Spring Budget 2014

[Zingari]

This would sound a lot less whacky if you could could provide some examples. I can help you out with one - labour's welfare state. Pitched as if it's based on altruism, it's actually intended as a vote buying machine that traps people into dependency.

Do you have any more?

Have you got any evidence that the cost of benefits has been reduced since the tories came to power ?

if so by how much ?

And does that include the payments made out to ATOS and for the all various schemes to massage the figures ?

 

Give me the bottom line grand total of all the savings achieved by the cuts and how has that affected the amount of tax you pay each year 

 

i doubt if it would pay for a pint of lager for us all,   in fact i think you're paying more in real terms  , but i await eagerly for your figures to show me how much better i am due to welfare cuts 

[ADK]

I'd like to know that too Zingari. If we had achieved much in the way of welfare cuts you'd have thought the Tories would be shouting from the rooftops.

[MooseBreath]

Have you got any evidence that the cost of benefits has been reduced since the tories came to power ?

if so by how much ?

And does that include the payments made out to ATOS and for the all various schemes to massage the figures ?

Give me the bottom line grand total of all the savings achieved by the cuts and how has that affected the amount of tax you pay each year

i doubt if it would pay for a pint of lager for us all, in fact i think you're paying more in real terms , but i await eagerly for your figures to show me how much better i am due to welfare cuts

Not sure why you're asking me this. I thought we were talking about government policies that aren't what they are purported to be.

As for welfare spending, I believe it has fallen a touch in recent years. Not nearly enough.

[Zingari]

Not sure why you're asking me this. I thought we were talking about government policies that aren't what they are purported to be.

As for welfare spending, I believe it has fallen a touch in recent years. Not nearly enough.

 

What i'm trying to put across is that the reasons given for the improvements in our finances cannot be  down to the austerity measures . there isn't any evidence these measures are of any financial significance whatsoever. You've pretty much admitted that 

How can this little fall in benefit spending ( if indeed it is because you seem coy about giving any figures ) be touted as the reason for the so called upturn in the economy .

it must be a myth or a cunning misdirection to make people believe that the suffering caused to the disabled/unemployed is doing all the good to our economy

it quite obviously is nothing to do with the benefits cuts etc 

Any benefits from the cuts are purely about schadenfreude felt by those who are just political dogmatists 

[MooseBreath]

What i'm trying to put across is that the reasons given for the improvements in our finances cannot be down to the austerity measures . there isn't any evidence these measures are of any financial significance whatsoever. You've pretty much admitted that

How can this little fall in benefit spending ( if indeed it is because you seem coy about giving any figures ) be touted as the reason for the so called upturn in the economy .

it must be a myth or a cunning misdirection to make people believe that the suffering caused to the disabled/unemployed is doing all the good to our economy

it quite obviously is nothing to do with the benefits cuts etc

Any benefits from the cuts are purely about schadenfreude felt by those who are just political dogmatists

Cutting welfare spending is a policy aimed at reducing borrowing and ultimately reducing public debt. The economic growth we've been seeing may or may not be in part due to the cuts in welfare forcing more people into work (I doubt accurate data on this exists), but that's not really the point. It is aimed at reducing debt not creating growth. It is testament to the ability of the tories that they've managed to achieve growth through other policies while putting the breaks on borrowing.

[Jon the Hat]

Sorry - now you lefties are telling us we are not actually cutting anything??  How can this be given the amount of whinging about terrible impact of the cuts?

 

Honestly this government is far from perfect, but if all they do is tax less and pay less benefits - often impacting the the same low paid people - they will have made things simpler and saved bureaucracy - they will get my vote.

[Captain...]

 

Not my work, just sharing...

[Zingari]

Sorry - now you lefties are telling us we are not actually cutting anything??  How can this be given the amount of whinging about terrible impact of the cuts?

 

Honestly this government is far from perfect, but if all they do is tax less and pay less benefits - often impacting the the same low paid people - they will have made things simpler and saved bureaucracy - they will get my vote.

