Alf Bentley Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Starting to look interesting in Thanet South: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/05/ukip-dismiss-poll-nigel-farage-not-win-thanet-south-mp-tory The latest poll shows Farage 1% behind the Tory and only 1% ahead of Labour (in a seat where Labour would normally only stand a chance in a landslide) I saw another constituency poll for Thurrock showing UKIP narrowly ahead of Labour with the Tories third in what is currently a Tory seat (though highly marginal)....and UKIP were only just behind Labour in Grimsby (normally fairly solid Labour, though the longstanding MP, Austin Mitchell, is retiring) There could be some strange results in particular constituencies, depending on whether the local UKIP vote comes mainly from ex-Tory or ex-Labour voters or whatever. Tactical voting is going to come into it locally, too. In Thanet, it looks close enough between all 3 parties that it might not be a factor, but you could imagine Tories voting tactically for UKIP in Thurrock and Grimsby if they think their candidate is out of the running. I assume so, anyway. Some Tories won't want switch to UKIP, but I imagine some will - and I can't imagine that being counter-balanced by many Tories voting tactically for Labour to keep UKIP out! What will tactical voting be among Labour voters in constituencies where they're out of the running? Some might assume that they'd hold their noses and vote Tory to keep UKIP out, but I disagree. That might apply to some of the left-inclined middle classes, but I reckon a lot of working-class Labour voters might vote UKIP to keep the Tories out! That seemed to happen in the Clacton and Rochester byelections, where the Labour vote collapsed - whereas it didn't collapse at Heywood & Middleton, where Labour were still in the running (the Labour vote % barely shifted from 2010 figures; the narrowness of their victory was because UKIP gained a pile of votes from other sources - mainly the Tories, plus Lib Dems & non-voters.
SMX11 Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Starting to look interesting in Thanet South: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/05/ukip-dismiss-poll-nigel-farage-not-win-thanet-south-mp-tory The latest poll shows Farage 1% behind the Tory and only 1% ahead of Labour (in a seat where Labour would normally only stand a chance in a landslide) I saw another constituency poll for Thurrock showing UKIP narrowly ahead of Labour with the Tories third in what is currently a Tory seat (though highly marginal)....and UKIP were only just behind Labour in Grimsby (normally fairly solid Labour, though the longstanding MP, Austin Mitchell, is retiring) There could be some strange results in particular constituencies, depending on whether the local UKIP vote comes mainly from ex-Tory or ex-Labour voters or whatever. Tactical voting is going to come into it locally, too. In Thanet, it looks close enough between all 3 parties that it might not be a factor, but you could imagine Tories voting tactically for UKIP in Thurrock and Grimsby if they think their candidate is out of the running. I assume so, anyway. Some Tories won't want switch to UKIP, but I imagine some will - and I can't imagine that being counter-balanced by many Tories voting tactically for Labour to keep UKIP out! What will tactical voting be among Labour voters in constituencies where they're out of the running? Some might assume that they'd hold their noses and vote Tory to keep UKIP out, but I disagree. That might apply to some of the left-inclined middle classes, but I reckon a lot of working-class Labour voters might vote UKIP to keep the Tories out! That seemed to happen in the Clacton and Rochester byelections, where the Labour vote collapsed - whereas it didn't collapse at Heywood & Middleton, where Labour were still in the running (the Labour vote % barely shifted from 2010 figures; the narrowness of their victory was because UKIP gained a pile of votes from other sources - mainly the Tories, plus Lib Dems & non-voters. That thanet south poll is nonsense apparently. The raw data shows Farage 5 points ahead and has been weighted to manufacture this headline. That being said I don't think it will be a shoe in for him in that seat.
Alf Bentley Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 That thanet south poll is nonsense apparently. The raw data shows Farage 5 points ahead and has been weighted to manufacture this headline. That being said I don't think it will be a shoe in for him in that seat. UKIP reckon it's nonsense, but other pollsters disagree (as the article points out) and it was done by ComRes, one of the pollsters regularly quoted in the media. It's routine for different pollsters do these sort of "weighting" adjustments on various grounds - how likely people are to turn out and vote; how they voted previously etc. It might still be a rogue poll, of course, and I'd expect Farage to win, personally....but it could be quite tight, I reckon. Constituency polls will tell us quite a lot in the coming weeks, if the national situation remains too close to call. It could also have an impact on tactical voting.
sphericalfox Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Call me Mr. Cynical, y'know with an election around the corner but...
SMX11 Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Call me Mr. Cynical, y'know with an election around the corner but... Shows what a good PR man Cameron is. Maybe he should go back to PR after the election?
