Guest MattP Posted 4 October 2012 Posted 4 October 2012 In Obama's defence.... Mitt has alot to attack but hasnt been president in a difficult financial time.... Did enjoy the "promised to cut the deficit by half and managed to increase it three fold" line. Stuff like that sticks with people. He's came across as far more intelligent here than he has in other prepared speeches that were riddled with gaffes.
MPH Posted 4 October 2012 Posted 4 October 2012 Did enjoy the "promised to cut the deficit by half and managed to increase it three fold" line. Stuff like that sticks with people. He's came across as far more intelligent here than he has in other prepared speeches that were riddled with gaffes. The economy is definitely his strong point. He is a knowledgable man on buisness as he has owned several and made alot of money from them. He is indeed comeing accross very very well in this debate... I'd be very suprised if he doesnt score some points in the polls after this...
Guest MattP Posted 4 October 2012 Posted 4 October 2012 The economy is definitely his strong point. He is a knowledgable man on buisness as he has owned several and made alot of money from them. He is indeed comeing accross very very well in this debate... I'd be very suprised if he doesnt score some points in the polls after this... Can tell he's doing well by the fact he's came in from 6/1 to 4/1 on Betfair since it started.
MPH Posted 4 October 2012 Posted 4 October 2012 Can tell he's doing well by the fact he's came in from 6/1 to 4/1 on Betfair since it started.
Jordan Posted 4 October 2012 Posted 4 October 2012 Romney definitely won tonight, but history shows that 1) challengers nearly always get a boost after the first debate, 2) candidates who poll similarly to what Obama is polling now tend much more often to win elections, and 3) despite the myth of Kennedy vs. Nixon in 1960 (which were excellent debates, to be fair), debates often have only a small effect on the final outcome of the election (see Nate Silver's recent blog posts for more explanation). I thought Obama played tonight like a candidate in the lead and sat back and--to use my American football analogy once more--played the "umbrella defense." Sometimes the "prevent defense," which effectively concedes the first 15 yards from the line of scrimmage, "prevents you from winning," but tonight made me think Obama's team believes he's far enough ahead to give up some yards while making sure they don't give up a big touchdown-scoring play. Obama was not nearly as aggressive attacking Romney tonight (either on the "47 percent" comments, on being out of touch, tying him to Bush or tying him to the Tea Party) as he has been on the campaign trail. To Romney's credit, he got off to a great start tonight, with nice, sharp, concise point-by-point explanations of his (new?) tax plans and economic vision, and he hit hardest with one-liners that seemed like they came organically as opposed to the "zingers" his campaign team promised he was working on. I think most viewers tuned out early (it was not very exciting stuff), but that probably helped Romney, because his attacks later on were more dull. The worst part for Romney was repeating the "Obama will cut $716 billion from Medicare" attack that was started by Paul Ryan at the GOP convention but was soundly trashed by "fact-checkers" almost immediately afterwards, and has shown that it is an attack that has backfired more than anything. Romney would have done best to ditch that and come up with a new attack on Medicare. I found it odd tonight that while Romney had a distinct edge in snapshot polls as to who "won" the debate, and who did a better job convincing Americans he was a leader on specific issues than before the debate, that Obama still did much better in "likeability" polls. This either tells me that the election really is a popularity contest, or that nearly all voters have already made their mind up. In any case, considering what I wrote above, it will be interesting checking the polls over the next two weeks to see if there's anything more than a minor bounce towards Romney, which could tell a lot about how this campaign will finish. The next steps for Obama's campaign will be to come out with a fact-checking assault on Romney's comments tonight to blunt his attacks, and make sure Joe Biden is in good shape for next Thursday, because the spry Paul Ryan will be going for his jugular, facts be damned. Edit to add that, in the now six presidential campaigns in which I've watched the debates, tonight's performance by moderator Jim Lehrer was the single most incompetent job I've ever seen. There was essentially no format, the debate nearly ran over schedule, his questions were just a minor inconvenience to what the candidates wanted to say, he was talked over time and time again, and he gave Obama much too much time (I could tell the whole way, but those who actually kept stats said Obama was allowed to speak for fully four more minutes than Romney). I remember the good ol' days of the presidential debates done in this particular format, where candidate #1 was asked a question was given 2 minutes to answer, Candidate #2 got 90 seconds to respond, and Candidate #1 was allowed a 60-second rebuttal, and repeat with the order reversed. It wasn't the best format for forensics, but at least there was structure, and it required candidates to actually have debating skills. Tonight was just a mess.