No-one saying the tories aren't cutting anything , they are .

 But the savings on these cuts are minimal when talking about the debt , but huge in the effects they have on the most vulnerable.

And what I keep trying to point out is the ridiculous implication by the government that these cuts have  resulted in the economic turnaround . Any dubious amount of savings made by these cuts will have been swallowed up by payments to ATOS and various schemes designed to make the unemployment figures look better . And any savings ( if there are any ) are too minimal and can't possibly have had any effect on the UKs finances in that short period of time . 

[MooseBreath]

Can you provide some examples of where the government has implied specifically that cuts to welfare have led to growth?

[Guest MattP]

Hopefully a more united left leads to them being removed at the next election.

 

Not going to happen.

 

Same as with Gordon Brown, even those on the left know they can't get into bed with Miliband and Balls as they will look absolutely ridiculous in a couple of years and will have destroyed any credibility they had.

[Zingari]

Can you provide some examples of where the government has implied specifically that cuts to welfare have led to growth?

what !!! they and their puppet masters are  always bangin on about how the austerity measures are proving everyone wrong  and how it's led to the "recovery"

 

 

 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2471132/Banker-Alan-Greenspan-praises-George-Osbornes-austerity-measures.html

[MooseBreath]

what !!! they and their puppet masters are always bangin on about how the austerity measures are proving everyone wrong and how it's led to the "recovery"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2471132/Banker-Alan-Greenspan-praises-George-Osbornes-austerity-measures.html

They're not saying that austerity causes growth, they are saying that growth in spite of austerity is excellent.

Anyone can create growth by borrowing vast sums of money and spending it but that leads to high debt. Anyone can cut the debt by hammering public spending but that leads to low growth. Achieving growth while cutting debt is the challenge.

[Zingari]

They're not saying that austerity causes growth, they are saying that growth in spite of austerity is excellent.

Anyone can create growth by borrowing vast sums of money and spending it but that leads to high debt. Anyone can cut the debt by hammering public spending but that leads to low growth. Achieving growth while cutting debt is the challenge.

Yes quite so moosey   but anyone reading that would connect the two .

A sophisticated bloke like you would know the difference , but how many others in reality . Come on be honest 

[l444ry]

Yes quite so moosey   but anyone reading that would connect the two .

A sophisticated bloke like you would know the difference , but how many others in reality . Come on be honest 

Game, Set and Match Zingari!

[Alf Bentley]

Interesting budget....

 

A couple of good bits:

- Boosting exports/investment: Export finance doubled & tax-free investment allowance doubled. It's interesting that Osborne feels that investment/growth/exports need this major stimulus. Maybe he realises that current growth, based on debt & a housing boom is unsustainable long-term. So, he's trying to turn it into real growth. Good! Shows he's a bit wiser than the Tory supporters on here, who are forever singing that everything is coming up roses, just leave it to the market! The fall in unemployment seems to be leveling off, business investment is low.... Might just make these unbelievable growth forecasts come true....

- Tackling tax avoidance: Too little and too late, but at last he's taking some action on tax avoidance by the rich and corporations. If they find other loopholes or scuttle off to tax havens, it might just prove to be a PR exercise, as it is a high profile issue, but at least he's trying now.

 

The "Meh!" bit:

- Tax-free personal allowance up £500 to £10,500: Well, £100 per year more in the pocket is better than nothing, but it's hardly megabucks, is it, when inflation has been outpacing pay rises for years? Pretty inefficient and non-progressive, too, as someone on £500,000 will also pay £100 less tax, while someone on less than £10,000 (e.g. part-time workers) will get no benefit. Still, a small bonus for quite a lot of people, including those on low, full-time wages.

