2015 Election season ..........stuff it in here.

[Guest]

Is this Ed Miliband's version of 'We're all in it together'?

 

Sex appeal.

[Alf Bentley]

Match ratings for debate:

- Miliband 8: Calm, clear and assertive under a lot of pressure. Still too much plastic "sincerity" & repeated soundbites ("working people/families" x 100) but convincing overall. Sneaky to quote Farage's disowned NHS privatisation policy, but they all do it & it might be relevant. Challenged Sturgeon on her Scottish policies this time, but should have followed through & asked her to rule out another independence referendum within 5yrs (she was booed in the Scottish debate for not clearly ruling this out)

- Sturgeon 7.5: Good sharp delivery got points across well. Miliband put her on back foot at times, but probably a score draw.

- Bennett 7: Better than the first debate - clearer, more confident delivery. Got some distinctive points across (environment etc), but unlikely to have appealed beyond her natural core vote.

- Wood 6: I find her slow delivery offputting - points don't come across clearly. Still find her quite fanciable, though

- Farage 6: Got some sharp points across well, though mainly appealing to the converted. The formal, combative setting doesn't suit him - he comes across better 1-on-1 in informal interviews. Got too peevish & tetchy at times. Carswell would appeal better beyond traditional EU-&-immigration UKIP voters.

 

Only 4.5m people watched last night's debate (7m for the first one), so unlikely to have a dramatic effect on the polls. Especially as a lot of those 4.5m will be people who already know who they're going to vote for.

 

Slightly beneficial to Miliband as he had another chance to look a credible PM and not the hopeless geek he was supposed to be - and took it. Slightly disadvantageous to Cameron, allowing others a free hit, but unlikely to have a major impact. Clegg? Who?

 

Not sure what neutral viewers will have made of the 3 women constantly agreeing. Not one of them ever disagreed with anything another said, did they? Understandable for Sturgeon & Wood, as nationalists not in competition with one another, but the Greens will be standing against SNP and Plaid, I presume. At times, the 3 of them looked like a gang in a girls' school playground, getting together to pick on Miliband & Farage (and I say that as someone quite sympathetic to their views).

 

So far, Labour seems to be "winning the campaign" - but that doesn't mean they'll win the election. Was it 1987 or 1992 when Kinnock was widely seen as having run an impressive campaign, but still lost the election? 1987, I think. 

 

A second-hand female view (as it's mainly blokes on here): My wife was not a big fan of Miliband but reckons Red Ed will have come across very well to female viewers. Apparently, he was "respectful & courteous but assertive" in responding to attacks from the 3 women. She reckons that will go down very well.

 

Some interesting photos posted.... What is Leanne Wood looking at in Dan's photo?! She appears to be admiring Ed's trouser bulge!   

[Merging Cultures]

VOTE UKIP

They'll be lucky to win one seat but and some might say this is a vote wasted but in my opinion with our current electoral system every vote is wasted vote.

How could every vote be wasted?! That is an extremely odd comment.

[Guest Bilo]

We'll never know what would have happened if Labour had won in 2010. Maybe they'd have mismanaged things and increased the deficit - or maybe they'd have stimulated growth earlier, avoiding several years of flatlining and generating more tax for use in social spending or in deficit reduction. All we know is that Labour planned to halve the deficit, the Tories ridiculed this ambition, planned to eliminate it but ended up cutting it by just 38% (or 50% as a ratio of GDP).

 

Here's a debt/GDP graph comparing Greece to the Euro-zone: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis#/media/File:Greek_debt_and_EU_average_since_1977.png

Here's a debt/GDP graph comparing UK to France & Germany: https://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=ds22a34krhq5p_&met_y=gd_pc_gdp&idim=country:uk:de:fr&hl=en&dl=en

 

As you'll see, Greek debt was nearly 200% of GDP, twice as high as the Euro-zone average (just under 100%). UK debt in 2013 was close to the Euro-zone average and half as much as Greece - though higher than when the Tories took over. Interesting to note that the UK debt/GDP ratio under Labour was significantly lower than in France or Germany until the financial crisis struck.