MPH Posted 4 October 2012 Posted 4 October 2012 Romney definitely won tonight, but history shows that 1) challengers nearly always get a boost after the first debate, 2) candidates who poll similarly to what Obama is polling now tend much more often to win elections, and 3) despite the myth of Kennedy vs. Nixon in 1960 (which were excellent debates, to be fair), debates often have only a small effect on the final outcome of the election (see Nate Silver's recent blog posts for more explanation). I thought Obama played tonight like a candidate in the lead and sat back and--to use my American football analogy once more--played the "umbrella defense." Sometimes the "prevent defense," which effectively concedes the first 15 yards from the line of scrimmage, "prevents you from winning," but tonight made me think Obama's team believes he's far enough ahead to give up some yards while making sure they don't give up a big touchdown-scoring play. Obama was not nearly as aggressive attacking Romney tonight (either on the "47 percent" comments, on being out of touch, tying him to Bush or tying him to the Tea Party) as he has been on the campaign trail. To Romney's credit, he got off to a great start tonight, with nice, sharp, concise point-by-point explanations of his (new?) tax plans and economic vision, and he hit hardest with one-liners that seemed like they came organically as opposed to the "zingers" his campaign team promised he was working on. I think most viewers tuned out early (it was not very exciting stuff), but that probably helped Romney, because his attacks later on were more dull. The worst part for Romney was repeating the "Obama will cut $716 billion from Medicare" attack that was started by Paul Ryan at the GOP convention but was soundly trashed by "fact-checkers" almost immediately afterwards, and has shown that it is an attack that has backfired more than anything. Romney would have done best to ditch that and come up with a new attack on Medicare. I found it odd tonight that while Romney had a distinct edge in snapshot polls as to who "won" the debate, and who did a better job convincing Americans he was a leader on specific issues than before the debate, that Obama still did much better in "likeability" polls. This either tells me that the election really is a popularity contest, or that nearly all voters have already made their mind up. In any case, considering what I wrote above, it will be interesting checking the polls over the next two weeks to see if there's anything more than a minor bounce towards Romney, which could tell a lot about how this campaign will finish. The next steps for Obama's campaign will be to come out with a fact-checking assault on Romney's comments tonight to blunt his attacks, and make sure Joe Biden is in good shape for next Thursday, because the spry Paul Ryan will be going for his jugular, facts be damned. Edit to add that, in the now six presidential campaigns in which I've watched the debates, tonight's performance by moderator Jim Lehrer was the single most incompetent job I've ever seen. There was essentially no format, the debate nearly ran over schedule, his questions were just a minor inconvenience to what the candidates wanted to say, he was talked over time and time again, and he gave Obama much too much time (I could tell the whole way, but those who actually kept stats said Obama was allowed to speak for fully four more minutes than Romney). I remember the good ol' days of the presidential debates done in this particular format, where candidate #1 was asked a question was given 2 minutes to answer, Candidate #2 got 90 seconds to respond, and Candidate #1 was allowed a 60-second rebuttal, and repeat with the order reversed. It wasn't the best format for forensics, but at least there was structure, and it required candidates to actually have debating skills. Tonight was just a mess. the difference about last nights debate was that it was a very significant 'win' for Romney. he didnt just get a small 'win' ... it was HUGE... even CNN said the president looked tired and hesitiant. CNN said 67% of a poll gave Romney as the clear winner. only 25% of the CNN poll thought Obama won the debate. Thats a Huge difference especially for a CNN poll
Guest MattP Posted 4 October 2012 Posted 4 October 2012 Nicked this off a friends Facebook in NYC. Pretty accurate description of last night. Mitt Romney brought his best manic cokeface to the debate, and Barack Obama acted sort of how I act after I've taken an over-the-counter sleeping pill, forgotten about it, and then suddenly become distracted by something on the internet for like an hour and then tried to call my brother to talk about it ("So... it's like... weird and stuff. What's going on with you? How is Minnesota town? I mean Minneapolis? Sorry, I just got distracted. What was I saying?").
