Technology, Science and the Environment.

[blabyboy]

7 hours ago, leicsmac said:

A postscript to the above.

 

Over a billion people in India and Pakistan are currently experiencing extreme heat.

 

Quite apart from the strain that puts on electricity and medical resources, what happens in that area when the heat gets so extreme and regular that water becomes scarce and as a result crops cannot be grown?

 

What happens to that billion people then?

Many die. See Ethiopia circa1983.

Edited 11 May 2022 by blabyboy
miss-spell of Ethiopia

[blabyboy]

11 hours ago, leicsmac said:

This is true, however TBH given time this is exactly what will happen if we stay the present course...here's hoping that if we don't pull our heads out of our collective arses until then and when it does, there will still be enough time to mitigate the damage that will inevitably result. Damage that could have been prevented had we been more forward-thinking.

 

 

I'm sorry, but I'm not entirely sure what the meaning is here.

 

What this story means is there is  50/50 chance that the global average temperature increase is happening even faster than was suspected. That the temperature will increase above 1.5 degrees C seems to be a matter of fact, it's just a question of when. That it will also go much higher over the next few decades, with all the consequences that entails, is also likely a matter of fact - unless necessary action is taken.

I didn't get that from the BBC article at all. I read it as:

There is a 50/50 chance that the temperature will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial (19C) temperatures in the next 5 years and that it is most likely to happen in an El Nino year, and that it is likely to be a temporary high before dropping back again.

[grobyfox1990]

7 hours ago, leicsmac said:

A postscript to the above.

 

Over a billion people in India and Pakistan are currently experiencing extreme heat.

 

Quite apart from the strain that puts on electricity and medical resources, what happens in that area when the heat gets so extreme and regular that water becomes scarce and as a result crops cannot be grown?

 

What happens to that billion people then?

They die, obviously. The poor have been quietly dying en masse due to various injustices forever 

[leicsmac]

43 minutes ago, blabyboy said:

Many die. See Ethiopia circa1983.

 

15 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

They die, obviously. The poor have been quietly dying en masse due to various injustices forever 

Yep, that's right. And a significant proportion of those that remain are forced to migrate. And smart money is that they won't be welcomed with open arms, but with high walls and detention centres.

 

So, knowing this...perhaps there's an argument to, I don't know, work a bit more towards this not happening rather than accepting the death and displacement of hundreds of millions of people as an inevitability because...I don't know, status quo is inexorable or something like that?

 

There's also a practical argument as well as a moral one, given that such death and displacement would be on a scale never seen before and will have massive economical and social consequences of its own.

[leicsmac]

47 minutes ago, blabyboy said:

 

There is a 50/50 chance that the temperature will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial (19C) temperatures in the next 5 years and that it is most likely to happen in an El Nino year

That's true, and what is also true is that such an event is before most projections in terms of time, thus it happening faster than expected. I can supply supporting literature if needed.

 

48 minutes ago, blabyboy said:

that it is likely to be a temporary high before dropping back again.

If that is what is being gleaned from the BBC article then they've dropped a bollock in terms of the standard of their reportage. Given that the overall trend of global average temperatures is inexorably, rapidly upwards, I think it's a little naive to suggest that the temperature will drop back in any meaningful fashion.

 

They really should have stated that this could an outlier in part of an overall warming trend where though temperatures may drop from year to year, the overall pattern is upwards. That would be both true and pertinent.

[grobyfox1990]

16 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

 

Yep, that's right. And a significant proportion of those that remain are forced to migrate. And smart money is that they won't be welcomed with open arms, but with high walls and detention centres.

 

So, knowing this...perhaps there's an argument to, I don't know, work a bit more towards this not happening rather than accepting the death and displacement of hundreds of millions of people as an inevitability because...I don't know, status quo is inexorable or something like that?

 

There's also a practical argument as well as a moral one, given that such death and displacement would be on a scale never seen before and will have massive economical and social consequences of its own.

I agree with that, and when I occasionally drop into this section of the forum admire how you beat the same drum constantly, you are trying to influence change which is great. FYI buying property far away from the equator is as good a long term investment as you can make due to inhospitably in the v near future. Prices will sky rocket.

 

I don’t think the claims you make will spur anyone into action. There’ll be a few years of real economic pain (this cost of living crisis is just the warm up) in this country which will dominate the landscape. And as I said, the deaths will occur amongst the poor, which is too far away. 25k a day die due to hunger already, you can minimum treble/quadruple that. Nothing is done about it. This surely meets your ‘moral’ test. 

