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The US Presidential Elections.

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Posted

He's already threatened to give china a slap, and said something unwise about Russia too, not to mention pissing off his biggest ally, us.

He'll get the troops out of Afghanistan.

(via Iran)

Posted

From what I've read and seen the whole American election system is a joke.

As for these two candidates Mitt seems to be as he appears - an idiot. Obama seems to not be as he appears but the veil has been pierced, incompetent wannabee do gooder who has become what he detests - a fake.

Posted

Thanks for the hat tips. Yes, I am a it of a dork about this stuff, but I love talking about it. So, I'll write a little more, if you don't mind... :D

I'm going to be in New Hampshire this weekend to play sports and drink booze, so while I'll not be following the news as closely as I should, I'll at least get some sort of a first-hand look to see if the Granite State's 4 electoral votes really are up for grabs (Mitt Romney certainly hopes they are).

The liberal Northeast has become a Democratic stronghold in recent presidential elections, but New Hampshire has perhaps become more like sky blue relative to New England's dark navy tint. You may recall the 2000 election, with all of the shenanigans in Florida--all of that would have been rendered moot had Gore not lost New Hampshire to Bush despite sweeping the rest of New England.

New Hampshire (like Vermont) was a reliable Republican state until the 1990s, but political realignment and changing demographics have turned the state more blue. A lot of Republican voters there are like old-time "Rockefeller Republicans," very much pro-capitalist but culturally liberal and in favor of government initiatives to protect consumers. Moderate northeast Republicans have been left without a home as the party has shifted to the right, and some elected officials of that persuasion have either switched to the Democratic Party or, more commonly, left the GOP to become independent. This is much like how past Southern conservative Democrats have now become Republicans, but political realignment is another topic altogether.

There is also a small yet significant demographic in NH with a libertarian bent (I mean, the state has "LIVE FREE OR DIE" on its license plates). Whether or not libertarian Republicans will vote for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson over Romney in a close election remains to be seen--likewise for the environmentalists and hippies (not as many in NH as VT) with Jill Stein of Greens versus Obama.

A brief note on Johnson and Stein: Third party candidates are not expected to influence the outcome of the election, but I think there is a small chance that the choices I mentioned above could have a little bit of an effect on Colorado's voting.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-20163081

Here's the answer to my question from a couple of days ago.

$2.5bn

that's $20 a vote

300,000 ads run in just 1 month

How can this be right?

Well, I guess we now know what you meant by "campaigning" in scare quotes. However, you didn't completely answer your own question; the figures quoted in that article only reflect the state of the Presidential campaign. Just think about how much money is being spent on Senate, House and Governor campaigns!

According to the FEC, $1.7 billion has been given to Congressional campaigns so far, with $1.5b of that spent.

http://www.fec.gov/disclosurehs/hsnational.do

I'm on my phone, so I can't be bothered looking up Governor race spending. That's not to mention downballot campaigns for state and local offices. Also, there is a lot of money being spent on statewide ballot initiatives... So adding the true total of campaign spending is very difficult. One notable initiative is the proposed Amendment 1 in Minnesota, which would amend the constitution to ban gay marriage in the state. While the battle isn't as fierce as, say, California's Proposition 8 a few years ago, and the spending on that issue is but a drop in the bucket in Minnesota as it was in California, it is still a bitterly-contested issue. I know Catholic groups alone have spent about $2 million on pro-Amendment 1 efforts.

I'm sure all of that makes you feel even better about the American system! Seriously, though, I'll say it again: IMO, for democracy's sake, Citizens United must be overturned. "McCain-Feingold," a previous law that placed restrictions on campaign financing until it was killed by Citizens United, wasn't perfect, but it stemmed the tide of rampant corporate "soft money" spending somewhat (and it also represents one of the last great honest attempts by two senators to reach across the aisle for the common good.)

