Climate Change - a poll

[grobyfox1990]

5 hours ago, st albans fox said:

 Not too sure about using models to estimate temp changes in the stratosphere going back to pre Industrial Revolution. Pretty sure we’ve only had actual mid/upper strat temps taken since around 1975 (and pre satellite data these were well spread).  (I stand to be corrected on that).   So we’re relying on models to go back more than 100 years using recent relationships between trop temp profiles and their relationship with Strat ones. (Past fifty years). 

 Btw, NAS needs to keep out of the way of the MAGA’s !

 

We can model temperature going back 100s of years based on tree rings. They grow wider in wetter/warm years and thinner in cold/dry years 

[st albans fox]

4 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

We can model temperature going back 100s of years based on tree rings. They grow wider in wetter/warm years and thinner in cold/dry years 

Precisely 

based on actual readings of the tree rings 

 

we don’t have actual readings in the stratosphere prior to the mid seventies and only detailed readings post 1990. 

[grobyfox1990]

1 minute ago, st albans fox said:

Precisely 

based on actual readings of the tree rings 

 

we don’t have actual readings in the stratosphere prior to the mid seventies and only detailed readings post 1990. 

Ah apologies, agreed, originally misread.

[leicsmac]

10 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Precisely 

based on actual readings of the tree rings 

 

we don’t have actual readings in the stratosphere prior to the mid seventies and only detailed readings post 1990. 

 

5 minutes ago, grobyfox1990 said:

Ah apologies, agreed, originally misread.

On topic: tree rings can also tell us about emissions that have made it to the stratosphere through the aforementioned temperature variables, thus providing a solid (though limited in its own way indirect) method.

[st albans fox]

50 minutes ago, leicsmac said:

 

On topic: tree rings can also tell us about emissions that have made it to the stratosphere through the aforementioned temperature variables, thus providing a solid (though limited in its own way indirect) method.

Can’t see how anything occurring in the lowest levels of the troposphere can tell us definitively about emissions making it into the stratosphere?  

[leicsmac]

11 minutes ago, st albans fox said:

Can’t see how anything occurring in the lowest levels of the troposphere can tell us definitively about emissions making it into the stratosphere?  

Changes in temperature that cause tree ring effects are, in part, caused by emissions that then reach and effect the stratosphere. It does therefore give more information on a small part of the puzzle. 

[blabyboy]

1 hour ago, grobyfox1990 said:

We can model temperature going back 100s of years based on tree rings. They grow wider in wetter/warm years and thinner in cold/dry years 

Unfortunate that we need millennia to get very good models over time.

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, blabyboy said:

Unfortunate that we need millennia to get very good models over time.

On the main topic of emissions and commensurate temperature increase, thankfully quite a few sources supply a wealth of information going back at least that far. 

[blabyboy]

Polar ice cores, fossilised fern leaves, some sedimentary extracts, is there much else?

 

I thought the lack of available data in these sources was why there is problem making more accurate predictions?

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, blabyboy said:

Polar ice cores, fossilised fern leaves, some sedimentary extracts, is there much else?

 

I thought the lack of available data in these sources was why there is problem making more accurate predictions?

Coral skeletons and pollen remains, to name two more. 

 

And on the contrary, all of those sources provide a great deal of data that shows both historical temperature levels and air chemical composition very clearly.

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cqjqzj8rnvyo

 

More people are buying electric cars and installing heat pumps than ever before, but those numbers need to increase even further, according to the government's climate advisers.

The independent Climate Change Committee said that the government needed to make sure that households benefit from the switch to cleaner technologies through lower bills.

"The government has made progress on a number of fronts, including on clean power, [but] they need to do more on making electricity cheap," Emma Pinchbeck, chief executive of the CCC, told BBC News.

In response Energy Secretary Ed Miliband thanked the committee for its advice and said it was committed to bringing down bills.

 

Progress is being made. Not as fast as it needed to be, but it is progress. 

 

The spectre of those who will choose short term self interest and guarantee long term disaster still looms in the background, though. The equation on this issue always has been to pay some to be ready now, or pay much, much more as a result ofthe consequences later - and as time passes, that cost only goes up. 

[leicsmac]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y74nv1zqpo

 

Health and fire warnings have been issued in countries across southern Europe, with temperatures expected to exceed 40C in some places over the weekend.

