Simo86 Posted 8 April 2014 Posted 8 April 2014 With the Masters only a couple of days away who is everyone going to be backing? I've gone for Dustin Johnson 25/1 Keegan Bradley 40/1 Jordan Spieth 50/1 Ryan Moore 100/1 Stephen Gallacher 200/1
Ric Flair Posted 8 April 2014 Posted 8 April 2014 Wide open this year as the top players aren't showing any real form so far this season. That said, Augusta is a course that players with a track record there often produce time and time again. I've had Snedeker in mind all year and was worried he was well out of sorts but recently he's shown an up turn in form and he's proven he plays some of his best golf in on the biggest stage. He is yet to win a major and has a couple of collapses to his name, such as The Open in 2012 and The Masters last year, but so have many of the best golfers in years gone by. It's the players who can put themselves in with a chance of competing for majors going down the closing stretch that will eventually win them. Adam Scott was a nearly man on several occasions and finally he's got that first major last year here. Sneds is 35/1 and although that's not massive, if I was still gambling i'd be putting together dough from all over the ochie to load up on him. I put togeteher my thoughts a few weeks ago in the golf thread, which i'll copy and paste in to here. Things may have changed slightly but the traits to become a member of the green jacket elite is, you need to hit the ball a long way, you don't necessarily need to be accurate but if you're going to be wayward with drives then you need a decent iron game and obviously a very good short game. If you like to look at stats when making your selections then go on the PGA Tour website and thumb your way through the section on there. Strokes gained on putting will give you a good pointer as to whose in form with the putter this season. A long shot Sang-Moon Bae is one of the best at the minute with the flat stick and has long been thought of as a major winner, he's 250/1 if you fancy a wild punt. Matt Every who recently won at Bay Hill, is 150/1 and he is a sensational putter. His stats on par 5's is very strong too, something that is a factor at Augusta. I think McDowell will be in amongst them this year but i'd be more confident with him in the top ten market, he's been vocal in the past about him not having the game for Augusta but that's rubbish. He hits it a good distance, he's great from 110 yards in and has the heart of a warrior. He will fight until the death and scramble his way around if eneds be. He's had a few top 15 finishes here before so i'm confident he's due a top 10 at least. You can usually write off all debutants, but as i've said this year has been a strange one on the US Tour. Lots of rookies and journeymen winning. The fact Jimmy Walker has won 3 times in a couple of months bearing in mind he was the serial bottler is bonkers. Patrick Reed, Harris English and Victor Dubuisson are all debutants who have the ability and game to tame this beast if they can rip up the history book. Westwood has minimal form, Donald has shown flashes of his usual self and Justin Rose seems to be back to full fitness but there's never much value in English players even though our recent record in majors is horrendous.
Ric Flair Posted 8 April 2014 Posted 8 April 2014 Not sure why but i'm convinced that Marc Leishman and Angel Cabrera are going to have big weeks before Augusta coming up. 80/1 and 200/1 respectively is massive odds and although i'm not punting I think they'll go well. Leishman is in ok form this season and will start to turn it up before going back to Augusta where he did so well last year. Bay Hill will suit his game and if his putter is as hot as it can be then I think he'll be in the top half a dozen. Cabrera has been shocking all season but that never seems to bother Pato, he'll turn up when he fancies it and I sense he'll want to see what he's got in the locker ahead of The Masters once again. If he can keep the ball in play then Bay Hill will be a much easier prospect for him. I am monitoring Sang Moon-Bae a lot this season as the lad is vastly