blaaklint

interestingly, their xga is worse than leeds - but burnley have an excellent keeper (and have gotten quite lucky), whereas leeds have meslier (who is decidedly meh)

A lot of those players won't have made enough appearances - I assume the stat requires a certain percentage of minutes played.

Ruud van Nistelrooy

The finishing is just natural variation, not something that's really controllable. There are very few players in the world who consistently score more than their xG.

The pass to Vardy deflected off a Brighton player I think.

Fotmob have us with an xG of 1.67. As far as I can tell, a big chance is > 0.1xG, so really not very big.

I was amazed Dalot didn't get a yellow card, brought Abdul down four or five times after he'd gone past.

Yeah I was convinced play was being called back to give them a penalty - no idea how it wasn't given.

Vestergaard was our most succesful player last season (with other 180 mins) for aerial wins: 72.3% vs Coady's 66.7% and Faes 55.7%. Very small sample numbers but this year Okoli has only won 37.5%. I think Vestergaard just looks worse when he gets beaten because he's so tall.

Nearly £13k per minute

I think the comment about Mads is a concern for me. It's clear he loves being involved in possession - if he doesn't get to do so, that might be an incentive for him to seriously consider offers.

For challenges against players dribbling, he's at 62.8% success (45th in the league). Decent, but behind Doyle (71.1%), Faes (69.0%) and JJ (64.0%). Sidenote: didn't expect Doyle's success rate to be so high, and thought JJ would be higher since both Enzo and Rodgers thought he was the best 1-on-1 defender at the club.

You're right, I put this the wrong way around. In situations like this, they actually calculate the probability that you didn't score. In the example I put, that would be (1 - 0.8) * (1 - 0.5) = 0.1 probability of not scoring. xG would then be given as 0.9 Your three tap-ins example would be 1 - 0.6^3 = 0.78 xG

No, most xG models take this into account. If you have a 0.8 chance then a 0.5 rebound, the total xG given (at least by Opta) would be 0.8 * 0 5 = 0.4

It's not far off par, in the Championship about 40-45% of big chances are scored on average. So maybe an assist or two more would be fairer, but it's within the right ballpark.

Somehow played both one of his best matches and one of his worst matches, but in the same performance? Got done on the dribble probably four or five times and gave the ball away in some horrible situations, but also made two or three of the best blocks I've ever seen

But its been shown that narrowing the angle and closing down the shot only really works from a) less than 14 yards and b) relatively central positions. From slightly wider and further out positions, engaging the attacker has a negative impact on likelihood of a save. If Mads wants to narrow the angle, then he needs to commit to it fully instead of dropping and then deciding to do so. IMO though, I think if he backs off that it would take a significantly better finish from Carvalho to beat him. Engage and react, which is what Mads does, is the worst strategy in virtually all scenarios. https://x.com/Jhdharrison1/status/1273312389233082369?s=20

Mahrez

I'm not normally critical of Mads, but I don't think he had a great match. Obviously, the penalty save is fantastic - but he made life very difficult for himself with both of Hull's goals. For the first, after Faes loses the ball, Mads backs off towards goal and then stops. Carvalho's first touch isn't great, it kind of gets stuck under his feet and takes him off at a poor angle, and he's put under pressure fairly quickly by Wout. In that situation, Mads needs to back off completely to give himself reaction time. Instead he gets trapped in no-man's land: not close enough to Carvalho to spread and make himself big, and not far enough away to give himself the best chance. For the second, Zaroury hits it hard and low but it's not particularly in the corner. Mads isn't set well when the shot is taken. I think he'll be very disappointed he didn't get across quicker and would normally expect to save that shot. Forgive me if this is unfairly harsh, but I've recently been reading a lot about goalkeeping and thought I might as well try and put that knowledge to good use.

+67, which is a long way clear of us atm.

Here's a (not) fun stat: in the league over the last three seasons, KDH has put exactly one shot on target with his right foot.

You made me curious so I had a look. In the Championship, he's on 1 goal from 0.97xG. The goal he scored vs Swansea was a decent finish from an okay chance; the only good chance he's missed (and has had all season) was against Sunderland (0.39xG). He finishes alright, but he just doesn't get into dangerous areas whatsoever - which tbh is far more concerning. When it comes to creating chances, he's not great either. Creates 1.76 chances per 90 by passing - pretty decent - but they're universally pretty poor quality chances. Good dribbler, but doesn't dribble often, and his defensive numbers are somewhere between meh and bad. https://www.fotmob.com/en-GB/players/845991/yunus-akgun

Every year, each club has to provide info for the EFL to make a projection for losses for the period ending next season. The EFL decided to do ours in November, over four months before we are required to provide them with said information. It's hardly a technicality; they've completely misapplied their own rules.

Our team atm scores more and concedes fewer, so at least on paper the answer is fairly straightforward. I'm not sure its that easy to answer though.

That ball has been one of our best weapons this season and both Wilf and Praet love that run, but Abdul keeps on overhitting it when he wasn't previously.