2015 Election season ..........stuff it in here.

[Hirsty The Blue 94]

Wait this chap is claiming he singlehandidly brought down the Lib Dems because of an internet blog which probably under 0.0001% of the electorate would read?

[leicsmac]

The last couple of pages of this have been pure: 

 

[MooseBreath]

Expressing the debt and deficit as a percentage of gdp is pretty normal. Maybe on the campaign poster they should have clarified it for the simpletons, but it was a campaign poster after all, hardly the place for small print. In any case if you don't understand the usual method of expressing a deficit then you probably shouldn't be voting on economic issues.

This is, for me, yet another case of the left inventing problems this election season. The deficit is down, which is a step in the right direction, yet they'll ignore that and focus on the measurement technique. The deficit is down, whichever way you measure it. There is no problem there.

[Webbo]

Who is Ann Rand and why am I supposed to care what she thinks?

[Guest Bilo]

Expressing the debt and deficit as a percentage of gdp is pretty normal. Maybe on the campaign poster they should have clarified it for the simpletons, but it was a campaign poster after all, hardly the place for small print. In any case if you don't understand the usual method of expressing a deficit then you probably shouldn't be voting on economic issues.

This is, for me, yet another case of the left inventing problems this election season. The deficit is down, which is a step in the right direction, yet they'll ignore that and focus on the measurement technique. The deficit is down, whichever way you measure it. There is no problem there.

 

Despite what Blue Moon (we all know that's who this poster is, it's so blindingly obvious) says, the head of the OBR said as recently as October 2014 that "after a promising start, the deficit began to disappoint and overshot our forecast in 2012-13." This, in spite of particularly savage cuts, means the deficit isn't falling as quickly as it should and the fact that borrowing has gone almost completely haywire, with the Tories borrowing more in five years than the previous Labour government did in 13, shows that the Tories are certainly being economical with the truth on their handling of the economy.

 

 

Moreover, the national debt now stands at £1.43 trillion, a 7.2% rise within a year. These are facts that come from the ONS and the OBR among other financial watchdogs. It's normal practice to do your research rather than cherrypick what you've heard on Sky News and read in The Sun. 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11115235/Black-hole-in-UK-public-finances-widens-in-August.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11168941/Why-are-we-still-failing-to-reduce-the-deficit.html

 

When even the Telegraph and the Spectator are criticising the Tories for their handling of the economy, you know something is very much awry. You can smear those who point out the inaccuracies as 'simpletons' all you like, but the facts are staring us all in the face - these austerity measures aren't working as well as they should.

[leicsmac]

Who is Ann Rand and why am I supposed to care what she thinks?

 

Inventor of Objectivism, derider of any kind of altruism and possibly the most widespread author espousing self-interest as a virtue above all others of the last century?

 

Come on Webbs, I'm sure you've heard of her. If not, have a read - I think you'd agree with a fair bit of what she wrote (from an economic standpoint, anyway).

[Webbo]

I think you've misjudged me if you think I spend my time studying political theories.

[leicsmac]

I think you've misjudged me if you think I spend my time studying political theories.

 

Then perhaps I have misjudged as you seem pretty well-versed on the topic without having to fact-check yourself that much. Kudos.

 

But, seriously, if you do have the time consider my suggestion - I think you'd find her work intriguing, to say the least. (It's all in a fictional setting rather than actual political writing, so it's a bit less dry than what you might expect.)

[Jon the Hat]

It was a quote from a copper in the LM, in which he said, "anecdotally, I hear of beggars earning £200 a day.."

What kind of evidence is 'anecdotally'?

 

Presumably nicking beggars and finding £200 in cash on them?

[MooseBreath]

Despite what Blue Moon (we all know that's who this poster is, it's so blindingly obvious) says, the head of the OBR said as recently as October 2014 that "after a promising start, the deficit began to disappoint and overshot our forecast in 2012-13." This, in spite of particularly savage cuts, means the deficit isn't falling as quickly as it should and the fact that borrowing has gone almost completely haywire, with the Tories borrowing more in five years than the previous Labour government did in 13, shows that the Tories are certainly being economical with the truth on their handling of the economy.

