x and so our economy will be worth 18% less than y. 

It's the difference between standing still or growing at a bit over 1% a year. That might not sound like much but it's potentially worth several hundred billion pounds in total. 

[Webbo]

34 minutes ago, toddybad said:

 

Because it doesn't only affect imports and exports. 

It is saying that in all likelihood we will see less growth. What they are saying is that in the EU we would grow by x amount and our economy would be worth y. Outside the EU growth will be a figure smaller than x and so our economy will be worth 18% less than y. 

It's the difference between standing still or growing at a bit over 1% a year. That might not sound like much but it's potentially worth several hundred billion pounds in total. 

We're not leaving until 2019 at least so that's 18% divided by 11 years. That's more than 1.6% per year, about the current predicted growth rate. So they're saying we'll have virtually zero growth for more than a decade. Not even the most extreme remainer believes that, surely?

[David Guiza]

It's the distinct lack of planning and, to some respect, belief in Brexit that worries me. It's becoming more and more evident with every passing week that that there was next to no plan as to what would happen should leave win, other than triggering Article 50 and taking it from there. Remain made no real claims as to why staying would be better, other slamming Brexit and the leave campaign has seemingly been focused around hope rather that expectation or strategy; the whole thing is just a shambles currently.

 

Interesting I saw a leave voter state use the analogy of purchasing a new car in terms of trade deals and the like; he said that you don't just rush to buy any old car because it's available, you wait until you find the right car for you. However, much like May and her teams' current negotiations, surely the point is that you don't sell your car without a viable alternative in place, rather than just hoping a better ones comes along.

 

I voted remain for a number of reasons ranging from my studies in European Union and Human Rights Law to a lack of faith in Brexit; however I am not completely against Brexit, in fact I would love to see it work for our benefit - it would be vindictive and naive to suggest otherwise. I just cannot see the logic in so many of the decisions.  

Edited 13 October 2017 by David Guiza

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, Webbo said:

We're not leaving until 2019 at least so that's 18% divided by 11 years. That's more than 1.6% per year, about the current predicted growth rate. So they're saying we'll have virtually zero growth for more than a decade. Not even the most extreme remainer believes that, surely?

Growth is compounded so it'll be less than 11%/18. It is saying that amount of growth LESS than the no deal option. So if we have annual 1% growth with no deal it would be 2.5% with a deal. That is a huge huge huge difference in available finance. It is worth far far more than any cuts the Tories could impose. 

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, toddybad said:

Growth is compounded so it'll be less than 11%/18. It is saying that amount of growth LESS than the no deal option. So if we have annual 1% growth with no deal it would be 2.5% with a deal. That is a huge huge huge difference in available finance. It is worth far far more than any cuts the Tories could impose. 

Only if you believe it.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, David Guiza said:

It's the distinct lack of planning and, to some respect, belief in Brexit that worries me. It's becoming more and more evident with every passing week that that there was next to plan as to what would happen should leave win, other than triggering Article 50 and taking it from there. Remain made no real claims as to why staying would be better, other slamming Brexit and the leave campaign has seemingly been focused around hope rather that expectation or strategy; the whole thing is just a shambles currently.

 

Interesting I saw a leave voter state use the analogy of purchasing a new car in terms of trade deals and the like; he said that you don't just rush to buy any old car because it's available, you wait until you find the right car for you. However, much like May and her teams' current negotiations, surely the point is that you don't sell your car without a viable alternative in place, rather than just hoping a better ones comes along.

 

I voted remain for a number of reasons ranging from my studies in European Union and Human Rights Law to a lack of faith in Brexit; however I am not completely against Brexit, in fact I would love to see it work for our benefit - it would be vindictive and naive to suggest otherwise. I just cannot see the logic in so many of the decisions.  

Nail. On. Head.

 

We all know the government made no plans whatsoever re a leave vote. But those that pushed us to leave - Farage, Boris, Davis and gove etc we're duty bound to at least have some plan for if they won. But they didn't. And now they appear to new the chief conspirators in ensuring the negotiations go as badly as possible.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

Only if you believe it.

Which is fine but honestly I'm not sure why you believe everything you were told by the leave campaign but refuse to believe any studies etc that show the risks involved.  I know  Gove had had enough of experts but at some point you do need some expertise to make the right decisions. 

[Webbo]

1 minute ago, toddybad said:

Which is fine but honestly I'm not sure why you believe everything you were told by the leave campaign but refuse to believe any studies etc that show the risks involved.  I know  Gove had had enough of experts but at some point you do need some expertise to make the right decisions. 

How much of the doomsaying so far has proven right?

[lifted*fox]

52 minutes ago, Webbo said:

How much of the doomsaying so far has proven right?

 

Very little because **** all has changed at this point in time. That's not a valid argument at all. 

[Webbo]

9 minutes ago, lifted*fox said:

 

Very little because **** all has changed at this point in time. That's not a valid argument at all. 

We were told it would start immediately.

[lifted*fox]

Just now, Webbo said:

We were told it would start immediately.

 

[Webbo]

Just now, lifted*fox said:

 

What? Unemployment has going to go up by 500,000, we'd have an immediate recession, a punishment budget, banks where going to move abroad. Which of those has happened?

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Webbo said:

What? Unemployment has going to go up by 500,000, we'd have an immediate recession, a punishment budget, banks where going to move abroad. Which of those has happened?

Tbf banks are actively looking to hive off some parts of their business into the EU but nowhere near as much as threatened so far. Sterling nosedive overnight which has affected inflation and living standards. The government is having to set aside reserves in.case of no deal. Not what project fear said it's true.

 

But then Davis said leaving and agreeing a deal would be easy. Boris talked about huge sums for the nhs. That was all nonsense too. 

 

So at this point you have a point in saying the bad didn't happen but should also be more incredulous than you are about the prospects of the leave campaign's expectations coming true either.

[Strokes]

1 minute ago, toddybad said:

Tbf banks are actively looking to hive off some parts of their business into the EU but nowhere near as much as threatened so far. Sterling nosedive overnight which has affected inflation and living standards. The government is having to set aside reserves in.case of no deal. Not what project fear said it's true.

 

But then Davis said leaving and agreeing a deal would be easy. Boris talked about huge sums for the nhs. That was all nonsense too. 

 

So at this point you have a point in saying the bad didn't happen but should also be more incredulous than you are about the prospects of the leave campaign's expectations coming true either.

It wasn’t that long ago, you were talking about a higher inflation being a positive thing.

[Webbo]

5 minutes ago, toddybad said:

Tbf banks are actively looking to hive off some parts of their business into the EU but nowhere near as much as threatened so far. Sterling nosedive overnight which has affected inflation and living standards. The government is having to set aside reserves in.case of no deal. Not what project fear said it's true.

 

But then Davis said leaving and agreeing a deal would be easy. Boris talked about huge sums for the nhs. That was all nonsense too. 

 

So at this point you have a point in saying the bad didn't happen but should also be more incredulous than you are about the prospects of the leave campaign's expectations coming true either.

The nosedive in the £ is partly due to the cut in interest rates which was an over reaction imo. As for inflation it's lower than in 2010 while we were well in the EU. As for the rest, as remainers keep reminding us, we haven't left yet.