Modest and ruthless

[B52]

Foxblogger has an interesting theory why we've a hard time now.

//

"Why Sven is learning quickly, but not quickly enough

The hunt for reasons as to why Leicester have been unable to keep pace with the extremely high standards they set in January and February has been swift and brutal. Ricardo and Yakubu have been singled out for heavy criticism: the former for having the cheek to concede exactly the same number of goals in his eight games between the sticks as the proposed replacement, Chris Weale, did in his last 8 starts; the latter for failing to score in his last six matches, despite these barren spells being a common feature of long lost golden boy Matty Fryatt’s time at the Walkers.

To blame individuals on the pitch is too simplistic, too crude, too one-dimensional an analysis. It is time to propose a much more subtle reason why the last six games have gone so very badly for Foxes – Sven wasn’t in charge for any of the return fixtures.

The contrast between Sven’s results when facing a Championship side for the first time and the rematch is quite stunning. In his first meetings with other Championship teams Sven’s Leicester have played 19, won seven, drawn three and lost nine. By contrast, in the return fixture against the very same teams Sven’s City have played nine, won seven and drawn two. No Championship manager has beaten Sven at the second attempt. Only two teams (Leeds and Preston) have managed a better result than in their first meeting, but neither of them won.

We can only speculate why this might be happening, but it seems reasonable to assume that Sven was not being modest when he confessed to not knowing as much about the Championship as he might have liked when taking the manager’s position. In an interview with Mick Collins he admitted, “I watched many games on video to prepare for teams I might not have seen lots of, but the technical people here are very good, and they can condense them down for me.”

Sven would be the first to admit that this is no match for watching players first hand, and even that does not tell you the whole story – is that tricky winger good, or is the full back just making him look special? Only when his own side matched up against these opponents have the true strengths and weaknesses of the opposition and his own XI been revealed. Second time around, lessons learned, Sven has ruthlessly demonstrated his managerial prowess. At least, that’s what the stats would suggest.

If it is true then City fans should expect this period of turbulence to continue for a short while yet. Leicester’s next four fixtures are all against sides who first faced the Foxes when Paulo Sousa was in charge. Any more poor results and Leicester can kiss goodbye any hopes of the playoffs. But the 18 teams who remain in the Championship next season will know their one free pass against Leicester has expired. If Sven is learning as quickly as the numbers suggest, the Foxes will be a formidable force next year." //

[cc_star]

If we don't go up I think it will be tougher at the top next year.

There is no way all 3 relegated sides will tank in the 1st half of the season like Portsmouth, Hull & Burnley did this season, in fact all 3 of them are in promotion challenging form 2nd half of the season & much like us it's early season form keeping them out of the equation.

Then we have the 3 new relegated sides, none of whom are as bad as last seasons 3 relegated teams; Wolves, Birmingham, West Ham, West Brom & to a lesser extent Wigan are all capable of sewing up automatic spots.

So as much as Sven or LCFC might improve next season, the challenge also becomes immeasurably harder.

[thybluefox]

If we don't go up I think it will be tougher at the top next year.

There is no way all 3 relegated sides will tank in the 1st half of the season like Portsmouth, Hull & Burnley did this season, in fact all 3 of them are in promotion challenging form 2nd half of the season & much like us it's early season form keeping them out of the equation.

Then we have the 3 new relegated sides, none of whom are as bad as last seasons 3 relegated teams; Wolves, Birmingham, West Ham, West Brom & to a lesser extent Wigan are all capable of sewing up automatic spots.

So as much as Sven or LCFC might improve next season, the challenge also becomes immeasurably harder.

It'll much tougher next season you're right, and the spread of points won't be as even as this season either. But, if we want to be able to stay in the premiership when we get promoted, we need to be matching these teams that are coming down.

[ozleicester]

Love your thinking FB, hope your right, and that Sven spends a little more time on the videos before the last few games

[The Padster]

If we don't go up I think it will be tougher at the top next year.

There is no way all 3 relegated sides will tank in the 1st half of the season like Portsmouth, Hull & Burnley did this season, in fact all 3 of them are in promotion challenging form 2nd half of the season & much like us it's early season form keeping them out of the equation.

Then we have the 3 new relegated sides, none of whom are as bad as last seasons 3 relegated teams; Wolves, Birmingham, West Ham, West Brom & to a lesser extent Wigan are all capable of sewing up automatic spots.