 

The really interesting bit:

- Freeing pensioners to take their pension money up front: I don't buy the idea that loads of pensioners will splurge their money on cruises (or beer and bingo!). I'm sure many will keep most or all their money tied to annuities, but this could still have a big impact. If a lot see more money to be earned from buying property (buy-to-let or for family), that could send house prices even higher, pricing even more young people out of buying a home, so personal wealth will depend even more on your family. On the other hand, some pensioners may want to take a large portion of their pension money to help out adult children who are struggling to get by. If they keep too little or the housing market crashes, a load more pensioners could end up in poverty or dependent on the state, long-term....then again, it could give a useful stimulus to economic demand, and redistribute some cash from richer babyboomers to younger generations (though only in certain families)....a massive gamble!

 

The unclear bit:

- There's going to be a cap on welfare spending (supported by Labour, too), but the devil will be in the detail: there will be further cuts, but where exactly will they fall?

 

"Everything's coming up roses!"

- Is it?!? Unemployment still at historically high levels, and the fall seemingly leveling off...Real incomes falling for 5 years and still falling now, even if they're expected to turn the corner soon (will they? why?)...Growth still fueled by personal debt and a housing boom....The slowest recovery since at least the 19th century....Investment and exports still low....High levels of poverty and growing inequality....public services creaking at the seams....the deficit falling very slowly.....debt still rising....the potential for crises (e.g. Russian gas supplies).

 

There's some stuff in this budget that might help establish a sustainable recovery with better living standards for Joe Public, not just the elite. Wouldn't like to guess the outcome of the general election at this stage. Doubtless lots of big majorities for Labour in the North and for the Tories in the South-East, in this divided country of ours, but what about the marginals? Some stuff here could help the Tories hang on, particularly if growth/employment do OK for the next year, but it could still be a very good election to lose as there could be a hell of a big pile of crap around the corner (especially if the pensions gamble backfires or the housing/debt bubble bursts). Let's hope businesses do start investing...but do they see demand for their goods and services?

[Alf Bentley]

Let's nail a few Tory lies here (click links for graphs using official figures)....

 

"The Government has done a great job restoring growth". No! It's the slowest recovery from a recession in living memory:

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=UK+growth+graph&rlz=1C1WZPD_enGB397GB505&espv=210&es_sm=122&tbm=isch&imgil=giQZ2Pa_O2dXJM%253A%253Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fencrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com%252Fimages%253Fq%253Dtbn%253AANd9GcScZC4hjfwseJfdVf-_Q-Vk3GrHyWWTK_JVGluc-n5XjVYGmMpK%253B600%253B450%253BMuDtomw8ZHLWDM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fwww.leftfootforward.org%25252F2011%25252F11%25252Fuk-gdp-q3-growth-figures-long-term-trends%25252F&source=iu&usg=__xiYZL6L56DFPQJkXenM0UUOd4xI%3D&sa=X&ei=Xh4sU6idN4rMhAei2IGAAw&ved=0CD0Q9QEwAw#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=dt2loW6wbcXRCM%253A%3BCNwGwuALRnGpZM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.leftfootforward.org%252Fimages%252F2013%252F01%252FUK-recoveries-cf-1974-1981-1992-2009-recessions.gif%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.leftfootforward.org%252F2013%252F01%252Fdepression-longest-in-modern-history-yet-economy-still-creating-jobs%252F%3B600%3B400

 

"The UK is leading the way in Europe" No! UK growth has been similar to European growth for years. In fact, until very recently, it was lagging behind both Europe and the USA. UK growth has jumped ahead in the last year or so, but is that just fueled by a housing bubble (exacerbated by "Help to Buy") and increased personal debt?