Frank to be Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Will be voting Green. They're the only party who offer a shot at a fair and equal society. I did vote for Lib Dems last time but they've turned out to be just like the tories, all in bed with the rich. UKIP are just racist, sexist, homophobic thugs. I like labour but not Ed Miliband, I don't think he has what's required to take what we deserve back from the banks and the rich and the tax avoiders. Greens all the way, let's have a tolerant society where we treat each other and animals with respect and share things out equally for a change. Can't be much worse than what we've got now.
The Longstop Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Will be voting Green. They're the only party who offer a shot at a fair and equal society. I did vote for Lib Dems last time but they've turned out to be just like the tories, all in bed with the rich. UKIP are just racist, sexist, homophobic thugs. I like labour but not Ed Miliband, I don't think he has what's required to take what we deserve back from the banks and the rich and the tax avoiders. Greens all the way, let's have a tolerant society where we treat each other and animals with respect and share things out equally for a change. Can't be much worse than what we've got now. . Parody I assume?
bovril Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 . Parody I assume? I thought the same thing about your blog.
lavrentis Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Tory/UKIP coalition. Urrgghh. I think purpleronnie would leave the country
Guest Bilo Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 I think purpleronnie would leave the country I'd be on the same plane.
The Longstop Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 I'd be on the same plane. More lefties that leave, the better for the economy.
Buce Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 More lefties that leave, the better for the economy. Yeah, coz none of pay tax, we're all just benefit cheats..
The Longstop Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Yeah, coz none of pay tax, we're all just benefit cheats.. Most lefties work in public sector, so their wages are paid from people's tax. We need wealth-generating jobs like the Tories have been creating. Read the blog and educate yourself.
sphericalfox Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Shows what a good PR man Cameron is. Maybe he should go back to PR after the election?
sphericalfox Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Most lefties work in public sector, so their wages are paid from people's tax. We need wealth-generating jobs like the Tories have been creating. Read the blog and educate yourself. Been a long boring weekend in the bedsit Moosey?
Guest Bilo Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 I wish you the best of luck in getting jobs generated without teachers, Tory Boy!
Stevosevic Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Bastards... David Cameron @David_Cameron 8m8 minutes ago #VoteConservative and we'll raise your tax-free allowance to £12.5k. We'll act on the 40p rate too - you'll only pay it once you earn £50k.
MooseBreath Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Been a long boring weekend in the bedsit Moosey? Had a lovely day outside in the garden today, you?
Frank to be Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Most lefties work in public sector, so their wages are paid from people's tax. We need wealth-generating jobs like the Tories have been creating. Read the blog and educate yourself. Most of the jobs the tories have 'created' are low paid, ultra-low productivity jobs that have come about through EU immigration. The only jobs you could credit the tories for are the ones they've given to their rich mates. The tory fixation with wealth makes me laugh, a) because the relentless pursuit of wealth has no benefit and b) because on average everyone is worse off under the tories anyway. What we need is to refocus on the important things in life, such as providing equal opportunities, a fair society, and looking after the weak and vulnerable. A vote for the tories is a vote for a select handful of people who you don't know and who don't care about you getting an even more unequal share of the things in life we're all entitled to.
Webbo Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Most of the jobs the tories have 'created' are low paid, ultra-low productivity jobs that have come about through EU immigration. The only jobs you could credit the tories for are the ones they've given to their rich mates. The tory fixation with wealth makes me laugh, a) because the relentless pursuit of wealth has no benefit and b) because on average everyone is worse off under the tories anyway. What we need is to refocus on the important things in life, such as providing equal opportunities, a fair society, and looking after the weak and vulnerable. A vote for the tories is a vote for a select handful of people who you don't know and who don't care about you getting an even more unequal share of the things in life we're all entitled to. Lets do all those things and just hope jobs appear out of thin air.
Frank to be Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Lets do all those things and just hope jobs appear out of thing air. Just because we stop serving a few false tory masters doesn't mean we'll stop doing anything. There will still be jobs, better paid jobs, jobs that actually contribute to rather than take away from the fabric of society.
Benguin Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 I' stuck for who to vote this time. I voted for the Liberal Democrats last time but my vote was founded on bad promises. Based on the debate last week I am even more lost. I don't think Cameron is doing a good job, I cant take Ed seriously. I thought Farage had some good points but unfortunately it was jumbled up with his Nazi views. If there was someone with the good parts of Farage minus all the Nazi crap then they'd get my vote. Think I'm going to skip this one because I can not make an informed choice.
Webbo Posted 6 April 2015 Posted 6 April 2015 Just because we stop serving a few false tory masters doesn't mean we'll stop doing anything. There will still be jobs, better paid jobs, jobs that actually contribute to rather than take away from the fabric of society. If you don't believe in people making money who is going to create the jobs?
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