Anyone think we are not in serious trouble ? Bookies are rarely wrong

[tickler28]

If the rumours are true and Soumare is on his way out in my humble opinion unless we make at least 2 signings before the transfer window shuts and pick the right manager we are in serious trouble....points deduction or not.

Edited 27 January by tickler28

[The Year Of The Fox]

I got 10/1 in early November 

[Clever Fox]

I'm confident properly managed and set up as a team we can avoid relegation. I doubt we'll get any points deduction or a token one.

 

I hope though we sign CF even on loan this Window.

[MPH]

9 hours ago, Flappit said:

Bookies respond to bets being placed, they are not fortune tellers.

 

just check to make sure one of the bets isn’t by a Mr Marty McFly and you’ll be fine…

[Dan]

Our odds have always been slightly skewed by the points deduction talk. The bookies don't really know what it is. But they have factored in by enough to indicate it is probably happening. I think without that deduction we're probably still about 10/1.

[Chrysalis]

15 hours ago, AYLESBURY FOX 1961 said:

On sky bet they will only give you 100/30 on us getting relegated - oxford are considered certainties for the drop - not from what i can see from Saturdays showing. Bloody hell  even norwich and west brom are 7/1

I placed (£10) it at 10/1 earlier in the season, being offered £15.72 cash out at the moment.  Bet365.

Edited 28 January by Chrysalis

[LCFCJohn]

You only need eyes and a brain to work out that if we get a deduction, we are in seriously trouble and it could go either way but will be tight.

 

If there was no deduction possible, we’d need say 10-12 points which I do think it’d be pretty hysterical to suggest we can’t/won’t get.

[TheGoldenGod]

18 hours ago, Dan said:

Massively regret not putting loads on at 20/1.

Yeah only chucked a tenner on, poor decision!

[adam1]

On 27/01/2026 at 11:46, purpleronnie said:

Only slightly, its much more detailed than that, data modelling, they also will balance the market in their favour.

Correct. (By balance the market in their favour I assume you mean their margin).

 

Also to point out to all in this thread and OP, that Skybet are probably the worst for prices. You are generally better off with bet365 (if you can get an account), although Freds are 9/2 for us to be relegated. 

 

 

Freds 9/2  (18.8% probability)

 

Most others (inc skybet) 4/1 (20% probability)

 

Bet Victor 5/2 (28.5% probability)

 

 

I'd guess on those prices, our actual price (no margin) is about  11/2 - 5/1. This is 15-16.5% probability. Which we would probably all agree at this point in time is about right.

 

So who had the treble at the start of the season? Villa for the prem, us to be relegated, hearts for the scottish prem🤪

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 28 January by adam1

[Chrysalis]

On 28/01/2026 at 01:16, Chrysalis said:

I placed (£10) it at 10/1 earlier in the season, being offered £15.72 cash out at the moment.  Bet365.

Offer now £22 to cash out, I am holding out.

[Salieri]

9 minutes ago, Chrysalis said:

Offer now £22 to cash out, I am holding out.

Wow, brave 😅

[BigGibbo]

The writing has been on the wall.

 

I couldn't bring myself to take the 20/1, but it was an obviously good decision for anyone that did. 🍻