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Everything posted by Gerard
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Not only were Leicester always playing before Spurs but they were also fluking last-minute wins during the final couple of months We scored an 89th minute winner versus Norwich in February, the Ulloa "earthquake" goal. After that the latest we scored a winner was the 66th minute versus Sunderland in a 2-0 win.
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If they win their last six that puts them on 96pts, that means Leeds would have to win their next three games to finish above them. We would need 8pts from four to beat them on GD. It's tough but it's doable.
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Being too positive? We had a bad midweek but so did both our rivals, guarantee we all think we've blown it this week and only one of the three will be right come season end. It's pointless looking back and what might have been, we have 3pts from our last two games, Leeds and Ipswich have 1pt each from their last two games. We don't have to be world beaters just better than one of them two. We dust ourselves down and go again on Friday and I'm quietly confident we win and put pressure on the pair of them at the weekend,
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I would suggest that the midweek results were slightly favourable for us, pre match implied chances of winning were: Leeds 75% Ipswich 67% Leicester 58% Both our rivals failed to win at home to mid table teams, solitary points don't really get the job done when your heavy favourites. Yesterday we needed 5 wins to guarantee promotion, tonight we now need four. It's another game ticked off and we're still top of the league with a game in hand. Also remember we just need to avoid finishing bottom of this three team mini league, we're still very much in the box seat and have room for error.
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Before tonight we needed 5 wins or 4 wins and 2 draws to guarantee promotion. Tonight we need 4 wins to guarantee promotion. Performance was poor but not that much has changed, I'd argue tonight was worse for Leeds than us. Leeds were an implied 75% chance to win pre match, we were 58%. Solitary points don't count for much at this stage, Leeds will be more gutted tonight than us.
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By the betting exchanges odds converted into probability. Of course we can only do our own job and seven wins makes the rest irrelevant but for today to be considered a good day a win is not enough, we have to see at least one of Ipswich or Leeds drop points.
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Implied chances of winning tomorrow on the betting: Leicester 74% Leeds 49% Ipswich 38% It will only be a good day if we win and at least one of the other two don't, if all three win we'll have had the worst day.
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This sounds like your wife deciding to go to Tenerife instead of the Maldives this year when you've just explained to her you've lost your job, you're overdraft and credit cards are maxed out and you can't pay the bills or mortgage this month.
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You can't keep going to the wire and expect last minute winners. Ipswich have been tremendous at that this season but they're gutsy and most importantly that's good variance more than any other factor. There will be Leeds and Ipswich fans looking at their fixtures and our fixtures thinking it's a two horse race between them two as we'll be first. The truth is that it's all to play for and all three of us are likely to drop a good few points between now and the end.
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Well we have a lot of outs. We have the best run in. We're favourites to finish first. If we don't finish first we're favourites to finish second. If we finish third we're favourites for the play offs. Enjoy the ride.
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Incredibly frustrating for both Ipswich & Leeds to get last minute winners but we're still the favourites out of the three. Our fixtures look very good with 4 home games and 3 very winnable away games.
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it's not the worst result with a point against one of the play off hopefuls away from home.A point gained on third today and another game less to catch us.
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840's matched on Betfair. It won't just be the Ipswich fans who are gutted today.
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I have to remind myself we won away from home tonight, that Ipswich comeback is so deflating that it feels like we conceded a last minute equaliser.
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Switched it on after our game and Ipswich were 2-1 down and just about to take a free kick, I watched about 7 mins and in that time Ipswich scored twice and missed a penalty. You have to hand it to them, they seem to do this every other week.
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We have some absolute screaming fannies in our fan base, Probably the only time they do scream at the football.
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I have to be honest that one "40 yard hoof up the field" we did is the only thing I enjoyed about this match. Stoke had 34, there fans will be buzzing tonight.
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Five goals is all well and good away from home but I'd like to see us play long balls over the top and 4-4-2 with proper full backs who can defend, two wingers who hug the touchline and get crosses in to the big CF who either scores with his head or knocks it down for the little man.
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He's 29 in August, sell on clause is worth buttons as he would be in his 30's by the time he was sold anyway.
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Reminds of this one though not football related.
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I'm very relaxed about this, I really can't see us selling arguably the best player in the Championship for £30m in the January window. If someone wanted him desperately and were offering too good to refuse money then yes but £30m isn't it. If we want to sell for whatever reason we'd still get something around that in the summer. We're only 8pts ahead of third with 18 to play, no way do we put that in jeopardy for what is a reasonable fair offer but no more. In the summer then maybe but not now for a player who is integral to us.
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Also a player who has all but agreed a transfer will not be giving his all knowing he's off after that game.
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I must have missed those "outstanding" games. I've never once seen him on the pitch and thought he looked the best player or a cut above the rest. I could say that about 6-8 of our players at some point this season but not Casadei. Bad timing but not a huge loss, he was the player I wanted most this summer as he looked to have excellent pedigree but he's been a real disappointment considering he's just won the Golden Ball and Boot in the recent U20 World Cup. I'm quite happy to say he'll peak as an adequate PL player and no more and you'll be able to count on one hand how many Italy caps he wins if he ever gets capped at all.
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Goodbye sweet prince.