As an aside, anybody that supports marriage equality, likes snark and doesn't mind foul language owes it to him or herself to read the open letters and articles that Minnesota Vikings punter Chris Kluwe has written with regards to this issue (notably, one letter to a Maryland politician from which the term "lustful cockmonster" has gained both fame and infamy).

Posted

As an aside, anybody that supports marriage equality, likes snark and doesn't mind foul language owes it to him or herself to read the open letters and articles that Minnesota Vikings punter Chris Kluwe has written with regards to this issue (notably, one letter to a Maryland politician from which the term "lustful cockmonster" has gained both fame and infamy).

Oh my. That really is something.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-kluwe/an-open-letter-to-emmett-burns_b_1866216.html

Posted

As an aside, anybody that supports marriage equality, likes snark and doesn't mind foul language owes it to him or herself to read the open letters and articles that Minnesota Vikings punter Chris Kluwe has written with regards to this issue (notably, one letter to a Maryland politician from which the term "lustful cockmonster" has gained both fame and infamy).

I learnt a few new expressions today, particularly 'fromunda'.

Brilliant!! lol

Posted

Right. Most pundits were all in line with the "it all comes down to Ohio" analysis early in the campaign season. Plus ça change...

Obama is gaining ground in the polls in Florida, and it is a close race there, but I'd still take an even bet on Romney winning that state. Romney has a slight edge on the polls in FL, and early voting suggests a narrower gap between Democratic voters and Republican voters than 2008, and I expect Romney to outperform Obama among FL voters that cast their ballots on Election Day.

And it, essentially, is all coming down to Ohio. With OH, Obama looks like he's got enough of a cushion to hold on even if he performs below expectations and his electoral "firewall" starts cracking. Plus, I cannot see Romney grabbing OH without grabbing a bunch of other battleground states. Republican partisans are holding out hope for an upset other Rust Belt states, but I don't see Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan flipping.

Hope nobody you know got caught up in the storm disaster, Jordan - and that you had some good sporting and drinking in New Hampshire...and have returned ready to resume your "mission to explain"....

Some queries regarding the voting inclinations of particular states, if you have a spare minute - and please forgive my implicit ignorance about the USA....I'm very interested in the place but have only ever spent 2.5 days there (LA-Phoenix-Nogales):

- How come Obama has a chance in Florida? I know there's a sizeable working-class black population, but also presumably a hell of a lot of property-owning white retirees and anti-Castro Cubans...maybe a lot of low-paid service sector employees or are many of the white retirees East Coast liberals as opposed to Southern Bible Belt types?

- Why is New Hampshire more marginal than other New England states: are people there now more into the "free outdoor" libertarian or hunting/shooting/fishing lifestyle or are there particular economic/political/demographic factors that I'm unaware of?

- Why are Nevada & Colorado marginal (and New Mexico an Obama probable), yet Arizona is solid Republican? I'd assumed that Nevada & Colorado are fairly wealthy places, but maybe they have a lot of service sector (Las Vegas, Aspen) or I.T. jobs or something? I know that Arizona has a lot of Hispanics, but then so does Bush's adopted Texan homeland, I suppose..

- How come Virginia & North Carolina are "battleground states", yet West Virginia & Georgia seem to be solidly pro-Romney? I thought West Virginia used to be big on mining/industry (maybe the "used to" is the clue?), while I have this image of Virginia & North Carolina as quite genteel, mainly white southern-ish states. I think Georgia has a bigger black population, doesn't it...yet doesn't figure among Obama's targets....Is it because there are more white evangelists down in Georgia so Obama would glean very few white votes (as per Deep South states, where I assume that the vote divides strongly down racial lines)?

- How about Iowa? Is that more industrial than I imagine it? I imagine lots of prairies, agribusiness and small towns (Des Moines is no Chicago, is it?)...naturally Republican territory in my imagining, but presumably I'm missing something...

Until such time as I finally manage to achieve my dream and go on an American road trip, this is about the closest that I get to understanding a bit more about that fascinating, diverse, complex and bonkers country over there!

