Looking To Start A Matched Betting Project - But Unsure About The Maths

[Donk]

Hello everyone

 

 

Ive been looking into using free bookmaker offers to make money through matched betting. Ive familiarised myself with the terms and conditions each bookmaker is offering, and ive chosen to start with Ladbrokes. So that's all good.

 

Ive also started to use calculators online, the sort you can find at SMarkets, or the betmonkey sites, to calculate stakes. Again, no problem using them.

 

The only issue I have, is the way the returns are calculated from the free bet, and it never seems to maximise the return I can make.

 

Unless its ME that cannot do the correct maths.

 

Let me give you an example, as ive chosen the games I will be following tonight:

 

So tonight, Fleetwood v Ipswich:

 

If I back Fleetwood at 2.5 on Ladbrokes, I can then place a lay bet of 5.06 onto Fleetwood NOT to win. this will guarantee me one way or the other, ill more or less have £5 back minus a small loss of a few pence, and qualify for a free bet. Totally good with that part.

 

 

HOWEVER

 

For the second part of the bet, the maths seem to always be off to me, and I wondered if you could perhaps help me.

 

Ignore the teams, and just focus on the prices, as the odds may have changed a little:

 

 

When I get the free bet, ill put all of the free bet onto the Dortmund (Team A) v Slavia Prague (Team B) game.

 

The back and lay calculators suggest I can expect a profit of around 13.24 from this game, with a lay stake on the exchange of 13.92.

 

 

This doesn't make sense to me

 

If I was to put £20 on the draw, this was 3.75 odds when I checked, so I would expect a return of £55 (because I would not get the stake back).

 

If I lay the result NOT being a draw with 10, this would create a return of £20 (£30 - the stake of £10).

 

So surely, in the example I gave, I can return more money than the calculator suggests, at a lower liability on the exchange?

 

 

If the game IS a draw, I would win 55 - exchange liability of £30 at 4.0 odds = £25 if bookmakers bet wins

 

If the game is NOT a draw, I would win £20 (betfair exchange return excluding the £10 stake I put on) - free bet stake of zero which wouldn't be returned to me = £20

 

 

So either way, MY maths show ill make either £25 at the bookmaker, or £20 at the betfair exchange.

 

So why do all the calculators show I can only make £13.24?

 

 

Genuine question aimed at all who have done matched betting, can you point me in the right direction on this. What am I missing? do I not understand what I'm doing correctly?

 

Thanks in advance

 

 

[goose2010]

25 minutes ago, Donk said:

Hello everyone

 

 

Ive been looking into using free bookmaker offers to make money through matched betting. Ive familiarised myself with the terms and conditions each bookmaker is offering, and ive chosen to start with Ladbrokes. So that's all good.

 

Ive also started to use calculators online, the sort you can find at SMarkets, or the betmonkey sites, to calculate stakes. Again, no problem using them.

 

The only issue I have, is the way the returns are calculated from the free bet, and it never seems to maximise the return I can make.

 

Unless its ME that cannot do the correct maths.

 

Let me give you an example, as ive chosen the games I will be following tonight:

 

So tonight, Fleetwood v Ipswich:

 

If I back Fleetwood at 2.5 on Ladbrokes, I can then place a lay bet of 5.06 onto Fleetwood NOT to win. this will guarantee me one way or the other, ill more or less have £5 back minus a small loss of a few pence, and qualify for a free bet. Totally good with that part.

 

 

HOWEVER

 

For the second part of the bet, the maths seem to always be off to me, and I wondered if you could perhaps help me.

 

Ignore the teams, and just focus on the prices, as the odds may have changed a little:

 

 

When I get the free bet, ill put all of the free bet onto the Dortmund (Team A) v Slavia Prague (Team B) game.

 

The back and lay calculators suggest I can expect a profit of around 13.24 from this game, with a lay stake on the exchange of 13.92.

 

 

This doesn't make sense to me

 

If I was to put £20 on the draw, this was 3.75 odds when I checked, so I would expect a return of £55 (because I would not get the stake back).

 

If I lay the result NOT being a draw with 10, this would create a return of £20 (£30 - the stake of £10).

 

So surely, in the example I gave, I can return more money than the calculator suggests, at a lower liability on the exchange?