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=UK+growth+graph&rlz=1C1WZPD_enGB397GB505&espv=210&es_sm=122&tbm=isch&imgil=giQZ2Pa_O2dXJM%253A%253Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fencrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com%252Fimages%253Fq%253Dtbn%253AANd9GcScZC4hjfwseJfdVf-_Q-Vk3GrHyWWTK_JVGluc-n5XjVYGmMpK%253B600%253B450%253BMuDtomw8ZHLWDM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fwww.leftfootforward.org%25252F2011%25252F11%25252Fuk-gdp-q3-growth-figures-long-term-trends%25252F&source=iu&usg=__xiYZL6L56DFPQJkXenM0UUOd4xI%3D&sa=X&ei=Xh4sU6idN4rMhAei2IGAAw&ved=0CD0Q9QEwAw#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=jtHRi-9mpFAVbM%253A%3B71M7Ng9eaPeyzM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.economicshelp.org%252Fblog%252Fwp-content%252Fuploads%252F2011%252F06%252Fuk-euro-growth.png%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.economicshelp.org%252Fblog%252F2912%252Feconomics%252Ftwo-speed-europe%252F%3B885%3B588

 

"The Tories are always having to clear up the mess after irresponsible Labour spending" No! There are plenty of arguments for Tory policies and plenty of sticks to beat Labour with, without resorting to this lie. The UK has had a structural deficit for 30+ years. During that time, we only had a surplus for 2 years under Thatcher and 3 years under Blair. Overall, although they shouldn't have been running a deficit in a boom, Labour's deficit was lower than John Major's....until the financial crash of 2008/9.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/oct/18/deficit-debt-government-borrowing-data#zoomed-picture

[Guest MattP]

Good write up Alf. Enjoyable read as always.

 

Osborne smarter than most Tories on here - I should hope so, that's why he's the chancellor, I'd imagine he is smarter than everyone on here!

 

Tacking Tax Avoidance - never going to happen whoever is in charge, the more I read on it the more I realise it's pretty much an impossible job, the existance now of "e wallets" has even brought tax avoidance to the lower and middle classes. If you know the laws and how it works, you can avoid, as soon as you close that another avenue will open, just something that's going to be the way of the World now.

 

Meh! - £100 a year Nothing?! Have you not read Jack Munroe in the Guardian? That can feed a family of five for nearly three months if you do,  seriously though giving low income people more of the money that have earnt is never a bad thing.

 

Pensioners - Nothing else needs to be said, it's their money, it's offensive to suggest the state tells you how to spend it. If people are smart enough to save up for retirement I have the confidence in them that will be smart enough not to blow it. We are backing people here who have made a sound well thought out investment over a long period of time, not the people in the food bank line at DNO.

 

Welfare spending needs sorting out whoever is in charge, I'm glad Labour have finally came round to that.

 

Don't agree on Public services creeking and see no evidence for it, school results are getting better according to latest reports, violent crime is down and as for the NHS, well just ask the Welsh what they think of Labour's handling of that in Wales if you think that's creeking under the Tories, they are having to send people to us for treatment.

 

All in all a good budget though and it appears to have been given a massive thumps up from the general public.

[DennisNedry]

l444ry, would you seriously trust Ed Milliband and Labour with the economy?

 

Even if you hate the Conservatives, who are the better option?

[MooseBreath]

Let's nail a few Tory lies here (click links for graphs using official figures)....

"The Government has done a great job restoring growth". No! It's the slowest recovery from a recession in living memory:

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=UK+growth+graph&rlz=1C1WZPD_enGB397GB505&espv=210&es_sm=122&tbm=isch&imgil=giQZ2Pa_O2dXJM%253A%253Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fencrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com%252Fimages%253Fq%253Dtbn%253AANd9GcScZC4hjfwseJfdVf-_Q-Vk3GrHyWWTK_JVGluc-n5XjVYGmMpK%253B600%253B450%253BMuDtomw8ZHLWDM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fwww.leftfootforward.org%25252F2011%25252F11%25252Fuk-gdp-q3-growth-figures-long-term-trends%25252F&source=iu&usg=__xiYZL6L56DFPQJkXenM0UUOd4xI%3D&sa=X&ei=Xh4sU6idN4rMhAei2IGAAw&ved=0CD0Q9QEwAw#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=dt2loW6wbcXRCM%253A%3BCNwGwuALRnGpZM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.leftfootforward.org%252Fimages%252F2013%252F01%252FUK-recoveries-cf-1974-1981-1992-2009-recessions.gif%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.leftfootforward.org%252F2013%252F01%252Fdepression-longest-in-modern-history-yet-economy-still-creating-jobs%252F%3B600%3B400

