CosbehFox

The penalty of doing so many grounds this Saturday - nearest new ground for the Cup is Ashton Curzon. Mossley is another option for a good trip, very pretty ground but I really can't be doing with 2hrs 30 in the motor.

San Siro is a must. It's a spaceship - architectural beauty and now very run down in areas. Both teams despite being huge big six types can make some noise there.

The singing section isn’t a success in terms of the existing season ticket holders but it’s certainly a success when you open ticket sales up to others with cup games etc. You can read from that what you want and make a good conclusion

Don’t disagree with that. I’d also say Wrocław is better as a summer city

Bournemouth literally played two left wingers aswell in the second half!

Thought he would have been ideal to bring on the right wing when we were under it a bit. Justin was effectively being doubled on. He was also an answer to the CM problem rather than bringing Soumare.

That's the nature of the expected points model. It's not a direct translation of xG scoreline - 3 pts for a win, 1 for a draw. The Understat figures differ - as the description below. I'm taking Bournemouth v Villa as an example https://understat.com/match/11883. "Chances" is worded a bit strange. It doesn't mean chances as it relates to shots, it represents the match outcome based on expected goals. So for this example, there was a 70% chance for a Bournemouth win, 17% chance of a draw, and 13% chance of a Villa win. These figures are calculated by replaying the match many times (probably about 10,000). You take the xG from each shot in the match and replay it. For example, Villa's goal has an xG of 0.43 so generate a random number between 0 and 1, if your generated number is less than or equal to 0.43 you consider it a goal. Once you do that for every shot you can determine whether your match was a Win, Draw, or Loss. You then repeat lots of times and can model the percentage chances of each outcome. Once you have these figures, you can use them to calculate xPTS. To Calculate Bournemouth's xPTS you take their win percentage multiplied by 3 points plus their draw percentage (1 point for a draw). (0.70 * 3) + 0.17 = 2.27 So the understat model allows for what you describe. Ie. what happens if all of the shots are we retaken and it brings up all the projections if teams were efficient. In short, an expected points tally is different to expected goals tally. That's often why the fairer comparison is the positioning in the expected points table compared to the actual position.

https://understat.com/league/EPL/2023 Expected points table from 23-24. Notably got all three relegated clubs correct - and the next three clubs; Manchester United, West Ham and Wolves. All three of those have had poor starts to the season. That's a perfect example of how it can predict performance and sense a trend for failure.

The article you shared doesn't mention expected points total. It's also a prediction from the beginning of the season rather than using statistical ongoing data. Professional clubs use the live data of xG etc to assess their performance 'as live'. The article discuss Opta's supercomputer which is based off an objective opinion 'the Opta Power ratings'; every team is given a score at the start of the season and then they add that alongside a likelihood of result predictions - that gives me a percentage for each position.

I'd hardly call it 'digging up for anything' - it's effectively what professional clubs use to rate and assess their own performance. It's a good evidence indicator. We will see how it plays out.

There's a fair few more off the central square. There's a long strip of bars underneath the railway arches. Bars such as Pinta, Szynkarnia, Graciarnia, AleBrowar are away from the square and reading CoG's beer preferences would fit him well. There is also HALA Świebodzki which is a huge railway arches food court/bar. Being the winter, Party Island/the pontoon bars won't be open. Really depends how CoG spends his days. Personally think Warsaw is great but it's a beast of a city in size and overly modern. Found Wroclaw more youthful as well slightly than most Polish cities. In terms of WW2, Wroclaw was Germany beforehand so its heavy Czech/German influence. I go Poznań in four weeks and Poles rate Wroclaw & Poznan as the two under-rated gems. Interested to see what its like but its become apparent its already a bit on its limp as a large city.

Actually enjoying having the occasional break - saves some pennies and a recharge from the madness

Forest are very much in the build of Nuno now. They will have some spells this season where they are mind numbing to watch but consistently give the big clubs a run for their money

At the same time on Saturday clubs with much smaller resources and staff did some really good ‘content’ around the subject

It doesn’t sound believable but the story actually adds up. Liverpool played Southampton in the FA Cup semi final at White Hart Lane in 1986. I know someone who was there who said it was utter chaos - from the journey back from White Hart Lane to Euston. The police entered Euston with police horses and they slipped because of the concrete floor. Blokes beating coppers and horses on the deck.

Doesn’t matter if he even touched it. He’s a play for the ball so it’s considered interference. You are correct about Bournemouth’s body language. More so what’s weird was that the lino signalled the arm out to indicate goal and then changed his mind! Then VAR stepped into confirm

Two easy 5k’s for me this week. Probably won’t bother with park run cos I’ll end up racing it rather than doing a steady 27/28min. Did 10k up and down a few hills to get the heart rate up but not sustained. Generally worked well - try to be strict with sleep and start carb loading Wednesday onwards

If you willing to travel a bit more, Abbey Park is very quick for a park run and the wider paths make it far less congested. Along with being a lap and a bit means you don’t have to re pass people at the back. I whipped around 24:05 yesterday and I’ve been nowhere near that sort of form recently

nice weather and a good result ensured Leicester was the busiest I’d seen it in a good while. Oddly went Walkabout - now I tell you what it’s better than Distillery and any other chain in the city. Tellies galore. A real solid effort for somewhere which should be shockingly shite. R&D was busting, good to see

Good to hear the BBBB rated high

It’s as much the fans as what’s on the pitch IMO. Fanbases are aging compounded by the ticket prices.

Senesi should have been off. A clear shirt pull but the game played on for about two minutes before the ball went dead. Ref forgot about it. Fifteen minutes later he hacked Fatawu down to finally get his yellow

He consistently ****s me off when he blames everyone but yesterday he was actually really good at talking to players and gesturing to relax etc.

Cooper in a nutshell. Actually got it spot on first half - the way we used Ayew stopped Lewis Cook taking control of the game. Two excellent passing moves saw a goal and a great chance. Then that second half was criminal. It wasn’t just low block. We didn’t utilise the counter attack until Fatawu came on - Bournemouth at that point didn’t have a proper full back on the pitch for ten minutes before. I ain’t asking for flowing football. I’m asking to get your wingers high and use the ball well on the transition

He won National League North with Tamworth last season. Overweight but a superb footballer