Les-TA-Jon Posted 15 January 2011 Posted 15 January 2011 first of all - i'm not a nay sayer or a pessimistic LCFC fan - I think we're doing really well under Sven and the new owners - and we've got quite a good squad ever since Pearson really. And also i'm sorry if there's too many of these threads or anything - but i'm just trying something a little bit different - i.e with stats and the like So.....our chances of promotion Lets look at the last 10 seasons - who finished 6th and how many points they had. 2000/2001 - West Brom - 74pts 2001/2002 - Norwich - 75pts 2002/2003 - Forest - 74pts 2003/2004 - Palace - 73pts 2004/2005 - West Ham - 73pts 2005/2006 - Palace - 75pts 2006/2007 - Soton - 75pts 2007/2008 - Watford - 70pts 2008/2009 - Preston - 74pts 2009/2010 - Blackpool - 70pts So the average points needed to secure 6th Place is 73.3 points We're currently on 27 played and 36 points Meaning we have 19 games left to achieve 37.3 points - out of 57 available. Meaning we need to achieve 1.96 points per game. Our current average is 1.33 for the season so far It's 1.44 points per game since Sousa (C Powell 1 game and Sven 17) - 18 games - 26 points --------------------------------------------------- So now to get the big picture we need to compare ourselves and our position to our rivals. I'll just remind you of leicester's position and then just go down the table in order So LCFC - currently on 1.33 points per game and require 1.96 points per game for 6th place average. QPR - 1.22 pts per game for 6th place average (73.3 pts) Swansea - 1.44 Cardiff - 1.46 Norwich - 1.46 Leeds - 1.54 Watford - 1.49 Reading - 1.66 Forest - 1.52 Millwall - 1.72 Burnley - 1.77 Coventry - 1.96 Hull - 1.86 LCFC - 1.96 Derby - 1.97 Doncaster - 1.79 Barnsley - 1.92 Bristol City - 2.12 Portsmouth -2.1 Middlesbrough - 2.22 Ipswich - 2.16 Sheff Utd - 2.32 Palace - 2.42 S****horpe - 2.29 Preston - 2.54 But obviously it must be noted that some teams have much lower rates to achieve than you might expect - this is because of games in hand (Doncaster for instance, or Ipswich, or S****horpe) I except that football is a human sport, played by humans managed by humans and that it isn't just maths - but there is averages and there is rates that need to be met to reach certain targets. So do we think this is achievable? What do you reckon?
The Doctor Posted 15 January 2011 Posted 15 January 2011 i think we should forget the stats, ignore the league for the moment and focus our attentions on the fa cup - then once that dream is over/we destroy the manc bastards we can focus on the milllllllll game. One game at a time.
Leicester_Loyal Posted 15 January 2011 Posted 15 January 2011 Don't think we will go up this year, but thats just my opinion. 2 points a game is too much to ask for.
brockmyster Posted 15 January 2011 Posted 15 January 2011 Don't think we will go up this year, but thats just my opinion. 2 points a game is too much to ask for. We managed it with the likes of Billy Mckinlay and nicky summerbee in 02/03 so why cant we do it this year with yakubu and king??
DanTheMan Posted 15 January 2011 Posted 15 January 2011 Not to get too bogged down in over-analysis, but this thread got me thinking, and I did a quick graph to show our points-per-match average after each game based on the number of games we'd played at any given point in the season so far. The red dot is the first match (S****horpe) after Sousa left, and it speaks volumes about the consistency and improved performance under Sven. I definitely think that it is still achieveable to reach the play-offs - whether it is still a realistic possibility is starting to shift into an uncertain area. There have been maybe half a dozen games this season where we have either been winning and then ended up conceding to end in a draw (as has happened today against Preston) or be drawing and then conceding late on to end up losing. When this has happened, on a week to week basis I'm tempted to think to myself "2 points doesn't break the bank" but if that's happend 5 or 6 times this season, that is the best part of 10 or 12 points carelessly lost. In which case we could be higher than we are now and in a much more certain situation. Of course there is no point in getting worked up about opportunities lost, and we need to just get on with the job at hand, which is slowly working at moving up the table, and hopefully the fact we now have The Yak (and possibly others such as Parker to follow) will mean that we become clinical up-front, where as was shown today, we are still lacking. If we can convert more of our near-misses and shots on target, we can see off games like today's and start racking up the points.
haraven Posted 15 January 2011 Posted 15 January 2011 Thanks for the maths and stats Les-Ta-jon, good work there - stats do actually tell a bit about our chances. It is going to be hard to get a top 6, and we need to stop wasting 2 points like today.
Legend_in_blue Posted 15 January 2011 Posted 15 January 2011 We have 10 home games to play. I can't see us losing any of these. All are winable. That puts us on 66, 7 short of your target. Three away wins from 9 is definately achievable. Then there's our pitch. Just relaid. I think we're setting ourselves up for a real push, particularly with the home form, and considering Sven's record at home, this is no surprise. I think we'll still make it.
MattyFromLE Posted 15 January 2011 Posted 15 January 2011 Keep the faith! It wouldn't be supporting City if we didn't shoot ourselves in the foot every now and again!
Muzzy Izzn't Posted 15 January 2011 Posted 15 January 2011 God I feel for S****horpe - every forum they are mentioned on they may have a word filter on every time.