"The UK is leading the way in Europe" No! UK growth has been similar to European growth for years. In fact, until very recently, it was lagging behind both Europe and the USA. UK growth has jumped ahead in the last year or so, but is that just fueled by a housing bubble (exacerbated by "Help to Buy") and increased personal debt?

https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=UK+growth+graph&rlz=1C1WZPD_enGB397GB505&espv=210&es_sm=122&tbm=isch&imgil=giQZ2Pa_O2dXJM%253A%253Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fencrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com%252Fimages%253Fq%253Dtbn%253AANd9GcScZC4hjfwseJfdVf-_Q-Vk3GrHyWWTK_JVGluc-n5XjVYGmMpK%253B600%253B450%253BMuDtomw8ZHLWDM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fwww.leftfootforward.org%25252F2011%25252F11%25252Fuk-gdp-q3-growth-figures-long-term-trends%25252F&source=iu&usg=__xiYZL6L56DFPQJkXenM0UUOd4xI%3D&sa=X&ei=Xh4sU6idN4rMhAei2IGAAw&ved=0CD0Q9QEwAw#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=jtHRi-9mpFAVbM%253A%3B71M7Ng9eaPeyzM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.economicshelp.org%252Fblog%252Fwp-content%252Fuploads%252F2011%252F06%252Fuk-euro-growth.png%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.economicshelp.org%252Fblog%252F2912%252Feconomics%252Ftwo-speed-europe%252F%3B885%3B588

"The Tories are always having to clear up the mess after irresponsible Labour spending" No! There are plenty of arguments for Tory policies and plenty of sticks to beat Labour with, without resorting to this lie. The UK has had a structural deficit for 30+ years. During that time, we only had a surplus for 2 years under Thatcher and 3 years under Blair. Overall, although they shouldn't have been running a deficit in a boom, Labour's deficit was lower than John Major's....until the financial crash of 2008/9.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/oct/18/deficit-debt-government-borrowing-data#zoomed-picture

It was also the deepest and most dangerous recession in living memory, set against a back drop of the highest level of debt in proportion to gdp in non post war history, so the speed of recovery is less important than its sustainability. The government could have easily borrowed their way to quick unsustainable growth, or followed America's example of relentlessly pumping in QE but both would have been irresponsible given the debt.

We are the fastest growing economy in europe and are on track to be the biggest eeconomy in europe within a few years. Both the usa and Europe still have a big old mess to clean up, we've had the mop and bucket out for a couple of years already and are in a much better position to now outpace them consistently for the forseeable future.

Help to buy is nothing to do with it, the amount of money that has changed hands because of help to buy is insignificant overall. A more buoyant housing market if just a natural byproduct of a more vibrant economy. What's more important in the housing market is the government's new drive to build hundreds if thousands of new homes. That's exactly what the country needs imo. Increased supply = more reasonable prices. We've been suffering the consequences of the under supply of houses for too long. Full credit to the tories for doing something serious about it. They'll get panned if it causes house prices to fall (which it should) but it is the right thing to do. A very noble act.

[Webbo]

what !!! they and their puppet masters are  always bangin on about how the austerity measures are proving everyone wrong  and how it's led to the "recovery"

 

 

 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2471132/Banker-Alan-Greenspan-praises-George-Osbornes-austerity-measures.html

They have proved Ed Balls and a collection of left wing economists wrong. We were told there'd be mast unemployment, unemployment has gone down. we were told there was going to be a triple dip recession, we didn't even have a double dip recession.

 

When things started to turn around you and others told us that it was all a con, the govt were making up statistics and things were actually getting worse. At least now you seem to accept that we have actually got a recovery.