Moreover, the national debt now stands at £1.43 trillion, a 7.2% rise within a year. These are facts that come from the ONS and the OBR among other financial watchdogs. It's normal practice to do your research rather than cherrypick what you've heard on Sky News and read in The Sun.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11115235/Black-hole-in-UK-public-finances-widens-in-August.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/11168941/Why-are-we-still-failing-to-reduce-the-deficit.html

When even the Telegraph and the Spectator are criticising the Tories for their handling of the economy, you know something is very much awry. You can smear those who point out the inaccuracies as 'simpletons' all you like, but the facts are staring us all in the face - these austerity measures aren't working as well as they should.

Try looking at articles that aren't half a year out of date. The latest figures for February 2015 show that we are now on target to achieve our annual deficit reduction targets, so everything you've said and linked to here is redundant.

[Guest Bilo]

Try looking at articles that aren't half a year out of date. The latest figures for February 2015 show that we are now on target to achieve our annual deficit reduction targets, so everything you've said and linked to here is redundant.

 

Are we ignoring the sky rocketing national debt then? Are we also to ignore the fact that they've failed, miserably, to eliminate the deficit as they claimed they would back in 2010? How about the fact that we've lost our top credit rating? 

 

A short term improvement in a godawful situation doesn't render everything in the past five years redundant, the Tories have not delivered on the economy. Given that the Tories' main focus and strength has traditionally been centred around the economy, this is a worry.

[MooseBreath]

Are we ignoring the sky rocketing national debt then? Are we also to ignore the fact that they've failed, miserably, to eliminate the deficit as they claimed they would back in 2010? How about the fact that we've lost our top credit rating?

A short term improvement in a godawful situation doesn't render everything in the past five years redundant, the Tories have not delivered on the economy. Given that the Tories' main focus and strength has traditionally been centred around the economy, this is a worry.

First you were talking about a campaign poster, then you talked about the deficit, now you're talking about something else again. You can keep moving the goalposts if you like, as long as you recognise that's what you're doing.

Of course the debt is still increasing and of course that's a problem, that's why deficit reduction is so important. I'm not ignoring that the tories have missed their five year deficit elimination target but what do you want me to say? If you set ambitious targets sometimes you won't hit them. What do you want to see, more cuts?

That's the deficit, the rest of the economy is booming. Job creation is at pretty much unprecedented levels, wages are storming ahead of inflation, gdp is growing at the fastest rate in the entire developed world.. just let that sink in for a minute, fastest growth in the entire developed world, jobs for everyone, wages going up. And you say they're not delivering on the economy? No idea what you're expecting in that case.

[Guest Bilo]

First you were talking about a campaign poster, then you talked about the deficit, now you're talking about something else again. You can keep moving the goalposts if you like, as long as you recognise that's what you're doing.

Of course the debt is still increasing and of course that's a problem, that's why deficit reduction is so important. I'm not ignoring that the tories have missed their five year deficit elimination target but what do you want me to say? If you set ambitious targets sometimes you won't hit them. What do you want to see, more cuts?

That's the deficit, the rest of the economy is booming. Job creation is at pretty much unprecedented levels, wages are storming ahead of inflation, gdp is growing at the fastest rate in the entire developed world.. just let that sink in for a minute, fastest growth in the entire developed world, jobs for everyone, wages going up. And you say they're not delivering on the economy? No idea what you're expecting in that case.

 

I'm talking about the economy as a whole - picking out certain elements and then saying that the whole lot is a success is disingenuous. It's not moving the goalposts, it's looking at the wider picture.

 

Job creation is something of a sham - low paid, insecure and low skilled jobs form a huge amount of the increase on the job market. For the first four years of the coalition government, inflation outpaced wage growth and increases in the minimum wage. An army of zero hour contracts, minimum wage jobs and self-employment is building the economic house on sand. Only now that inflation is at a record low, brought about by a fall in oil prices, are wages finally overtaking inflation. This though, is simply redressing the balance as wages haven't kept pace with inflation since the worldwide banking crisis.