 

 

If the game IS a draw, I would win 55 - exchange liability of £30 at 4.0 odds = £25 if bookmakers bet wins

 

If the game is NOT a draw, I would win £20 (betfair exchange return excluding the £10 stake I put on) - free bet stake of zero which wouldn't be returned to me = £20

 

 

So either way, MY maths show ill make either £25 at the bookmaker, or £20 at the betfair exchange.

 

So why do all the calculators show I can only make £13.24?

 

 

Genuine question aimed at all who have done matched betting, can you point me in the right direction on this. What am I missing? do I not understand what I'm doing correctly?

 

Thanks in advance

 

 

Are you also counting in the £10 you would lose from your steak on the NOT a draw ?

[filbertway]

14 minutes ago, Donk said:

Hello everyone

 

 

Ive been looking into using free bookmaker offers to make money through matched betting. Ive familiarised myself with the terms and conditions each bookmaker is offering, and ive chosen to start with Ladbrokes. So that's all good.

 

Ive also started to use calculators online, the sort you can find at SMarkets, or the betmonkey sites, to calculate stakes. Again, no problem using them.

 

The only issue I have, is the way the returns are calculated from the free bet, and it never seems to maximise the return I can make.

 

Unless its ME that cannot do the correct maths.

 

Let me give you an example, as ive chosen the games I will be following tonight:

 

So tonight, Fleetwood v Ipswich:

 

If I back Fleetwood at 2.5 on Ladbrokes, I can then place a lay bet of 5.06 onto Fleetwood NOT to win. this will guarantee me one way or the other, ill more or less have £5 back minus a small loss of a few pence, and qualify for a free bet. Totally good with that part.

 

 

HOWEVER

 

For the second part of the bet, the maths seem to always be off to me, and I wondered if you could perhaps help me.

 

Ignore the teams, and just focus on the prices, as the odds may have changed a little:

 

 

When I get the free bet, ill put all of the free bet onto the Dortmund (Team A) v Slavia Prague (Team B) game.

 

The back and lay calculators suggest I can expect a profit of around 13.24 from this game, with a lay stake on the exchange of 13.92.

 

 

This doesn't make sense to me

 

If I was to put £20 on the draw, this was 3.75 odds when I checked, so I would expect a return of £55 (because I would not get the stake back).

 

If I lay the result NOT being a draw with 10, this would create a return of £20 (£30 - the stake of £10).

 

So surely, in the example I gave, I can return more money than the calculator suggests, at a lower liability on the exchange?

 

 

If the game IS a draw, I would win 55 - exchange liability of £30 at 4.0 odds = £25 if bookmakers bet wins

 

If the game is NOT a draw, I would win £20 (betfair exchange return excluding the £10 stake I put on) - free bet stake of zero which wouldn't be returned to me = £20

 

 

So either way, MY maths show ill make either £25 at the bookmaker, or £20 at the betfair exchange.

 

So why do all the calculators show I can only make £13.24?

 

 

Genuine question aimed at all who have done matched betting, can you point me in the right direction on this. What am I missing? do I not understand what I'm doing correctly?

 

Thanks in advance

 

 

Your maths is wrong. I find it hard to believe that the odds of not a draw 2/1

 

If the odds of a draw a 3.75 then the odds of not a draw are most likely to be around 1.35?

 

So if it's a draw you'll bet 20 on a draw to return 55 - 25 up

If it's not a draw and you have a 10er it'll return 13.50 - 17.50 down

[RobHawk]

Your post makes no sense to me, Too many words, not enough equations for a maths problem. 

 

What i can tell you is that ive been doing matched betting for a few years now and generally i aim for a minimum 80% return from my free

bets.

 

So for a £20 freebet, you should aim for £16 profit

[Donk]

26 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

Your post makes no sense to me, Too many words, not enough equations for a maths problem. 

 

What i can tell you is that ive been doing matched betting for a few years now and generally i aim for a minimum 80% return from my free

bets.

 

So for a £20 freebet, you should aim for £16 profit

Ok ill give an example.

 

Lets say ive qualified for my free £20 bet. ive made a small loss qualifying for the free bet, but that's fine.

 

This website https://www.savethestudent.org/make-money/what-is-matched-betting.html is recommending using the free bet on the Stoke v Huddersfield match, where it says I can make a profit of £14.47. that's fine.

 

The odds of a Huddersfield win in this match are 5.00.

