fuchsntf Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 (edited) £60-120 bn, to leave......no small change. How much over the next 10-25-50yrs, would we........... lose or save if we.... 1) Remain 2) Brexit The electorate should be informed, where are the real financial experts!!! Honest fact and prognose.! Losses and gains, put forward by a) true brexiter b) true remainer..panal one can say its too late, but the electorate and small businesses, farmers and traders will have somethings to work on, to understand. Our major problem, is the trust has gone, therefore belief. The use of the words Financial experts, in fact any use of giving and receiving title "expert" as become nonsensical. If this embarassing period proves one thing, is that the bumbling has been more the fault of UK incompetent deceitful politicians, than anything the EU-union as thrown at us. Yes I leant to the remain side, being I now live in Germany/overseas for longer than I lived in the land of my birth, but for whatever the individual reasons the electorate decided on Brexit. So now the politicians have c to sort out their platform and their action to realise the want of the people. Its a shame, at present incompetence, and lack of political understanding on home front desires and exit needs are being shambolically represented. The electorate gave the govnt, the mandate to leave, not one top politician or group has put themselves forward to show they understand the peoples of UK, fears, reasons of why. The remainers(politicians), should of dropped their post disapointments and joined together , to get that descision to work to their country's advantage.Cut out the squabbling, discuss because we live in a democracy, , the paths, and the means also oppose , but sometimes though you have to comprimise and support , or the electorate loses a voice of balanced opinion. If you cant work with the idea of Brexit, (I cant) then stay in the background or resign, like some have already done. Its the remainers arguments and opinions, that will still need to be heard when we go alone forward, depending how they see themselves representing their constituents, balance, not whining over whats gone ,will be needed. IE: fighting for controlled /organised/common sense immigration rulings, which is not seen or cant be argued has closet racism....like it or not, the residents through Europe see it as a major issue, including older generation immigrants. Expectations can be a friend or enemy , depending on perception, but more the UK younger generation needs some motivation and up front honesty, or their political interest will die before its even taken a chance to take its 1st breath. Edited 12 November 2017 by fuchsntf
Guest Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 Davis confirming that a true no deal is unthinkable. Appearing on BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show, Gove said he did not believe it was time to walk away from the talks and he would not seek to stop May if she decided to hand over extra cash to Brussels to secure a good exit deal. “I wouldn’t block the prime minister in doing what she believed was right,” he said. May and Brexit secretary David Davis should be “given the flexibility” they need to secure a good deal, Gove said. Speaking on Sunday with Niall Paterson on Sky News, Davis said it would be “very expensive” for the UK if it sought to extend negotiations by 12 months by pausing the article 50 process, adding it would require unanimity from the EU27 and create extra uncertainty for businesses. He dismissed the suggestion that a no-deal scenario was “more probable than it’s ever been before”, reiterating this was not the government’s aim, and said the UK would be aware if that was what was coming. Davis said: “If we’re at this point with no deal, we’ll know it’s coming for a while and we’ll take measures [to secure] a bare bones deal or a minimalist deal. “There will not be a circumstance where aircraft won’t fly ... there will not be those sorts of failures that people are fearing. We’ll make sure that doesn’t happen.”