 

You can speculate that Labour would have recklessly doubled the debt to Greek levels. I could speculate that Farage will eat black babies and Cameron will sell the NHS to North Korea, but I won't as I'd lose credibility, as you are doing.

 

Comparing the British situation in 2010 to Greece is just silly scaremongering, it makes for a nice headline though.

[L1HT]

24 hours on there is only one thing still blaring out from the debate for me.

 

Farage challenged Labour, Greens, Welsh and Scots to admit that some of the housing crisis (and it is), is due to the population growing by 300,00 a year.  Remember the 'Supply and Demand' talk. I've not re-watched it but I think he worded it like that, without mentioning the dreaded immigration word.  None of the other pannelists would agree that 300,00 new people to the country contributes to the lack of housing.  I watched in on the BBC News channel to watch 'the worm' if you know it, and it went right down.  Why? it is quite obviously the mathematical truth

[Guest Bilo]

We'd have a higher debt than Greece because our economy is much bigger.

 

Let's say there are two people. One is a millionaire whose annual business profits stand at around £10 million and the other is somebody on the average annual salary of £26,500 per annum.

 

The millionaire's debt stands at around £5 million while the debt of the latter is around £50,000, exactly 1% of the monies owed by the former. The millionaire is in a lot less financial trouble as his debt is around 50% of his annual income. The average wage earner is in a lot more financial trouble as his debt is double his annual income, despite the fact that the cash figure for his debt is tiny compared to the millionaire.

 

That, although simplified, is why you can't compare Greek and British debt like-for-like. The British economy in 2010 was the sixth largest in the world with a GDP of over $2.3 trillion, while the Greek economy stood at 32nd with a GDP of $300 billion, around a seventh of the British figure.

 

Greece has also suffered enormous levels of inflation, interest rises and spectacular national debt despite being bailed out by other Eurozone countries and introducing eyewatering levels of austerity. 

[Webbo]

We'd have a higher debt than Greece because our economy is much bigger.

 

Let's say there are two people. One is a millionaire whose annual business profits stand at around £10 million and the other is somebody on the average annual salary of £26,500 per annum.

 

The millionaire's debt stands at around £5 million while the debt of the latter is around £50,000, exactly 1% of the monies owed by the former. The millionaire is in a lot less financial trouble as his debt is around 50% of his annual income. The average wage earner is in a lot more financial trouble as his debt is double his annual income, despite the fact that the cash figure for his debt is tiny compared to the millionaire.

 

That, although simplified, is why you can't compare Greek and British debt like-for-like. The British economy in 2010 was the sixth largest in the world with a GDP of over $2.3 trillion, while the Greek economy stood at 32nd with a GDP of $300 billion, around a seventh of the British figure.

 

UK budget deficit 'to surpass Greece's as worst in EU'

European commission's spring forecasts put UK budget deficit this year at 12% of GDP – the highest in the European Union and worse than Treasury estimates

 

That's in percentage terms, as interpreted by the Guardian.

[lavrentis]

Think the winners of that debate were Miliband and Sturgeon.

[L1HT]

Miliband and Sturgeon who know that 300,000 new people in the country contributes to the housing crisis, but in the strange strange world we live in, where 'racism' includes telling the most simple of facts even without and opinion attached wont actually say it

[Guest Bilo]

 

That's in percentage terms, as interpreted by the Guardian.

 

 

Again though, this was after a massive bailout, austerity measures and ignores the gigantic national debt that Greece had incurred. It was evident that things needed to change, and we will of course never know for sure what would have happened if Labour had won the election in 2010, but pinning everything on that deficit figure in 2010 and saying we would have had an economy like Greece is probably a bit fanciful. 

[Guest Bilo]

Miliband and Sturgeon who know that 300,000 new people in the country contributes to the housing crisis, but in the strange strange world we live in, where 'racism' includes telling the most simple of facts even without and opinion attached wont actually say it

 

It's also an awkward fact that immigration has contributed considerably to the economic recovery - a failure of Tory policy has therefore, quite accidentally, helped to boost our economy.

[Webbo]

Again though, this was after a massive bailout, austerity measures and ignores the gigantic national debt that Greece had incurred. It was evident that things needed to change, and we will of course never know for sure what would have happened if Labour had won the election in 2010, but pinning everything on that deficit figure in 2010 and saying we would have had an economy like Greece is probably a bit fanciful. 