Jordan Posted 4 October 2012 Posted 4 October 2012 the difference about last nights debate was that it was a very significant 'win' for Romney. he didnt just get a small 'win' ... it was HUGE... even CNN said the president looked tired and hesitiant. CNN said 67% of a poll gave Romney as the clear winner. only 25% of the CNN poll thought Obama won the debate. Thats a Huge difference especially for a CNN poll John Kerry had a similarly decisive win in the first 2004 debate, but that wasn't even enough to put him over the top against W in November. There is still so much more left for Romney to do, but this was certainly the first item on his list and Republicans have good reason to cheer now that Romney checked it off. Most people that watch debates are committed voters that root for their guy. Undecided voters are actually less likely to watch debates than likely voters that have made their mind. But it will help Romney that the 2nd-hand reports undecided voters are seeing today all tell them Romney was the big winner. Ultimately, the election will come down to the game on the ground. Obama's ground game was superb in 2008 and his get-out-the-vote apparatus was fantastic. However, there is an enthusiasm deficit from this year to 2008. Obama could let his current polling lead disappear on November 6 if his campaign and volunteers get discouraged and voter turnout is lower than they hope. Obama didn't commit any game-changing gaffes, but if his supporters start seeing more things like last night that dampen their enthusiasm, those will add up and his team's spirit may go down.
BoneDog Posted 5 October 2012 Posted 5 October 2012 The most apt description of the first 'debate' I've seen so far is 'tepid'. I feel for the people of the USA if these two clowns are their only hope Mind you it's probably the same everywhere - it certainly is here in the UK.
MPH Posted 6 October 2012 Posted 6 October 2012 The most apt description of the first 'debate' I've seen so far is 'tepid'. I feel for the people of the USA if these two clowns are their only hope Mind you it's probably the same everywhere - it certainly is here in the UK. yeah i was going to say.... good job England has David Cameron to fall back on!
Guest MattP Posted 11 October 2012 Posted 11 October 2012 Be interesting tonight. Romney in from 5/1 to 2/1 now with Republicans surging in the polls, the long legged mack daddy needs a hell of a performance tonight to stop the tide.
Guest MattP Posted 11 October 2012 Posted 11 October 2012 John Kerry had a similarly decisive win in the first 2004 debate, but that wasn't even enough to put him over the top against W in November. Let's be honest though, he should have shouldn't he? Some very dodgy stuff went on.
Knightonian Posted 13 October 2012 Posted 13 October 2012 Pro-Life, Family values, Tea Party Republican pressures his mistress to get an abortion: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/10/scott-desjarlais-abortion-pro-life_n_1953136.html Republican candidate endorses death penalty for 'rebellious' children: http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/10/08/arkansas-republican-endorses-death-penalty-for-children/
Mack Posted 13 October 2012 Posted 13 October 2012 Obama's problem is that he is a decent guy. And it speaks volumes about modern day politics that the spiteful venom spitting old school pro politician is doing better than a genuine bloke.
Alexikokopops Posted 15 October 2012 Posted 15 October 2012 That's the biggest bird shit argument ever. How about this?