Guest Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 5 minutes ago, fuchsntf said: £60-120 bn, to leave......no small change. How much over the next 10-25-50yrs, would we........... lose or save if we.... 1) Remain 2) Brexit The electorate should be informed, where are the real financial experts!!! Honest fact and prognose.! Losses and gains, put forward by a) true brexiter b) true remainer..panal one can say its too late, but the electorate and small businesses, farmers and traders will have somethings to work on, to understand. Our major problem, is the trust has gone, therefore belief. The use of the words Financial experts, in fact any use of giving and receiving title "expert" as become nonsensical. If this embarassing period proves one thing, is that the bumbling has been more the fault of UK incompetent deceitful politicians, than anything the EU-union as thrown at us. Yes I leant to the remain side, being I now live in Germany/overseas for longer than I lived in the land of my birth, but for whatever the individual reasons the electorate decided on Brexit. So now the politicians have c to sort out their platform and their action to realise the want of the people. Its a shame, at present incompetence, and lack of political understanding on home front desires and exit needs are being shambolically represented. The electorate gave the govnt, the mandate to leave, not one top politician or group has put themselves forward to show they understand the peoples of UK, fears, reasons of why. The remainers(politicians), should of dropped their post disapointments and joined together , to get that descision to work to their country's advantage.Cut out the squabbling, discuss because we live in a democracy, , the paths, and the means also oppose , but sometimes though you have to comprimise and support , or the electorate loses a voice of balanced opinion. If you cant work with the idea of Brexit, (I cant) then stay in the background or resign, like some have already done. Its the remainers arguments and opinions, that will still need to be heard when we go alone forward, depending how they see themselves representing their constituents, balance, not whining over whats gone ,will be needed. IE: fighting for controlled /organised/common sense immigration rulings, which is not seen or cant be argued has closet racism....like it or not, the residents through Europe see it as a major issue, including older generation immigrants. Expectations can be a friend or enemy , depending on perception, but more the UK younger generation needs some motivation and up front honesty, or their political interest will die before its even taken a chance to take its 1st breath. Trouble is it's very difficult as a remainer to put your heart into making this work when the leavers want the hardest possible fall. If it's a soft exit then that's the only possible path to uniting the nation again. You talk about hard facts about costs but ultimately the experts across the world all agree it will be a hugely costly mistake. Just because Osborne's figures for immediately after the vote didn't add up doesn't mean every other world economic body is wrong. They're the only ones who could make any realistic estimate. At worst they're biased experts but many worldwide commentators don't have such obvious reasons for bias. Unfortunately, leave voters have decided to take a punt based on the opinions of biased non experts.
Webbo Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 36 minutes ago, fuchsntf said: £60-120 bn, to leave......no small change. How much over the next 10-25-50yrs, would we........... lose or save if we.... 1) Remain 2) Brexit The electorate should be informed, where are the real financial experts!!! Honest fact and prognose.! Losses and gains, put forward by a) true brexiter b) true remainer..panal one can say its too late, but the electorate and small businesses, farmers and traders will have somethings to work on, to understand. Our major problem, is the trust has gone, therefore belief. The use of the words Financial experts, in fact any use of giving and receiving title "expert" as become nonsensical. If this embarassing period proves one thing, is that the bumbling has been more the fault of UK incompetent deceitful politicians, than anything the EU-union as thrown at us. Yes I leant to the remain side, being I now live in Germany/overseas for longer than I lived in the land of my birth, but for whatever the individual reasons the electorate decided on Brexit. So now the politicians have c to sort out their platform and their action to realise the want of the people. Its a shame, at present incompetence, and lack of political understanding on home front desires and exit needs are being shambolically represented. The electorate gave the govnt, the mandate to leave, not one top politician or group has put themselves forward to show they understand the peoples of UK, fears, reasons of why. The remainers(politicians), should of dropped their post disapointments and joined together , to get that descision to work to their country's advantage.Cut out the squabbling, discuss because we live in a democracy, , the paths, and the means also oppose , but sometimes though you have to comprimise and support , or the electorate loses a voice of balanced opinion. If you cant work with the idea of Brexit, (I cant) then stay in the background or resign, like some have already done. Its the remainers arguments and opinions, that will still need to be heard when we go alone forward, depending how they see themselves representing their constituents, balance, not whining over whats gone ,will be needed. IE: fighting for controlled /organised/common sense immigration rulings, which is not seen or cant be argued has closet racism....like it or not, the residents through Europe see it as a major issue, including older generation immigrants. Expectations can be a friend or enemy , depending on perception, but more the UK younger generation needs some motivation and up front honesty, or their political interest will die before its even taken a chance to take its 1st breath. I've not heard anyone mention £120 billion and I doubt we'll agree to £60 billion, if we did it'd only be 6 years contributions, we'd have to pay it if we stayed in. The govt has tried to meet the EU half way only to be rebuffed everytime. It's a game of poker to see who blinks first. Personally I think the only way we'll get a deal is to walk away. They need our money and there are 100s of thousands of jobs on the continent that depend on trade with us.
Rogstanley Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 25 minutes ago, Webbo said: I've not heard anyone mention £120 billion and I doubt we'll agree to £60 billion, if we did it'd only be 6 years contributions, we'd have to pay it if we stayed in. The govt has tried to meet the EU half way only to be rebuffed everytime. It's a game of poker to see who blinks first. Personally I think the only way we'll get a deal is to walk away. They need our money and there are 100s of thousands of jobs on the continent that depend on trade with us. Why would the people we are negotiating with care about that?