The EU commission didn't think so.

[L1HT]

Bilo you say immigration has contribued to economic recovery....but that is totally irrelevant to my point.  When the population grows by 300,000 we need 150,00 houses, 100,000 school places NOW! Next year it could be 50,000, year after 700,000, no planning can take place.  In the leaders debate no one would say that apart from the Welsh in debate one.  How can it be denied

[Guest Bilo]

Bilo you say immigration has contribued to economic recovery....but that is totally irrelevant to my point.  When the population grows by 300,000 we need 150,00 houses, 100,000 school places NOW! Next year it could be 50,000, year after 700,000, no planning can take place.  In the leaders debate no one would say that apart from the Welsh in debate one.  How can it be denied

 

Of course immigration needs to be controlled, but it's worth pointing out that new house building has slowed to a snail's pace and much new housing ends up in the hands of private landlords. 

 

The economic recovery is relevant because it's a key reason why people are coming here, the fact that there are jobs. 

 

The main things that need to happen are better border controls, more social housing and do something about the thousands of empty houses - perhaps charge more council tax for unoccupied dwellings.

[Guest Bilo]

I did not abuse people with mental health issues - merely suggested that if you genuinely believed your political blog had any significant impact on the election, that you were suffering from a form of delusion. I genuinely meant that, I'm not in the business of using mental health issues as a convenient smearing tactic.

 

I do, however, accept that calling you out on that publicly was less than tactful.

 

As somebody who has taught many children with a range of autism spectrum disorders, I would certainly never set out to insult somebody for their mental health disorder.

[Guest Bilo]

Also, signing up under multiple accounts while banned is in itself a breach of forum rules, irrespective of the behaviour shown while posting under those accounts.

 

I always thought it was, anyway.

[L1HT]

Which brings this conversation full circle to the key question.....how many new houses do we need?

[Guest Bilo]

Which brings this conversation full circle to the key question.....how many new houses do we need?

 

Enough to ensure buying as well as renting is accessible. 

 

I know Labour propose up to 200,000 new homes a year.

[L1HT]

So where do labour get 200,000 from, when the population can grow by 10,000 next year, or by 1million...who knows?  That is the point that all leaders refused to acknowledge in the debate

[Guest Bilo]

It's pretty unlikely that immigration will quadruple - it's at 260k at the moment.

[Rincewind]

There are many that cannot afford or will not be able to obtain a mortgage.The low paid on minimum wage or part time.As said above the houses will be bought by those who do have the money and rented out. I have seen that  there are proposals to limit renting council houses to five years. What will happen after five years? The agreement will end meaning that there will not be a limit to any increase as a sitting tenant. More profit for the landlord and more expense for the tenant who may be struggling on a minimum wage with a family to feed and clothe.

[Rincewind]

Don't have the stats in front of me but there are a fair number of Brits living abroad. And as the Doctor says a lot of those living here are students. If it was not for the stories of 'land of milk and honey' I doubt immigrants looking for a better life would come here because when thry arrive they find it not as they expected.

[Guest Bilo]

There are about 1m Brits living in Spain alone.

 

The nature of this migration annoyed Spain no end - there were a lot of retirees who gravitated towards the coastal areas and pushed up house prices, essentially anglicising them in the process with the Red Lion pubs and fish & chip shops. It's wrong to say that migration is a one way street.

 

Interestingly, some of these guys have been coming back to the UK in the past couple of years due largely to the Eurozone crisis.

 

Again, we didn't half dodge a bullet with the single currency.

[Rincewind]

Found this

 

[Strokes]

What has Brits abroad got to do with this debate? If anything it strengthens the argument for control across Europe if it is harming our relationship with our European mates. Nobody is suggesting we send all immigrants home, just that we have a policy that stop people coming here that offer nothing and a total cap to match our improvements in public services and housing.

I'm not sure you have to be right wing to believe in a fair immigration policy, this is not about colour or creed anymore. The freedom of movement act, whilst a wonderful idea, is not fit for purpose across Europe and needs abolishing.