 

So if I put the free £20 bookmaker bet on the Huddersfield win, my return would be £80 at odds of 5.00 (I wouldn't get the stake as its a free bet).

 

https://www.savethestudent.org/make-money/what-is-matched-betting.html has calculated that I need to place £15.24 on Huddersfield NOT to win.

 

This gives me a liability of 65.53 in the betfair account, if I was to lose the bet in the betfair account.

 

So if Huddersfield won, and I won with the bookmaker, then it would be £80 - £65.53 lost in the betfair exchange = £14.47.

 

Would I be right in saying, if the opposite event happened, and Huddersfield did not win, then it would be:

 

15.24 at 5.3 returns £80.77 (minus £15.24 stake) = £65.53 - free bet stake of 0 lost at the bookmaker = £65.53 profit.

 

 

So depending on the result:

 

if the bookmaker bet wins I pocket £14.47

 

if the betfair exchange wins, I pocket £65.53

 

 

Would this be correct?

 

 

 

[peach0000]

Match betting works for anyone doubting it. There's a match betting calculator on save the student which does all the work for you, basically just tells you what to bet on for maximum return. You can make a 1000 guaranteed in about a week then it gets difficult and bear in mind you can only get the instant money once. 

[Donk]

1 minute ago, peach0000 said:

Match betting works for anyone doubting it. There's a match betting calculator on save the student which does all the work for you, basically just tells you what to bet on for maximum return. You can make a 1000 guaranteed in about a week then it gets difficult and bear in mind you can only get the instant money once. 

I need to understand the maths

 

Was what I quoted above correct?

 

Its a guaranteed minimum profit of £14.47...............but ideally the betfair exchange will win which returns more?

[RobHawk]

46 minutes ago, Donk said:

Ok ill give an example.

 

Lets say ive qualified for my free £20 bet. ive made a small loss qualifying for the free bet, but that's fine.

 

This website https://www.savethestudent.org/make-money/what-is-matched-betting.html is recommending using the free bet on the Stoke v Huddersfield match, where it says I can make a profit of £14.47. that's fine.

 

The odds of a Huddersfield win in this match are 5.00.

 

So if I put the free £20 bookmaker bet on the Huddersfield win, my return would be £80 at odds of 5.00 (I wouldn't get the stake as its a free bet).

 

https://www.savethestudent.org/make-money/what-is-matched-betting.html has calculated that I need to place £15.24 on Huddersfield NOT to win.

 

This gives me a liability of 65.53 in the betfair account, if I was to lose the bet in the betfair account.

 

So if Huddersfield won, and I won with the bookmaker, then it would be £80 - £65.53 lost in the betfair exchange = £14.47.

 

Would I be right in saying, if the opposite event happened, and Huddersfield did not win, then it would be:

 

15.24 at 5.3 returns £80.77 (minus £15.24 stake) = £65.53 - free bet stake of 0 lost at the bookmaker = £65.53 profit.

 

 

So depending on the result:

 

if the bookmaker bet wins I pocket £14.47

 

if the betfair exchange wins, I pocket £65.53

 

 

Would this be correct?

 

 

 

No the lay of £15.24 minus commission is what you would get if your free bet lost. 

 

Which i would hazard a guess is around £14.47

[Thefox81]

Ill stick to my 14 team acca at weekends. Returns 20k from a quid. It hasnt happened yet but it will 1 day im sure of it 😂

[RobHawk]

23 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

No the lay of £15.24 minus commission is what you would get if your free bet lost. 

 

Which i would hazard a guess is around £14.47

Just to expand on this, when lay betting it's the exact opposite of a normal bet. 

 

A normal bet you put on £10 at 9/1 and risk your £10 to make £100, or £90 profit usually on an event happening. 

 

With a £10 lay bet at 10s you risk losing £90 for £10 profit on that event not happening

[Donk]

22 minutes ago, RobHawk said:

Just to expand on this, when lay betting it's the exact opposite of a normal bet. 

 

A normal bet you put on £10 at 9/1 and risk your £10 to make £100, or £90 profit usually on an event happening. 

 

With a £10 lay bet at 10s you risk losing £90 for £10 profit on that event not happening

For someone who isnt familiar yet with the "lay" side, it seems just to me unless i was matched betting lay betting seems completely pointless and a one way ticket to huge losses.