Webbo Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 5 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: Why would the people we are negotiating with care about that? The commission don't, they don't face re election. The national govts should.
Rogstanley Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 9 minutes ago, Webbo said: The commission don't, they don't face re election. The national govts should. On a national level trade with the UK is relatively small. A country like Italy does a massive amount more trade with the rest of the EU than it does with the UK. If EU leaders don’t care because they don’t face re-election and because their priority is keeping the EU together, and national leaders aren’t that bothered because they’d rather support the EU that they remain part of rather than a relatively insignificant pariah state then I can’t see you can justify saying anybody “needs” us for anything, really.
Webbo Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 26 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: On a national level trade with the UK is relatively small. A country like Italy does a massive amount more trade with the rest of the EU than it does with the UK. If EU leaders don’t care because they don’t face re-election and because their priority is keeping the EU together, and national leaders aren’t that bothered because they’d rather support the EU that they remain part of rather than a relatively insignificant pariah state then I can’t see you can justify saying anybody “needs” us for anything, really. Most countries in the EU have a trade surplus with us, if you don't think they're bothered about trade disruption with us you're kidding yourself.
Rogstanley Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 5 minutes ago, Webbo said: Most countries in the EU have a trade surplus with us, if you don't think they're bothered about trade disruption with us you're kidding yourself. I picked Italy at random and have just looked into their trade stats. They trade more with Russia than they do with us and only slightly more with us than they do with Kazakhsan. We're a tiny part of their overall trade. They're not exactly going to be crying into their pasta if a insignificant of their trade has tariffs or whatever. Why is anyone of influence in Italy going to stick their head above the parapet on behalf when it matters so little to them?
Webbo Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 4 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: I picked Italy at random and have just looked into their trade stats. They trade more with Russia than they do with us and only slightly more with us than they do with Kazakhsan. We're a tiny part of their overall trade. They're not exactly going to be crying into their pasta if a insignificant of their trade has tariffs or whatever. Why is anyone of influence in Italy going to stick their head above the parapet on behalf when it matters so little to them? Even if we did a tiny bit of trade with them, which isn't true, do you think the Italian economy came just turn their backs on any amount of trade?
Webbo Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 The top export destinations of Italy are Germany ($58.3B), France ($48.6B), the United States ($40.9B), the United Kingdom ($24.9B) and Spain ($23.2B). The top import origins are Germany ($67.2B), France ($35.7B), China ($26.4B), Spain ($22.5B) and Belgium ($20.8B). https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/ita/
Guest Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 3 minutes ago, Webbo said: Even if we did a tiny bit of trade with them, which isn't true, do you think the Italian economy came just turn their backs on any amount of trade? Using this line of thinking, why would the uk leave a union that it has massive % of trade with?
Guest Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 1 hour ago, Webbo said: I've not heard anyone mention £120 billion and I doubt we'll agree to £60 billion, if we did it'd only be 6 years contributions, we'd have to pay it if we stayed in. The govt has tried to meet the EU half way only to be rebuffed everytime. It's a game of poker to see who blinks first. Personally I think the only way we'll get a deal is to walk away. They need our money and there are 100s of thousands of jobs on the continent that depend on trade with us. We'll pay, of that I've no doubt whatsoever.
Webbo Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 1 minute ago, toddybad said: We'll pay, of that I've no doubt whatsoever. Not if they don't give us a deal. Quote Using this line of thinking, why would the uk leave a union that it has massive % of trade with? Because the union has become more than trade and it's not what most of us want.
Rogstanley Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 2 minutes ago, Webbo said: The top export destinations of Italy are Germany ($58.3B), France ($48.6B), the United States ($40.9B), the United Kingdom ($24.9B) and Spain ($23.2B). The top import origins are Germany ($67.2B), France ($35.7B), China ($26.4B), Spain ($22.5B) and Belgium ($20.8B). https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/ita/ Exactly. We make up a small percentage of their exports and a tiny percentage of their imports. They'll still be able to trade with us, it'll just be a little bit more expensive. No great harm to them as 98% of their trade will be unaffected. Why would anybody of influence in Italy want to go out of their way to stick up for a pariah state when it barely affects them? If you think they're going to be crying into their Bolognese over a small cost increase on a tiny part of their trade then you're living in cloud cuckoo land.