So as much as Sven or LCFC might improve next season, the challenge also becomes immeasurably harder.

The thing is though, who's to say that those teams coming down will or will not be difficult next season. During the summer it is inevitable that players and more than likely managers are to move on, Aston Villa for instance, who are still in the relegation mix would be sure to get rid of Houllier and a shed load of their players would be gone. A Championship team might get taken over in the summer, have a massive cash injection and become a force next season.

Basicially I'm just refusing to get drawn into how difficult next season will be until I know where we are, who we're playing and who will be playing for them and us.

[B52]

"No Championship manager has beaten Sven at the second attempt."

I think this is quite interesting. Is it because it's been easier teams or is it because Sven knows strategies to deal with the "tough" Championship standard?

[ajthefox]

Although stats can be misleading and tend not to give you the whole picture that stat about return fixtures seems pretty convincing, it can't just be coincidence.

Well done to whoever spotted that!

[Foxblogger]

"No Championship manager has beaten Sven at the second attempt."

I think this is quite interesting. Is it because it's been easier teams or is it because Sven knows strategies to deal with the "tough" Championship standard?

I'd say it's a bit of both. Of the 9 return fixtures some would be considered bankers for Leicester (notwithstanding the fact that very few wins in the Championship are offered on a plate), but four of those matches have been against sides in the top half who would consider themselves to be in playoff (or in Swansea's case, automatic promotion) contention.

[ta-fc]

Possibly the most sensible thing wrote on this site in months... Bloody Hell keep this up and people may get bored with hammering Ricardo, Oakley, Sven, Bruma, PVA, Yak, Gally, Howard and Filbert the Fox!

[Thracian]

I suppose if enough pundits say we gonna do this or that next season one of them will eventually be right.

"Will Be" has been associated with Leicester for seasons now... and I no more believe that Sven will win his returns than the other theory that's placed on these boards week after week, that we're suddenly going to go unbeaten for the forseeable future.

Yes. Sven and our new owners represent as good a chance as we're likely to get, but one look at the side and no-one would sensibly say they're going to do anything. There are far too many weaknesses, far too many teamwork factors missing and far too few effective alternatives. Yes, I know being a supporter is an act of faith in itself but I'd like to see the shortcomings start to disappear before I sign up to daft theories. When that happens, logic will tell me we've got a chance.

Sadly I'm not yet convinced it will happen. Because the first thing we need is a proper philosophy of the kind that will win things. A philosophy that says we'll go out and score goals - preferably more goals than anyone else by giving defenders nightmares.

We never look like doing that. We don't even have attacking coaches from anything I've noticed. We have a guy who was a limited footballer in charge and an ex-defender as our coach...and that's what it looks like on match days when, as emphasised previously, we have no quick closing down, no movement, no pace, no fast passing, no support and no finishing. Six things that are vitally important to success in any football club, connected as they obviously are.

Get wise Leicester City. If the owners insist on us ticking those six boxes, not once in a while or when we're playing duffers, but week in week out, we'll be successful.

[The Doctor]

I suppose if enough pundits say we gonna do this or that next season one of them will eventually be right.

"Will Be" has been associated with Leicester for seasons now... and I no more believe that Sven will win his returns than the other theory that's placed on these boards week after week, that we're suddenly going to go unbeaten for the forseeable future.

Yes. Sven and our new owners represent as good a chance as we're likely to get, but one look at the side and no-one would sensibly say they're going to do anything. There are far too many weaknesses, far too many teamwork factors missing and far too few effective alternatives. Yes, I know being a supporter is an act of faith in itself but I'd like to see the shortcomings start to disappear before I sign up to daft theories. When that happens, logic will tell me we've got a chance.

Sadly I'm not yet convinced it will happen. Because the first thing we need is a proper philosophy of the kind that will win things. A philosophy that says we'll go out and score goals - preferably more goals than anyone else by giving defenders nightmares.

We never look like doing that. We don't even have attacking coaches from anything I've noticed. We have a guy who was a limited footballer in charge and an ex-defender as our coach...and that's what it looks like on match days when, as emphasised previously, we have no quick closing down, no movement, no pace, no fast passing, no support and no finishing. Six things that are vitally important to success in any football club, connected as they obviously are.

