expectations vs reality

[Chrysalis]

Thought I would post this to knock some heads together and provide a reality check, this includes you mr Top.  If you think we should be higher up the table, how about spending something to support your theory.

 

 

We were at one point in a great position but I think far too many people have assumed other teams stand still, and not realised other clubs have improved their own positions relative to ourselves.  This applies both to the ownership of the club and a significant portion of our fan base.

Edited 24 November 2024 by Chrysalis

[sheffield_fox]

Yeah, can't think of any reason to not increase net spend at the moment... 

[Chrysalis]

How on earth do you get on the brink of a PSR charge, whilst devaluing your squad, club has been run really well.

[Guest]

Realistically, he's not been sacked because the board or supporters think we should be higher up the table, has he? The aim is to stay up and I have no doubt whatsoever that Top and co. would snap your hand off for 16th at the end of the season if offered it, as would I. He's been sacked because the performances have given little reason to believe we're likely to finish that high and both the fans and more importantly the players have been left totally unconvinced by his methods and tactics.

Edited 24 November 2024 by Guest

[Chrysalis]

2 minutes ago, Guest said:

Realistically, he's not been sacked because the board or supporters think we should be higher up the table, has he? The aim is to stay up and I have no doubt whatsoever that Top and co. would snap your hand off for 16th at the end of the season if offered it, as would I. He's been sacked because the performances have given little reason to believe we're likely to finish that high and both the fans and more importantly the players have been left totally unconvinced by his methods and tactics.

The club apparently have leaked to the press they think we should be higher up the table, hence me posting the squad value table.

Performances have been ok against teams around us, including ones with much higher squad value such as Palace.  If they think we should have performed better vs Chelsea they delusional. 

I think the real reason for the sacking is Top cant tolerate that we not playing like Man City and the disconnect with the fans, its a combination of those two things.

Edited 24 November 2024 by Chrysalis

[Guest]

16 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

The club apparently have leaked to the press they think we should be higher up the table, hence me posting the squad value table.

I can't say I've seen that anywhere. John Percy reckons survival is our sole focus and Cooper was told as much when he joined but I would be interested to read anything of substance to the contrary.

Edited 25 November 2024 by Guest

[Chrysalis]

2 minutes ago, Guest said:

I can't say I've seen that anywhere. John Percy reckons survival is our sole focus and Cooper was told as such when he joined but I would be interested to read anything of substance to the contrary.

Its on sky sports website, it has as much credibility as the players disconnect.

 

Quote

There is a feeling in the club's hierarchy that they could be higher than they are

 

Edited 24 November 2024 by Chrysalis

[Bptiger]

I watched both Ipswich and Southampton play this morning , and after watching our terrible team play , I was taken back by how good they played , they passed the ball around , attacked just as hard as United and Liverpool , wish our time would learn how to play that way , I can really see us in the bottom 3 very soon and we won’t get out of there 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Chrysalis said:

Its on sky sports website, it has as much credibility as the players disconnect.

Right but that says they think we could be higher up the table had we managed to beat either Everton or Ipswich and not been playing so badly in basically every game. It is very clear to me and I would imagine most other people that league position is not the primary factor in his dismissal but if you believe otherwise then fair enough.

[Chrysalis]

We will find out, if surviving is what Top has as #1, I expect someone like Moyes, if its fancy football, it will be some young up and coming manager.

Edited 24 November 2024 by Chrysalis

[Chrysalis]

2 minutes ago, Guest said:

Right but that says they think we could be higher up the table had we managed to beat either Everton or Ipswich and not been playing so badly in basically every game. It is very clear to me and I would imagine most other people that league position is not the primary factor in his dismissal but if you believe otherwise then fair enough.

I dont think its the primary factor, but that they came out and said that shows how delusional they are, we are actually currently over achieving.  We could have beaten those teams as much as could have lost the games we won.  Football is swings and roundabouts.

Edited 24 November 2024 by Chrysalis

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

I dont think its the primary factor, but that they came out and said that shows how delusional they are, we are actually currently over achieving.  We could have beaten those teams as much as could have lost the games we won.  Football is swings and roundabouts.

