Forecasts, Projections & Crystal Bollocks

[Disillusioned]

I like to base my judgements on the cold hard facts of winning drawing and losing. Whilst we can always argue the toss (and it appears there are too many on here who like to toss off on everything but the cold hard facts) about players, tactics and vague notions such as 'building for the future' we must always keep in mind that we are not discussing a sport like ice skating where victory or defeat is just a matter of opinion.

We approach 2006 having won just ONE of our last ten games - our worst run since the Premiership. In the whole of 2005 we have won only ONE away game. This is the damning indictment of the Levein era. Since Levein took over we have only won TWICE in TWENTY EIGHT encounters on the road. If you want a yardstick the much reviled Adams managed THREE victories in just SIX away matches in the season he was drummed out.

Under Levein our total points average per match is around 1.175 and this season it has dropped below that. For the inumerates amongst you this is relegation form. 'Well', I hear the retards mutter, 'We can always get a run going...' Indeed we could; but the evdence suggests this is only a slim possibility.

You see, we haven't ever managed more than two consecutive wins under Levein. And we have only ever done that once and that was over a year ago. So we know what we are dealing with: a team that can't win away, can't do back to back and can't average much more than a point per game in the long run. Excellent. Excellent for making forecasts.

So I think am on pretty firm ground when I predict a final points tally for this campaign of 50 points or fewer. Last season that would have seen us relegated. This season? Can we rely upon Brighton/Crewe/ Wednesday/Millwall to do the honourable thing and lay down and die for us?

Brighton may just have too much to live for right now what with their new stadium an' all. Wednesday, one of the proverbial sleeping giants, are not the type of side you want to get into a relegation scrap with. They can always call upon 30,000 + at the fag end of the season to roar them on to keep their Championship status.

Our only consolations seem to be that Crewe are a yo-yo outfit between leagues 2&3 and appear resigned to that role and that Millwall have had the mark of Cain on them ever since over-reaching themselves by making the FA Cup Final last year.

The January transfer window promises much to the dumb and hopelessly misguided. This will be Leveins third foray into the market and this time the scraping of the barrel will be louder than before. And, as on previous occasions, the net impact on the team's form will probably be zilch (and here 'zilch' can be taken as good!).

My computations suggest we have about a 40% chance of losing our Championship status which is simply shocking for a club of our resources and standing. If current form is anything to go by the probabilities of relegation are steadily increasing.

So the board will have to decide whether to stick or twist. Will they gamble that Levein can keep a sliver of daylight between ourselves and the chasing pack OR will they bet on a break-out that will catch the dour one on the hop?

In my opinion, we are now entering that mathematical territory where a new appointment might be a safer option, particularly if the board can secure the services of an 'impact' candidate just for the remainder of the season.

The short term need for survival outweighs the luxury of 'building for the future' whatever that nebulous nonsense means.

[Bert]

Good post.

something really needs to be sorted out

And the question has to be asked, would we have been better off with Adams? People were expecting instant success and started moaning because we wern't where we were expected to be and Adams was forced out of the club.

If we do go down, which is a possibility, who knows what will happen to the club?? we need the fans to rally and get behind the team because we simply cannot afford torely on other teams failures.

[Chrysalis]

I was close to doing a siimiliar posts, it is well written states hard facts and no speculation like "we only need to win 3 or 4 games and its rosy". Winning 3 games under the current circumstances is very hard and almost impossible. I may try and get stats for other managers who have had that points avg after a year and do a % of them who were sacked or stayed in employment.

[ithuriel]

if the board is professional they should already have dossiers on current managers.

facts are we are the fifth worst team in this division and have been for three matches now.

i cant see how three more levein buys next month would affect this situation.

more likely crewe and millwall will benefit from the transfer window. that is something most here dont seem to be thinking about from the looks of it.gradi knows a good player when he sees one and millwall have drawn two matches that not long ago they were expected to lose.

[The People's Hero]

I like to base my judgements on the cold hard facts of winning drawing and losing. Whilst we can always argue the toss (and it appears there are too many on here who like to toss off on everything but the cold hard facts) about players, tactics and vague notions such as 'building for the future' we must always keep in mind that we are not discussing a sport like ice skating where victory or defeat is just a matter of opinion.

We approach 2006 having won just ONE of our last ten games - our worst run since the Premiership. In the whole of 2005 we have won only ONE away game. This is the damning indictment of the Levein era. Since Levein took over we have only won TWICE in TWENTY EIGHT encounters on the road. If you want a yardstick the much reviled Adams managed THREE victories in just SIX away matches in the season he was drummed out.

Under Levein our total points average per match is around 1.175 and this season it has dropped below that. For the inumerates amongst you this is relegation form. 'Well', I hear the retards mutter, 'We can always get a run going...' Indeed we could; but the evdence suggests this is only a slim possibility.

You see, we haven't ever managed more than two consecutive wins under Levein. And we have only ever done that once and that was over a year ago. So we know what we are dealing with: a team that can't win away, can't do back to back and can't average much more than a point per game in the long run. Excellent. Excellent for making forecasts.

So I think am on pretty firm ground when I predict a final points tally for this campaign of 50 points or fewer. Last season that would have seen us relegated. This season? Can we rely upon Brighton/Crewe/ Wednesday/Millwall to do the honourable thing and lay down and die for us?