Get wise Leicester City. If the owners insist on us ticking those six boxes, not once in a while or when we're playing duffers, but week in week out, we'll be successful.

i don't see that this is relevant - some of the greatest managers of recent times were average players - Mourinho & Wenger for example

[Salieri]

i don't see that this is relevant - some of the greatest managers of recent times were average players - Mourinho & Wenger for example

Yes, and equally there have been plenty of great players who have turned out to be god awful managers.

[B52]

....Because the first thing we need is a proper philosophy of the kind that will win things.

....... we have no quick closing down, no movement, no pace, no fast passing, no support and no finishing. Six things that are vitally important to success in any football club, connected as they obviously are.

A proper philosophy is what Sven is trying to build. He doesn't have all pieces of the puzzle yet.

I believe you're more into a headless chicken thing with athletes running around and use brutal force playing rugby.

Personally I prefer football... I see you forgot the defence in your "six things".

[Thracian]

i don't see that this is relevant - some of the greatest managers of recent times were average players - Mourinho & Wenger for example

Where have I said or implied that? I haven't. I said we had an average player as manager and a defender as coach....the two comments were combined. And seeing as Sven was an average midfield player to boot, it seems we have no-one who has the faintest idea how to get our team attacking effectively and in numbers.

At least that is how it looks to me from the stands and I sure wish I had your seat if you've been seeing it any differently.

For the record I've nothing whatsoever against "average player" managers - Wenger being as good as any in terms of the football I like to see. In fact some of the so-called stars who get near instant elevation to managership status are an embarrassment.

What I do object to is negative football and that's all we've played recently against anyone who's been any good, QPR partially excepted.

Sven and Faz might appear to think we can get by begging results against any of the decent teams but me, I prefer that they have to worry about what we're going to do.

No it didn't help giving our opponents umpteen points start but we've had chance to rectify that by getting some pacey attackers and pushing some numbers forward but we haven't done it. We've gone for misfiring old timers.

We got rid of our best goalscoring/goalmaking winger courtesy of master-stroke Pearson and shunted in a bloke who scores every leap year and doesn't look like a winger anyway.

We link him in with a bloke who's got stacks of ability but nothing like the energy to make others play and to close people down quickly then we persist with two non-scoring central midfielders yet you get shirty at the thought of Sven and Faz being criticised.

Well you excuse em all you like. I said we'd fail this season for the same reason we'd fail last season - because we wouldn't score enough goals. I didn't say that because I'm some sort of soothsayer but because we don't have the right players or the right philosophy to score enough, therefore saying so was just stating the obvious.

How many goals did we score against Cardiff, Coventry, QPR, Norwich and Portsmouth, five vitally important games? Three! Or half the goals necessary. And how hard did we try to score goals?. Nowhere near hard enough in my eyes.

[Foxblogger]

Where have I said or implied that? I haven't.

I think it might have been when you said.

We have a guy who was a limited footballer in charge and an ex-defender as our coach...and that's what it looks like on match days

In regards to goals, we've only scored 5 fewer than we did in the whole of last season, and since Sven took over we've scored more goals than 18 other sides in this division, so I'm not really sure what you're on about.

[Thracian]

A proper philosophy is what Sven is trying to build. He doesn't have all pieces of the puzzle yet.

I believe you're more into a headless chicken thing with athletes running around and use brutal force playing rugby.

Personally I prefer football... I see you forgot the defence in your "six things".

I don't need to think about the defence - that's all that ever seems to be thought about at the club as it is and it's been the case since the days of Adams and Levein.

Hell, even reborn attacking fanatic Holloway played with 8 defenders when he managed at Leicester.

I don't know what it is about the place. Go on - name me an attacking manager or coach at the club since Adams apart from sacrifical lamb Sousa.

We never go near em, not even with the reserves. Levein, Kelly, Holloway, Megson, Pearson, Taggart, Stowell, Powell ... the club's been constantly awash with people who are defence-minded...and the only worthwhile success has gone to the attackers of the Academy.

But if you want me to make mention of defenders you're welcome. They need to be mean bastards who are able to pass the ball and support quickly just the same as attackers. Two converted wingers with attitude, Heskey and a fit Tunchev-type might suit.

My idea of attack is with all guns blazing all the time, and the fastest closing down you can imagine. I'd have a potential scorer in every outfield position and everyone would be able to deliver consistent one or two-touch passes. They would move forwards and backwards as one, no fear and no doubts.

They would live to score goals and to enjoy every second they were out there giving the crowd something to cheer. Their success would be measured in decibels.