talented and if he could just find some sort of consistency then he'll rip it up. He is threatening some magical golf this season but can't seem to keep it together for 4 whole rounds, something he's struggled with for 18 months now. Mind you he's still managed a couple of wins. Brandt Snedeker is another whose form has got to turn soon surely? He was 90/1 for a fairly mediocre tournament the other week which astounded me, the bookies proved to be right as he didn't perform at all but I found it highly surprising. Bookies don't tend to offer such generous prices for places with a track record that Snedeker has had in recent seasons purely because they know that his form will return at some point and don't want to be stung with a big price win. He's 66/1 this week and i've got him in mind to go well at Augusta this season after a few near misses there. He'll want some confidence in his game going in to the major so it's worth keeping a close eye on his game in the next few weeks. Talking of The Masters I was obviously massively lucky to take the chance on Leishman last year at 400/1 and I would be tempted with him again this year but he'll have been cut 3-4 times that i'd suspect. His game is perfect for the place. He's long and accurate off the tee, his iron play is the strongest part of his game and he's a very streaky putter. If it's right on the week then he's a big player. You could question whether he's got the mentality to close out such a big tournament but last year will have done him the world of good. I am also extremely confident that Bubba Watson will go very close to a 2nd green jacket. He is in some of the best form of his career, which seemed to go a bit sour in the months after he won back in 2012. He had a fairly mediocre year by his standards in 2013 but showed signs of improvement towards the end of the year and has gone bang again this season. He should have won The Pheonix Open and I was furious he seemed to bottle it but he proved it was just a mistake by winning just a couple of weeks later. He's since had another 2nd place finish at Doral which is an incredibly difficult course like Augusta and he'd be my big bet of the tournament if I was still gambling. I'll be researching The Masters much more in the coming weeks. The new kids Harris English and Jordan Spieth intrigue me but Augusta has proven in the past that experience is usually key. Bubba, Leishman, Snedeker, DJ & G-Mac have all got the criteria for me.
SOCCERROO FOX Posted 8 April 2014 Posted 8 April 2014 Snedeker was coming back from a wrist injury (I think it was wrist) hence a few bad tournaments but his last tournament was an 8th. He has a good record at Augusta, a record that has comparisings to Scotts prior to last year. $45 on the exchange is good enough for me. Was really in contention until his last round last year which has people questioning him mentally to finish off if right in it come the Sunday. Kuchar has a good record too, i don't like the way he bottled it on the weekend tho. Scott and Day have tremendous records at Augusta and can't be over looked. Bit worried that Jase hasn't paid for some time following a thumb injury tho. Couple of roughies, Brandon Grace hasn't had the best lead in form but an 18th first look isn't anything to sneeze at especially considering he shot a 78 first round. 7/1 for a top 20 finish seems juicy odds to me. Scott Stallings his recent form worries me but is a good putter and has a great scrambling game. Has won this year and then failed to make every cut. Has had one start a few years back for a 27th. His a lot better golfer now and is huge odds. I also don't mind Gary Woodland this week just think he has the game to contest aswell. Has had one look for a 24th. Not 100% decided on my bets but as you can see i will be favouring blokes that have played on the course as history shows no debutant has won at Augusta for a long time.
ScouseFox Posted 8 April 2014 Posted 8 April 2014 backing gary delaet for obvious reasons and would've backed chris wood too but he's not playing (i don't think?). will have a read and think about who to back seriously tomorrow.
