Labour ahead of Tories says ICM poll.

[Buce]

Well, well.

Maybe wearing a 'smart' suit is not so important, after all:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/new-poll-puts-labour-ahead-of-tories-for-first-time-since-jeremy-corbyn-became-leader-a6937926.html

[Guest MattP]

Think that's the definition of "rogue poll"

Most of them at the minute have the Tories between a 7-10 PT lead, guess we'll find out for sure though in May, if Labour lose control of Wales (likely) and councils across England he's a dead man walking.

Although it should be said % isn't that important, it's the swing seats that win elections.

[Buce]

Think that's the definition of "rogue poll"

Most of them at the minute have the Tories between a 7-10 PT lead, guess we'll find out for sure though in May, if Labour lose control of Wales (likely) and councils across England he's a dead man walking.

Although it should be said % isn't that important, it's the swing seats that win elections.

It's the second such result in a week.

I guess that's two rogue polls..

[Guest MattP]

It's the second such result in a week.

I guess that's two rogue polls..

 

As rogue as they get.

 

[Richmondfox]

I take yougov polls regarding parties in the lead with a pinch of salt.  I find that Labour supporters (Momentum, socialist workers, young people etc) are more vocal and active on these fronts than conservatives supporters. 

 

I find that on social media if you support the conservatives, like I do (I'm from Thunrby Lodge so Vaz has put me off Labour before before the Blair mess)  you will tend to get shot down or insulted by 'right on' friends and their fellow comrades into silence.

[Guest Sharpe's Fox]

Only way is up for JC. Matt says he's a dead man walking after May but I think the only way he will is if he wants to, apparently he's enjoying the job more than he thought he would and if he thinks his job of transforming the party isn't done he won't bow out. Labours "first 11" know they won't get anywhere if they start acting up and JC is automatically on that ballot paper come a leadership challenge.

[Guest MattP]

I take yougov polls regarding parties in the lead with a pinch of salt.  I find that Labour supporters (Momentum, socialist workers, young people etc) are more vocal and active on these fronts than conservatives supporters. 

 

I find that on social media if you support the conservatives, like I do (I'm from Thunrby Lodge so Vaz has put me off Labour before before the Blair mess)  you will tend to get shot down or insulted by 'right on' friends and their fellow comrades into silence.

 

Twitter is a left wing echo chamber, just stay off it.

 

We still do need to get to the bottom of why Labour are always a few points ahead in the opinion polls than they are at the ballot box, it could a variety of reasons from "shy Tories" to activism but yeah they have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

 

Only way is up for JC. Matt says he's a dead man walking after May but I think the only way he will is if he wants to, apparently he's enjoying the job more than he thought he would and if he thinks his job of transforming the party isn't done he won't bow out. Labours "first 11" know they won't get anywhere if they start acting up and JC is automatically on that ballot paper come a leadership challenge.

 

What does he want to even "transform" them to? Most of the stuff we heard in the budget response was pretty much Brown-lite economics and given his support for the EU I'm presuming he's given up on trying to implement any of the more radical policies he was standing on from the start of his campaign, I do hope the new members manage to change the party's constitution but I can't see it happening, it would be hilarious to see Labour losing election after election and the membership still voting for Corbyn to lead them into the next one everytime

 

That said he did look better at PMQ's this week, seems to have taken Cameron's advice, done his tie up properly, put a nice suit on and looked quite smart, he scrubs up well when he wants to.

[leicsmac]

Twitter is a left wing echo chamber, just stay off it.

We still do need to get to the bottom of why Labour are always a few points ahead in the opinion polls than they are at the ballot box, it could a variety of reasons from "shy Tories" to activism but yeah they have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

What does he want to even "transform" them to? Most of the stuff we heard in the budget response was pretty much Brown-lite economics and given his support for the EU I'm presuming he's given up on trying to implement any of the more radical policies he was standing on from the start of his campaign, I do hope the new members manage to change the party's constitution but I can't see it happening, it would be hilarious to see Labour losing election after election and the membership still voting for Corbyn to lead them into the next one everytime

That said he did look better at PMQ's this week, seems to have taken Cameron's advice, done his tie up properly, put a nice suit on and looked quite smart, he scrubs up well when he wants to.

We've had the discussion regarding Twitter before with some data brought to the table, it wasn't a left wing echo chamber when we talked about it then and it still isn't now. There are plenty of right wingers on there. (I remember something about a 65/35 split, hardly a majority to the degree of right wingers being silenced). Social media does tend to be the haunt of the younger and therefore generally speaking more liberal crowd, but the faux victimisation is unnecessary.

If anything Tumblr is the closest thing to such as you describe, though even that has a few conservative members.

Regarding the topic itself, it could well be just a rogue data spot, so I guess we'll have to see how the polls turn out consistently over the next few months. I do think that a sitting government does tend to drop a few points in the polls by comparison to ballot box, no matter which one it is, for a variety of reasons.

[Rincewind]

As  Matt says any poll showing the opposition ahead is a 'rogue' poll and means nothing. Any poll showing the present government ahead is genuine.

[Guest MattP]

We've had the discussion regarding Twitter before with some data brought to the table, it wasn't a left wing echo chamber when we talked about it then and it still isn't now. There are plenty of right wingers on there. (I remember something about a 65/35 split, hardly a majority to the degree of right wingers being silenced). Social media does tend to be the haunt of the younger and therefore generally speaking more liberal crowd, but the faux victimisation is unnecessary.