Posted

Hope nobody you know got caught up in the storm disaster, Jordan - and that you had some good sporting and drinking in New Hampshire...and have returned ready to resume your "mission to explain"....

Some queries regarding the voting inclinations of particular states, if you have a spare minute - and please forgive my implicit ignorance about the USA....I'm very interested in the place but have only ever spent 2.5 days there (LA-Phoenix-Nogales):

- How come Obama has a chance in Florida? I know there's a sizeable working-class black population, but also presumably a hell of a lot of property-owning white retirees and anti-Castro Cubans...maybe a lot of low-paid service sector employees or are many of the white retirees East Coast liberals as opposed to Southern Bible Belt types?

- Why is New Hampshire more marginal than other New England states: are people there now more into the "free outdoor" libertarian or hunting/shooting/fishing lifestyle or are there particular economic/political/demographic factors that I'm unaware of?

- Why are Nevada & Colorado marginal (and New Mexico an Obama probable), yet Arizona is solid Republican? I'd assumed that Nevada & Colorado are fairly wealthy places, but maybe they have a lot of service sector (Las Vegas, Aspen) or I.T. jobs or something? I know that Arizona has a lot of Hispanics, but then so does Bush's adopted Texan homeland, I suppose..

- How come Virginia & North Carolina are "battleground states", yet West Virginia & Georgia seem to be solidly pro-Romney? I thought West Virginia used to be big on mining/industry (maybe the "used to" is the clue?), while I have this image of Virginia & North Carolina as quite genteel, mainly white southern-ish states. I think Georgia has a bigger black population, doesn't it...yet doesn't figure among Obama's targets....Is it because there are more white evangelists down in Georgia so Obama would glean very few white votes (as per Deep South states, where I assume that the vote divides strongly down racial lines)?

- How about Iowa? Is that more industrial than I imagine it? I imagine lots of prairies, agribusiness and small towns (Des Moines is no Chicago, is it?)...naturally Republican territory in my imagining, but presumably I'm missing something...

Until such time as I finally manage to achieve my dream and go on an American road trip, this is about the closest that I get to understanding a bit more about that fascinating, diverse, complex and bonkers country over there!

This might help

Posted

Not sure if anyone posted but theres a site with an interesting quiz that tells you which candidates you agree with.

www.isidewith.com

I got 76% Obama and 8% Romney.

I am 85% Jill Stein, Green

84% Obama

7% Titt Romney

Posted

93% Jill Stein (Green)

79% Barack Obama (Democrat)

68% Gary Johnson (Libertarian)

11% Mitt Romney (Republican)

86% Green, 82% Democrat, 24% Libertarian, 4% Republican.

Posted

I didn't even know there were other candidates other than Obama & Romney

85% Jill Stein (Green)

71% Barack Obama (Democrat)

68% Gary Johnson (Libertarian)

16% Mitt Romney (Republican)

90% Green, 84% Democrat, 37% Libertarian, 23% Republican.

Posted

92% Jil Stein

84% Barack Obama

75% Gary Johnson

2% Mitt Romney

95% Democrat 95% Green 41% Libertarian 1% Republican

Posted

Obama 95%; Stein 91%; Anderson 73%; Johnson 58%; Goode 5%; Romney 4%

Democrat 98%; Green 91%; Libertarian 19%; Republican 2%

Thought I'd be a bit more Green and Libertarian than that...disappointingly soggy left

Posted

Barrack 76

Mitt 72

Johnson 72

I did it again because I missed the importance slides at the left. How is everyone getting such low scores for mitt? Even if I put on my faggiest scarf before I answer I still can't get that liberal

Posted

Barrack 76

Mitt 72

Johnson 72

I did it again because I missed the importance slides at the left. How is everyone getting such low scores for mitt? Even if I put on my faggiest scarf before I answer I still can't get that liberal

Not sure, i was surprised to only get 8% Romney and i didn't consider my answers particularly leftish.

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