Leicester_Loyal Posted 15 January 2011 Posted 15 January 2011 We have 10 home games to play. I can't see us losing any of these. All are winable. That puts us on 66, 7 short of your target. Three away wins from 9 is definately achievable. Then there's our pitch. Just relaid. I think we're setting ourselves up for a real push, particularly with the home form, and considering Sven's record at home, this is no surprise. I think we'll still make it. We'll lose one or two at the most. Maybe draw one or two. Were looking at a good 7 or 8 wins though, which is 21 or 24 points.
1991FOX Posted 15 January 2011 Posted 15 January 2011 If we can pick up 15 to 20 points away from home then i think we can do it
Leicester_Loyal Posted 15 January 2011 Posted 15 January 2011 If we can pick up 15 to 20 points away from home then i think we can do it Thats a big if when you can't beat the bottom club away from home.
shailen Posted 16 January 2011 Posted 16 January 2011 Todays game doesnt really dent our chances of making the play offs. I think we need to win 12 of the 19 games we have remaining or accumulate 36 points for a play off spot. Tough ask but we can do it! Yakubu looked amazing today and if we keep him kingy and vassell scoring we could really revive our goal difference
Haydos Posted 16 January 2011 Posted 16 January 2011 Todays game doesnt really dent our chances of making the play offs. Is this.....a joke? I'm not sure I understand it.
shailen Posted 16 January 2011 Posted 16 January 2011 Is this.....a joke? I'm not sure I understand it. It hasnt exactly meant we cant get promotion and there are still enuf games for us to book tht play off space. I agree tht we shud hav won this but it hasnt defined our season as not being able to get promotion
Haydos Posted 16 January 2011 Posted 16 January 2011 It hasnt exactly meant we cant get promotion and there are still enuf games for us to book tht play off space. I agree tht we shud hav won this but it hasnt defined our season as not being able to get promotion No, you're right. But you didn't say that. You said it didn't dent our chances, which it very much did. At the end of the season it's games like this which are 'dropped points'. They're bottom of the table and lost 4 in a row before this. If we miss out by two points you can quite easily look to this game and say what if? But that's football.
1991FOX Posted 16 January 2011 Posted 16 January 2011 Thats a big if when you can't beat the bottom club away from home. shit happens, with yakubu n vassel in the team we'll soon be where we want and there wont be a team in this league we can't beat
Leicester_Loyal Posted 16 January 2011 Posted 16 January 2011 shit happens, with yakubu n vassel in the team we'll soon be where we want and there wont be a team in this league we can't beat Their main position is striker, one is going to have to go out on the wing I'm assuming. We can beat everyone at the moment, its just actually doing it. We keep dropping points and thats the reason why we aren't at the top, because of the silly goals we are conceding.
1991FOX Posted 16 January 2011 Posted 16 January 2011 Their main position is striker, one is going to have to go out on the wing I'm assuming. We can beat everyone at the moment, its just actually doing it. We keep dropping points and thats the reason why we aren't at the top, because of the silly goals we are conceding. Unless sven adopts 442 then they both play. Our defence is still shoddy but with bamba only just coming into the side I hope they gel better soon. Also believe we now can score more goals and i hope im right so our defensive frailties wont effect as bad as it is. My head says play-offs are a far cry and wont happen, but when it comes to leicester I only think with my heart and it says play-offs will happen.
Les-TA-Jon Posted 8 March 2011 Author Posted 8 March 2011 Just thought i'd bump and update this thread Reminder - The average points of 6th place teams finishes over the last 10 seasons were 73.3 pts. Lowest 70pts / Highest 75pts. So below is the current league table (1st to 15th - the others are too far off) and how many points per game each team needs to acheive 73.3 pts 1st QPR - They're on 70 already...... 2nd Swansea - 1.03 3rd Cardiff - 1.12 4th Norwich - 1.21 5th Forest - 1.3 6th Leeds - 1.49 7th Burnley - 1.57 (two games in hand) 8th Hull - 1.94 9th LCFC - 1.94 10th Reading - 2.03 11th Portsmouth - 2.12 12th Watford - 2.03 (one game in hand) 13th Millwall - 2.4 14th Ipswich - 2.36 (one game in hand) 15th Bristol City - 2.67 So whilst we still have a doable target - the other teams above have an easier requirement? I just can't see them making room for us? Hope the foxes prove me wrong!
Aeropars Posted 8 March 2011 Posted 8 March 2011 We're very much in the hands of the gods. We need to keep winning and just hope others lose above us. My personal opinion is that we're just going to miss out in 8th place. An awsome acheivement by anyones account and while i'd be disapointed if we dont go up, i'll be watching in anticipation of the coming season as i think that we will be a force.
topharry123 Posted 8 March 2011 Posted 8 March 2011 It's doable, today will give a better picture I believe. Win and great chance, lose and almost game over....not quite but almost. Remember that we're going to need an extra point over everyone else as well due to our goal difference, unless we can bump it up over the next few games by a lot !!!
Jon the Hat Posted 8 March 2011 Posted 8 March 2011 I am actually starting to think we have left ourselves with too much to do now, and we are not the form team any more. That said there are worst things that going into next season with real hope of being a contender from the start. It was fun in League 1 wasn't it
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