 

Didn't we find on the data that 80% of Twitter supported Obama in some states and that Labour won the UK election poll on there with the Green's coming third?

 

I'm not saying it's a 100% left wing echo chamber but it certainly leans that way.

[Bryn]

Don't believe that for a second, Labour seem to have no kind of platform at the moment. They need to figure out what they stand for before they'll gain any kind of momentum, if in doubt the elections will always go down a better the devil you know route.

[leicsmac]

Didn't we find on the data that 80% of Twitter supported Obama in some states and that Labour won the UK election poll on there with the Green's coming third?

I'm not saying it's a 100% left wing echo chamber but it certainly leans that way.

I'll have to dig up the numbers again. No disagreement regarding the leaning, but there's still plenty of conservatives on there and in any case I thought right wingers had a thicker skin and enjoyed the cut and thrust of debate anyway. After all, it's only words. ;-)

[ChrisFilter]

Same old shy Toryism. There's nothing to be proud of about being a Tory at the moment - attacks on the poor, the disabled, the NHS, schools, the young, the lack of housing development, etc. They're 'the baddies' and apart from a few deplorable arseholes, your average Tory voter is slightly embarrassed of their vote - putting their own interests ahead of people who need more support.

On the other hand, Labour's growing support is young and idealistic. Vocal and impressionable. They truly believe in a better way and the fact that the likes of the IMF and your average economist supports their economic approach also holds sway with some swing voters. But come crunch time those swing voters will likely guiltily vote Tory having fallen for the media-driven anti-Corbyn rhetoric. Better half-competent bastards than the risk of an incompetent nice guy.

[Guest Sharpe's Fox]

What does he want to even "transform" them to? Most of the stuff we heard in the budget response was pretty much Brown-lite economics and given his support for the EU I'm presuming he's given up on trying to implement any of the more radical policies he was standing on from the start of his campaign, I do hope the new members manage to change the party's constitution but I can't see it happening, it would be hilarious to see Labour losing election after election and the membership still voting for Corbyn to lead them into the next one everytime

 

That said he did look better at PMQ's this week, seems to have taken Cameron's advice, done his tie up properly, put a nice suit on and looked quite smart, he scrubs up well when he wants to.

 

I think the main idea is to make party conference the main policy building tool rather that Blair's method of accumilating power at the top of the party and working down that Cameron and Osbourne have copied. JC supports the EU because its one of the poilicies that he manages to disagree with the membership on.

 

On his dress sense I think thats the only decent suit he has, it was bought for him by his sons after the leadership victory I believe.

[Richmondfox]

We've had the discussion regarding Twitter before with some data brought to the table, it wasn't a left wing echo chamber when we talked about it then and it still isn't now. There are plenty of right wingers on there. (I remember something about a 65/35 split, hardly a majority to the degree of right wingers being silenced). Social media does tend to be the haunt of the younger and therefore generally speaking more liberal crowd, but the faux victimisation is unnecessary.

If anything Tumblr is the closest thing to such as you describe, though even that has a few conservative members.

Regarding the topic itself, it could well be just a rogue data spot, so I guess we'll have to see how the polls turn out consistently over the next few months. I do think that a sitting government does tend to drop a few points in the polls by comparison to ballot box, no matter which one it is, for a variety of reasons.

I mean real friends I know in person on Facebook, the way facebook works it pulls posts from people you read/comment on creating an echo chamber.  I don't use Twitter for comments from normal people as it's an electronic form of an idiot shouting at the TV.

 

Maybe Conservative supporters just get on with their lifes and let the polls speak rather than trying to vocally change/challenge other peoples opinions.  I have never filled out a Yougov poll and I feel that I am politically aware.  Surely as City fans we know not to read too much into polls that have no affect on the final result.  I'm glad I support the Conservatives (for now), following Labour seems so tiring, I haven't got the energy to be angry at everything. 

 

I do find that my politically active friends and tend to join in on the big statements be it marches, talks, demos, post fuch you Gove on FB, things that have little impact of changing something but look good rather small local political moves in the community.

[Jon the Hat]

There is no way the Labour party is ahead.  None.  They are failing completely to act as effective opposition, let alone look like they could run something.  Not good for the country, we don't need an unchecked Tory government any more than we needed an unchecked Labour one.

[MrSpaM]

Remember the last time Labour was apparently in front...

[Guest MattP]

There is no way the Labour party is ahead.  None.  They are failing completely to act as effective opposition, let alone look like they could run something.  Not good for the country, we don't need an unchecked Tory government any more than we needed an unchecked Labour one.

 

To be fair you can still gain widespread support even if you are incompetent providing you have a issue people care so much about, it will be interesting to see what Labour come up with, in his own mind Corbyn probably thinks it's opposition to Trident, as we head to 2020 they'll probably hang their hat on the NHS as usual with the same lines about "Tory privatisation" etc.

 

A case in point is the SNP, they are still running at 50% plus in polls in Scotland despite proposing an economic plan that would have seen the IMF called in a day after independence, they are now running a deficit of around 10% of SDP. ( http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/snp-scotland-cant-budget-wont-budget-1549820)  The "anti-austerity" party who would have had to implement more austerity on their citizens than the EU did to Greece.