Overachieving compared to the estimated market value of our squad maybe - I believe total wage bill tends to be a better indicator of performance and the figures for that I can find put us at 13th-15th. Estimates sure, maybe not even semi-accurate ones, but at least a player does actually have a wage rather than a theoretical market value.

 

I'm not sure what it is you're actually upset about and the idea that Top has appointed Steve Cooper to get us playing like Man City then sacked him for failing to do so is completely mental so I think I will leave you to it.

[CPepFox]

5 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

I dont think its the primary factor, but that they came out and said that shows how delusional they are, we are actually currently over achieving.  We could have beaten those teams as much as could have lost the games we won.  Football is swings and roundabouts.

I dont think its the primary factor, but that they came out and said that shows how delusional they are, we are actually currently over achieving. 

 

With Cooper we lost points... we were lucky to grab a point vs Ipswich, lucky to manufacture a W against Southampton... there was no attack... just attempt to play defense, then when concede hope you could find an equalizer then play D again... it was tragic and horrific. Find a style, implement and go... yet Cooper did not... 

[funkyrobot]

3 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

I dont think it’s the primary factor, but that they came out and said that shows how delusional they are, we are actually currently over achieving.  We could have beaten those teams as much as could have lost the games we won.  Football is swings and roundabouts.

You can’t say we are overachieving. We have played easier games in the first ten games than we face in the second ten games. Only Everton have a tougher second part of the season than us. Wolves on the other hand had a very challenging first 10 games and now have a set of 10 easier games and they are picking up points accordingly. We are not overachieving, we have got points early on through a combination of an easier run and a good deal of luck. (4 points entirely down to 2 sendings off.) We are now quickly being caught hence Cooper had to go! 

[Chrysalis]

53 minutes ago, Guest said:

Overachieving compared to the estimated market value of our squad maybe - I believe total wage bill tends to be a better indicator of performance and the figures for that I can find put us at 13th-15th. Estimates sure, maybe not even semi-accurate ones, but at least a player does actually have a wage rather than a theoretical market value.

 

I'm not sure what it is you're actually upset about and the idea that Top has appointed Steve Cooper to get us playing like Man City then sacked him for failing to do so is completely mental so I think I will leave you to it.

 

Not hugely upset Cooper has gone, how I feel about all this will depend on who comes in to replace him.

 

But I dont like our heirachy claiming we under achieving when they havent provided the tools to be more than relegation fodder.  If it was all about survival then Cooper wouldnt have got fired.  So we know its not a results related decision as he had over performed on results.  I will also remind the club ownership performances dont achieve squat, points and results do.

 

If the club want people like me to respect that comment, then they free to spend a couple of hundred million to get our average player value above 19 million. 

The thing about player value is its not just based on what you got the player for, its based on how well the player performs, Mahrez of course prime example of that, his value wasnt 800k whilst we were on the way to winning the title, his performances would have made it sky rocket.  So the quality of the scouting and coaching plays a huge part, people have made good points that we built a world class training complex but didnt fill it with world class coaches.   Of course also the balance of the squad, our only EPL quality striker is almost 40.  We lost our best playmaker in the summer, and have a mish mash of players as player recruitment has not been in line with the owners football ideology.

Edited 25 November 2024 by Chrysalis

[Chrysalis]

51 minutes ago, funkyrobot said:

You can’t say we are overachieving. We have played easier games in the first ten games than we face in the second ten games. Only Everton have a tougher second part of the season than us. Wolves on the other hand had a very challenging first 10 games and now have a set of 10 easier games and they are picking up points accordingly. We are not overachieving, we have got points early on through a combination of an easier run and a good deal of luck. (4 points entirely down to 2 sendings off.) We are now quickly being caught hence Cooper had to go! 

We had a crap ton of luck last season and during our title win, I agree on the relative difficulty of the opponent though, perhaps you can find one of those league tables where it rates you based on level of the opponent.  Of course most of our opponents will have a higher rating than us, so such a table will have our expected points very low.

 

I found this image from optaanalyst, apparently we over performing, should be 18th.  This seems to be based on xG rather than difficulty of opponent though.