Donut Posted 9 April 2014 Posted 9 April 2014 I tend to do my posting in the golf betting thread, but as its a special week in the golfing calendar, we have a dedicated thread which im loving. Its been a bizarre PGA Tour season. The new wraparound format has allowed unheralded players like Jimmy Walker and Patrick Reed, whilst highly talented, surprisingly ride the crest of a wave and rise to the top end of the Fedex cup rankings while a combination of injuries and flat our poor play have had many of the more established names coming into Augusta scratching their head. Id be cautious about backing Augusta rookies. Put simply, they dont mix. Augusta is the kind of layout where "local knowledge" counts for a lot. Knowing your layups, knowing the flat spots on greens, knowing where you can miss a green and give yourself a chance of an up and down. Its not a course that is overly punishing off the tee, but youd better be good from 100 and in at Augusta, and putt the dots off it if youre going to lift a green jacket. There are a few players in looking at this week, all of which i can make a case for, and all of which come with a large BUT after their name..... Phil Mickelson at 12/1 (outright). The BUT is obvious, he has no form. But Mickelson has never carried any baggage, and it never surprises me to see him miss a cut, brush it off and win the week after. Add that to the fact he is an Augusta specialist, and he is always a danger. Showed some promising signs in Houston at the Shell where the swing looked in better order, and has always had the ability to conjure the spectacular when needed. The drive down magnolia lane will do all the firing up he needs. Jason Day at 16/1 (outright). Close to a major breakthrough, and winning the WGC matchplay shows the major credentials are there. A solid all round game and makes lots of birdies, but may come into the Masters undercooked after a thumb injury. The PGA Tour is in an Australian streak though, and there is every chance Day may break through at Augusta. Sergio Garcia at 22/1. Has a chequered Augusta history with a low amateur, top tens, and cuts. Has vastly improved his short game statistics over the past 12 months, and is now ranked 32nd in strokes gained putting on tour and first in scrambling. Combine that with his quality ball striking, and youve got a major winner on your hands? Well....not quite, as time and time again Sergio has struggled to cross the line on sundays, and carries serious major scar tissue. Made the admission at last years Masters he didnt have the game to win a major, a strange admission for such a talent. Zach Johnson at 28/1. Almost a forgotten past champion, Johnson is metronomic with his wedges, which he demonstrated in taking apart the par 5s in his win. Align that to his superb putting ability, he should be in and around the lead on Sunday. Has really rode a hot 6 months as well taking down Tiger at the Chevron, and a win in Hawaii. Masters record since winning however seems strangely poor, which may be down to the extra length added to the course. A player id fancy if the going got tough. I havent backed any of the newcomers because simply put, they usually play poorly, but id suggest the best value on a debutant would be Harris English at 60/1. Youll be seeing him winning a lot more over the coming years. He hits his irons incredibly well, you can tell by the noise live. And the stats bear that out, English is ranked 1st in greens in regulation on tour. Put that with a guy who can move it out there 300 yards off the tee and rank 4th in scoring average, youre looking at what can only be described as a wonderkid. Who knows what could happen with a hot putting week. Another bet that might be worth a small stake is first round leader on Fred Couples at 80/1. Freddie wont keep it going for 4 days. But hes still got a 66 in him and in recent years has been in and around the lead after 36. A hot round on thursday isnt out of the question with a morning tee time. Cant wait for it all to kick off
Ric Flair Posted 9 April 2014 Posted 9 April 2014 I tend to do my posting in the golf betting thread, but as its a special week in the golfing calendar, we have a dedicated thread which im loving. Its been a bizarre PGA Tour season. The new wraparound format has allowed unheralded players like Jimmy Walker and Patrick Reed, whilst highly talented, surprisingly ride the crest of a wave and rise to the top end of the Fedex cup rankings while a combination of injuries and flat our poor play have had many of the more established names coming into Augusta scratching their head. Id be cautious about backing Augusta rookies. Put simply, they dont mix. Augusta is the kind of layout where "local knowledge" counts for a lot. Knowing your layups, knowing the flat spots on greens, knowing where you can miss a green and give yourself a chance of an up and down. Its not a course that is overly punishing off the tee, but youd better be good from 100 and in at Augusta, and putt the dots off it if youre going to lift a green jacket. There are a few players in looking at this week, all of which i can make a case for, and all of which come with a large BUT after their name..... Phil Mickelson at 12/1 (outright). The BUT is obvious, he has no form. But Mickelson has never carried any baggage, and it never surprises me to see him miss a cut, brush it off and win the week after. Add that to the fact he is an Augusta specialist, and