[leicsmac]

10 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

I agree with that, and when I occasionally drop into this section of the forum admire how you beat the same drum constantly, you are trying to influence change which is great. FYI buying property far away from the equator is as good a long term investment as you can make due to inhospitably in the v near future. Prices will sky rocket.

 

I don’t think the claims you make will spur anyone into action. There’ll be a few years of real economic pain (this cost of living crisis is just the warm up) in this country which will dominate the landscape. And as I said, the deaths will occur amongst the poor, which is too far away. 25k a day die due to hunger already, you can minimum treble/quadruple that. Nothing is done about it. This surely meets your ‘moral’ test. 

I think you could be right, but I also hope you're wrong because I think that the changes stuff like this will inflict will combine to be so far-reaching no one, not in the UK, Japan, Sweden or Antarctica will escape the knock-on effects, whether direct or indirect.

 

There's so many ways all of this can result in the most gross social upheaval, even in places where the food isn't that scarce.

 

And that is why I continue to beat the drum, as it were - this is a problem, that is heading our way in what is likely the living timeline of most contributors here, that has the power to change human civilisation more than anything short of an all-out nuclear exchange. And it is much, much more likely than that. People do not treat it with the seriousness that it deserves because it isn't immediately apparent, but that is a mistake and seeing as folks know it is a mistake, perhaps they could stop listening to the ape brain and actually use the rational mind they were born with.

 

Or not, and go the same way as the vast majority of advanced species. But that would be most sad.

[blabyboy]

4 hours ago, leicsmac said:

That's true, and what is also true is that such an event is before most projections in terms of time, thus it happening faster than expected. I can supply supporting literature if needed.

 

If that is what is being gleaned from the BBC article then they've dropped a bollock in terms of the standard of their reportage. Given that the overall trend of global average temperatures is inexorably, rapidly upwards, I think it's a little naive to suggest that the temperature will drop back in any meaningful fashion.

 

They really should have stated that this could an outlier in part of an overall warming trend where though temperatures may drop from year to year, the overall pattern is upwards. That would be both true and pertinent.

I'm a little confused to be honest. You initially linked the article in here, so did you not read it to the end? From what you've said they most definitely have dropped a bollock and you could contact the author to at least let them know. 

 

The MET researchers are very clear in stating that if it does go over 1.5 degrees then it will drop back afterwards.

 

I don't doubt you have plenty of material to back up your overall point, i was simply passing comment on that article itself.

 

[Zear0]

Event Horizon Telescope team having a press conference at 1pm tomorrow to go through their next major project. They've said it's Milky Way focused so most speculation is the focus is Sagittarius A*, which I recall they originally discounted due to the huge amount of dust in the way of the image. We'll see tomorrow I guess. Staggering work from this team with the picture of the M87 black hole being one of those discoveries I'll never forget. 

 

"Simultaneous press conferences will announce groundbreaking results from the Event Horizon Telescope collaboration, those will be synchronised at 13:00 Universal Time on May 12th, 2022.  Those will be held in collaboration with the USA National Science Foundation, the European Southern Observatory, the Joint ALMA Observatory, and other funding agencies and institutions.  These events will also be streamed online.  A selection of the events is listed, by alphabetical order of location (local times are provided)."

[leicsmac]

6 hours ago, blabyboy said:

I'm a little confused to be honest. You initially linked the article in here, so did you not read it to the end? From what you've said they most definitely have dropped a bollock and you could contact the author to at least let them know. 

 

The MET researchers are very clear in stating that if it does go over 1.5 degrees then it will drop back afterwards.

 

I don't doubt you have plenty of material to back up your overall point, i was simply passing comment on that article itself.

 

I see what you're saying, and yep, having taken note of it I'm definitely of the opinion that the Beeb could have done this article better, because it does seem that people can read it and think that the temp will go up and then down again and therefore "everything will be OK", rather than this being an outlier in part of a general overall upward trend which is not OK at all.

 

They needed to be clearer about the overall picture rather than just this one part of it.

 

I do appreciate the point of view on this btw - it shows how easily such things can be interpreted differently and how important accurate science communication is (and how difficult it can be).

[Zear0]

15 hours ago, Zear0 said:

Event Horizon Telescope team having a press conference at 1pm tomorrow to go through their next major project. They've said it's Milky Way focused so most speculation is the focus is Sagittarius A*, which I recall they originally discounted due to the huge amount of dust in the way of the image. We'll see tomorrow I guess. Staggering work from this team with the picture of the M87 black hole being one of those discoveries I'll never forget. 

