DANGEROUS TIGER Posted 17 February 2014 Posted 17 February 2014 The cow will really have to jump over the moon for us to get relegated even.
rex fox Posted 17 February 2014 Posted 17 February 2014 Good idea, but I'm afraid the "droppable" analysis doesn't work As an illustration of why not, if we were hypothetically 1 point ahead of every other team then under your analysis the Droppable total would be 23, far less than the Needed column, but it would be patently the case that we could theoretically come last in that scenario I think instead you should use your "Needed" column and compare it to Available Points This, I think = 189 matches remaining x 3 = 567 Still less than the needed column, so you are right we can't finish bottom The above analysis slightly overstates the balance between available and needed points, because it assumes every match is a win. but if for example burnley get exactly 7 points then one game is drawn which means someone else drops 2 points, so available points is 1 lower. or burnley get 9 points in which case Needed points is 2 points higher Despite this effect you are also right we are not theoretically safe yet This is my first ever post, and I apologise in advance, and for the record - COYB, what a season!
Harry - LCFC Posted 17 February 2014 Posted 17 February 2014 Good idea, but I'm afraid the "droppable" analysis doesn't work As an illustration of why not, if we were hypothetically 1 point ahead of every other team then under your analysis the Droppable total would be 23, far less than the Needed column, but it would be patently the case that we could theoretically come last in that scenario I think instead you should use your "Needed" column and compare it to Available Points This, I think = 189 matches remaining x 3 = 567 Still less than the needed column, so you are right we can't finish bottom The above analysis slightly overstates the balance between available and needed points, because it assumes every match is a win. but if for example burnley get exactly 7 points then one game is drawn which means someone else drops 2 points, so available points is 1 lower. or burnley get 9 points in which case Needed points is 2 points higher Despite this effect you are also right we are not theoretically safe yet This is my first ever post, and I apologise in advance, and for the record - COYB, what a season! I was aware of this and you're quite right to point it out. The inefficient win/draw system does mean that droppable points could be higher than points needed and we'd still be safe. I'm not sure I quite understand your second paragraph. If everyone was a point behind us the need column would be 23 not the droppable one. The teams below us would need to pick up only 23 points to catch us and thus could afford to drop quite a lot.
rex fox Posted 17 February 2014 Posted 17 February 2014 Yes, you're right Something still bugs me about this though. I don't see why my Available points gives a different answer?
fuchsntf Posted 17 February 2014 Posted 17 February 2014 Turn your computer off. Go out. Take in some fresh air. Maybe even talk to some fellow human beings ? A girl or two, perhaps? A coffee. Maybe even seek some professional advice? Just heard on the grapevine....Harry tried to open the window for some fresh air, knocked over his coffee over his keyboard, attempted contact with fellow humans, got chased off, being told he needed to see a trickcyclist, one happy note... Hes having a threesome tonight, with 2 city chearleaders....good ol Harry.Thats turned the tables innit..!!!
rex fox Posted 17 February 2014 Posted 17 February 2014 Got it Our approaches are both right Available points actually = 570 ( I miscounted number of games left by 1) I'm saying it would be theoretically possible (ignoring draws) if available = needed, ie 570 points You are saying possible if dropped = needed , which is halfway between 506 and 634. That is 570 points too Smart analysis (yours I mean) sorry for criticising
Harry - LCFC Posted 17 February 2014 Posted 17 February 2014 Got it Our approaches are both right Available points actually = 570 ( I miscounted number of games left by 1) I'm saying it would be theoretically possible (ignoring draws) if available = needed, ie 570 points You are saying possible if dropped = needed , which is halfway between 506 and 634. That is 570 points too Smart analysis (yours I mean) sorry for criticising Please don't feel obliged to apologise. I'm glad someone challenged what I said, I thought I was going to get away with not mentioning the win/draw issue for a moment! And btw to the forum! Glad someone wants to engage with my stuff and I'm not just babbling to myself!
Guest MarshallForEngland Posted 17 February 2014 Posted 17 February 2014 Got it Our approaches are both right Available points actually = 570 ( I miscounted number of games left by 1) I'm saying it would be theoretically possible (ignoring draws) if available = needed, ie 570 points You are saying possible if dropped = needed , which is halfway between 506 and 634. That is 570 points too Smart analysis (yours I mean) sorry for criticising Loving the politeness of a new poster. Do you not know how it works on here mate? You're supposed to call someone you disagree with a horrific name and when you're proven wrong post an emoticon of a man fishing, pretending you were just trolling all along. It's the Foxestalk way.
Kitchandro Posted 18 February 2014 Posted 18 February 2014 Let's not even bother playing Forest, a defeat is inevitable after an 11 match unbeaten run including 9 wins on the bounce. Just give them the points. We didn't turn up at all for the match on Saturday.
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