Have you ever seen our crowd trooping home after a defeat? What a sorry sight.

Well I'd play em a video of that and I'd play it again before smashing it and consigning it to the bin. Then I'd play em a video of the fans cheering a fabulous victory and see which stirred em most and which they wanted to represent their efforts for the afternoon.

No goals? Hardly any shots on sodding target? It wouldn't happen and it wouldn't exist.

A 100 goals wouldn't guarantee promotion but it would sure set the opposition a target. And that's what we'd go for - and by the earliest date possible!

In fact there'd be a little sign as our players leave their dressing room....

Scoring NIL gets you nothing!

[Thracian]

I think it might have been when you said.

In regards to goals, we've only scored 5 fewer than we did in the whole of last season, and since Sven took over we've scored more goals than 18 other sides in this division, so I'm not really sure what you're on about.

You're right about the rush of goals under Sven and no-one was more pleased to celebrate them than I was - until they stopped.

And where did those goals come from. Lots of quick, crisp, pass-and-move football with movement in every direction, full-backs eager to support and people trying their hardest to get in the box.

But not now. It's all been abandoned in the fields of fear and on the bonfire of self-doubt. Apart from three goals against hapless Scunthorpe, we've scored just three goals in our last five games and, worse still, we've seized completely as a team.

As the doubts have crept in so more and more players have stopped making the selfless runs, stopped having a speculative pop at goal, stopped trying to take people on and stopped trying to play their fast one-twos.

In past parlance they've started hiding, started avoiding being seen to do something that my cost us or single them out for criticism. Those things are the sure signs of fear in a team. Because a confident team will try everything and anything.

In theatre terms the last few weeks represented six opening nights - six days when we needed to be seen at our best. You'd think that might mean even faster passing and even more shots but no. We quit, we didn't try to pass the ball properly at all. Anyone who saw the Cardiff, Norwich or Portsmouth games could surely have no doubt about it. We froze in the headlights.

We didn't go down with all guns blazing, peppering the woodwork or forcing breathtaking saves. We never attempted to do what had served us so well but simply surrendered ground meekly, developed no tempo whatsoever and got exactly what we deserved.

[Babylon]

You're right about the rush of goals under Sven and no-one was more pleased to celebrate them than I was - until they stopped.

You do realise teams go through bad patches don't you?

If it carries on you might have a point, as it is it's been a handful of games. Don't you think you might be jumping the gun somewhat and going over the top. Not sure why i'm shocked by that though.

[ajthefox]

I don't need to think about the defence - that's all that ever seems to be thought about at the club as it is and it's been the case since the days of Adams and Levein.

Hell, even reborn attacking fanatic Holloway played with 8 defenders when he managed at Leicester.

I don't know what it is about the place. Go on - name me an attacking manager or coach at the club since Adams apart from sacrifical lamb Sousa.

We never go near em, not even with the reserves. Levein, Kelly, Holloway, Megson, Pearson, Taggart, Stowell, Powell ... the club's been constantly awash with people who are defence-minded...and the only worthwhile success has gone to the attackers of the Academy.

But if you want me to make mention of defenders you're welcome. They need to be mean bastards who are able to pass the ball and support quickly just the same as attackers. Two converted wingers with attitude, Heskey and a fit Tunchev-type might suit.

My idea of attack is with all guns blazing all the time, and the fastest closing down you can imagine. I'd have a potential scorer in every outfield position and everyone would be able to deliver consistent one or two-touch passes. They would move forwards and backwards as one, no fear and no doubts.

They would live to score goals and to enjoy every second they were out there giving the crowd something to cheer. Their success would be measured in decibels.

Have you ever seen our crowd trooping home after a defeat? What a sorry sight.

Well I'd play em a video of that and I'd play it again before smashing it and consigning it to the bin. Then I'd play em a video of the fans cheering a fabulous victory and see which stirred em most and which they wanted to represent their efforts for the afternoon.

No goals? Hardly any shots on sodding target? It wouldn't happen and it wouldn't exist.

A 100 goals wouldn't guarantee promotion but it would sure set the opposition a target. And that's what we'd go for - and by the earliest date possible!

In fact there'd be a little sign as our players leave their dressing room....

Scoring NIL gets you nothing!

I admire your ambition but you are living in a dreamworld.

What you want is something that's perfect, you're talking about us as if we're supposed to be Barca or some all conquering giants. Ambition is great but it's not impossible to aim too high...