Jordan Posted 16 October 2012 Posted 16 October 2012 How about this? Well, it's certainly a lot funnier than a horrible Photoshop job of some weird gigantic eagle-like thing wearing an evil clown mask. But putting aside snark for a moment, I describe myself as a New Deal, New Frontier, Great Society Democrat. I believe government has a solemn obligation to protect the safety and prosperity of its people and to ensure equality of opportunity in all areas of life. I also believe in government of bold ideas and initiatives for the public good. The sweeping domestic economic and civil rights programs that I alluded to above did so much to improve the well-being of our people and our way of life. Yet, take a step back and look at the leaders who championed those initiatives: Franklin D. Roosevelt was from an extremely wealthy, politically powerful family, as was John F. Kennedy. It may be said that Lyndon B. Johnson's life in public service was greatly driven by lust for power, but it was also inspired by a passion to give every American the chance to succeed--a passion that helped the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act and the "War on Poverty" become law. As an aside, some foreign policy decisions--namely Vietnam--could hardly be considered enlightened, but it is worth emphasizing just how important these bold Democratic initiatives were (and still are) to my country. If the only way you look at presidential elections and voting just in terms of whether or not rich, mostly white guys will be in control, or whether the United States will maintain an aggressive, neo-imperialist foreign policy, then who cares? But I guarantee you that America would look a whole lot different--and would be a hell of a lot worse off--had those well-connected white guys named above not won their elections. I still see elections for federal office--especially the Presidential election--as a choice between one side fighting to preserve and strengthen the grand liberal initiatives that forged a new, stronger America and one that has been trying to undo that progress and preserve oligarchy for the past 80 years. I see this election as very much a continuation of that. Furthermore, I hear echoes of FDR in this campaign, and (although on a different scale, with different problems in different eras) see many resemblances between the fight over Obama's recovery plans and "Obamacare" to the political struggle over the New Deal. If you read this 1936 speech by FDR starting with, "In the spring of 1933," but change the examples to better fit modern culture, the similarities between then and now are almost uncanny. Even the analogies used by FDR are almost analogous to Obama's jokes today. In the summer of 1933' date=' a nice old gentleman wearing a silk hat fell off the end of a pier. He was unable to swim. A friend ran down the pier, dived overboard and pulled him out; but the silk hat floated off with the tide. After the old gentleman had been revived, he was effusive in his thanks. He praised his friend for saving his life. Today, three years later, the old gentleman is berating his friend because the silk hat was lost.[/quote']Many of the Republicans who are running right now' date=' these are the exact same folks who spent the last decade driving our economy into a ditch. And once we were elected, Joe and I, we put on our boots, we went down into that ditch. It was muddy and dusty down there and it was hot. And we started pushing on that car to get it out of the ditch. And we had a whole bunch of folks like Joe Sestak helping us push that car out of the ditch. (Applause.)And every once in a while, we'd look up at the Republicans. They were -- they had driven into the ditch, but they had gotten out and they were kind of taking a break, fanning themselves and sipping on a Slurpee, watching us do all the work. And every once in a while they'd say, why don't you push harder? You're not pushing the right way, Obama. But they didn't help. And after pushing and pushing over these last 20 months, finally we've got that car out of the ditch. (Applause.) Now, the car is a little dented up. The fender is a little busted. It needs a tune-up. But it's moving. It's pointing in the right direction. We're on level ground now. We're starting to make repairs. And suddenly we get a tap on our shoulder and we look back and who is it? It's the Republicans. And they say --what are they saying? -- they say, we want the keys back.[/quote']
MPH Posted 16 October 2012 Posted 16 October 2012 Until January when the car engine is likely to break again....
davieG Posted 16 October 2012 Posted 16 October 2012 Romney's tax plans revealed - http://www.romneytaxplan.com/
Zingari Posted 16 October 2012 Posted 16 October 2012 Romney's tax plans revealed - http://www.romneytaxplan.com/ you got me
MPH Posted 16 October 2012 Posted 16 October 2012 Romney's tax plans revealed - http://www.romneytaxplan.com/
Guest MattP Posted 17 October 2012 Posted 17 October 2012 Cracking stuff this. Obama back on form, Romney walking up to him and staring him out.
MPH Posted 17 October 2012 Posted 17 October 2012 Cracking stuff this. Obama back on form, Romney walking up to him and staring him out. thought a fight was about to break out....
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