 

Then there's the fastest growth schtick. It is true that of the major European economic powerhouses - the UK, France, Germany and Spain, that our economy is growing more quickly. However, it should be pointed out that the decision to keep the pound has meant that we've avoided the worst of the Eurozone crisis that has suckered in all of those nations. In terms of the world, we're not even close. China's rate of economic growth almost trebles ours and India's is more or less double according to the IMF.

 

As for worldwide economic growth, we're not even in the top 10. Nor are we the fastest growing in Europe.

 

 

There are of course a high number of developing/emerging economies on there - including nations with a higher percentage of national debt than us such as Ireland, but it blows apart some of the headline figures that have been touted to impress.

[Webbo]

You're surely not claiming that the govt has failed because growth isn't as fast as China?

[MooseBreath]

I'm talking about the economy as a whole - picking out certain elements and then saying that the whole lot is a success is disingenuous. It's not moving the goalposts, it's looking at the wider picture.

Job creation is something of a sham - low paid, insecure and low skilled jobs form a huge amount of the increase on the job market. For the first four years of the coalition government, inflation outpaced wage growth and increases in the minimum wage. An army of zero hour contracts, minimum wage jobs and self-employment is building the economic house on sand. Only now that inflation is at a record low, brought about by a fall in oil prices, are wages finally overtaking inflation. This though, is simply redressing the balance as wages haven't kept pace with inflation since the worldwide banking crisis.

Then there's the fastest growth schtick. It is true that of the major European economic powerhouses - the UK, France, Germany and Spain, that our economy is growing more quickly. However, it should be pointed out that the decision to keep the pound has meant that we've avoided the worst of the Eurozone crisis that has suckered in all of those nations. In terms of the world, we're not even close. China's rate of economic growth almost trebles ours and India's is more or less double according to the IMF.

As for worldwide economic growth, we're not even in the top 10. Nor are we the fastest growing in Europe.

There are of course a high number of developing/emerging economies on there - including nations with a higher percentage of national debt than us such as Ireland, but it blows apart some of the headline figures that have been touted to impress.

A lot of the new jobs have been low paid, which is useful because a lot of the formally unemployed were low skilled. But there are also an increasing amount of skills shortages for various professions and skilled occupation, which shows an abundance of jobs are available across the spectrum. If you were part of an active jobs market you'd have seen this for yourself. As a teacher I suspect you're insulated from it to a large degree.

I said we are the fastest growing economy in the developed world, nobody has ever tried to say our economy is growing faster than China or India. Specifying the developed world is important otherwise you're comparing apples and oranges. Successfully developing nations will always experience a growth surge that's not possible to recreate once you've reached developed status. Like a human being, an economy doesn't keep growing at the same rate throughout its life.

[Guest Bilo]

You're surely not claiming that the govt has failed because growth isn't as fast as China?

 

No, of course not. China is going to be THE superpower in years to come and India won't be far behind. If anything, the growth of Asia as an economic powerhouse suggests to me that the EU is both vital for Europe to keep up and in need of serious reform to ensure that it does. This is why UKIP are completely wrong to suggest our exit, but that's a separate (albeit related) issue.

 

What I'm saying is that the use of the headline figures is evidence of dishonesty. We're not the fastest growing economy in the world, and claims that we are are simply false.

 

The fact we're not growing as quickly as Poland and Ireland is a little more perturbing though - two Eurozone countries, one of which with a national debt of around 120% of its GDP.

[Guest Bilo]

I ruined Jermaine Beckford's career, he's playing for Preston now because of my internet criticism.

 

[Webbo]

The Euro zone is about the only region in the world that is going backwards economically. As for Ireland haven't they had even more austerity than us?