he is always a danger. Showed some promising signs in Houston at the Shell where the swing looked in better order, and has always had the ability to conjure the spectacular when needed. The drive down magnolia lane will do all the firing up he needs. Jason Day at 16/1 (outright). Close to a major breakthrough, and winning the WGC matchplay shows the major credentials are there. A solid all round game and makes lots of birdies, but may come into the Masters undercooked after a thumb injury. The PGA Tour is in an Australian streak though, and there is every chance Day may break through at Augusta. Sergio Garcia at 22/1. Has a chequered Augusta history with a low amateur, top tens, and cuts. Has vastly improved his short game statistics over the past 12 months, and is now ranked 32nd in strokes gained putting on tour and first in scrambling. Combine that with his quality ball striking, and youve got a major winner on your hands? Well....not quite, as time and time again Sergio has struggled to cross the line on sundays, and carries serious major scar tissue. Made the admission at last years Masters he didnt have the game to win a major, a strange admission for such a talent. Zach Johnson at 28/1. Almost a forgotten past champion, Johnson is metronomic with his wedges, which he demonstrated in taking apart the par 5s in his win. Align that to his superb putting ability, he should be in and around the lead on Sunday. Has really rode a hot 6 months as well taking down Tiger at the Chevron, and a win in Hawaii. Masters record since winning however seems strangely poor, which may be down to the extra length added to the course. A player id fancy if the going got tough. I havent backed any of the newcomers because simply put, they usually play poorly, but id suggest the best value on a debutant would be Harris English at 60/1. Youll be seeing him winning a lot more over the coming years. He hits his irons incredibly well, you can tell by the noise live. And the stats bear that out, English is ranked 1st in greens in regulation on tour. Put that with a guy who can move it out there 300 yards off the tee and rank 4th in scoring average, youre looking at what can only be described as a wonderkid. Who knows what could happen with a hot putting week. Another bet that might be worth a small stake is first round leader on Fred Couples at 80/1. Freddie wont keep it going for 4 days. But hes still got a 66 in him and in recent years has been in and around the lead after 36. A hot round on thursday isnt out of the question with a morning tee time. Cant wait for it all to kick off Is it English or Reed who went to college in Georgia and have played Augusta several times on invites there? Might give them a bit more of a helping hand than the usual mob of debutants. Jonas Blixt at 300/1 is criminal odds. He'll go well.
Ric Flair Posted 9 April 2014 Posted 9 April 2014 Put my money on Jason Day & Matt Every this year. Every got a massive win at Bay Hill last month, gunning down Adam Scott who seemed to have it wrapped up wire to wore but was poor on the Sunday and Matt nailed him. If you look at Every's stats on par 5's and his strokes gained you'll see two very key trends needed for Augusta. Zach Johnson won in 2007 purely by taking the par 5's apart and playing steady on the rest of the holes. Can Every do the same? He's not played since his win a few weeks ago which could go two ways, he's either fresh and psyched to push on now he's got that win under his belt and a big win too in a top event. Or he'll be slightly rusty and will see this week as a bonus after his win and knowing he's already having his best season of his career. At 150/1 though there's definite value, likewise in last weeks winner Matt Jones. A perrenial nearly man during last season he's finally got the win and in similar fashion to Every where he's took advantage of a big gun (Kuchar) wobbling on the final day and it just goes to show that previous wins count for little when trying to close out another win later down the line, there's more to it than that. Strange season so far.
Donut Posted 9 April 2014 Posted 9 April 2014 Is it English or Reed who went to college in Georgia and have played Augusta several times on invites there? Might give them a bit more of a helping hand than the usual mob of debutants. Jonas Blixt at 300/1 is criminal odds. He'll go well. English was a Georgia Bulldog collegeate player, that was common knowledge, before his emergence onto the web.com tour (and subsequent win as an amateur there). Digging a little deeper though, i didnt realise English had already played a number of rounds as a collegeate player at Augusta. He details it in the Augusta Chronicle from monday 7th of April, and says he feels "very comfortable" on the course. Guys, this guy could be manna from heaven for you if he plays well as an each way.
Ric Flair Posted 9 April 2014 Posted 9 April 2014 English was a Georgia Bulldog collegeate player, that was common knowledge, before his emergence onto the web.com tour (and subsequent win as an amateur there). Digging a little deeper though, i didnt realise English had already played a number of rounds as a collegeate player at Augusta. He details it in the Augusta Chronicle from monday 7th of April, and says he feels "very comfortable" on the course. Guys, this guy could be manna from heaven for you if he plays well as an each way. Yeah, if I was still gambling I'd be loading up.