 

"Simultaneous press conferences will announce groundbreaking results from the Event Horizon Telescope collaboration, those will be synchronised at 13:00 Universal Time on May 12th, 2022.  Those will be held in collaboration with the USA National Science Foundation, the European Southern Observatory, the Joint ALMA Observatory, and other funding agencies and institutions.  These events will also be streamed online.  A selection of the events is listed, by alphabetical order of location (local times are provided)."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61412463

 

Big... 

[The Bear]

I was hoping it'd be more than an orange donut again, but I guess technology limits that. 

[leicsmac]

38 minutes ago, Zear0 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61412463

 

Big... 

 

23 minutes ago, The Bear said:

I was hoping it'd be more than an orange donut again, but I guess technology limits that. 

What this does do, however, is prove beyond doubt that it is a supermassive black hole at the centre of our galaxy. We were reasonably sure, but this does make it certain.

 

Just need to find the Collector Base now...

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61242341

 

Grim.

[leicsmac]

 

Some of the chatting on the Covid Rollcall thread got me thinking about this.

 

How many times do you see people saying "well, I got through it!" and "it never did me any harm!" , especially in the last couple of years?

 

Survivorship bias is pretty common and difficult to overcome.

[Blarmy]

1 hour ago, leicsmac said:

 

Some of the chatting on the Covid Rollcall thread got me thinking about this.

 

How many times do you see people saying "well, I got through it!" and "it never did me any harm!" , especially in the last couple of years?

 

Survivorship bias is pretty common and difficult to overcome.

Similarly, I got sick and tired of people saying things like “it wasn’t that bad, the government overreacted”, and having to (try and) point out that it wasn’t “that bad” because the measures  that were taken made it not “that bad”.

 

I don’t understand how people can look at a relatively favourable outcome of an event and then claim, with a straight face, that too much care was taken to produce that outcome. It makes my head hurt. 

[leicsmac]

1 minute ago, Blarmy said:

Similarly, I got sick and tired of people saying things like “it wasn’t that bad, the government overreacted”, and having to (try and) point out that it wasn’t “that bad” because the measures  that were taken made it not “that bad”.

 

I don’t understand how people can look at a relatively favourable outcome of an event and then claim, with a straight face, that too much care was taken to produce that outcome. It makes my head hurt. 

Ah yes,  the Millennium Bug Fallacy.

 

Often those two go hand in hand, as you say.

[leicsmac]

 

It might sound like scaremongering...but this really is as bad as it could get. If we don't get things done.

[Innovindil]

49 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

 

It might sound like scaremongering...but this really is as bad as it could get. If we don't get things done.

Not scaremongering, just condescending imo. 

 

"my western friends". As if its just the west doing **** all about it and not every other muppet too, even the people it's already effecting badly. 

[leicsmac]

2 minutes ago, Innovindil said:

Not scaremongering, just condescending imo. 

 

"my western friends". As if its just the west doing **** all about it and not every other muppet too, even the people it's already effecting badly. 

I figured the tone was more "please help us and let's act together as we're the first into the fire and you'll be the last", but of course one's mileage may vary.

 

Of course, the Earth doesn't care one bit about which particular party does or doesn't do things, only if there is a global concerted response, so I think that is all rather a moot discussion anyway.

[leicsmac]

 

Not one for the Thalassophobes. but fascinating.

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60066015

 

"War is a great evil...through which sometimes, just sometimes, a little good arises."

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61494531

 

Cliff notes version on progress agreed at COP26: China are (somewhat) doing their job, India aren't doing theirs, and Brazil are just being Bolsanaro-run tits.

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-61723252

 

Sigh.

[SpacedX]

'Objects in Space'. The chances of James Webb Telescope getting struck by a 'space rock' are negligible. The region it is 'parked' - Lagrange L2, is gravitationally balanced but is an unstable location,to position something there for a period of time requires energy with “station keeping” thrusters to remain in place. For the same reason, meteroids, asteroids and other such space debris are unable to amass there. However, passing Micro-meteroids and dust are a possibility which is why the “sun shield” is a multi-layered construction designed to prevent tearing/rupture should it be punctured.

 

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2323498-james-webb-space-telescope-was-hit-by-a-tiny-space-rock-but-its-ok/