Brighton may just have too much to live for right now what with their new stadium an' all. Wednesday, one of the proverbial sleeping giants, are not the type of side you want to get into a relegation scrap with. They can always call upon 30,000 + at the fag end of the season to roar them on to keep their Championship status.

Our only consolations seem to be that Crewe are a yo-yo outfit between leagues 2&3 and appear resigned to that role and that Millwall have had the mark of Cain on them ever since over-reaching themselves by making the FA Cup Final last year.

The January transfer window promises much to the dumb and hopelessly misguided. This will be Leveins third foray into the market and this time the scraping of the barrel will be louder than before. And, as on previous occasions, the net impact on the team's form will probably be zilch (and here 'zilch' can be taken as good!).

My computations suggest we have about a 40% chance of losing our Championship status which is simply shocking for a club of our resources and standing. If current form is anything to go by the probabilities of relegation are steadily increasing.

So the board will have to decide whether to stick or twist. Will they gamble that Levein can keep a sliver of daylight between ourselves and the chasing pack OR will they bet on a break-out that will catch the dour one on the hop?

In my opinion, we are now entering that mathematical territory where a new appointment might be a safer option, particularly if the board can secure the services of an 'impact' candidate just for the remainder of the season.

The short term need for survival outweighs the luxury of 'building for the future' whatever that nebulous nonsense means.

Cracking posts.

I'm looking forwards to a couple of idiots coming out with 'keep the faith', 'we're too good to go down', 'Levein is a legend', 'building for the future' and we're had plenty of 'bad luck'.

[Janx]

Cracking posts.

I'm looking forwards to a couple of idiots coming out with 'keep the faith', 'we're too good to go down', 'Levein is a legend', 'building for the future' and we're had plenty of 'bad luck'.

ditto!!

[The People's Hero]

Come on then idiots, make my day.

ps you'll get bonuses for text speak, poor spelling, complete lack of puncuation (excepting of course the overuse of exclamation marks) oh and use of CAPS LOCK.

[Cal]

L3VEINZZ A LEDGENDA

[ithuriel]

Craigs a legend in his own mind , thought it was time for a bit of levity. levity isnt a player by the way for some of our more challenged folk

[Magictv]

Come on then idiots, make my day.

ps you'll get bonuses for text speak, poor spelling, complete lack of puncuation (excepting of course the overuse of exclamation marks) oh and use of CAPS LOCK.

i know ive been beaten to it but im bored so here we go

OMG111!! L13k \/\/3 r t3H b3St T34M Pr3m13rSsHiP h3r3 \/\/e (0/\/\3!!11!!!one!1

[Chrysalis]

L3v31n 15 4 g0d, h3 th1nk5 5h0t5 0n g04l 15 th3 w4y t0 g3t pr0m0t3d.

[Disillusioned]

Fill your boots with my cold logic chaps. Little Ms Hitler has decided this is all you're going to get.

[Guest]

Fill your boots with my cold logic chaps. Little Ms Hitler has decided this is all you're going to get.

Now, now, who's throwing around unproven accusations?

[Chimp]

Come on then idiots, make my day.

Again, playground tatics TPH.

Why is anyone who has a different opinion to you an 'idiot'?

You do your argument no favours with this kind of attitude. Disallusioned made a very strong post, it doesn't need polluting with this rubbish.

[The People's Hero]

Again, playground tatics TPH.

Why is anyone who has a different opinion to you an 'idiot'?

You do your argument no favours with this kind of attitude. Disallusioned made a very strong post, it doesn't need polluting with this rubbish.

You appear to have mistaken me for someone who is seeking your approval.

[Chimp]

You appear to have mistaken me for someone who is seeking your approval.

Sigh.

[The People's Hero]

Finding fault with someone else's argument is not 'playground antics'.

If you want to debate about LCFC or enter in to an argument, then fair enough.. I don't see what your problem is.

Anyone who thinks that Levein is doing a good job is an idiot. Fact. If you'd like to differ then please elaborate rather than trying to officiate or come across as superior.

[C-man]

Finding fault with someone else's argument is not 'playground antics'.

If you want to debate about LCFC or enter in to an argument, then fair enough.. I don't see what your problem is.

Anyone who thinks that Levein is doing a good job is an idiot. Fact. If you'd like to differ then please elaborate rather than trying to officiate or come across as superior.

Like you said, Levein isnt doing a good job, most if not all of us will agree with that. However being Leicester manager is a tough job in itself, and he hasnt made it any easier by making some shocking signings.

Cracking post by Dissillusioned though

[Ultra]

It is indeed a tough job, but one made bearable.by the salary cheque he receives each month, and funded by the likes of you and me.

It also requires a sense of judgement which has been sadly lacking in recent weeks.

If he can't find it, I suspect he might not be receiving too many more salary cheques...

[Head Honcho]

I was close to doing a siimiliar posts, it is well written states hard facts and no speculation like "we only need to win 3 or 4 games and its rosy". Winning 3 games under the current circumstances is very hard and almost impossible. I may try and get stats for other managers who have had that points avg after a year and do a % of them who were sacked or stayed in employment.

It's not how many games you win it's how many points you accumulate.

I reckon we need around 30 points from 21 games and our current form is well below that standard!

[Jon the Hat]

A post in the early hours...

Anti Levein... (okay most of us are by now but stay with me...)

The only thing missing is a reference to "take the" M Adams...

And this could be a post by none other than Mr Chandler....

Might have to choose a subject a bit more controversial than "Levein is crap" to get the kind of response Chanlder would appreciate... I reckon he's past it.