[Guest Bilo]

The Euro zone is about the only region in the world that is going backwards economically. As for Ireland haven't they had even more austerity than us?

 

After the complete collapse of the Celtic Tiger, I don't think they had much choice. They had it far worse than us. 

 

The recovery is fuelled, again, by low inflation and oil prices as well as tax cuts.

 

Their deficit was almost 33% in 2010 - which puts our problems into perspective. 

[MooseBreath]

No, of course not. China is going to be THE superpower in years to come and India won't be far behind. If anything, the growth of Asia as an economic powerhouse suggests to me that the EU is both vital for Europe to keep up and in need of serious reform to ensure that it does. This is why UKIP are completely wrong to suggest our exit, but that's a separate (albeit related) issue.

I don't see how china's growth makes any difference to whether or not we should be in the EU, but just a point on China, they are still miles behind us in gdp per capita, so it'll be a while before we need to worry about keeping up with them. Most of their growth is also based on low cost manufacturing which won't last. We're already seeing big manufacturers pull out of China due to rising costs, and there's also the long term threat of disruption to the traditional manufacturing process caused by things like 3d printing. We'll see who needs to catch up with who in ten years.

[Babylon]

Nelson said 'it shows that the Tory leadership is prepared to use dishonesty as a weapon in this election campaign.

I'm not going to get involved too much... but I'm fairly sure every single party will manipulate the stats in their favour. It's not just the blue lot that will use dishonesty.

[Guest Bilo]

I don't see how china's growth makes any difference to whether or not we should be in the EU, but just a point on China, they are still miles behind us in gdp per capita, so it'll be a while before we need to worry about keeping up with them. Most of their growth is also based on low cost manufacturing which won't last. We're already seeing big manufacturers pull out of China due to rising costs, and there's also the long term threat of disruption to the traditional manufacturing process caused by things like 3d printing. We'll see who needs to catch up with who in ten years.

 

Europe and America's insatiable demand for low cost electronics will keep them going for a while yet. You do make a good point about 3D printing and manufacturing though, it'll be very interesting to chart how that affects world trade. 

[Jon the Hat]

We should definitely take on the employment, Health and Safety and environmental practises of all those developing countries to boost growth.  I don't know why I didn't think of it before!

[MooseBreath]

Europe and America's insatiable demand for low cost electronics will keep them going for a while yet. You do make a good point about 3D printing and manufacturing though, it'll be very interesting to chart how that affects world trade.

There's a book from late last year called 'Fast Forward' in which the authors attempt to predict the impact of various near future technological advancements. They reckon 3d printing and robotics will more or less completely eradicate the need for human labour in the manufacturing process, and with that will go the advantage held by countries such as China who are reliant on low labour costs.

No idea if that will happen, seems to me that people have been predicting this robotic future for a long time, but combine some of that with increasing demands from Chinese citizens for higher wages and better working conditions and it could put an abrupt end to china's rise.

[Guest Bilo]

We should definitely take on the employment, Health and Safety and environmental practises of all those developing countries to boost growth.  I don't know why I didn't think of it before!

 

I really think people are deliberately missing the point here.

 

I'm not saying that we can emulate the likes of China, India et al in terms of growth.

 

The point is that we're told that our economy is the fastest growing in terms of GDP in the world. This is a blatant lie. I note that in recent days it's been reworded by the Tories to fastest growing DEVELOPED economy in the world, but this is not what was said at the start of the campaign. This is clear evidence that they tried to sell us a great headline figure of being the fastest growing major economy, got found out and reworded it. It's an honesty issue, not an argument that failure to achieve near 8% growth is a hideous catastrophe.

 

It's not even the fastest in the EU - Poland and Ireland are ahead of us. Poland was just about the EU country not to be completely battered by the banking crisis. There's a good article here on how it has managed to achieve its success.

 

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/future-development/posts/2015/02/11-poland-post-socialist-transition-piatkowski

 

With education such a significant factor in Polish success, will the teacher bashers now say that education doesn't create prosperity with a straight face?