 

Edited 25 November 2024 by Chrysalis

[FLAN]

7 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

The club apparently have leaked to the press they think we should be higher up the table, hence me posting the squad value table.

Performances have been ok against teams around us, including ones with much higher squad value such as Palace.  If they think we should have performed better vs Chelsea they delusional. 

I think the real reason for the sacking is Top cant tolerate that we not playing like Man City and the disconnect with the fans, its a combination of those two things.

But we have been playing like Man City …

[funkyrobot]

6 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

We had a crap ton of luck last season and during our title win, I agree on the relative difficulty of the opponent though, perhaps you can find one of those league tables where it rates you based on level of the opponent.  Of course most of our opponents will have a higher rating than us, so such a table will have our expected points very low.

 

I found this image from optaanalyst, apparently we over performing, should be 18th.  This seems to be based on xG rather than difficulty of opponent though.

 

That backs up what I said. The club aren’t over achieving, the players have continually underachieved and have been lucky to pick up the extra points they have. We are in a false position. Statistically we are bottom 3 in all of the stats that matter XG, XGA etc and now we are playing better teams and without any improvement on the pitch, we have stopped picking up points and luck isn’t enough - we are dropping to where the stats say we should be. Cooper simply wasn’t getting enough out of the players he had and the points he achieved were because he got lucky both with fixture selection in that first 10, some bad finishing from the numerous good chances we’ve given to the opposition and sheer luck that enabled us to defy pretty much every damning stat. You can’t play a season relying on luck. 

[surrifox]

8 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

How on earth do you get on the brink of a PSR charge, whilst devaluing your squad, club has been run really well.

They retained a brilliant KC . Shame the people that found him aren’t in charge of recruiting players 

[funkyrobot]

7 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

The club apparently have leaked to the press they think we should be higher up the table, hence me posting the squad value table.

Performances have been ok against teams around us, including ones with much higher squad value such as Palace.  If they think we should have performed better vs Chelsea they delusional. 

I think the real reason for the sacking is Top cant tolerate that we not playing like Man City and the disconnect with the fans, its a combination of those two things.

We performed very badly against Chelsea, irrespective of the result. When only 2 of the 10 outfield players had games that you could argue were 6 or 7 out of 10 then the team underperformed. It’s definitely not delusional to have expected the team to play better.

[1972 Fox]

Apologies, wrong post quoted.

Edited 25 November 2024 by 1972 Fox

[teblin]

2 minutes ago, funkyrobot said:

We performed very badly against Chelsea, irrespective of the result. When only 2 of the 10 outfield players had games that you could argue were 6 or 7 out of 10 then the team underperformed. It’s definitely not delusional to have expected the team to play better.

Agree, I didn't go to that game expecting to win but expecting them to make Chelsea feel like they have to get out of 2nd gear.

 

The games has evolved soo much in the last 10 years, but under Pearson in the promotion season you knew e'd give teams a game. Even under Puel we'd beat and give the bigger teams a game.

 

We will have had a good season if we just stay up, but if you aim low you will get low, nothing wrong with aiming higher irrespective of team value, we will have a higher value team if we finish higher up the league.

[teblin]

1 minute ago, 1972 Fox said:

Top is completely disconnected with the fans himself.

On the whole I'd agree, lots at this club at the minute that not right. Sacking cooper is the 1st time in a while has me thinking Top hasn't completely lost sight of what is important.

[1972 Fox]

8 hours ago, Chrysalis said:

I think the real reason for the sacking is Top cant tolerate that we not playing like Man City and the disconnect with the fans, its a combination of those two things.

Top is completely disconnected with the fans himself.

[Globalfox]

Based on observations of the communications director, the overall lack of true journalists and the clear use of social media conspiracies by media outlets I cannot see that the club made any such comment on or off the record. I believe that Cooper has never had dressing room support and Vardy probably had a right moan at the owner post Chelsea driving an action that was already on his mind. The body language of the key people was very negative well before the end of the game on Saturday. It was never going to work supporters me included hated the man for his past coaching failures and his declared love of Forest. Perfect storm with the likeliest outcome.