Italy, Greece, France, Spain and Portugal are among the countries affected - with the Spanish city of Seville forecast to hit 42C.

Hot air from North Africa, which is spreading across the Balkans to holiday destinations such as Croatia, is contributing to the soaring temperatures.

BBC Weather says the heatwave is "very intense" for this time of the year -with the continent normally experiencing such high temperatures in July and early August.

In Spain, emergency staff have been placed on standby to deal with a surge in heatstroke cases especially among the vulnerable including children, the elderly and those with chronic illnesses.

 

Ugh.

[The Year Of The Fox]

Global warming baby ❤️

[Trav Le Bleu]

1 hour ago, The Year Of The Fox said:

Global warming baby ❤️

Donald?

[The Year Of The Fox]

7 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Donald?

Sun worshipper who can’t afford 6 holidays a year 😎 

[leicsmac]

5 minutes ago, The Year Of The Fox said:

Sun worshipper who can’t afford 6 holidays a year 😎 

People say, "Don't you miss it, Gal?" I say, "What, England? Nah. Fvcking place. It's a dump. Don't make me laugh. Grey, grimy, sooty. What a shit hole. What a toilet. Every cvnt with a long face shuffling about, moaning, all worried. No thanks, not for me." They say, "What's it like, then, Spain?" And I'll say, "It's hot. Hot. Oh, it's fvcking hot. Too hot? Not for me, I love it." - Gal, Sexy Beast.

Edited 28 June 2025 by leicsmac

[Trav Le Bleu]

Personally, the sun can sod right off!

[The Year Of The Fox]

4 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Personally, the sun can sod right off!

Life’s better when the suns out and the days are long

[Dahnsouff]

Just now, The Year Of The Fox said:

Life’s better when the suns out and the days are long

Eye of the beholder stuff, some medical conditions would beg to differ!

[The Year Of The Fox]

1 minute ago, Dahnsouff said:

Eye of the beholder stuff, some medical conditions would beg to differ!

Of course. For every person that doesn’t like the sun, I bet 3 do though 

[Dahnsouff]

Just now, The Year Of The Fox said:

Of course. For every person that doesn’t like the sun, I bet 3 do though 

Absolutely, 3 is likely a low ratio tbh! We love the sun here. 

[Trav Le Bleu]

25 minutes ago, Dahnsouff said:

Eye of the beholder stuff, some medical conditions would beg to differ!

Because I'm a terrible geek (and probably thus my dislike of the sun ) I thought you were reference the early 90s Dungeon crawler video game.

 

I don't mind the sun per se, it's fine when it's further away in winter, spring and autumn. My garden is just dying right now, can't water it enough.

[Dahnsouff]

33 minutes ago, Trav Le Bleu said:

Because I'm a terrible geek (and probably thus my dislike of the sun ) I thought you were reference the early 90s Dungeon crawler video game.

 

I don't mind the sun per se, it's fine when it's further away in winter, spring and autumn. My garden is just dying right now, can't water it enough.

Love that game! Mate had anST with Dungeon Master, was not on my Amiga, so Eye of the Beholder was some recompense. 

Heat thing effects me for health reasons but I don’t begrudge it and still look forward to the sense of well-being it brings.

[Foxdiamond]

1 hour ago, The Year Of The Fox said:

Of course. For every person that doesn’t like the sun, I bet 3 do though 

The sun would be OK if the temperature did not go above about 23c. Noel Coward was right in his song Mad Dogs

[leicsmac]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09085-w

 

We estimate that global production declines 5.5 × 1014 kcal annually per 1 °C global mean surface temperature (GMST) rise (120 kcal per person per day or 4.4% of recommended consumption per 1 °C; P < 0.001). We project that adaptation and income growth alleviate 23% of global losses in 2050 and 34% at the end of the century (6% and 12%, respectively; moderate-emissions scenario), but substantial residual losses remain for all staples except rice. In contrast to analyses of other outcomes that project the greatest damages to the global poor10,11, we find that global impacts are dominated by losses to modern-day breadbaskets with favourable climates and limited present adaptation, although losses in low-income regions losses are also substantial. These results indicate a scale of innovation, cropland expansion or further adaptation that might be necessary to ensure food security in a changing climate.

 

Take away a vital part of Maslows Hierarchy and see how people like warmer weather then.