SOCCERROO FOX Posted 10 April 2014 Posted 10 April 2014 Donut and Flair thoughts on Hideki Matsuyama? So far I have Snedeker e.w, Grace and Stallings top 20. As always with the Masters I have zero confidence as anyone can win it. Will be cheering on the Aussies that's for sure and would blow my load if Jase Day won it.
Ric Flair Posted 10 April 2014 Posted 10 April 2014 Donut and Flair thoughts on Hideki Matsuyama? So far I have Snedeker e.w, Grace and Stallings top 20. As always with the Masters I have zero confidence as anyone can win it. Will be cheering on the Aussies that's for sure and would blow my load if Jase Day won it. Matsuyama is on my list pal. Played here twice already in previous years as an amateur and nearly got top 20 in both. His odds are very good too, especially when most debutants are much less. He's been quite bullish in the media this week about his chances, we've seen nothing fazes him in majors when he got a top 10 in the US Open at Merion last year. Go for it Roo!!! I am mustard for Moon-Bae at 250s though
Donut Posted 10 April 2014 Posted 10 April 2014 Donut and Flair thoughts on Hideki Matsuyama? So far I have Snedeker e.w, Grace and Stallings top 20. As always with the Masters I have zero confidence as anyone can win it. Will be cheering on the Aussies that's for sure and would blow my load if Jase Day won it. Hideki Matsuyama is a great pick. Already had some good success at the Masters with a low amateur performance and is certainly not lacking in confidence. Ive not had chance to have a look at him live, but i have heard from pundits that he does have a somewhat hot temper which hopefully wont be an issue in his career. Looking for his first top 10 since Phoenix and hasnt played any events post Doral, so hopefully he wont be chipping the rust off. All in all, he is a very impressive player though and a solid pick.
Hirsty The Blue 94 Posted 10 April 2014 Posted 10 April 2014 Kuchar 22/1Duffner 40/1Donald 60/1Stricker 66/1Had Stricker in every major for the last 5 years, he has teased me too may times but I know the one time I don't back him he will fvcking win! Had a few quid each way on these then will pick someone else out after the cut who is looking good.
SOCCERROO FOX Posted 10 April 2014 Posted 10 April 2014 Glad i left him alone to be honest. Sneds did well but made a few poor bogeys and Gracey had an absolute mare.
Ric Flair Posted 11 April 2014 Posted 11 April 2014 Blixt played well yesterday, loads of birdies but too many bogeys really. Still nicely placed. Snedeker too.
ScouseFox Posted 11 April 2014 Posted 11 April 2014 bubba taking the piss here, birdied 12, 13, 14, 15 & 16 to be on -8 and 4 shots clear.
Ric Flair Posted 12 April 2014 Posted 12 April 2014 Ridiculous golf from Bubba. If Blixt or Snedeker can't do it then I don't mind if Bubba does. Got him in a major sweep so happy if he does.
Hirsty The Blue 94 Posted 12 April 2014 Posted 12 April 2014 Had a few quid this morning on Bjorn E/W at 25/1, was playing really nicely yesterday. Out of my original suggestions only the Kuch is in with a sniff of a place.
Ric Flair Posted 12 April 2014 Posted 12 April 2014 I'd test the water with a Olesen in play bet, maybe even low round of the day. He did this last year so it's worth a nibble.
Donut Posted 12 April 2014 Posted 12 April 2014 Well, seeing as everyone we talked up and discussed at length has either missed the cut or is sweeping dew this morning, i guess anything i suggest from now on needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. I do like the Thomas Bjorn each way that was mentionned. He's an aggressive player, i dont see him backing off over the weekend and 25/1 seems great. Theres some sentimental value in there too, i think for him to win a major would be fnatastic considering the career he has had.
ScouseFox Posted 12 April 2014 Posted 12 April 2014 wtf did gary woodland have for tea last night?! 7 under through 10.
TrentFox Posted 12 April 2014 Posted 12 April 2014 Not that I'm biased just because he's one of our ex-clients, but come on Jonas !!!!!
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