st albans fox

There were reports earlier today that the Israeli’s had made noises that their attacks would be over in a few days and if Iran stops then they would also stop (but I think Iran also has to agree to enter meaningful negotiations with USA and E3 re no enrichment - enter putin stage left ).

Looks like a) symbolic and a limited attack on equipment taking care to avoid any injuries to deaths (and possibly intercepted by defences).

Qatar close their airspace expecting an attack from Iran towards USA bases probably if Iran have decided to respond this way then it will either be a) symbolic and a limited attack on equipment taking care to avoid any injuries to deaths (and possibly intercepted by defences). b) not the above and they’ve decided to go for broke with a notable barrage on the basis that they calculate that trump will not want to get involved in a proper war. this shows their population and others in the region that they will stand against ‘the real Satan’. They may well be worried about the Iranian population beginning to protest against them.

We need an unsure/not bothered option stan !

Bottled it (again ) gonna be so tough to get that monkey off his back now

My sentiments exactly hopefully he can get over the line - at least it’s not a major so the pressure is a tad lower

Doesn't seem to have been particularly effective since Thursday as the barrages of 20/30 missiles continue to be launched. (Admittedly less barrages each day but that could be a tactical call ).

Russia and china have strategic agreements with Iran Russia won’t get involved - in fact they’re probably hoping the straits of Hormuz become compromised because a rise in oil prices is great for them. china is the interesting one for me - behind most of the geo political decisions being made by trump is the USA/china relationship. we won’t see anyone becoming militarily involved in support of Iran (n Korea is the joker here but let’s assume he stays within his box), but china will not like their regional influence being affected. it should also be noted that Hezbollah have so far refused to become involved - under pressure from Lebanese govt and also their self interest not to be destroyed. This force was created by Iran as a deterrent to being attacked by Isr.

You’d explain the important stuff to be sited at the deepest levels. sky showed a satellite image from yesterday showing a long line of trucks at the facility- could have been bringing stuff in from less secure facilities or taking stuff out that they wanted to put somewhere less known to the Americans. the isr seem to have good intelligence within the Iranian establishment - reckon they’ll know how much damage has been done within a week. can’t see how this ends swiftly though because the Iranians won’t negotiate to have no enrichment on their territory and that’s currently the American starting point.

why did he wait the extra few days? to give Iran time to remove what they wanted/needed to? to give time to his air force to get things in place and for bases in the region to get additional defences in place ? to allow Friday’s meeting to take place and Iran to make a change to their position ?

someone on sky news actually said something intuitive this morning if Iran can keep making these 20/30 salvo barrages each day (of which 2 or 3 are statistically getting through defences), then Isr population will tire of this before the Iranian authorities (their population doesn’t have enough influence to change policy). Whilst isr public opinion was split re existing wars in the region it is strongly supportive of the Iran strikes. After several weeks of rushing to bomb shelters several times a day this could easily dissipate, especially if Iran’s ‘immediate nuke threat’ has been removed. Also, does anyone seriously believe that if Iran has enriched uranium between 60/90%, then it hasn’t removed some of it to somewhere secret ahead of possible American destruction of known sites ???

Luckily there’s another four years till they’d get a chance

This ignores that wealthy people spend lots of money (supporting the economy and contributing lots of vat) - if you can ignore the property bubble at the top which they create then surely we’re better having them here rather than them being elsewhere. ????

What an incredible tackle - what goes through a players head to do that ???

Can’t see how anything occurring in the lowest levels of the troposphere can tell us definitively about emissions making it into the stratosphere?

Precisely based on actual readings of the tree rings we don’t have actual readings in the stratosphere prior to the mid seventies and only detailed readings post 1990.

Some strategic chatter that Russia may use trump’s delay to take a lead on trying to negotiate with Iran However, I think Iran will send a message via the talks today in Geneva what they are willing to accept if there is a ceasefire and talks with the USA can happen. Whether that will be enough is the question.

I’ll check with the Iranians 😉

I’ll take 20’s

We have legit numbers going back 50 years max (and probably only thirty years in detail) I’m not happy about modelling back 125/150 years before then when there are already sig changes ongoing during the period that the data is available which presumably could skew the observed relationships. appreciate that this is what models are used for but I don’t have the confidence in this particular study - the stratosphere is a fairly new area of scientific study

This is basically my question what odds on that ??

I would have thought that the name of the protesters is enough ? the British govt will not disclose what our planes are doing out of Akrotiri. We can be pretty sure that neither the Americans or the Isr’s (shortened to avoid mod approval as not a controversial point ) need British help to monitor what’s going on across the Mid East. If we are flying across areas and taking images then it’s so we have our own info on what’s happening rather than relying on others.

Odds on Vance being president before nov 2028?

Not too sure about using models to estimate temp changes in the stratosphere going back to pre Industrial Revolution. Pretty sure we’ve only had actual mid/upper strat temps taken since around 1975 (and pre satellite data these were well spread). (I stand to be corrected on that). So we’re relying on models to go back more than 100 years using recent relationships between trop temp profiles and their relationship with Strat ones. (Past fifty years). Btw, NAS needs to keep out of the way of the MAGA’s !

Sad you didn’t get at least one laugh for this