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ThurnbyLodgeFox

Will we do the unlikely

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Posted

Doesn't matter any more what other team do. Its in our hands. Get 14 more points and we are guaranteed promotion.

Let's get it done ASAP

I have tickets for the QPR game but if it's before then brill anyway

Guest Foxin_mad
Posted

Same here, got to work thanks to those $ky Idiots

Posted

Really hope it is not against sheff weds as that is the only game i will have missed this season.

Same i'm on holiday.
Posted

We will win the league when we play QPR at home imo as far as promotion is concerned it will probably be Sheffield Wednesday at home it would be nice to secure it at Burnley away but we are asking other teams to help us out.

Posted

I'd love it if we got promoted after the QPR game and also ending their automatic promotion hopes at the same time  lol

I'd love it if we got promoted after the QPR game and also putting them out of the top six  at the same time

Posted

A few weeks ago, I thought QPR. 

 

Then we ploughed on and everyone else dorpped points.  Then I thought it was Reading.

 

Now I think it's going to be Wednesday at home.  While I won't be there in person the stag's head will be an excellent silver medal location for celebrating. 

 

Almost hope it is Wednesday so we can seal it ourselves before the other teams play rather than knowing before we go out at Reading.  

Posted

Similar to many I can't see it being against Burnley.

 

Ideally this would be a home game, Friday night against Sheff Wed could epic.

 

I want something to be riding on the QPR game, maybe the game we win the league? Something would be overly satisfying about doing it against them.

Posted

I have been doing the Maths and it is looking more and more likely it will be Wigan away. The maths below show three different scenarios with what I believe (subjective of course and I'm sure loads will disagree) as the most likely result and scenario 2 as what I believe again as the 2nd most likely result in the games and scenario 3 what I feel is the least likely result. I hope it all makes sense.

 
 
Derby
Derby v Nottingham Forest 
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 3 points
least likely = 0 points
 
Ipswich v Derby
Most likely = 0 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 3 points
 
Derby v Charlton
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
QPR
Middlesbrough v QPR
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 0 points
least likely = 3 points
 
QPR v Wigan 
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 3 points
least likely = 0 Points
 
QPR v Blackpool
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
Wigan
Wigan v Watford
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
QPR v Wigan
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 0 points
least likely = 3 points
 
Bolton v Wigan
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
So to summarise and give totals to my madness (this season has sent me delirious) 
I believe the most likely set of results will mean the following points total.
Most likely results (Scenario 1)
Derby = 4 points
QPR =  5 points
Wigan = 7 points
 
2nd most likely results (Scenario 2)
Derby = 3 points
QPR =  4 points
Wigan = 2 points
 
Least likely results (Scenario 3)
Derby = 3 points
QPR =  3 points
Wigan = 3 points
 
What this means for us and points needed to secure promotion.
 
Scenario 1 - If we win against Blackburn, Yeovil and Burnley it would put us on 89 points but QPR could still get 89 points and Wigan could get 91 points so we could secure promotion by winning or drawing at Wigan it would also mean if we drew against one of the other teams before the Wigan game a win at Wigan would also secure promotion as Wigan could only then achieve 88 or 89 points and we would be on 90 points. 
 
Scenario 2 - If we win against Blackburn and Yeovil and then beat Burnley it would mean we would be on 89 points and promotion would be secured later that day when we are not playing as each of the teams drop points and the maximum Derby could achieve would be 87, QPR 88 and Wigan 85
 
Sceanrio 3 - If we win against Blackburn and Yeovil and then  beat Burnley again it would mean that promotion could be secured without us playing after the Wigan game.
 
What I am trying to say is that I believe it points towards the Wigan away game, I know I will be shot down as there are so many ifs and buts, BUT scenario one also has the most leaway in terms of a win at the DW stadium securing it for us. 
 
Hope I havent bored you too much with this and see you at Ewood on Saturday. 
Posted

Similar to many I can't see it being against Burnley.

Ideally this would be a home game, Friday night against Sheff Wed could epic.

I want something to be riding on the QPR game, maybe the game we win the league? Something would be overly satisfying about doing it against them.

Would be lovely to win the title against QPR got to admit that would be sweet
Posted

 

I have been doing the Maths and it is looking more and more likely it will be Wigan away. The maths below show three different scenarios with what I believe (subjective of course and I'm sure loads will disagree) as the most likely result and scenario 2 as what I believe again as the 2nd most likely result in the games and scenario 3 what I feel is the least likely result. I hope it all makes sense.

 
 
Derby
Derby v Nottingham Forest 
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 3 points
least likely = 0 points
 
Ipswich v Derby
Most likely = 0 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 3 points
 
Derby v Charlton
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
QPR
Middlesbrough v QPR
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 0 points
least likely = 3 points
 
QPR v Wigan 
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 3 points
least likely = 0 Points
 
QPR v Blackpool
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
Wigan
Wigan v Watford
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
QPR v Wigan
Most likely = 1 point
2nd most likely = 0 points
least likely = 3 points
 
Bolton v Wigan
Most likely = 3 points
2nd most likely = 1 point
least likely = 0 points
 
So to summarise and give totals to my madness (this season has sent me delirious) 
I believe the most likely set of results will mean the following points total.
Most likely results (Scenario 1)
Derby = 4 points
QPR =  5 points
Wigan = 7 points
 
2nd most likely results (Scenario 2)
Derby = 3 points
QPR =  4 points
Wigan = 2 points
 
Least likely results (Scenario 3)
Derby = 3 points
QPR =  3 points
Wigan = 3 points
 
What this means for us and points needed to secure promotion.
 
Scenario 1 - If we win against Blackburn, Yeovil and Burnley it would put us on 89 points but QPR could still get 89 points and Wigan could get 91 points so we could secure promotion by winning or drawing at Wigan it would also mean if we drew against one of the other teams before the Wigan game a win at Wigan would also secure promotion as Wigan could only then achieve 88 or 89 points and we would be on 90 points. 
 
Scenario 2 - If we win against Blackburn and Yeovil and then beat Burnley it would mean we would be on 89 points and promotion would be secured later that day when we are not playing as each of the teams drop points and the maximum Derby could achieve would be 87, QPR 88 and Wigan 85
 
Sceanrio 3 - If we win against Blackburn and Yeovil and then  beat Burnley again it would mean that promotion could be secured without us playing after the Wigan game.
 
What I am trying to say is that I believe it points towards the Wigan away game, I know I will be shot down as there are so many ifs and buts, BUT scenario one also has the most leaway in terms of a win at the DW stadium securing it for us. 
 
Hope I havent bored you too much with this and see you at Ewood on Saturday. 

 

 

Ow, my head!! 

 

Seriously though full marks for being comprehensive!

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