 

I suppose its no different to sticking on 90 to win 10 on a big odds on bet in some ways

[RobHawk]

1 hour ago, Donk said:

For someone who isnt familiar yet with the "lay" side, it seems just to me unless i was matched betting lay betting seems completely pointless and a one way ticket to huge losses.

 

I suppose its no different to sticking on 90 to win 10 on a big odds on bet in some ways

It depends how sure you are that something won't happen. You only need a team to be odds on like man city v Norwich. If you had layed man city you probably could have had very favourable odds. 

 

I've laid 0-0 a fair few times fully expecting a goal to.come and it's very rare it doesn't. Lay odds also.great for trading or cashing out. 

[Donk]

14 hours ago, RobHawk said:

It depends how sure you are that something won't happen. You only need a team to be odds on like man city v Norwich. If you had layed man city you probably could have had very favourable odds. 

 

I've laid 0-0 a fair few times fully expecting a goal to.come and it's very rare it doesn't. Lay odds also.great for trading or cashing out. 

RobHawk I have a question for you if ok

 

If a bookmakers free bet must be placed on an accumulator, how do you still guarantee the profit?

 

Mr Green's signup offer is place £10 on any bet, single or acca, with odds of 3/1 or greater. I can match the single bet with a lay bet on the exchange no problem.

 

I then get a free £10 that MUST be used on an acca, with a minimum of 3 selections.

 

So how do I then guarantee the profit by using the betfair exchange?

 

I cant just pick say, Draw Draw Draw at the bookmaker, and Not Draw Not Draw Not Draw at the exchange, because if the results end up going Draw Draw Not Draw, both bets will lose.

 

 

Or do you lay each bet of the acca as a single in the exchange, so either the whole of the acca wins, OR if one line of the acca loses, the opposite line in the exchange will win and cover the loss made by the acca?

 

I'm confused, as quite a few of the free offers require the placement of an acca bet

 

[lildave3]

Just sign up to one of the sites, all of this information is explained to you and there’s a whole forum dedicated to help. I don’t know why you aren’t signed up already.

[RobHawk]

6 hours ago, Donk said:

RobHawk I have a question for you if ok

 

If a bookmakers free bet must be placed on an accumulator, how do you still guarantee the profit?

 

Mr Green's signup offer is place £10 on any bet, single or acca, with odds of 3/1 or greater. I can match the single bet with a lay bet on the exchange no problem.

 

I then get a free £10 that MUST be used on an acca, with a minimum of 3 selections.

 

So how do I then guarantee the profit by using the betfair exchange?

 

I cant just pick say, Draw Draw Draw at the bookmaker, and Not Draw Not Draw Not Draw at the exchange, because if the results end up going Draw Draw Not Draw, both bets will lose.

 

 

Or do you lay each bet of the acca as a single in the exchange, so either the whole of the acca wins, OR if one line of the acca loses, the opposite line in the exchange will win and cover the loss made by the acca?

 

I'm confused, as quite a few of the free offers require the placement of an acca bet

 

Accas are definately a bit more complex as you need to ensure you are betting on events at times that don't overlap. And you need to lay to include your previous lay stakes when laying outcome 2 and 3 (if the first wins).

 

You really need an ACCA calculater to work it out for you, which as lildave says is available from most of the matched betting sites on offer. 

 

I'm with profit maximiser who I thoroughly recommend as the best out there. If you want any more info let me know. 

 

Alternatively, you can just punt the ACCA and hope it wins. Only need one to land to make it worthwhile.

[coolhandfox]

Use Match bet blog website, it's free and has decent advice and bet calculators 

[Donk]

7 hours ago, RobHawk said:

Accas are definately a bit more complex as you need to ensure you are betting on events at times that don't overlap. And you need to lay to include your previous lay stakes when laying outcome 2 and 3 (if the first wins).

 

You really need an ACCA calculater to work it out for you, which as lildave says is available from most of the matched betting sites on offer. 

 

I'm with profit maximiser who I thoroughly recommend as the best out there. If you want any more info let me know. 

 

Alternatively, you can just punt the ACCA and hope it wins. Only need one to land to make it worthwhile.

 

4 hours ago, coolhandfox said:

Use Match bet blog website, it's free and has decent advice and bet calculators 

Thanks for the resources guys ill be sure to check these out