You talk about all these thing we are missing, but I'll bet if you'd have watched every game of most of the teams above us you'd be saying similar things.

We are missing a few things granted, but the way you talk about us as if we've never had the chance of going up because there are fundamental problems is rubbish. You can claim to have been saying it since day one but I defy you to say that after Bristol City when we won our 5th game on the bounce and were just 2 points behind Leeds that not one fibre of your body thought we might just make it.

Our squad is full of ability. If we were a little more gritty, a little more determined and had a little more confidence (that front I agree with you on) we'd be sitting pretty now I am sure of it.

The above deficiencies are significant but not fundamental so much as they are not constant. A manager who is more motivational (one thing I don't think Sven is quite good enough at) I believe would cover all of these bases to some extent, definitely the first two at least. And confidence well, all it takes is a good run of results to get that going.

[The Doctor]

But if you want me to make mention of defenders you're welcome. They need to be mean bastards who are able to pass the ball and support quickly just the same as attackers. Two converted wingers with attitude, Heskey and a fit Tunchev-type might suit.

Why are you so desperate for heskey to be a centre-back?

[Thracian]

You do realise teams go through bad patches don't you?

If it carries on you might have a point, as it is it's been a handful of games. Don't you think you might be jumping the gun somewhat and going over the top. Not sure why i'm shocked by that though.

I'm not at all convinced by the fundamental principal of "bad patches" as if they are something inevitable rather than something that might happen for any one of various particular reasons.

And our "bad patch" wasn't in any way a case of the performance being there but things going against us. It happened in part because we stopped doing all the things that we'd generally done well under Sven. Worse still it happened consistently when we played against decent opposition.

We let them dictate. Cardiff was perhaps the best example because we passed the ball well enouigh for the first 25 minutes and might have had a goal.

But when we conceded, all the faith and belief that allowed us to dictate possession disappeared and never really reappeared across all the other matches I mentioned.

That, to me, is nothing to do with a bad patch.

It's to do with a lack of faith in what we'd been trying to do under Sven. Had we played as we did against QPR and lost a few in a row - or if we'd played with the urgency we showed in the last five minutes of a couple of those games - I'd have been more inclined to accept what you say.

But we didn't. We surrendered ground, stopped working for one another, passed the buck. And, deep down, if you watched those games, you'll know we did.

[Thracian]

Why are you so desperate for heskey to be a centre-back?

Because Heskey is strong, reads the game well, strongish in the air, is quick enough over a short distance and can pass the ball quickly and accurately.

He'd still be able to supplement our attack in dead ball situations but Heskey has never really been a prolific striker, he's not going to improve in that department now and he's already shown himself to be injury prone which is a sure sign he needs a less taxing position (running wise).

If needs be Heskey could be utilised as an attacker, perhaps in a 3-4-3 or 3-3-4 system for short periods or when the need arises but it's not what I'd want for him full time. For me Heskey could extend his top quality career considerably as a centre-back. He's an intelligent footballer and one who's good enough to deal with most defensive situations in our league.

People talk about building from the back and, to me, Heskey would be different class to the careless, inconsistent and wandering Bamba or the always risky and vulnerable Mee.

We've already conceded 69 goals this season in our 44 games in which we really have struggled to find a consistently reliable back line. In those games we've managed just nine clean sheets - or one in 5 (roughly).

That's nowhere near good enough. I've already mentioned that I want defenders who are also potential scorers. Heskey would fit the bill and perhaps give us 6-8 goals a season - and certainly a threat from corners, free-kicks and special match situations.

With two 20/25 goals a season strikers, King capable of 12 that should guarantee us close to 65/67 goals from four players and only 23/25 to find from the rest such as Gallagher, Schlupp if he ever gets the chance and a proper winger. Simple. Job done.

[Foxblogger]

A 100 goals wouldn't guarantee promotion but it would sure set the opposition a target. And that's what we'd go for - and by the earliest date possible!

Not even Reading scored 100 goals when they won the league with 106 points - a football league record points total.

[Thracian]

I admire your ambition but you are living in a dreamworld.

What you want is something that's perfect, you're talking about us as if we're supposed to be Barca or some all conquering giants. Ambition is great but it's not impossible to aim too high...

quote]

I'm sure you're right. Silly me!

[Foxblogger]

Since when have we been defined by Reading's achievements?

I can only assume you're being deliberately obtuse.