 

If these policies had failed we'd have told it was all the Tories fault, now because growth is up , inflation and unemployment is down we're told that it's just a lucky coincidence, it's the world economy that's recovered, nothing to do with the govt at all. You can't have it both ways.

[MooseBreath]

Yes quite so moosey but anyone reading that would connect the two .

A sophisticated bloke like you would know the difference , but how many others in reality . Come on be honest

I don't know zingo. I'd expect that anyone with a basic grasp of economics recognises that growth and debt are not the same thing. I'm not sure I'd want to live in a world where everything has to be dumbed down to that level. Maybe if you dont have a basic understanding of political issues such as the economy then you shouldn't be allowed to vote? That would prevent any incorrect perceptions from having any impact. You'd get a lot less reactionary populism as well. Plus it would spell the absolute end for Labour so it would be good news all round.

[Webbo]

l444ry, would you seriously trust Ed Milliband and Labour with the economy?

 

Even if you hate the Conservatives, who are the better option?

It's pointless trying to argue with L4ry, he lives to hate, he's immune to any kind of debate.

[l444ry]

It's pointless trying to argue with L4ry, he lives to hate, he's immune to any kind of debate.

Shame you feel that way Webbo. Certainly don't live to hate, that's stupid. I'll "debate" with anyone. Hard though on Foxestalk as I'm not interested in trying to convert Tories spouting their nonsense. Had 50 years of it and their arguments are just the same..................always the fault of Johnny Foreigner, EEC ruling us, Blacks, Gays, Unions. Shallow "dabating" then and just the same now!   

[l444ry]

l444ry, would you seriously trust Ed Milliband and Labour with the economy?

 

Even if you hate the Conservatives, who are the better option?

As the late great Tony Benn once said, "I always believed with a Labour Government that, even when we made mistakes, which we often did, we were still trying to serve the country! Whereas I always felt with a Tory Government, that they felt they were ruling over the country. There IS a difference." 

[Zingari]

They have proved Ed Balls and a collection of left wing economists wrong. We were told there'd be mast unemployment, unemployment has gone down. we were told there was going to be a triple dip recession, we didn't even have a double dip recession.

 

When things started to turn around you and others told us that it was all a con, the govt were making up statistics and things were actually getting worse. At least now you seem to accept that we have actually got a recovery.

 

If these policies had failed we'd have told it was all the Tories fault, now because growth is up , inflation and unemployment is down we're told that it's just a lucky coincidence, it's the world economy that's recovered, nothing to do with the govt at all. You can't have it both ways.

Firstly i don't think i have accepted or  am totally convinced yet there is a "recovery",  as i put the word in apostrophes .  Sorry if that was a bit misleading . 

 

Secondly I'm not a labour supporter either and I want the country and "all" the people in to do well regardless of which party is steering the boat at the time, and i'm not looking for the tories to fail or  blame anyone so i can  say "I told you so".  I want success as much as anyone  . If labour were in i'd be just as skeptical but just as hopeful.

 

It seems to me that both tory and labour supporters want each other to fail  rather than succeed just because of dogmatic  political affiliation.  Yes labour are doing the braying now and looking silly , but the tories did it under labour during their purple patch and looked just as bad. Do you see  what i mean? Things are bound to turn around again and the boo hissing starts all over.

 

Any "recovery" is from a very very low point so i really think its too early to say how long lasting  , although it's not looking too bad and hopefully it will continue.

 But I've seen all these "recoveries" and booms before ( most spectacularly and long lasting under Brown's stewardship) Presumably you were a tory voter  back then and found reasons to question the reasons for his success  . Or were you praising his wonderful successes at the time ?

 

But apart from all that, the issue i find the most contentious is the continued juxtaposing of the disabilty and unemployed austerity measures alongside the upturn in the economy . It leads many to believe that the two things are connected and that the austerity measures which are aimed primarily at the most vulnerable are in some way responsible for the upturn. 

Even moosey has reluctantly admitted that they aren't and it's down to other factors .The kicking of the peasants is no more than a sideshow for the braying hordes.