Strokes Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 3 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: I picked Italy at random and have just looked into their trade stats. They trade more with Russia than they do with us and only slightly more with us than they do with Kazakhsan. We're a tiny part of their overall trade. They're not exactly going to be crying into their pasta if a insignificant of their trade has tariffs or whatever. Why is anyone of influence in Italy going to stick their head above the parapet on behalf when it matters so little to them? Belgium €34.7billion Netherlands €52 billion (2015) Germany €85 billion they will be concerned at the very least.
Webbo Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 Just now, Rogstanley said: Exactly. We make up a small percentage of their exports and a tiny percentage of their imports. They'll still be able to trade with us, it'll just be a little bit more expensive. No great harm to them as 98% of their trade will be unaffected. Why would anybody of influence in Italy want to go out of their way to stick up for a pariah state when it barely affects them? If you think they're going to be crying into their Bolognese over a small cost increase on a tiny part of their trade then you're living in cloud cuckoo land. We're their 4th highest export market $25 billion worth of trade and they're not bothered? If you say so.
Rogstanley Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 Just now, Strokes said: Belgium €34.7billion Netherlands €52 billion (2015) Germany €85 billion they will be concerned at the very least. These numbers mean nothing without context. If it's 1-2% of their overall trade they're not going to be that bothered.
Rogstanley Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Webbo said: We're their 4th highest export market $25 billion worth of trade and they're not bothered? If you say so. It's a tiny percentage of their overall trade. Nobody in Italy will be crying onto their mozzrella because a tiny part of their trade becomes a bit more expensive. They'll have taken more of a hit from the pound collapsing already. Do they care? Do you see pizzas covered in tears? No. Edited 12 November 2017 by Rogstanley
Strokes Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 Just now, Rogstanley said: These numbers mean nothing without context. If it's 1-2% of their overall trade they're not going to be that bothered. Belgium is about 9% They are bothered. I can’t be bothered to google the rest, as tariffs won’t really affect our sales because we will still be close to 2016 prices, due to the devaluation of the £.
Rogstanley Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 Just now, Strokes said: Belgium is about 9% They are bothered. I can’t be bothered to google the rest, as tariffs won’t really affect our sales because we will still be close to 2016 prices, due to the devaluation of the £. Curious example because the Belgian Prime Minister is on record aggressively demanding we are given no concessions whatsoever Amongst others https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.newindianexpress.com/world/2017/may/05/belgian-pm-interview-push-brexit-button-and-theresa-may-must-pay-1601428.amp
Strokes Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 2 minutes ago, Rogstanley said: Curious example because the Belgian Prime Minister is on record aggressively demanding we are given no concessions whatsoever Amongst others https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.newindianexpress.com/world/2017/may/05/belgian-pm-interview-push-brexit-button-and-theresa-may-must-pay-1601428.amp http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/872002/Brexit-news-Belgium-asks-EU-pump-more-cash-unemployment-fund depends what you read I guess.
Webbo Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 1 minute ago, Rogstanley said: It's a tiny percentage of their overall trade. Nobody in Italy will be crying onto their mozzrella because a tiny part of their trade becomes a bit more expensive. A tiny percentage? It's 5.5% of their exports? Obviously leaving with no deal will affect us but to pretend that it won't affect them is being ridiculous. 1
Rogstanley Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 6 minutes ago, Strokes said: http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/872002/Brexit-news-Belgium-asks-EU-pump-more-cash-unemployment-fund depends what you read I guess. Well no that's a shit tabloid spinning a story about him asking for more money into something about brexit whereas my link has the Belgian Prime Minister in his own words clearly and directly contradicting Webbo's claim that national leaders within the EU will stick up for us due to trade. If you lot on the right weren't so stubborn you'd see that for the debate ender that it is.
Strokes Posted 12 November 2017 Posted 12 November 2017 Just now, Rogstanley said: Well no that's a shit tabloid spinning a story about him asking for more money into something about brexit whereas my link has the Belgian Prime Minister in his own words clearly and directly contradicting Webbo's claim that national leaders within the EU will stick up for us due to trade. If you lot on the right weren't so stubborn you'd see that for the debate ender that it is. 1
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